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Property Market 2020

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    #452
    Giblet
    Registered Users Posts: 11,977 ✭✭✭✭Giblet


    car_radio19834 wrote: »
    What's a single person supposed to do to afford a house?

    Earn enough and save enough to afford it.


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    #453
    car_radio19834
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 247 ✭✭car_radio19834


    Giblet wrote: »
    Earn enough and save enough to afford it.

    Earn 42k


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    #454
    Giblet
    Registered Users Posts: 11,977 ✭✭✭✭Giblet


    car_radio19834 wrote: »
    Earn 42k

    A mortgage calculator would help as banks generally don't deviate too much from them anyway. Depending on where you are living it might be enough or you might need to save a lot.


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    #455
    LJ12345
    Registered Users Posts: 123 ✭✭LJ12345


    awec wrote: »
    The 20% deposit requirement is not to prevent a crash, it's to guard against negative equity in the event of prices going down. If you had a 100% mortgage you are very exposed to being in negative equity, since any drop in prices will instantly see you in the red.

    But 20% for first time buyers is pretty unrealistic. Having to save 20% of the value of a house totally in cash, while simultaneously forking out record high rents, is going to be something only the very fortunate can do. Median house price in Dublin is something like 350,000, so the cash requirements for a deposit would be 70,000 if they stuck with 20%.

    Second time buyers are in a completely different position, since they've been paying a mortgage instead of rent. They have significantly more assets than FTBs. They in theory can have equity in their house that goes toward the deposit for any future purchases.

    I do get what you’re saying, and I stand corrected, what should have been typed was ‘I don’t understand how it’s supposed to prevent the sh*t hitting the fan if another housing crash happens’ but it’s the 3.5x LTI requirement (ignoring exceptions) which will stabilise the market (it’s no longer the 7/8 salary multiples mortgages people were getting their hands on back in 2006 - thank god). The deposit split is prejudiced towards the younger cohort of buyers and leaves those more desperate and getting older who were stung and got out of the market still renting and completely stuck... it’s great for those who have the equity to bring forward to their new home when they move but I’d like to see a kinder approach to those who haven’t an existing home or who are stuck in every sense because they can’t sell up as then can’t buy again due to not having the required 20% deposit. I’m a second time buyer, grateful to have got our house just before the central bank brought in the new 20% deposit rules and we only needed 10%. We didn’t have 20% and we were expecting our first child so possibly would still have been renting now and really struggling in the current market. I’m just shocked at the unfairness of it, and that STB need 1/5th of the purchase price of a home to be able to buy. I’m sure it’s affected a lot of lives.


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    #456
    JamesMason
    Registered Users Posts: 152 ✭✭JamesMason


    car_radio19834 wrote: »
    What's a single person supposed to do to afford a house?
    Vote


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    #457
    Eric Cartman
    Registered Users Posts: 26,282 ✭✭✭✭Eric Cartman


    JamesMason wrote: »
    Vote

    If he works theres nobody to vote for who can effectively increase the money in his pocket or reduce the cost of a house.

    If he doesn't work theres loads of people promising free gafs though.


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    #458
    JamesMason
    Registered Users Posts: 152 ✭✭JamesMason


    Eric Cartman wrote: »
    If he works theres nobody to vote for who can effectively increase the money in his pocket or reduce the cost of a house.

    If he doesn't work theres loads of people promising free gafs though.
    Is there anyone who might level the playing field?


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    #459
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,279 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    JamesMason wrote: »
    Is there anyone who might level the playing field?

    Nope- none of the political parties have policies which are viewed as favouring the ordinary tax paying working member of the public. Both FF and FG have admitted that any tax reform plans they have are subject to revision after the election based on a number of different factors- not least of which will be who they end up going into coalition with and what they have to promise to buy the support of their junior member in government.

    Best bet is to rule out anyone who is definitely not going to advance policies that appeal to you- or are going to cost you extra money, rule out nutcases, and whoever is left- toss them in a hat and vote in order of preference.........

