General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

is_that_so · 25-01-2020 02:12PM

DJIMI TRARORE wrote: »

Not much interest in politics, but the bookies had Heather one of the favourites to be the top no1 vote nationwide, ps:what's the rationale of getting into Europe and less than a year later going for a TD

Shamelessness!

meeeeh · 25-01-2020 02:12PM

meeeeh wrote: »

They burst into flames the moment they cross the village border where I live.

I think one of them was brave enough to venture in during the first election campaign after the crash. I haven't seen them since. It's a FF area and I think even FG approach it with trepidation.

Carol Nolan got in the last election. She doesn't have a chance and neither does who ever is replacing her as candidate in the constituency. I don't think they ever bother with the posters.

I just remembered constituency was redrawn so who ever got in in Laois could keep his seat.

eviltwin · 25-01-2020 02:14PM

Very popular with the work shy members of our community, not so much with working people

is_that_so · 25-01-2020 02:23PM

RedC poll in SBP tomorrow. Info should be available about tea time today.

Kermit.de.frog · 25-01-2020 02:27PM

If FF are ahead you need to get out of this country. If you are young I would encourage you to leave.

Don't live with the disaster, get out now while you have time.

FrancieBrady · 25-01-2020 02:31PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If FF are ahead you need to get out of this country. If you are young I would encourage you to leave.

Don't live with the disaster, get out now while you have time.

Funny, if you look at it as it really happened (and not through a party lens), FG facilitated FF whenever they messed up and vice versa.

Homelander · 25-01-2020 02:34PM

There are no TD's, no City Councillors, and one County Councillor in all of Galway. Not at all popular. They had a fairly popular Senator, Trevor O' Clochartaigh, who did well in the 2016 GE but just fell short, but he left the party after 'differences'. They performed dismally in the last local elections.

L1011 · 25-01-2020 03:15PM

Sitting Councillor - and their GE candidate - went out on the first count in May for my LEA. In the other LEAs their candidates went out on count 1, 2, 3 and 5. Resignations across the board between local elections for a multitude of reasons, one ex Cllr got elected as Ind and another lost out.

Main vote base - or the shreds of it that were left - in the constituency has been punted across the border to another constituency. They got about 1600 votes in the entire area in May. Probably going to finish 8th behind 2x FG, 2x FF, 1x GP, 1x SD, 1x Lab in no particular order (SD likely first)

It would be extremely unlikely that an electorate who decided to resoundingly throw them out 8 months ago would change their minds that quickly.

Kermit.de.frog · 25-01-2020 03:55PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Funny, if you look at it as it really happened (and not through a party lens), FG facilitated FF whenever they messed up and vice versa.

I call bull****.

The country needed a government in 2016 to demonstrate unity in the brexit vote. There was no choice but for FG to accept supply from FF.

If a government was not formed we would not have the deal we have today with Brexit. Simple as that.

FG always cleaning up the mess FF leaves and being punished for putting the country back on it's feet.

Again I appeal to ALL young people - get the hell out of here if FF get in.

You know where it ends - national bankruptcy. Don't have it forced on you like in 2010, get out ahead of time.

Water John · 25-01-2020 04:13PM

Nonsense, this is and will be a good country to live in. Neither of the published plans of FG or FF look like bankrupting the country. I think all mainstream parties have learned a harsh economic lesson.
Where do you suggest people go? To Johnson or Trump?

FrancieBrady · 25-01-2020 04:15PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I call bull****.

The country needed a government in 2016 to demonstrate unity in the brexit vote. There was no choice but for FG to accept supply from FF.

If a government was not formed we would not have the deal we have today with Brexit. Simple as that.

FG always cleaning up the mess FF leaves and being punished for putting the country back on it's feet.

Again I appeal to ALL young people - get the hell out of here if FF get in.

You know where it ends - national bankruptcy. Don't have it forced on you like in 2010, get out ahead of time.

Had Fine Gael not been schooled by others they wouldn't have sought special status for NI in Brexit, just like Charlie and Leo might have gotten their love-in for the RIC/Black and Tans, had others not thwarted them.
They might have chanced weighing in behind the DUP on Brexit even, who knows.

Maybe getting rid of the stranglehold these two have on power here might be a better answer than more forced emigration.

