Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

FrancieBrady wrote: »

According to Newsnight Boris is on the phone tonight to EU telling them that he thinks he can get deal over the line and he only needs a few days extension.

Jolyon et all will love that as will the Scottish courts if true.

is_that_so wrote: »

The idea of that I would say is to take control of the timetable again. 2 weeks gives them nearly 3 weeks of debate. It doesn't suit him to get the full 3 months if he can avoid it.

It would be like the last extension no doubt, max 3 months, in other words leave sooner when deal is ratified.

is_that_so wrote: »

Lots of assumptions. Where the polls seem to point at present he will probably get one, unless deals can be done amongst opposition parties. That's the trouble of FPTP, it's a brutal,unforgiving system where a 30% share to 31% delivers no seats.

A GE would be risky for Johnson. The English hard right / far right / nationalists love him but he is hated by millions of others.....an overall majority is far from a given.

It's hard to imagine Labour Leavers voting for the likes of Johnson, Raab and Patel.

Johnson will also have a deal ready to go, he'll point out how delighted he was, Varadkar was, Brussels was on its completion, how they want it passed, he wants it passed but the opposition do not for their own reasons.

He'll appeal for stability and an end to it and I suspect he'll get a big response.

Strazdas wrote: »

A GE would be risky for Johnson. The English hard right / far right / nationalists love him but he is hated by millions of others.....an overall majority is far from a given.

It's hard to imagine Labour Leavers voting for the likes of Johnson, Raab and Patel.

I agree but Labour leavers will vote for farage sadly. Just to cok a snoop at the bigwigs down south. They know it will do sweet damn all for them long term, but they'll get a little temporary fix out of it which is better than nothing.

Danzy wrote: »

This is the sort of loolah stuff that will have him get several terms.

He has circa 35 to 48% support in nearly all demographics, are we seriously pretending they are all far right?

It's a myth that he is extremely popular. His support is coming from hardcore Tory and Brexit Party types.

Millions of others in the UK hate him and wouldn't trust him for a moment. The Johnson supporters and the right wing press are very vocal though and giving the impression he is a popular and charismatic figure.

Danzy wrote: »

This is the sort of loolah stuff that will have him get several terms.

He has circa 35 to 48% support in nearly all demographics, are we seriously pretending they are all far right?

The Tories have turned into the well dressed, well educated posh hard right nationalists.

Just because they aren't skinhead England jersey wearing racists doesn't mean that can't be of the hard right.

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is the thing. The delays are pointless.

The Tories are on their way to a thumping majority anyway according to the polls.

They will have no problem getting the deal through then.

I remember how May was on her way to a thumping majority as well, with Labour on a projected 25% according to the polls. How did that work out for her?

liamtech wrote: »

Unless Labor and the Lib Dems co-operated in an election - this will go very badly in my opinion-
the only place 'remain' will win is Scotland -
Northern Ireland is not gonna assist remain due to the abstention of tshe republicans -

Swinson hates Corbyn and vice versa so a pact is out

and i cant see the Hard Brexit splitting between the Brexit Party and the Conservatives-

Does anyone see a way where a general election returns a remainer parliament??? given the polls

I think its too hard to call. People write off Corbyn and easy to see why, but he's a good campaigner and could surprise a few. Lot of young people registering, record numbers in fact, and they willl be split between lab, lib dem and green. So some hope i think, depending on how campaign can be framed and how alliances or lack of them work out. As for the polls, remember the magic figure of 22 i think it was - how many per cent corbyn was trailing in 2017. They were predicting a tory majority of 100 seats!

Enzokk wrote: »

I remember how May was on her way to a thumping majority as well, with Labour on a projected 25% according to the polls. How did that work out for her?

You do feel it's different this time though. May destroyed her own campaign with a disasterous manifesto that intended to tax the conservative base (elderly property owners) and that Labour as well as Mays enemies in the press successfully labeled the dementia tax. Along with other poor media performances, she killed her own chances.

Johnson on the other hand is a charming media performer with large segments of the right wing press not just onside (Mail) but seemingly unwavering in their full throated support (Telegraph). The cons will learn from last time and Johnson will campaign on an undeliverable populist manifesto, paid for from the equally mythical Brexit dividend.

Meanwhile Labour will remain tangled in knots over remain and the anti semitism "problem" which is really a proxy battle for control between the centerists and left wingers.

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The Tories have turned into the well dressed, well educated posh hard right nationalists.

Just because they aren't skinhead England jersey wearing racists doesn't mean that can't be of the hard right.

The English press is dominated by the hard right and anyone reading them would be under the impression Johnson is a much loved and charismatic figure, akin to Tony Blair circa 1997.

In truth, it's the angry OAPs and the xenophobic Brexit Party types who are buying into the cult of Boris. He's way too divisive to be a popular or unifying figure.

Hurrache wrote: »

Murmurings today from journalists reporting that some in the DUP are expressing regret for not supporting May's deal but instead trusting those who turned out to be English nationalists with only their own interests at heart.

Bridgen even had this to say
[url]

https://twitter.com/AmandaFBelfast/status/1186761748428283908?s=19[/url]

Naive fools. This follows from another Tory remarking sure that NI is nowhere near her constituency that someone linked to earlier.

The dup will be jumping back on the boris bus when they help attach the cu amendment to it, at which point Bridgen and his pals jump straight off again.

Strazdas wrote: »

The English press is dominated by the hard right and anyone reading them would be under the impression Johnson is a much loved and charismatic figure, akin to Tony Blair circa 1997.

