General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

James Brown · 27-01-2020 06:46PM

blanch152 wrote: »

https://www.redcresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/SBP-January-2020-Poll-Report.pdf

Here is some of the detail behind the Red C poll.

Some strange findings. Sinn Fein doing better with women than men and only 12% in Connacht/Ulster.

Led by a woman might explain it.

pixelburp · 27-01-2020 06:47PM

The Green Party "1st Preference" stats are interesting, insofar as it doesn't exactly demonstrate this persistent claim of it being the party of urban middle/upper class; 7-9% scarcely speaks to a great class divide; sure it drops but not exactly a cliff-edge either. Admittedly the Regions show a bigger difference, with Leinster / Munster's 10% presumably translating as Dublin / Cork.

road_high · 27-01-2020 06:55PM

meeeeh wrote: »

What state is that? Ireland is still one of the most prosperous countries in the world. I actually agree that it's no way to vote but it still doesn't mean people will consider SF as viable alternative. It will be FG (among bigger parties).

Exactly. While there are problems why would anyone risk the economy and progress we have made by taking a very dodgy gamble on SF with the faint hope they're going to magic away these problems (with other peoples money of course) with a frankly ludicrious manifesto. I think the words "viable alternative" sum it up and SF are pretty damn far from being that as we stand.

road_high · 27-01-2020 07:00PM

Jim Root wrote: »

I'm pretty agnostic party wise but I really don't think FG would have fared any better had they been in power at the time.

"And if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle"- undeniable reality is FF were the ones in power and ran a series of very unaffordable budgets that ramped up public spending beyond what we could comfortably afford. Once the **** hit the fan in 2008/9 and tax revenues collapsed FF landed us in a desperate position of falling taxes and high/rising state expenditure. We had to borrow to shore up the gaps and eventually the markets lost confidence in us and were psuhed into an IMF bailout. All under FF's watch and stewardship.

SF and FF have learned zilch from that desperate crisis and here again we have promising to ramp up state spending on a massive scale with the very real potential to land us back right there- No Thanks!

Pronto63 · 27-01-2020 07:10PM

Rashers Big Log wrote: »

Grand. So as a quid pro quo I would support the USA deporting each and every illegal Irish person. Put them on a ship and drop them off in Cork. Keep Ireland Irish, right?

Never mentioned deportations.

I said put a 5 year halt on immigration. To be clear I'm talking about non-EEA. I know that EU citizens have freedom of movement.

blanch152 · 27-01-2020 07:40PM

Matt Barrett wrote: »

Led by a woman might explain it.

Not enough, the Paddy Houlihan controversy played very badly with women generally.

It will be interesting to see if the Sinn Fein vote holds up for the election.

blanch152 · 27-01-2020 07:41PM

pixelburp wrote: »

The Green Party "1st Preference" stats are interesting, insofar as it doesn't exactly demonstrate this persistent claim of it being the party of urban middle/upper class; 7-9% scarcely speaks to a great class divide; sure it drops but not exactly a cliff-edge either. Admittedly the Regions show a bigger difference, with Leinster / Munster's 10% presumably translating as Dublin / Cork.

The problem with smaller parties is that you can never be sure if their vote is distributed generally or concentrated where they have good candidates or favourable demographics. Predicting a seat number becomes very difficult.

vriesmays · 27-01-2020 07:44PM

A lot of of our non-EU immigrants are ariving here from other EU counties where they've been rejected as spoofers.

blanch152 · 27-01-2020 07:45PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Hmm, really competing with SF now I see. This report from February last year suggests 35,000 a year for a decade is the level needed.
https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/report-35k-new-homes-needed-annually-in-next-decade-905413.html

For comparison: some 93,419 houses were built in 2006; 78,027 in 2007; 51,724 in 2008. Also can't see how we need 10,000 social houses a year with under 10,000 families requiring a home.

Here's a more up to date piece with thoughts on the various promises. Hard questions do need to be asked about these huge numbers.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/business/housing-cure-needs-careful-consideration-of-all-options-not-a-knee-jerk-reaction-977897.html

That is a really excellent article in the Irish Examiner, couple of gems stick out:

"The Green Party, for example, has unveiled plans for a “deep retrofitting scheme” to make 75,000 houses a year energyefficient.

This would appear ambitious, though, if implemented, theinvestment would surely pay for itself, in what is likely to be acarbon-constrained world."

"We should be squeezing a lot more people into the more central areas of our towns and cities"

"Homeowners cannot, however, have it both ways.

They cannot expect local authorities to fund ambitious social housing programmes, while declining to provide local government with adequate income.

Our local institutions, in turn, need to develop a value-for-money mindset, along with the necessary skills in cost control."

L1011 · 27-01-2020 07:45PM

blanch152 wrote: »

https://www.redcresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/SBP-January-2020-Poll-Report.pdf

Here is some of the detail behind the Red C poll.

Some strange findings. Sinn Fein doing better with women than men and only 12% in Connacht/Ulster.

S/PBP 5% in ABC1 and 1% in C2DE? And Labour outstripping S/PBP 4x in C2DE

Something's gone very wrong with the sampling there!

blanch152 · 27-01-2020 07:47PM

L1011 wrote: »

S/PBP 5% in ABC1 and 1% in C2DE? And Labour outstripping S/PBP 4x in C2DE

Something's gone very wrong with the sampling there!

It has been a consistent feature of the polls so far that they have thrown out some strange results behind the headline figures.

is_that_so · 27-01-2020 08:01PM

El Tarangu wrote: »

I think you might you might be correct.

However, if FG had been in power before the crash, there might not have been as many Bertie-era, 'one for everyone in the audience' public sector pay deals to rollback once the sh!t did hit the fan.

