General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

golfball37 · 28-01-2020 09:18PM

Poll sample was 525 for Galway West. I’d say Grealish will get much higher. I hope Catherine Connolly gets back in there, she is a classy lady. Sean Kyne will get more FPVs than Hilda too I predict

L1011 · 28-01-2020 09:23PM

hotmail.com wrote: »

The only surprise is the Social Democrat figure. Is their candidate popular locally?

Yes, but he didn't run in May so we can't base off a figure from then.

An Ciarraioch · 28-01-2020 09:57PM

They did average 6% in Galway city itself, it seems, and O'Tuathail is from Connemara, I believe:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Galway_City_Council_election

hatrickpatrick · 28-01-2020 10:10PM

Idea is to have as many independents in the Dáil as possible and as few whipped parties, and also to hope that FFG get absolutely slammed for the neoliberal nightmare they've made of the Irish housing market. Thus:

Groupings from highest preference to lowest:

1: Richard Boyd Barrett (always been an option in my constituency since my first election)

2: Independents, starting with furthest left and working my way right

3, 4 and 5: SF, Greens, Labour. Still deciding on what order.

6: FF

7:FG

I really, really like Mary Lou's performance both as a TD and on the debate stage, my reservation about SF has nothing to do with their past or their left wing agenda (that's exactly what would cause me to vote for them in the first place) but more to do with the regular allegations that while in power in the North, they've reneged on a lot of their election promises. A lot of my close friends are SF supporters who point out that in fact this is more to do with how the North works in terms of powersharing with the DUP, so I'll have to look into the specifics of what they've actually voted for and against to see where they simply got overruled and where they actually championed the kinds of policies they criticise here. I'm very concerned that they'd be a risk of "meet the new boss, same as the old boss" if they got into power, basically, but I'm more than willing to change my mind on that once I've done my research over the next week.

Regardless, I want to see a rainbow coalition if you will, with the smaller parties, SF and independents. A government in which both FF and FG were in opposition would be f*cking incredible, even if it was a minority government.

Basically, everything possible to keep FG out, but if it has to be one or the other, I never thought I'd hear myself saying this but I'd rather FF edged them out, hence voting the whole way down the ballot paper. They have to be punished for their blocking of social housing projects or else the country will be absolutely f*cked in the long term.

blanch152 · 28-01-2020 10:14PM

golfball37 wrote: »

Poll sample was 525 for Galway West. I’d say Grealish will get much higher. I hope Catherine Connolly gets back in there, she is a classy lady. Sean Kyne will get more FPVs than Hilda too I predict

Problem with a poll like that is the constituency is so geogrpahically diverse with regional differences that it would be difficult to get an accurate representation from such a small sample.

VinLieger · 29-01-2020 07:28AM

endacl wrote: »

I dunno. Australia fines voters for non-participation. Would easily cover the cost of running the poll.

They only have to present at a polling station you can still not vote if you want

scrumqueen · 29-01-2020 10:45AM

Grab All Association wrote: »

No point here in Tipp
Lowry
Mattie
Kelly
Cahill
Don’t think Seamus Healy will get in. That fake Fine Gael TD who has been claiming credit for everything the past few years might take his seat.

So not only do we have fake news, fake doctors in the HSE, we also have fake TD’s

I really do feel for you, I was browsing each constituencies candidates a couple of days ago and when I saw this I thought, wow I couldn't stomach any of that lot.

However, if this is the case, I would start looking at my local grassroots organisations around issues I am passionate about. Surely someone in one of these orgs could be persuaded to run?
Or if you and a couple of your mates like the look of a party that don't currently have a party branch in your area, why don't you start one up?

begbysback · 29-01-2020 10:57AM

Whelo79 wrote: »

This is the best argument to vote you will read here. No party will meet every single one of your needs, so vote for the one that comes closest. And saying 'they are all the same' is not true, we have never experienced anything other than a FF or FG led government so it would be now accurate to say FF and FG are the same.