In truth, it's the angry OAPs and the xenophobic Brexit Party types who are buying into the cult of Boris. He's way too divisive to be a popular or unifying figure.

He
Doesn't have to unify, he just has to win a majority.

Teresa May was in Tony Blair 97 election territory in 2017.

Looking at his figures in the YouGov poll , he may not be universally loved but he enjoys massive support from nearly every demographic, losing out slightly in 18 24 to Corbyn and only being a few points ahead in London.

He'll be delighted with his figures.
Pretending it means they are all hard right or false consciousness is the sort of guff that has Labour polling at about half the Tory rate in Working Class voters.

Strazdas wrote: »

A GE would be risky for Johnson. The English hard right / far right / nationalists love him but he is hated by millions of others.....an overall majority is far from a given.

It's hard to imagine Labour Leavers voting for the likes of Johnson, Raab and Patel.

Unfortunately and respectfully i disagree - a few points i will make

• Its clearly the dream of the remainers and labor that Farage splits the brexit vote, and therefore the conservatives across the board. I cannot see this happening. Even with BJ not agreeing to pact, the Brexit Party will campaign cleverly in weak tory seats - easy to see them taking the seats of ardently remain labor MPs from LEAVE MAJORITY seats - if the Tories lose anything to Farage and his crew it will be the 21 soft brexit pro remainers who are out of the party anyway - easy to slip in some of the MEP's like Lucy Harris and farage himself and take those seats - it will be proper electioneering on their part and i believe it could work
• Unfortunately Brexit has created a new and dangerous political cleavage among the british electorate. The way we feel passionately that brexit is a terrible idea, is mirrored (darkly) among Brexit Voting Labor supporters who have bought into the view of a corrupt undemocratic EU that is costing millions. i am concerned that the Brexit cleavage will over-ride typical left right politics for these voters and they will defect to either the tories - OR more probably the brexit party
• I feel like every time i make this point i need to qualify myself so in a nut shell (LEFTY - used to LOVE CORBYN - hate new labor champagne socialism etc et al) - But Corbyn has gone from being the savior of old labor, to its ultimate destroyer in my opinion - i dont care how magnificent a grass roots activist he is, the man is not a politician. His manifesto, if it goes ahead and i pray it doesnt, is laughable and would require a large diagram to explain. He says its principled. In fact it is a shambles that will only searve to freak people out - potentially remainers will vote against him to avoid his bizarre plan

Offering the British People another year of Brexit - Corbyn negotiating a new deal - then putting it to the people - but allowing practically his entire party to vote and campaign against it - insanity - i pray he doesnt do this

happy to discuss, but i am now seriously thinking remain is lost - unless there is some last gasp co-operation between remain parties - but with corbyn more interested in doing away with private schools - not gonna happen

liamtech wrote: »

Unfortunately and respectfully i disagree - a few points i will make

• Its clearly the dream of the remainers and labor that Farage splits the brexit vote, and therefore the conservatives across the board. I cannot see this happening. Even with BJ not agreeing to pact, the Brexit Party will campaign cleverly in weak tory seats - easy to see them taking the seats of ardently remain labor MPs from LEAVE MAJORITY seats - if the Tories lose anything to Farage and his crew it will be the 21 soft brexit pro remainers who are out of the party anyway - easy to slip in some of the MEP's like Lucy Harris and farage himself and take those seats - it will be proper electioneering on their part and i believe it could work
• Unfortunately Brexit has created a new and dangerous political cleavage among the british electorate. The way we feel passionately that brexit is a terrible idea, is mirrored (darkly) among Brexit Voting Labor supporters who have bought into the view of a corrupt undemocratic EU that is costing millions. i am concerned that the Brexit cleavage will over-ride typical left right politics for these voters and they will defect to either the tories - OR more probably the brexit party
• I feel like every time i make this point i need to qualify myself so in a nut shell (LEFTY - used to LOVE CORBYN - hate new labor champagne socialism etc et al) - But Corbyn has gone from being the savior of old labor, to its ultimate destroyer in my opinion - i dont care how magnificent a grass roots activist he is, the man is not a politician. His manifesto, if it goes ahead and i pray it doesnt, is laughable and would require a large diagram to explain. He says its principled. In fact it is a shambles that will only searve to freak people out - potentially remainers will vote against him to avoid his bizarre plan

Offering the British People another year of Brexit - Corbyn negotiating a new deal - then putting it to the people - but allowing practically his entire party to vote and campaign against it - insanity - i pray he doesnt do this

happy to discuss, but i am now seriously thinking remain is lost - unless there is some last gasp co-operation between remain parties - but with corbyn more interested in doing away with private schools - not gonna happen

Lot there to digest and some very compelling and thoughtful points.

Have no time to go deeply into it, but a couple of thoughts. Labours policies are very popular with voters, this has been commented on time and time again. Stuff like nationalisation of trains and other utilities is a vote winner, if they can get off brexit, even just a bit, they could make some headway. Admittedly thats a challenge!

Other challenge they have imo is tories are very patently stealing their clothes with all their ridiculous spending promises, which are full of lies, but which could sway enough target labour voters. The tories are even trying to claim themselves as the party of the nhs which tells you how far we've gone into a posttruth world. This stuff needs to be countered but remains to be seen how.

I do believe whoever fights the smartest, more progressive campaign will fare best and that's up for grabs. Will be a truly fascinating contest when it happens, that is for sure!