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General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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  • #2102
    hotmail.com
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,435 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    Worth noting that in the same poll four years ago, DHR also recorded 4%, so caveat emptor.

    Irish have a habit of voting in an independent at one election and then dumping them out the next for no apparent reason.

    This poll confirms again the SF trend. A few weeks ago, SF were contemplating losing this seat!


  • #2103
    Sir Oxman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,492 ✭✭✭Sir Oxman


    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    Worth noting that in the same poll four years ago, DHR also recorded 4%, so caveat emptor.


    Yeah but the other one was on 33% then!


  • #2104
    cameramonkey
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,220 ✭✭✭cameramonkey


    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    Worth noting that in the same poll four years ago, DHR also recorded 4%, so caveat emptor.


    4 years ago MHR got 25.7 and Danny got 12.6 so between the two they had about 38%. Danny got nearly 4000 transfer from the brother to get him over the line. Their combined % in the poll before the election was 37 so they managed to split the vote well. This time around the poll shows them on a combined % of 26%, that makes things a lot tighter for them. The quota will be somewhere around 14,000, 26% gives them about 21,000 votes between them. They need 7000 transfers to get the MHR over the line.


  • #2105
    sid waddell
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,664 ✭✭✭sid waddell


    hotmail.com wrote: »
    Irish have a habit of voting in an independent at one election and then dumping them out the next for no apparent reason.
    I'm sure there have been a few but I can't recall too many of such. Jerry Cowley in Mayo was one. Katherine Zappone will probably be another one this time.

    But certainly not of the rural, rabid populist ex-FF/FG type. Once they're in, they're in pretty much for good.

    Healy Rae x 2, Lowry, Mattie McGrath, Noel Grealish, Boxer Moran, Fitzmaurice, Naughten, these guys will never lose. Collins in Cork South West is probably another in that vein. Neil Blaney was the original of the species.

    If Danny Healy Rae lost it would still be a massive shock, but maybe there will actually come a time when the Healy Raes finally bite off more than they can chew.


  • #2106
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 41,266 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    funkey_monkey wrote: »
    As an outsider to this election, is there any chance of Simon Coveney somehow remaining in position for the brexit talks or will whoever come in want that position as a top role?
    Just wondering if there will be any continuity in regards to Irelands brexit team in the forthcoming trade talks stage.

    Do people think he has done well? Personally I think he comes across very well whenever I've heard him speak and I see him as a better leader than Leo who does not appear to have the mannerisms/characteristics of a leader.

    It would be interesting if SF got Coveneys current role as that would mean they would have a seat on two sides of the table up up at Stormont and I'm not sure how that would play out.

    If FG are able to stay in government then I think that he's a cert to be involved in the negotiations that will happen this year. If it's FF then presumably it'll be Lisa chambers and whoever would fill the foreign affairs portfolio in FF.

    I think personally that he had FG in government can be rightly praised for what they were apart of. I think he has from what I've seen, a better ability to get into the meat of the role he has.


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  • #2107
    corkie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,425 ✭✭✭corkie


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  • #2108
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,256 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Looks like TIpp election might go ahead due to fears the entire result could be challenged.

    I thought Mattie might have a case yesterday. Seems wrong to me to cancel it.


  • #2109
    NIMAN
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,476 ✭✭✭✭NIMAN


    I'll watch to hear the same answers again.

    I fully expect Leo and Micheal to gang up on MLMD and try to discredit SF as they are running scared.


  • #2110
    c.p.w.g.w
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,990 ✭✭✭c.p.w.g.w


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    Looks like TIpp election might go ahead due to fears the entire result could be challenged.

    I thought Mattie might have a case yesterday. Seems wrong to me to cancel it.

    Whats the issue?


  • #2111
    Zetor19
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 155 ✭✭Zetor19


    Hopefully marylou gives it back with interest to the d4/rte/tans.


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  • #2112
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    c.p.w.g.w wrote: »
    Whats the issue?

    AG reportedly received legal advice that voting in all constituencies must be held within 30 days of dissolution.

    https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1224799886152957955


  • #2113
    sid waddell
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,664 ✭✭✭sid waddell


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    Looks like TIpp election might go ahead due to fears the entire result could be challenged.

    I thought Mattie might have a case yesterday. Seems wrong to me to cancel it.

    I think what happens in Britain is that if a party-affiliated candidate dies the election is put back, but if an independent candidate dies, the election goes ahead.

    Makes you think though what would have happened if it had been one of the Healy Raes, because they're almost a party in themselves, and would surely have had another family member to take the place of a hypothetical deceased candidate, or would have been demanding such at any rate.


  • #2114
    Phoebas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,371 ✭✭✭Phoebas


    We could we swapping Simon Coveney for David Cullinane.


  • #2115
    charlie14
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,709 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    blanch152 wrote: »
    Will Sinn Fein step up to the plate and agree a Confidence and Supply Arrangement?

    Why do you see the onus on FG only?


    It is not up to Sinn Fein to offer a Confidence and Supply Agreement as with only 42 candidates running they are unlikely to be the largest party.