FrancieBrady · 25-01-2020 04:42PM

Are there new polls out this weekend?

is_that_so · 25-01-2020 04:44PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Are there new polls out this weekend?

Yep Red C

An Ciarraioch · 25-01-2020 04:58PM

And Michael Brennan's usual practice is to highlight the new poll at 4, give out some teasers during the hour, before publishing the full poll results at 5.

An Ciarraioch · 25-01-2020 05:41PM

He has since tweeted that, breaking with the usual practice, the results won't be released until midnight.

FrancieBrady · 25-01-2020 05:54PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

He has since tweeted that, breaking with the usual practice, the results won't be released until midnight.

Another shock incoming?

L1011 · 25-01-2020 05:55PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Another shock incoming?

What would be a shock at this stage I wonder? They are the most reputable polling agency but confirming the others would not be a shock now.

Water John · 25-01-2020 05:59PM

By keeping the polls under wraps until midnight is to prevent the other papers from running stories based on their poll. They will all adhere to that in future IWS.

Sierra Oscar · 25-01-2020 06:17PM

Water John wrote: »

By keeping the polls under wraps until midnight is to prevent the other papers from running stories based on their poll. They will all adhere to that in future IWS.

Yeah that's it. All of the other papers had the Irish Times poll in their print editions when the poll was released at 10pm.

An Ciarraioch · 25-01-2020 07:43PM

A few oddities of note from previous Red Cs - FF haven't led in one of their polls since April 2017, and SF have never attained 20% since the last GE, achieving a high of 19% in February 2017!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2020_Irish_general_election

FrancieBrady · 25-01-2020 07:51PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

A few oddities of note from previous Red Cs - FF haven't led in one of their polls since April 2017, and SF have never attained 20% since the last GE, achieving a high of 19% in February 2017!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2020_Irish_general_election

Both Ipsos and Millward Brown were closer to FF and FG's final poll figures in the last opinion polls of 2016. RedC had FG as high as 31 at one point as well.

VinLieger · 25-01-2020 09:12PM

Disgusted that FG have given in to the malicious campaign from the ex minister for justice and current senator by official canceling the luas green line expansion. When cherrywood starts coming on stream the green line will be effectively non existent for anyone north of sandyford.

iCareNotOneJot · 25-01-2020 10:13PM

If I genuinely dont like, or believe in, any of the candidates on the ballot, why should I vote for any of them?

I am interested to hear why other people are voting, what they expect from their next goverment ?

L1011 · 25-01-2020 10:16PM

Because people who like the candidates you really hate are going to vote for them.

An Ciarraioch · 25-01-2020 10:24PM

Mail on Sunday also have a poll tomorrow, with their Ireland Thinks company:

https://twitter.com/ireland_thinks/status/1221152706921889793

touts · 25-01-2020 10:56PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Mail on Sunday also have a poll tomorrow, with their Ireland Thinks company:

https://twitter.com/ireland_thinks/status/1221152706921889793

Mail on Sunday poll? What are the headlines? "SHOCK as Irexit EXPLODES as biggest issue" and "Major security alert threatens election as MIGRANT worker discovered to be cleaner of school used as polling station".

Would be surprised if any poll commissioned by the Mail is even remotely accurate or relevant.

touts · 25-01-2020 10:58PM

Water John wrote: »

By keeping the polls under wraps until midnight is to prevent the other papers from running stories based on their poll. They will all adhere to that in future IWS.

Agree. But if the results were completely as expected then they would just release them. There is probably something in there that will cause debate and discussion tomorrow and they want their name all over it.

antimatterx · 25-01-2020 11:05PM

FF 26 +2 FG 23-7 SF 19 Greens 8 Lab 4 RedC

Sierra Oscar · 25-01-2020 11:12PM

FF 26 (+2)
FG 23 (-7)
SF 19 (+8)
Green 8 (+1)
Lab 4 (-2)
Soc Dem 3 (+1)
SolPBP 2 (n/c)
Aontu 1
Renua Nil (-1)
Ind 14 (-2)

L1011 · 25-01-2020 11:14PM

Starting to get a picture that there's people who had avoiding voting for SF (for all of the many reasons you might avoid voting SF) deciding that its worth a shot because they haven't been in power down here

Just look at NI to see what they are like in power.

General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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