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Dublin mid west election 2020

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124

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    #92
    brick tamland
    Registered Users Posts: 1,435 ✭✭✭brick tamland


    Gino to get the Shinners transfers. FG to transfer to each other if one out 1st. Curran in trouble maybe?


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    #93
    Dodge
    Registered Users Posts: 10,167 ✭✭✭✭Dodge


    brick tamland wrote: »
    Gino to get the Shinners transfers. FG to transfer to each other if one out 1st. Curran in trouble maybe?

    Won’t be too many transfers from Ward to be fair

    Think it’ll be Curran getting that last seat ahead of Kenny unfortunately


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    #94
    Pherekydes
    Registered Users Posts: 16,114 ✭✭✭✭Pherekydes


    Higgins will take the FG seat, while Kenny outdips Curran on the line.

    SDs missed a great chance to take a seat here.

    Labour getting erased...


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    #95
    brick tamland
    Registered Users Posts: 1,435 ✭✭✭brick tamland


    Pherekydes wrote: »
    Higgins will take the FG seat, while Kenny outdips Curran on the line.

    SDs missed a great chance to take a seat here.

    Labour getting erased...

    I think it may be casserly. I think she may get gogarty transfers. (Presuming hes out 1st)


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    #96
    magicray
    Registered Users Posts: 853 ✭✭✭magicray


    I think Higgins transfers could go anywhere, she is popular in her home town but not really anywhere else so I would doubt her votes are from FG supporters

    I hope Kenny gets the 3rd seat, he is one of a few genuinely hard workers around here imo - think he has a good chance if the SF transfers go his way


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    #97
    duffman13
    Registered Users Posts: 8,946 ✭✭✭duffman13


    Pherekydes wrote: »
    Higgins will take the FG seat, while Kenny outdips Curran on the line.

    SDs missed a great chance to take a seat here.

    Labour getting erased...

    This election potentially bucks the trend but I was reading a piece about the vote mechanism and basically only 4 candidates who finished outside the top 5 first preference votes have ever got in on transfers. Its hugely interesting to see how it goes but if Curran loses a seat it be shocked. If SDs ran here they'd have got a decent vote but not sure if they'd have the numbers. Gogarty had a stinker really, that's potentially the end of him.

    Timmons should transfer well enough to FF but in contradiction to myself, I struggle to see a huge number of transfers going to Curran


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    #98
    Capt'n Midnight
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Results page.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020/results/#/national/dublin-mid-west

    Count 1 Quota 9,091
    Eoin Ó Broin, SF 11842
    Mark Ward, SF 7621
    John Curran, FF 4931
    Emer Higgins, FG 4487
    Gino Kenny, SOL-PBP 3572
    Vicki Casserly, FG 3501
    Paul Gogarty, IND 2950
    Peter Kavanagh, GP 2785
    Joanna Tuffy, LAB 1541
    Francis Timmons, IND 1103
    Caitríona Mcclean, FF 667
    David Gardiner, WP 452


    Ward only needs half of Ó Broin surplus to cross the line.

    FG combined vote is 7988 s
    Green combined vote is 5735 but transfer friendly

    Gino 3572 + Everyone else's vote of 3763 = 7335 but transfers will go all over the place , how many to Curran ?
    *Joanna Tuffy, LAB Francis Timmons, IND Caitríona Mcclean, FF David Gardiner, WP


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    #99
    r93kaey5p2izun
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,962 ✭✭✭r93kaey5p2izun


    Mark Ward elected.


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    #100
    Capt'n Midnight
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Count 3

    Eoin Ó Broin, SF Count 1 11,842
    Mark Ward, SF Count 2 9,808
    John Curran, FF + 17 4,997
    Emer Higgins, FG + 12 4,526
    Gino Kenny, SOL-PBP + 409 4,228
    Vicki Casserly, FG + 11 3,529
    Paul Gogarty, IND + 55 3,049
    Peter Kavanagh, GP + 69 2,924
    Joanna Tuffy, LAB + 26 1,599
    Francis Timmons, IND + 78 1,238
    Caitríona Mcclean, FF + 3 677
    David Gardiner, WP + 37


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    #101
    brick tamland
    Registered Users Posts: 1,435 ✭✭✭brick tamland


    Hard to call now.


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    #102
    average_runner
    Registered Users Posts: 12,845 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    brick tamland wrote: »
    Hard to call now.

    I can see Curran losing out. Kenny and Higgins look good but gogarty will get a big green vote if he can stay in.

    Casserly will pick up the gogarty vote also


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    #103
    brick tamland
    Registered Users Posts: 1,435 ✭✭✭brick tamland


    average_runner wrote: »
    I can see Curran losing out. Kenny and Higgins look good but gogarty will get a big green vote if he can stay in.

