Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

woohoo!!! · 21-10-2019 04:43PM

So we can anticipate all sorts of amendments sought to be stuck onto the deal, unicorns one might suggest

Letwin_Larry · 21-10-2019 04:44PM

i think we're heading for a GE and/or 2nd Ref.
i cant see any other way out of this morass.

let the games commence .....

Danzy · 21-10-2019 04:46PM

woohoo!!! wrote: »

So we can anticipate all sorts of amendments sought to be stuck onto the deal, unicorns one might suggest

Enough to kill it as far as the EU and Johnson are concerned.

If it doesn't go through this week, it'll have to move to forcing a general election and is that possible.

Brussels will give him the time if they feel he can get a majority and it looks like he would.

If he doesn't this could go on for years.

Joe_ Public · 21-10-2019 04:49PM

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Apparently, there is also a gov study on effects of this bill on UK. Not going to be released until after the vote.. I wonder why...

What chance another conscientious whistleblower intervenes? Would be scoop of the decade for some reporter or paper.

threeball · 21-10-2019 04:51PM

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

i think we're heading for a GE and/or 2nd Ref.
i cant see any other way out of this morass.

let the games commence .....

Whatever a GE might solve, in that Boris might get a majority, a 2nd Referendum will only make things worse. If that happens you can expect civil unrest, years of politicians looking for 2nd and 3rd confirmatory referendums and god knows what else. Most the Brexiteers will be dead by the time it ends

devnull · 21-10-2019 04:53PM

Bercow has pointed out big own goal here by Cummings.

Because there has been Queen speech, then tabling
a motion for second referendum is permissible as its a different session but might not have been possible with no Queens speech.

Isn't Cummings supposed to be a genius?

threeball · 21-10-2019 04:55PM

devnull wrote: »

Bercow has pointed out big own goal here by Cummings.

Because there has been Queen speech, then tabling
a motion for second referendum is permissible as its a different session but might not have been possible with no Queens speech.

Isn't Cummings supposed to be a genius?

The lad is Bannon lite. Breitbart journalist is about his level.

GM228 · 21-10-2019 04:56PM

Good point made by Chris Leslie that Johnson's duties under the Benn Act go beyond that of simply sending the letter, a point often overlooked (especially in recent days), and of course deflected by Barclay.

He has a duty under the Act to "seek to obtain an extension", best endeavour and good faith must be used to seek and obtain an extension, it's no wonder the Scottish courts are still staying on this until the end of the month.

Danzy · 21-10-2019 04:56PM

devnull wrote: »

Bercow has pointed out big own goal here by Cummings.

Because there has been Queen speech, then tabling
a motion for second referendum is permissible as its a different session but might not have been possible with no Queens speech.

Isn't Cummings supposed to be a genius?

2nd referendum is unlikely to pass.

This is hardly a revelation though on motions in different sessions.

Danzy · 21-10-2019 05:00PM

GM228 wrote: »

Good point made by Kris Leslie that Johnson's duties under the Benn Act go beyond that of simply sending the letter, a point often overlooked (especially in recent days).

He has a duty under the Act to "seek to obtain an extension", best endeavour and good faith must be used to seek and obtain an extension, it's no wonder the Scottish courts are still staying on this until the end of the month.

The EU are going to try not to give an extension, that would make the deal less likely to pass.

The German foreign minister said a short, technical extension to facilitate the deal being passed is all they are onsidering at the moment.

He did however say a longer one may be looked at in time if the parliament continues to not ratify.

Presumably to facilitate an election.

Letwin_Larry · 21-10-2019 05:01PM

Danzy wrote: »

2nd referendum is unlikely to pass.

This is hardly a revelation though on motions in different sessions.

let's have a 3nd ref.
if nothing else it'll be great craic.

GM228 · 21-10-2019 05:02PM

Danzy wrote: »

The EU are going to try not to give an extension, that would make the deal less likely to pass.

The EU27 don't "try", they either agree to an extension or they don't, what makes you think they will try not to? We really do not know what way it will go, but when you have prominent members like Merkel saying an extension will come I put more weight on statements like hers.

briany · 21-10-2019 05:06PM

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

let's have a 3nd ref.
if nothing else it'll be great craic.

The 1st ref was introduced by a majority Commons vote. A second ref would be introduced by the same means, as would a third. So, you have these Brexiteers who go, "Oh, well why not have 5 referendums?", and I say that the UK can have 5 referendums so long as there is the parliamentary majority to trigger each one.

Joe_ Public · 21-10-2019 05:09PM

Was interesting to read in FT that merkel made it a point to warn Johnson not to use threat of no extension to help his deal through at the summit last week. "Dont put words in our mouth," it quoted her saying. She is wise to all the tricks and will be aware of the continued danger of no deal. I have little doubt the responsible action will be done which is a long enough extension to fulfill what parliament decides this week.

is_that_so · 21-10-2019 05:09PM

GM228 wrote: »

The EU27 don't "try", they either agree to an extension or they don't, what makes you think they will try not to? We really do not know what way it will go, but when you have prominent members like Merkel saying an extension will come I put more weight on statements like hers.

They'll do nothing until they are required to. As McGuinness said there's no urgency especially with the shambles of parliamentary democracy that exists in Britain.

Chips Lovell · 21-10-2019 05:10PM

Mod Note

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GM228 · 21-10-2019 05:11PM

is_that_so wrote: »

They'll do nothing until they are required to. As McGuinness said there's no urgency especially with the shambles of parliamentary democracy that exists in Britain.

