General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

easypazz wrote: »

I think FG will quietly accept defeat, rebuild and bide their time.

Nobody can fix all the issues, and the promises this year of houses, nurses, guards, free everything, solve everything will come back to haunt FF/SF.

This.

This election is reminding me of Labour back in 2011.
SF will suffer the same fate of over promising in a few years time.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Are Leo and Michael going to come down off the fence and discuss a C&S?

That would be the very very last option, once all others have been ruled out.

If SF do well in this election, they need to step up. Otherwise they are the same ol SF, the party of protest and no action.

I know there is a narrative from some that FF/FG should just join forces and give SF a free run at it. It isnt going to be happening anytime soon.

Deleted User wrote: »

Pity Pearse Doherty or Cullinane weren't representing SF.

SF wanted in on the party leader debate, they got it!

quokula wrote: »

Hopefully that leads to a boost for some genuine parties of the left like Labour or SDs.

More I read about the SD's, the more they seem like a good punt for a minority party but they arent running any candidates in my region so

Gunmonkey wrote: »

SF wanted in on the party leader debate, they got it!



More I read about the SD's, the more they seem like a good punt for a minority party but they arent running any candidates in my region so

Same here.

Its a shame they can't field more candidates, would be better than some of the headbangers up for election.

markodaly wrote: »

That would be the very very last option, once all others have been ruled out.

If SF do well in this election, they need to step up. Otherwise they are the same ol SF, the party of protest and no action.

I know there is a narrative from some that FF/FG should just join forces and give SF a free run at it. It isnt going to be happening anytime soon.

What does 'step up' mean?

Step up like the comfy seat merchants of the Greens and Labour etc?

Not a hope I would say. They will make demands and if Michael doesn't agree then it's back to the country we go and see how the electorate feel about it.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What does 'step up' mean?

Step up like the comfy seat merchants of the Greens and Labour etc?

Not a hope I would say. They will make demands and if Michael doesn't agree then it's back to the country we go and see how the electorate feel about it.

They can demand all their want, but if the country sees them going into negotiations with their usual bluster and it all falls down without agreement, leading to another election, they will be punished and severly punished at that.

They will be cast as the angry protest vote, but who are not interested in government unless its on their terms only.

SF are kinda stuck either way now. If they make gains and dont make very credible efforts to form a coalition with FF then they will lose seats next time out.
Once of course they do go in and we can see that their 65k euro houses are not real, like much of their manifesto, their anti-establishment vote will go off somewhere else.
SF core vote is about 10%, the recent gains is nothing to do with SF being SF, its to do with them not being FF or FG.

No more sitting on the fence, its time for senior hurling now.

NIMAN wrote: »

Its a shame they can't field more candidates, would be better than some of the headbangers up for election.

They seemed a very attractive alternative party to me 4 years ago with Stephen Donnelly leading well. Now he has jumped ship and they seemed to have lost all vision and momentum.

I thought MM was by far the worst performance, he had years to prepare an argument to questions on why they propped up a FG government and then walked himself into it by saying the EU top brass and governments across Europe had changed during the Brexit process so there was now no excuse to continue with FG.

He didn't seem to have any concrete answers to the key issues on housing & healthcare

markodaly wrote: »

They can demand all their want, but if the country sees them going into negotiations with their usual bluster and it all falls down without agreement, leading to another election, they will be punished and severly punished at that.

With MM and all that he has said?

Have you guys not learned from the polls, people are not fools.

They will be cast as the angry protest vote, but who are not interested in government unless its on their terms only.

SF are kinda stuck either way now. If they make gains and dont make very credible efforts to form a coalition with FF then they will lose seats next time out.
Once of course they do go in and we can see that their 65k euro houses are not real, like much of their manifesto, their anti-establishment vote will go off somewhere else.
SF core vote is about 10%, the recent gains is nothing to do with SF being SF, its to do with them not being FF or FG.

No more sitting on the fence, its time for senior hurling now.

again.

In your scenario if they finish first or second and FF refuse to have talks, then FF will take the blame. Simple as.
If FF fold and enter talks and don't agree to deliver some of what SF want then it's back to the people. You won't be seeing whipping boys and girls like the Greens and Labour here imo.

SF's ambition is to eclipse FG and FF. They know they have to deliver if they enter into a coalition.

It's not what I see happening if the polls are borne out by the way. I think we will see seismic things happening between FF and FG first.

For now...let's wait and see what happens on Saturday.

1. Spoiled votes don't affect the result. As far as affecting the result of the election is concerned, casting a spoiled vote is the same as not voting at all.

2. But the number of spoiled votes is counted and published in the election results. So you might think that by spoiling your vote you are at least registering a protest that will be recorded in some way, and somebody might take note of it.

3. But a vote can be spoiled by accident, and in fact probably the great majority of spoiled votes are mistakes, not protests. So the spoiled vote tally is not generally taken as an indicator of dissatisfaction/protest. So as a mechanism for registering a protest, spoiling your vote is not very clear or effective.

4. You can of course spoil your vote in a way that indicates very clearly that this is a protest, not a mistake, e.g. by writing your frank opinion of the candidates across the ballot paper. But the only people who will ever see this are the clerk who counts the pile of votes with your vote in it, and the tallymen who observe the count, and they don't care very much about your protest.