General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

is_that_so · 20-01-2020 08:01PM

B&A report is available from their site - 28% DK in their poll, the same as December so not very informative at all in the context of where votes might go.

L1011 · 20-01-2020 08:20PM

McMurphy wrote: »

No I was referring to "Come out you Black and Tans" getting to No1 in the iTunes charts, which was the public's response to Charlie and Co wanting to commemorate the RIC.

Come Out Ye Black And Tans is number 1 in Irish and UK iTunes charts

That's what I meant, wrote the wrong name down

It's what got to #29 here and absolutely nowhere in the UK. It was massively, massively overhyped by the media who think iTunes is still majorly relevant. #29 is not a significant result

An internet campaign to get "Christmas Card From A Hooker In Minneapolis" by Tom Waits in to the charts in 2007, when online purchasing was tiny, got it to #28 for instance

James Brown · 20-01-2020 09:13PM

L1011 wrote: »

That's what I meant, wrote the wrong name down

It's what got to #29 here and absolutely nowhere in the UK. It was massively, massively overhyped by the media who think iTunes is still majorly relevant. #29 is not a significant result

An internet campaign to get "Christmas Card From A Hooker In Minneapolis" by Tom Waits in to the charts in 2007, when online purchasing was tiny, got it to #28 for instance

It didn't rank at all in the R&B charts, but was number one where McMurphy said it was.
What chart are you following?

Point is I'd wager most were bought to take the piss. The public were not impressed, as shown by the cancellation.

L1011 · 20-01-2020 09:40PM

Matt Barrett wrote: »

It didn't rank at all in the R&B charts, but was number one where McMurphy said it was.
What chart are you following?

Point is I'd wager most were bought to take the piss. The public were not impressed, as shown by the cancellation.

The actual single charts. iTunes is not the be all and end all; except to journos who all live in iPhone land.

The actual sales volumes required for that were tiny - extrapolating reaching #29 in the singles charts (at one of the deadest times of year for sales) to anything you can apply to "the public" is beyond a stretch.

James Brown · 20-01-2020 09:45PM

L1011 wrote: »

The actual single charts. iTunes is not the be all and end all; except to journos who all live in iPhone land.

The actual sales volumes required for that were tiny - extrapolating reaching #29 in the singles charts (at one of the deadest times of year for sales) to anything you can apply to "the public" is beyond a stretch.

'The public' referred to the event. Canceling a state event is not done on a whim.
As regards the song, only pertains to those bought it.

Snow Garden · 20-01-2020 10:07PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Yeah the Ipsos poll is the one to watch, it was the most accurate in 2011 and 2016.

When is the Ipsos poll out?

FrancieBrady · 20-01-2020 10:09PM

Snow Garden wrote: »

When is the Ipsos poll out?

10pm somebody said earlier

McMurphy · 20-01-2020 10:10PM

L1011 wrote: »

That's what I meant, wrote the wrong name down

It's what got to #29 here and absolutely nowhere in the UK. It was massively, massively overhyped by the media who think iTunes is still majorly relevant. #29 is not a significant result

An internet campaign to get "Christmas Card From A Hooker In Minneapolis" by Tom Waits in to the charts in 2007, when online purchasing was tiny, got it to #28 for instance

Ok, I'm not about to have an online argument where semantics are being brought to the fore in an attempt to downplay the response Charlie and Leo got, but I stand over my statement.

The song reached wait for it.....

Irish iTunes chart - No1
UK iTunes chart - No1

And the Australian music charts - No4. (I'd have loved to have seen the reactions of some random old Aussies when that came belting through their wireless at them

)

I don't think the people suddenly had a craving for the song as some random spur of the moment thing.

It was clearly the result of an online response to the plans to commemorate the RIC, downplay the significance of you wish, but ask yourself what happened the commemoration being planned?

Snow Garden · 20-01-2020 10:17PM

L1011 wrote: »

The actual single charts. iTunes is not the be all and end all; except to journos who all live in iPhone land.

The actual sales volumes required for that were tiny - extrapolating reaching #29 in the singles charts (at one of the deadest times of year for sales) to anything you can apply to "the public" is beyond a stretch.

The weird thing is that although
(a) I thought the RIC story was making a mountain out of a molehill
(b) I am not and have never been a Sinn Fein supporter
(c) I thought the reaction showed how immature we are as a nation
(d) I think we spend way too much time as a nation dwelling on the past
....I found myself humming and singing Come out you Black and Tans randomly loads of times over the past 2 weeks!!!