    It will be up to the largest party to approach a party if the numbers work for a C&SA, or one of either FF and FG to propose a coalition with Sinn Fein.

    That is if FG and FF do not agree a coalition government, which is highly unlikely imo.


  • #2116
    Water John
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,264 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Well who then wrote the Law saying, if a candidate dies after nomination closes, the process has to be repeated? One Law doesn't sync with the other.


  • #2117
    easypazz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,346 ✭✭✭easypazz


    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    AG reportedly received legal advice that voting in all constituencies must be held within 30 days of dissolution.

    https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1224799886152957955

    What if there are red alert storm warning? Unlikely but in theory possible.


  • #2118
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 9,106 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


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  • #2119
    Sierra Oscar
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,696 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    Up to one million potential viewers apparently. This is going to be a big one.


  • #2120
    boardise
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,664 ✭✭✭boardise


    charlie14 wrote: »
    If that was to happen and Martin didn`t go with SF there wuld most likely be another election.
    If that happens, while SF might improve their seat numbers FG would most likely get a real hammering losing voters to FF.

    A rock and a hard place for FG.

    But if FG lose votes and seats again -they can correctly say to the electorate ''we get the message -you want us out of government so we're off to the opposition benches to regroup . Oh -and good luck with the other lads.


  • #2121
    blanch152
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,111 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    boardise wrote: »
    But if FG lose votes and seats again -they can correctly say to the electorate ''we get the message -you want us out of government so we're off to the opposition benches to regroup . Oh -and good luck with the other lads.


    That is what will happen next week.


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  • #2122
    charlie14
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,709 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    boardise wrote: »
    But if FG lose votes and seats again -they can correctly say to the electorate ''we get the message -you want us out of government so we're off to the opposition benches to regroup . Oh -and good luck with the other lads.


    They can.
    But if it results in another GE do you think they will not be asked on the doorsteps by their own supporters why they did not reciprocate with a C&S Arrangement rather than their being another GE where SF are highly likely to end up as the biggest party?


  • #2123
    Sierra Oscar
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,696 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    boardise wrote: »
    But if FG lose votes and seats again -they can correctly say to the electorate ''we get the message -you want us out of government so we're off to the opposition benches to regroup . Oh -and good luck with the other lads.

    So true and there are plenty in Fine Gael who would be happy with such an outcome rather than trying to cobble together a shaky Government. A time to rebuild in opposition can be a good thing. Look at Fianna Fáil.

    Also, the next Government could face plenty of its own difficulties. There are plenty of warning signs when it comes to the global economy.


  • #2124
    easypazz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,346 ✭✭✭easypazz


    Expect michal daddy drove a bus and bought a house line next


  • #2125
    Bishop of hope
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,394 ✭✭✭Bishop of hope


    charlie14 wrote: »
    They can.
    But if it results in another GE do you think they will not be asked on the doorsteps by their own supporters why they did not reciprocate with a C&S Arrangement rather than their being another GE where SF are highly likely to end up as the biggest party?

    Leo has just said he'd be happy, albeit as a last resort, to do a C&S deal with FF.


  • #2126
    sporina
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,144 ✭✭✭sporina


    So, with the upcoming election, I cannot see anyone I would like to vote for..

    In such a case, which is worse, to just not vote or to spoil your vote?

    I am aware of the fact that people died for us to be able to vote etc.. but I don't wanna vote for someone just for the sake of it.. are spoilt votes counted as such?


  • #2127
    Kickstart1.3
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 186 ✭✭Kickstart1.3


    Bomb and bullets lady isn't doing too well


  • #2128
    charlie14
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,709 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Bishop of hope wrote: »
    Leo has just said he'd be happy, albeit as a last resort, to do a C&S deal with FF.


    If it is a case of FF ending up with most seats, I couldn`t see he really had many other options.



    Other than a coalition with SF that is.


  • #2129
    Gringo180
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,205 ✭✭✭Gringo180


    Kickstart1.3 wrote: »
    Bomb and bullets lady isn't doing too well

    Not as bad as Fine Fail And Fine Gael has done in power for the last few decades.


  • #2130
    imme
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,200 ✭✭✭imme


    There is nothing for it OP but to run yourself.

    You could be the best thing ever for Ireland!

    A spoiled vote has no value whatsoever and your 'message' if that's what you

    want to write on a ballot or whatever 'message' whichever you want to send to the

    establishment/government/people or whatever doesn't go anywhere or do anything.

    You can do it, Sporina for government.


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  • #2131
    sporina
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,144 ✭✭✭sporina


    imme wrote: »
    There is nothing for it OP but to run yourself.

    You could be the best thing ever for Ireland!

    A spoiled vote has no value whatsoever and your 'message' if that's what you

    want to write on a ballot or whatever 'message' whichever you want to send to the

    establishment/government/people or whatever doesn't go anywhere or do anything.

    You can do it, Sporina for government.

    are you drunk?
    i thought i could get a sensible sincere answer here


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