They are required to consider the request and give an answer, nothing more.

briany · 21-10-2019 05:11PM

thecretinhop wrote: »

he is an absolute clown who is literally running the chair as his own remainer onclave, he has a pro remain sticker on his car he is meant to be unbiased is he fk.
he was on turgidity like a performing parrot for ffs

That was his wife's car, although I agree that he should have thought about taking the sticker off. Whatever Bercow's personal views on Brexit are, he wouldn't be so stupid as to loudly proclaim his bias.

As for Bercow running a remainer enclave from the speaker's chair, I'm sure Conservative MPs are welcome to find his actions unconstitutional if they wish. The UK government's actions in trying to prorogue parliament for 5 weeks was found to be illegal. Let the UK government similarly find the speaker's actions illegal, if they can do.

Zubeneschamali · 21-10-2019 05:11PM

Brexit Secretary Barclay has admitted that NI businesses will need EU paperwork to "export" to Britain.

Will the DUP change sides to Remain? They certainly should, to be consistent.

Danzy · 21-10-2019 05:14PM

GM228 wrote: »

The EU27 don't "try", they either agree to an extension or they don't, what makes you think they will try not to? We really do not know what way it will go, but when you have prominent members like Merkel saying an extension will come I put more weight on statements like hers.

They aren't going to rush to give it, they are going for maximum pressure on MPs to get the deal oover the line.

They will give it, no doubt there but there but they do not hide their impatience or their desire to get this deal passed, as the German foreign minister said, the commons needs to take responsibility for this deal and an orderly Brexit.

Joe_ Public · 21-10-2019 05:14PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Brexit Secretary Barclay has admitted that NI businesses will need EU paperwork to "export" to Britain.

Will the DUP change sides to Remain? They certainly should, to be consistent.

Thought so but they dont seem to be behind the amendments for some reason. Thought they would be chomping at the bit for a uk wide CU in the circumstances. But apparently not if what they say is to be believed.

Nody · 21-10-2019 05:15PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Brexit Secretary Barclay has admitted that NI businesses will need EU paperwork to "export" to Britain.

Will the DUP change sides to Remain? They certainly should, to be consistent.

No they will argue for a no deal Brexit instead so they can suffer equally as much as the mainland instead; because that's preferable compared to be on the same side of an argument with Sin Fein. Besides since when have DUP actually changed opinion on something? If No Deal is good enough for the Englishmen then it's good enough for Northern Ireland!

dublinman1990 · 21-10-2019 05:20PM

threeball wrote: »

Whatever a GE might solve, in that Boris might get a majority, a 2nd Referendum will only make things worse. If that happens you can expect civil unrest, years of politicians looking for 2nd and 3rd confirmatory referendums and god knows what else. Most the Brexiteers will be dead by the time it ends

Really. What type of group will start off this civil unrest in the UK if & when a 2nd referendum gets approved by parliament? Will it be hard Brexiteers or Remainers who will begin this trouble? To my mind Remainers this weekend didn't seem to have an appetite to bring civil unrest to the UK's streets when proceedings had taken place inside parliament on Saturday. The crowds attending The People's Vote rally outside parliament on that day were very civilized & peaceful about the whole thing.

Duane Dibbley · 21-10-2019 05:21PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Brexit Secretary Barclay has admitted that NI businesses will need EU paperwork to "export" to Britain.

Will the DUP change sides to Remain? They certainly should, to be consistent.

What difference will it make?

ToBeFrank123 · 21-10-2019 05:22PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Brexit Secretary Barclay has admitted that NI businesses will need EU paperwork to "export" to Britain.

Will the DUP change sides to Remain? They certainly should, to be consistent.

The DUP are beginning to look like complete fools from all of this.

Their plan from Brexit was to create an even closer union with the UK and it has backfired spectacularly. Now they are left in No Mans land, despised by everyone.

10000maniacs · 21-10-2019 05:24PM

Danzy wrote: »

There is a deal that Brussels and Dublin are reasonably happy with.

That the British Gov't are reasonably happy with.

It has a good chance of passing.

2nd referendums and all the trouble that entails for ourselves and the EU, nevermind Britain, other bills do not have enough support.

Get this passed needs to be the message from Brussels and they are letting it be known that they are frustrated that it hasn't been passed.

Ireland will be fine as long as there is no hard border and they can trade freely with the UK
The Tories will be fine because they are reckless disaster capitalists and charlatans.
The EU will be fine because it protects the single market.
But what about the UK citizens who can smell the coffee and know that the whole thing is going to be a disaster?

Zubeneschamali · 21-10-2019 05:26PM

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

What difference will it make?

It'll mean frictionless trade with the Republic and red-tape and paperwork for trade with Scotland or England.

Does that sound like NI is still an equal member of the United Kingdom?

Since that is the DUPs entire reason for existence, they can never back this deal.

GM228 · 21-10-2019 05:41PM

The ball is in the UKs court:-

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1186295769508302850?s=19

Most likely the EP will follow the advice.

dublinman1990 · 21-10-2019 05:41PM

https://twitter.com/JP_Biz/status/1186314537638776832

From John Campbell; BBC NI Economics & Business Editor

He reported here from one study released from NI's Dept for the Economy commissioned from the Fraser of Allander Institute is suggesting a 2.7% hit in GDP for NI under BJ's new deal which is only slightly worse when NI is going through the effects of a no deal Brexit.

Here is the study in more detail.

JRM has just read the business statement for parliament this week. MP's are now discussing it in Parliament.

lawred2 · 21-10-2019 05:43PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If the result was overturned in the UK I think that will be the 5th time a vote against the EU by referendum has been overturned including in France, the Netherlands and Ireland.

Don't know about anyone else but i'm spotting a trend here...

I'm spotting a trend alright

And it's with your recent posts..

Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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