Catchy tune.

eire4 · 20-01-2020 10:37PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Shane Coleman predictions in Sunday Independent (aggregates his constituency forecasts):

FF 55
FG 46
Ind 18
SF 17
Green 11
Lab 8
Soc Dems 2
Sol/PBP 2 (Coppinger, Smith)
Aontú 1

I could easily see that turning out to be fairly accurate. No doubt in my mind Fianna Fail will emerge with the most seats the question is by how many and how many more will they need in a coalition to form a government.

eire4 · 20-01-2020 10:41PM

Water John wrote: »

FF will be the largest party but doubt it will be above 60. If their to pick up seats, it has to be largely in Dublin. But the Greens have first bite there on floating voters.

I think your right there. Fianna Fail will end up the largest party but I agree I do not think they will break 60 seats.

L1011 · 20-01-2020 10:42PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

10pm somebody said earlier

Both the ST and now the IT today seem to be doing a hell of a lot better stopping poll leaks than anyone ever did before.

FrancieBrady · 20-01-2020 10:43PM

L1011 wrote: »

Both the ST and now the IT today seem to be doing a hell of a lot better stopping poll leaks than anyone ever did before.

Claire Byrne will have results on her show.

hotmail.com · 20-01-2020 10:48PM

The Greens only at 7% in Dublin according to the weekend poll, down 2%.

That will be cause for concern for the Greens. It doesn't suggest they will win a raft of new seats in the capital.

L1011 · 20-01-2020 10:48PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Claire Byrne will have results on her show.

If I start trying to get RTE Player working now, it *might* be working for 10. Probably not!

Itssoeasy · 20-01-2020 10:56PM

L1011 wrote: »

If I start trying to get RTE Player working now, it *might* be working for 10. Probably not!

Well you'll get the see the ads they play anyway. Given that tg4 and Virgin media have a player that works very well any time I've used them it still baffles me how the biggest of the three can't get it working.

FrancieBrady · 20-01-2020 10:57PM

L1011 wrote: »

If I start trying to get RTE Player working now, it *might* be working for 10. Probably not!

They'll be on the tweet machine one minute after the IT publish them I'd say.

Sierra Oscar · 20-01-2020 10:59PM

Due out in just over two minutes. Wild rumors of a Sinn Féin surge, we will know shortly!

I suspect this could be completely at odds with the B&A. If it's a completely different picture with this poll then I reckon the media will discount them for the remainder of the campaign. Which may be no bad thing.

L1011 · 20-01-2020 10:59PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Due out in just over two minutes. Wild rumors of a Sinn Féin surge, we will know shortly!

I suspect this could be completely at odds with the B&A.

Last IPSOS is October, SF were on 14 in it

Sierra Oscar · 20-01-2020 11:02PM

Election 2020: FF edges ahead of FG as SF surges in new Ipsos MRBI poll

L1011 · 20-01-2020 11:02PM

SF +7

hotmail.com · 20-01-2020 11:02PM

FF - 25
FG - 23
SF - 21

Sierra Oscar · 20-01-2020 11:03PM

This will certainly give momentum to Sinn Féin's campaign on the RTÉ leaders debate. Can't see RTÉ giving in though.

McMurphy · 20-01-2020 11:03PM

GoldFour4 · 20-01-2020 11:04PM

When was the poll taken ?

is_that_so · 20-01-2020 11:04PM

That's more like what would have been expected although I am surprised at the SF number.

Sierra Oscar · 20-01-2020 11:04PM

Massive divergence between B&A and Ipsos. If this sort of discrepancy is continued with RedC then who knows what will happen on election day.

McMurphy · 20-01-2020 11:04PM

The shinners have surged by 7% seemingly at FG/labour expense.

Holy shlt:eek:

is_that_so · 20-01-2020 11:04PM

malistheman wrote: »

When was the poll taken ?

The poll was taken on Thursday, Friday and Saturday of last week in the days after the election campaign began.

Sierra Oscar · 20-01-2020 11:05PM

FF 25% (-)
FG 23% (-6)
SF 21% (+7)
GP 8% (-)
Lab 5% (-1)
S-PBP 2% (+1)
Soc Dems 2% (+1)
I4C 1% (-1)

General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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