    There really is no-one out there to support the average person- or advance their wish to buy a dwelling (if they so wish to do so).


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    #460
    ZX7R
    Registered Users Posts: 3,427 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    JamesMason wrote: »
    Is there anyone who might level the playing field?

    None of the big 3 party's plans are workable in reality.
    One independent I asked, straight out what would they try and do.
    Interestingly they said they would consantrate on tax relief at source.
    Try and bring down repayments for people.
    Also housing list take away first refusal.
    Other than that they straight out said nothing Will really help.
    Replys I got to my questions:
    Work force is not big enough to meet the demand for new builds required.
    Can't cap house prices some eu law.
    Changing zoned lands will end up too experience due to taxes imposed for CC
    No real way to fix it in reality


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    #461
    JamesMason
    Registered Users Posts: 152 ✭✭JamesMason


    ZX7R wrote: »
    None of the big 3 party's plans are workable in reality.
    One independent I asked, straight out what would they try and do.
    Interestingly they said they would consantrate on tax relief at source.
    Try and bring down repayments for people.
    Also housing list take away first refusal.
    Other than that they straight out said nothing Will really help.
    Replys I got to my questions:
    Work force is not big enough to meet the demand for new builds required.
    Can't cap house prices some eu law.
    Changing zoned lands will end up too experience due to taxes imposed for CC
    No real way to fix it in reality
    It will be something from outside that causes a change. And there would be very little any of those in power can do about it.


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    #462
    Bargain_Hound
    Registered Users Posts: 521 ✭✭✭Bargain_Hound


    SozBbz wrote: »
    I've friends who did this.

    Bought a new build in a commuter county but couldn't hack the lifestyle (especially the commute) and sold up and bought a 2 up 2 down right in the city center - night and day scenario.

    Bought in 2017 and sold a year later. They struggled to get back what they paid and it was very stressful for them. I think the accepted an offer slightly under what they paid and when you factor in additional buying and selling costs, they definitely cost themselves money going for the new shiny house only to regret it such a short time later.

    I'm on of these people who did the very same for the same reasons and one or two others. Lost a lot through fees, furnishings etc., but miraculously didn't loose on house sale price which made up for the other losses.

    The frustrating thing about the term 'Second Time Buyers' is that we are all bundled together under the same label regardless of our situations or intentions. The system could allow of flexibility here but unlikely that would ever happen.


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    #463
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    JamesMason wrote: »
    It will be something from outside that causes a change. And there would be very little any of those in power can do about it.

    The change outside of the control of politicians in Ireland will come from a US economic slowdown or crash, affecting multinational activity in Ireland meaning;

    - Less demand for rentals as the staff of the multinationals move with the opportunities arising elsewhere. These staff do not have a stake in Irish property anyway as they are renting.
    - Build-to-rent blocks of apartments being sold off due to the returns from rent not being worth it for the institutionals or else the institutionals have liquidity concerns due to the economic slowdown and need to realise their positions.

    In terms of those looking to buy, demand is far outstripping supply so while there may be reduced demand as a result of the slowdown, I do not think it would be so bad as to outstrip supply. As such, purchase prices of property should not crash. At the top end of the market, a natural price correction is likely irrespective of an economic crash as the affordability determinant (i.e. 3.5 times salary) means that it is not sustainable. That being said, the 3.5 times borrowing may be raised over the next decade!


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    #464
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    The change outside of the control of politicians in Ireland will come from a US economic slowdown or crash, affecting multinational activity in Ireland meaning;

    - Less demand for rentals as the staff of the multinationals move with the opportunities arising elsewhere. These staff do not have a stake in Irish property anyway as they are renting.
    - Build-to-rent blocks of apartments being sold off due to the returns from rent not being worth it for the institutionals or else the institutionals have liquidity concerns due to the economic slowdown and need to realise their positions.