Not really a great argument when you consider those who do not vote, the reasoning for not voting is not because they are unsatisfied with the current political status quo, if it was then it would simply be a case of voting for an alternative party.

People generally don’t vote because they are apathetic, it doesn’t matter which party wins an election, it will make zero difference to many people’s lives in this country.

And for those who don’t vote and are not apathetic? nowadays it’s obvious the election process is fundamentally flawed, it’s a case of who can construct the greatest marketing plan - this has been proven, and exploited in recent times.

Zubeneschamali · 29-01-2020 11:32AM

iCareNotOneJot wrote: »

If I genuinely dont like, or believe in, any of the candidates on the ballot, why should I vote for any of them?

You shouldn't.

The fewer people vote, the more my vote counts.

abcabc123123 · 29-01-2020 05:10PM

I vote mainly based on transport and climate policies, which generally means voting Green, then SD, Lab, PBP, assorted lefty independents, SF, then FG, then FF. Vote pretty much all the way down the ballot, leaving any fascists out entirely.

Blitzkrieger · 29-01-2020 05:15PM

I overheard a snippet on RTE News Now the other day referring to 'the two men who would be Taoiseach'. Seems blatantly biased to me.

L1011 · 29-01-2020 05:48PM

Blitzkrieger wrote: »

I overheard a snippet on RTE News Now the other day referring to 'the two men who would be Taoiseach'. Seems blatantly biased to me.

Nobody other party has nominated enough candidates to even have the vaguest chance of their leader becoming Taoiseach.

blanch152 · 29-01-2020 06:55PM

https://www.sinnfein.ie/contents/55864

Have a look and a laugh (or weep) at Sinn Fein's election manifesto.

is_that_so · 29-01-2020 07:20PM

Here's Draghi in 2016 on that capping proposal from another party. Again the new one from SF is short on important information but remarkably similar.
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/energy-and-resources/draghi-warns-against-allowing-central-bank-to-cap-mortgage-rates-1.2873575

Kermit.de.frog · 29-01-2020 08:29PM

Seems the FG policy on homelessness is working as new figures show a 717 monthly drop in the number of homeless.

https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2020/0129/1111784-homeless-figures/

New housing supply being cited as main reason.

AMKC · 29-01-2020 11:58PM

Vote because good people died fighting for our freedom so we could vote and have a say in how our Country is governed and run. Vote because we have a right to vote. If you don't like any party just vote for the person on the ballet paper that is in your area that can be a voice for your area and help you out if its ever needed.

Duggie2012 · 30-01-2020 12:45AM

AMKC wrote: »

Vote because good people died fighting for our freedom so we could vote and have a say in how our Country is governed and run. Vote because we have a right to vote. If you don't like any party just vote for the person on the ballet paper that is in your area that can be a voice for your area and help you out if its ever needed.

This. Even if i didnt want to vote i will do it no matter what cause our people before us lost their lives for my right to do so. The least i can do is honour them.

pixelburp · 30-01-2020 08:48AM

It feels kinda redundant to continue the "debate" when the chief proponents behind not voting have either closed their account or been banned. Does make one question the bona fides of their arguments in the first instance, but seems like an instance where the thread has become an echo chamber?

What has me most curious about this coming election is the turnout. A Saturday (or Sunday) election is the most convenient day you can possibly have for the electorate and if the percentages are not significantly higher than previous years, it'll severely damage the argument from those who'd say all elections be at the weekend.

Doctors room ghost · 30-01-2020 09:01AM

Breaking it down simple for myself and they say if you don’t vote don’t complain.
And I love complaining so that’s a yes from me.
Won’t make a huge difference though.each and every politician is the same if you ask me.
They just change the tone and buzz words of the waffle they spew.

30-01-2020 09:09AM

iCareNotOneJot wrote: »

If I genuinely dont like, or believe in, any of the candidates on the ballot, why should I vote for any of them?

I am interested to hear why other people are voting, what they expect from their next goverment ?