The problem is that by 2007 it was almost too late. They might have tried to tamp things down a bit but a brand new government would always have been onto a loser.

iCareNotOneJot · 27-01-2020 08:07PM

It must be so inspiring heading in to vote for the 'least worst' option on a ballot.
The least worst choice is the best choice from a list of choices that you think are all bad.

iCareNotOneJot · 27-01-2020 08:09PM

How about a mandatory drug test for each social welfare payment

James Brown · 27-01-2020 08:09PM

blanch152 wrote: »

Not enough, the Paddy Houlihan controversy played very badly with women generally.

It will be interesting to see if the Sinn Fein vote holds up for the election.

So the SF rise in popularity with women wouldn't be down to SF being female led because of the idiot Councillor doing damage as regards women?
Did you mean despite?

Eric Cartman · 27-01-2020 08:15PM

iCareNotOneJot wrote: »

How about a mandatory drug test for each social welfare payment

Ive been saying this for years. It would be a great start to reducing our crippling addiction problem.

iCareNotOneJot · 27-01-2020 08:16PM

Anyone have any ideas where I could find out the spending being done by parties on social media campaigns for this election ?

pixelburp · 27-01-2020 08:30PM

In many respects, being as it is structured on the principle of compromise for the good of all, Democracy IS about picking the least worst. The idea of a single party, whose every single policy might coincidentally not only align with one's personal beliefs, but that of a significant slice of the population, is incredibly unlikely. I know this, so I pick the candidates who I can agree with the most.

God knows there are systemic problems in Ireland but I'd rather see a government of compromise muddle on, than great cyclical lurches to the left or right depending on mood, populism or economy.

FrancieBrady · 27-01-2020 08:33PM

Matt Barrett wrote: »

So the SF rise in popularity with women wouldn't be down to SF being female led because of the idiot Councillor doing damage as regards women?
Did you mean despite?

It was such a failed and forgettable attempt to rise a controversy that blanch has even forgotten how to spell his name.

McMurphy · 27-01-2020 08:34PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It was such a failed and forgettable attempt to rise a controversy that blanch has even forgotten how to spell his name.

Sounds about right.

kowloon · 27-01-2020 08:49PM

Macha wrote: »

The climate and biodiversity emergency. I'm surprised you don't have it as an option.

It will make all the other issues listed worse.

It probably helps that Ireland isn't currently on fire or underwater.

kowloon · 27-01-2020 08:54PM

endacl wrote: »

As citizens, we are required to (1) obey the laws of the state, (2) finance the state through the payment of taxes, and (3) participate in deciding who runs the state through the exercise of franchise.

Ever wonder why only the first two of those are enforced?

Complaining without participating is whinging. Whinging does nothing to alter the status quo. Never has, never will.

It's not a requirement, and that's probably a good thing. Imagine how warped things could get if people were forced to vote. It's much better that those with no opinion stay at home than turn up to vote for the most destabilising candidate or the one with the funniest name.

WishUWereHere · 27-01-2020 11:38PM

Had to switch off the tv. <snipped> voice was grating the head. Nobody else getting a word in.

And to think he’s the favorite to be first past the post?

iCareNotOneJot · 27-01-2020 11:48PM

I dont hear any mention of the cost of pharmaceuticals in this country. Three or four Chemists in most towns. Must be some profit in that game

L1011 · 28-01-2020 12:15AM

MLMD showing that maybe it was a good thing to not be on the other debates. Shortall and Howlin barely talking; not sure if that's Byrnes issue or theirs.

RBB getting the applause but most of the potential reps for that party grouping are lunatics and Byrne did shaft him with the never going in to power thing so its unlikely to do much help

Like many multi-way debates, basically everyone has been awful; if they've got to talk.

endacl · 28-01-2020 12:18AM

Think I’ll just have to blindfold meself on polling day and fire a dart at the ballot paper.

United road · 28-01-2020 12:27AM

endacl wrote: »

Think I’ll just have to blindfold meself on polling day and fire a dart at the ballot paper.

Spot on!
More confused now then i ever was!
Iv gone from having no confidence in some of the parties to no confidence in any of them!

tabby aspreme · 28-01-2020 12:32AM

L1011 wrote: »

MLMD showing that maybe it was a good thing to not be on the other debates. Shortall and Howlin barely talking; not sure if that's Byrnes issue or theirs.

RBB getting the applause but most of the potential reps for that party grouping are lunatics and Byrne did shaft him with the never going in to power thing so its unlikely to do much help

Like many multi-way debates, basically everyone has been awful; if they've got to talk.

Sinn Fein 's best chance is to say nothing, have they produced there manifesto yet.

Sheeps · 28-01-2020 01:42AM

Hard to deny RBB as the winner of that debate, with Mary Lou as a runner up. Micheál Martin had a few good moments, but overall was awful. Leo Varadkar didn't have the worst night. Eamon Ryan was terrible. Róisín Shortall was great, had a few toe to toes with Varadkar and came out as cool and collected, but ultimately she was unmemorable. Howlin was so small and quiet I forgot he was there.

Will it change anything? Probably not. Don't expect much from any of them.

Bannasidhe · 28-01-2020 01:44AM

Ignore FF, FG, LP, and SF. The latter because of their lack of animal welfare policies - the other 3 are never getting a vote from me as I fail to see the point in repeating the same experiment we have been running since 1922.

Having done as much research as I can into the various Independents I ignore any pro-lifers, rabid nationalists, disenfranchised members of FF/FG/SF, and let's leave the EU guffmerchants.

Then I vote for Mick Barry and the SDs.

I pause over the Greens and if I experience the feeling of sick in my mouth at the thought of Eamonn Ryan in government again I ignore them too and fold up the ballot paper and put it in the ballot box.

General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

Comments