    In terms of those looking to buy, demand is far outstripping supply so while there may be reduced demand as a result of the slowdown, I do not think it would be so bad as to outstrip supply. As such, purchase prices of property should not crash. At the top end of the market, a natural price correction is likely irrespective of an economic crash as the affordability determinant (i.e. 3.5 times salary) means that it is not sustainable. That being said, the 3.5 times borrowing may be raised over the next decade!

    Baby boom in the naughties (starting to slow now) all these kiddies need a place to live.
    people living longer starving the supply
    Government action in the last decade or two starving supply
    More Foreign Fulture funds snapping up property due to the rents available here which is starving supply
    The irish corpo tax ethos which the EU cannot change will attract more foreign investment meaning more people need to live here
    England leaving the EU will mean other EU nationals and from elsewhere will now go to the only English speaking country in the EU for work a.k. Ireland as apposed to England

    To me with Brexit certainty as in they are gone and the G.E coming into play I reckon we are in for a bounce this year. Every party is promising more for FTBs which historically have always pushed prices up. I could be wrong but i see the fundamentals are there for this.


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    #465
    OwlsZat
    Registered Users Posts: 1,510 ✭✭✭OwlsZat


    A good friend of mine pays his rent for an upmarket Dublin apartment to a woman who's without doubt an addict. Can barley standup collecting the rent. Anyways, she got the apt through social housing. What awful policy.


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    #466
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,279 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    OwlsZat wrote: »
    A good friend of mine pays his rent for an upmarket Dublin apartment to a woman who's without doubt an addict. Can barley standup collecting the rent. Anyways, she got the apt through social housing. What awful policy.

    Let me get this straight- she got the apartment through social housing (somehow) and is letting it rather than living in it- in order to generate an income flow to fund a drug habit? Seems rather far fetched?


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    #467
    Zenify
    Registered Users Posts: 861 ✭✭✭Zenify


    fliball123 wrote: »
    The irish corpo tax ethos which the EU cannot change will attract more foreign investment meaning more people need to live here

    No, **** is about to hit the fan with this. This is changing, it is going to happen very soon. We should know what is happening by the end of the year and it will be implemented soon after that.

    It's now out of the hands of the EU, the world is changing how it taxes big companies.

    I know some people working for the big tech companies and they said moving is an absolute pain in the arse. So they won't be leaving straight away but they probably won't be expanding and slowly wind down.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/oecd-confident-on-digital-tax-deal-as-france-takes-swipe-at-ireland-1.4149005


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    #468
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Zenify wrote: »
    No, **** is about to hit the fan with this. This is changing, it is going to happen very soon. We should know what is happening by the end of the year and it will be implemented soon after that.

    It's now out of the hands of the EU, the world is changing how it taxes big companies.

    I know some people working for the big tech companies and they said moving is an absolute pain in the arse. So they won't be leaving straight away but they probably won't be expanding and slowly wind down.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/oecd-confident-on-digital-tax-deal-as-france-takes-swipe-at-ireland-1.4149005

    The sh1t has been hitting the fan for the last 3/4 years and the only things countries can do is compete with our corpo tax. The EU have been trying to force Ireland to change its corpo tax rates since it put it at its lower rate and has not been able to. Now there may be something with regards to having a company taxing income in the source country and it will take some away. The double irish is gone. I cant see any big tech companies leaving Ireland anytime soon as long as the corpo tax is as low as it is.. But I could be wrong


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    #469
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,279 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    fliball123 wrote: »
    The sh1t has been hitting the fan for the last 3/4 years and the only things countries can do is compete with our corpo tax. The EU have been trying to force Ireland to change its corpo tax rates since it put it at its lower rate and has not been able to. Now there may be something with regards to having a company taxing income in the source country and it will take some away. The double irish is gone. I cant see any big tech companies leaving Ireland anytime soon as long as the corpo tax is as low as it is.. But I could be wrong

    Its not just the headline rate of corporation tax- its all the credits and allowances companies are given too. For example- France's rate of corporation tax is currently set at 31%- however when you factor all the other deductions companies are allowed to use in France into the equation- the effective rate of tax on companies in France is actually lower than in Ireland (our rate of corporation tax being 12.5%). Its astounding that France (and other countries) can actually undercut Ireland- despite the vast differential in corporation tax rates- however, they can...…...