    Casserly will pick up the gogarty vote also

    FG will probably get a seat but which candidate im not sure. Can Gino get enough transfers to get past curran? Im not sure curran will transfer well


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    #104
    niallo32
    Registered Users Posts: 620 ✭✭✭niallo32


    brick tamland wrote: »
    FG will probably get a seat but which candidate im not sure. Can Gino get enough transfers to get past curran? Im not sure curran will transfer well

    Curran has picked up 520 transfers to around 70 each from Higgins and Casserly

    Gino gaining fast on Higgins


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    #105
    average_runner
    Registered Users Posts: 12,845 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    niallo32 wrote: »
    Curran has picked up 520 transfers to around 70 each from Higgins and Casserly

    Gino gaining fast on Higgins

    Yeah that was a ff candidate though, so was expected


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    #106
    antimatterx
    Registered Users Posts: 2,673 ✭✭✭antimatterx


    Kenny now in 4th.

    Although Higgins *should* be safe after transfers


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    #107
    Nika Bolokov
    Registered Users Posts: 651 ✭✭✭Nika Bolokov


    Poor Gino nearly gave up this morning but he's very much back in it the mix


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    #108
    average_runner
    Registered Users Posts: 12,845 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    Nika Bolokov wrote: »
    Poor Gino nearly gave up this morning but he's very much back in it the mix

    Yep, but the big transfers from fg still to come


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    #109
    brick tamland
    Registered Users Posts: 1,435 ✭✭✭brick tamland


    Does counting stop gor night at a certain point?


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    #110
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,133 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    I assume Gogarty and Kavanagh will have more Gino transfers though? Might still be close call


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    #111
    average_runner
    Registered Users Posts: 12,845 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    cherryghost wrote: »
    I assume Gogarty and Kavanagh will have more Gino transfers though? Might still be close call

    Would expect gogarty to go to vicki.
    Very slow at the counting.

    Still think Kenny and higgins will get in. Gogarty could nag fifth. Think Curran is in real trouble


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    #112
    duffman13
    Registered Users Posts: 8,946 ✭✭✭duffman13


    average_runner wrote: »
    Would expect gogarty to go to vicki.
    Very slow at the counting.

    Still think Kenny and higgins will get in. Gogarty could nag fifth. Think Curran is in real trouble

    Curran should transfer well from Kavanagh I think but it's a toss up really, I think he'll scrape over with Higgins, Gino is transfer friendly with Casserly as will Higgins be, so might be close yet but still leaning Curran and Higgins at this point


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    #113
    brick tamland
    Registered Users Posts: 1,435 ✭✭✭brick tamland


    average_runner wrote: »
    Would expect gogarty to go to vicki.
    Very slow at the counting.

    Still think Kenny and higgins will get in. Gogarty could nag fifth. Think Curran is in real trouble


    Not many between VC and PG. Gogarty may pass her with the green transfers


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    #114
    average_runner
    Registered Users Posts: 12,845 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    brick tamland wrote: »
    Not many between VC and PG. Gogarty may pass her with the green transfers

    All over for the night now.


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    #115
    r93kaey5p2izun
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,962 ✭✭✭r93kaey5p2izun


    So did they complete the 6th count or not?


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    #116
    IvySlayer
    Registered Users Posts: 17,187 ✭✭✭✭IvySlayer


    Count 6 is completed with Curran and Gino ahead of Casserly and Higgins

    John Curran - 5704
    Gino - 5115
    Higgins - 4879
    Casserly - 3835
    Gogarthy - 3784

    Would love if FG didn't get any seats, a clear message how incompetent they have been.


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    #117
    r93kaey5p2izun
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,962 ✭✭✭r93kaey5p2izun


    IvySlayer wrote: »
    Count 6 is completed with Curran and Gino ahead of Casserly and Higgins

    John Curran - 5704
    Gino - 5115
    Higgins - 4879
    Casserly - 3835
    Gogarthy - 3784

    Would love if FG didn't get any seats, a clear message how incompetent they have been.

    Gogarty's transfers will help Casserly and FG will get one in. Unfortunately. I'm very sorry for Gino but I don't think he'll make it.


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    #118
    Pherekydes
    Registered Users Posts: 16,114 ✭✭✭✭Pherekydes


    I still think Kenny can overtake Curran, and I don't think Casserly will catch Higgins.

    It'll be very tight in the end.


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    #119
    r93kaey5p2izun
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,962 ✭✭✭r93kaey5p2izun


    Hold on - what about Kavanagh?


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    #120
    Dodge
    Registered Users Posts: 10,167 ✭✭✭✭Dodge


    Vivian Ashy Attic wrote: »
    Hold on - what about Kavanagh?

    Kavanagh has just been eliminated. His transfers are up next


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    #121
    r93kaey5p2izun
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,962 ✭✭✭r93kaey5p2izun


    I think Curran will get a good chunk of Kavanagh's transfers. It may also help Gogarty pass Casserly, but that will just ensure Higgins comes in on her elimination.


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