Imagine if only Sneaky Snake McSlimeball voters were the only ones to exercise their civic duty and the Bould Sneaky was elected? No one would have the right to complain about Sneaky or their policies. People get the TDs they vote for.

machaseh · 30-01-2020 09:11AM

I wish I could vote here in IReland to get Sinn Féin into power. But alas.

begbysback · 30-01-2020 09:15AM

AMKC wrote: »

Vote because good people died fighting for our freedom so we could vote and have a say in how our Country is governed and run. Vote because we have a right to vote. If you don't like any party just vote for the person on the ballet paper that is in your area that can be a voice for your area and help you out if its ever needed.

Another of the great myths, if we were colonized by the British for example, we would still have freedom, and could still vote. It’s a great slogan, if you like slogans, but that’s all it is, a slogan, Ireland may have lost a lot if it were colonized, but freedom and voting would not be amongst them.

Again marketing has clearly had an impact on the general population, ideas put forward don’t even have to resemble the truth, this is why we see so many slogans at election time, suggestions are somewhat strangely accepted when proposed in the form of a slogan.

IAmTheReign · 30-01-2020 09:32AM

blanch152 wrote: »

https://www.sinnfein.ie/contents/55864

Have a look and a laugh (or weep) at Sinn Fein's election manifesto.

I don't need to read their manifesto to be worried about it. This quote from Pearse Doherty was enough for me. Their own finance spokesman doesn't seem to know what narrowing the tax base means.

At the party's manifesto launch, Sinn Féin finance spokesperson Pearse Doherty said cutting USC was the "right thing to do" because it will give "families and workers a break".

"Far from narrowing or reducing the tax base you can see from our overall suite of proposals there is additional revenue coming in the State," Mr Doherty said.

is_that_so · 30-01-2020 09:33AM

begbysback wrote: »

Another of the great myths, if we were colonized by the British for example, we would still have freedom, and could still vote. It’s a great slogan, if you like slogans, but that’s all it is, a slogan, Ireland may have lost a lot if it were colonized, but freedom and voting would not be amongst them.

Again marketing has clearly had an impact on the general population, ideas put forward don’t even have to resemble the truth, this is why we see so many slogans at election time, suggestions are somewhat strangely accepted when proposed in the form of a slogan.

Not sure where you stand from this but voting is a form of social responsibility. It gets people out from behind their own self-absorbed, nihilistic certitude about how the world works.

Thinkingaboutit · 30-01-2020 09:38AM

No insults please.

blanch152 · 30-01-2020 11:03AM

IAmTheReign wrote: »

I don't need to read their manifesto to be worried about it. This quote from Pearse Doherty was enough for me. Their own finance spokesman doesn't seem to know what narrowing the tax base means.

When you add abolishing LPT and opposition to water charges, it is clear that he hasn't the first idea of economics, could probably know enough to make a school's first-year debating team, get blown away by anyone 15 or over.

Kermit.de.frog · 30-01-2020 12:05PM

Isn't Doherty a 3 time college drop out as well?

I remember reading that somewhere.

L1011 · 30-01-2020 12:12PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Isn't Doherty a 3 time college drop out as well?

I remember reading that somewhere.

He has claimed to be a Civil Engineer despite not getting qualified, twice, anyway

https://www.thejournal.ie/sinn-feins-doherty-forced-to-clarify-job-qualifications-78067-Feb2011/

sid waddell · 30-01-2020 12:20PM

blanch152 wrote: »

When you add abolishing LPT and opposition to water charges, it is clear that he hasn't the first idea of economics, could probably know enough to make a school's first-year debating team, get blown away by anyone 15 or over.

Fine Gael don't appear to have the first idea of economics given their policy of a 30k handout for first time buyers. An exact repeat of crazy Fianna Fail boom time policies.

beggars_bush · 30-01-2020 01:09PM

sid waddell wrote: »

Fine Gael don't appear to have the first idea of economics given their policy of a 30k handout for first time buyers. An exact repeat of crazy Fianna Fail boom time policies.

Is it not a tax refund?

General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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