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    #470
    OwlsZat
    Registered Users Posts: 1,510 ✭✭✭OwlsZat


    The_Conductor wrote: »
    Let me get this straight- she got the apartment through social housing (somehow) and is letting it rather than living in it- in order to generate an income flow to fund a drug habit? Seems rather far fetched?

    Believe what ya like. She got the apartment through social housing and has chosen to let it out as an income. I was inferring a drug problem and being honest she may have none. Her meek and unkept demeanor could be for any number of reasons.


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    #471
    odyssey06
    Registered Users Posts: 28,464 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    OwlsZat wrote: »
    Believe what ya like. She got the apartment through social housing and has chosen to let it out as a income. I was inferring a drug problem and being honest she may have none. Her meek and unkept demeanor could be for any number of reasons.

    Wasn't there a murder case or something and the 'tenant' on HAP was living in Spain and sub-letting the apartment? Somewhere out by Baggot Street.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



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    #472
    handlemaster
    Registered Users Posts: 6,003 ✭✭✭handlemaster


    Hows the year started as regards asking prices ? I quick trawl through daft looks like prices are up to me..


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    #473
    JamesMason
    Registered Users Posts: 152 ✭✭JamesMason


    handlemaster wrote: »
    Hows the year started as regards asking prices ? I quick trawl through daft looks like prices are up to me..
    But are they realistic asking prices?


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    #474
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 18,749 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    The estate agent who handles the house I rent told me about a house he was supposed to have on the market next week, asking 420k very reasonable knowing the local market.
    The sellers have decide to go with another agent, it's now on at 450k, very over priced!
    The sellers are obviously not looking at the local market themselves or else feel their house is better then all the others!


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    #475
    rosmoke
    Registered Users Posts: 416 ✭✭rosmoke


    I honestly just stopped looking. It's beyond ridiculous.


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    #476
    Dolbhad
    Registered Users Posts: 782 ✭✭✭Dolbhad


    handlemaster wrote: »
    Hows the year started as regards asking prices ? I quick trawl through daft looks like prices are up to me..


    I’ve seen an increase in listing prices in Cork. I’ve seen one recently and it’s a standard 3 bed semi in an estate that’s listed for the same price that. A 4 bed semi was sold for last year and it is not in the best condition. Maybe sellers think with exemptions in January kicking in there is more money. But I don’t think exemptions are running out any more. We were able to renew one end of the year.


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    #477
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    Not to veer too far off topic into economic speculation, but you have raised a key point on Brexit and the impact the wider economic and political climate will have on the market. The asset management sector appears to be in bubble territory which is particularly evidenced by the hyper valuations of tech companies (Google, Facebook, Microsoft etc.) - the bubble arises from the demand for investment products which reference the performance of the equities of these companies (regulators cannot even measure how deep the rabbit hole goes), meaning an increase in the share price of these tech companies results in an increase in the value of an investment which directly or indirectly takes exposure to such companies. The concerns that there is a bubble is seen in regulatory publications being issued at the moment (calling for greater scrutiny into the shadow banking industry).

    Of course, while the going is good, everyone has FOMO and wants a piece of the pie so no one knows when to press stop with their appetite for investment products which reference the performance of these big tech companies. The nature of the bubble is that no one knows what will cause it to go pop, when it will go pop and whether they would be impacted (their managers would tell them that they are satisfied with the liquidity of the investments).

    Notwithstanding all of this, to take it back to Irish property - the institutional investors are building offices which are then being sold or let to the likes of Facebook, Google etc. and the institutional investors are also building apartment blocks to rent to the employees of these companies.

    Therefore, if the asset management bubble pops, the hyper valuations of these tech companies could potentially take a hit meaning, at the very least, a freeze on expansion and in worst case scenarios, large job losses (most of these workers are non-Irish and likely are renting so would have no stake in Irish property). The institutional investors would be left with apartment blocks which cannot be rented out or at least not rented out without significant drops in asking prices for rent and a lot of the shiny offices will sit idle. They would be the big losers in the property market in such a scenario. Meanwhile, Irish people are only limited to borrowing 3 1/2 times their salaries so have not lost the run of themselves and over-leveraged beyond their means (most likely). Accordingly, the impact of this potential bubble popping would likely not cause seismic shocks to Irish property prices.

    This Indo article this morning gives an idea of where the vulnerabilities in the Irish property market are - i.e. The institutional investors are the ones most likely to be burned.

    https://m.independent.ie/business/pension-funds-hit-amid-fears-property-now-overvalued-38912574.html

    Aviva and Irish Life recently marked down the value of their property funds due to an "unusually high level of withdrawals from the funds". However, they have also said that there is no need to sell property due to liquidity concerns as of yet. Notwithstanding that, "Aviva said it moved the fund from "an acquisition to a disposal basis" with effect from Wednesday, which means it is prepared for the possible sale of properties should investors continue to cash out."

    It appears that Irish people have their pension pots in these funds, that would be of great concern to me if I was one of those that had a portion of my pension in these funds.

    "Suzie Nolan, senior property fund manager at Aviva Life & Pensions Ireland DAC, said: “Our view is that the fundamentals of the Irish commercial property market remain strong." Apparently last year was a "record-breaking year".

    Where have we heard all of this before?


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    #478
    Foggy Jew
    Registered Users Posts: 761 ✭✭✭Foggy Jew


    I’m currently selling a property. I consulted two Estate Agents, both of whom gave me the same approximate of the value of the house. One suggested we put it on the market at that price, and the other suggested an initial asking price of €50,000 less ‘to generate interest & possibly start a bidding war’.

    It's the bally ballyness of it that makes it all seem so bally bally.



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    #479
    Cuddlesworth
    Registered Users Posts: 13,983 ✭✭✭✭Cuddlesworth


    The_Conductor wrote: »
    Its not just the headline rate of corporation tax- its all the credits and allowances companies are given too. For example- France's rate of corporation tax is currently set at 31%- however when you factor all the other deductions companies are allowed to use in France into the equation- the effective rate of tax on companies in France is actually lower than in Ireland (our rate of corporation tax being 12.5%). Its astounding that France (and other countries) can actually undercut Ireland- despite the vast differential in corporation tax rates- however, they can...…...

    Bringing up the tax rate helps them avoid talking about the real reasons they are not considered for expansion into by multinationals.


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    #480
    sweetie
    Registered Users Posts: 9,791 ✭✭✭sweetie


    Cuddlesworth wrote: »
    Bringing up the tax rate helps them avoid talking about the real reasons they are not considered for expansion into by multinationals.

    what would they be?


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    #481
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    This Indo article this morning gives an idea of where the vulnerabilities in the Irish property market are - i.e. The institutional investors are the ones most likely to be burned.

    https://m.independent.ie/business/pension-funds-hit-amid-fears-property-now-overvalued-38912574.html

    Aviva and Irish Life recently marked down the value of their property funds due to an "unusually high level of withdrawals from the funds". However, they have also said that there is no need to sell property due to liquidity concerns as of yet. Notwithstanding that, "Aviva said it moved the fund from "an acquisition to a disposal basis" with effect from Wednesday, which means it is prepared for the possible sale of properties should investors continue to cash out."

    It appears that Irish people have their pension pots in these funds, that would be of great concern to me if I was one of those that had a portion of my pension in these funds.

    "Suzie Nolan, senior property fund manager at Aviva Life & Pensions Ireland DAC, said: “Our view is that the fundamentals of the Irish commercial property market remain strong." Apparently last year was a "record-breaking year".

    Where have we heard all of this before?

    I thought these solely dealt in commercial properties which is a whole different market??


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