Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

FrancieBrady · 18-10-2019 05:24PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

I have no time for the majority of the UK government and have always been against brexit but the EU have gone from a position of "that's the deal which is non negotiable"to making a u turn with regards to the backstop.
I make this point as a remainer who is very disappointed the EU have in fact "blinked"which they said they would never do.

You too think the EU 'has crumbled'??? Hold on until I get you Sammy Wilson's number.

Tea Shock · 18-10-2019 05:28PM

Enzokk wrote: »

Sam Gyimah just stated the voting for the deal tomorrow doesn't stop this ride, it only intensifies it. The plan is for no-deal if the ERG are at the wheel.

James Cleverly, a less apt surname if there ever was one (reason to follow), thinks that this strategy needs some serious mental gymnastics to arrive at.

https://twitter.com/JamesCleverly/status/1185172811159146496?s=20

The problem for Cleverly is that this plan was spelled out in front everyone.

https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1185129387500421122?s=20

Another MP thinking the people are stupid and should be treated as such. If Labour allows this vote to pass tomorrow then I would not be sad to see them lose more seats in the next election. I cannot see one reason why any Labour MP would vote for this deal, there are a lot of bad reasons but no good reason for a Labour MP to go anywhere near this deal.

While they can still go for no deal regardless of the result tomorrow (if it's even voted upon), this thing passing makes a Tory majority in the upcoming election more likely - that therefore makes no deal more likely.

Conspicuous by its absence in mainstream media that I have seen today is any word at all about what John Baron said.

Tea Shock · 18-10-2019 05:30PM

Breaking: Court of sessions have rejected the legal challenge to the agreement

That was so expected, most media aren't bothered with that either

Christy Sweets · 18-10-2019 05:30PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It's what happens when a well-educated and intelligent man becomes consumed by hubris. He's delighted with the way he turned out.

Raab may well be "well-educated", but I wouldn't call him intelligent.

CelticRambler · 18-10-2019 05:31PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

the EU have gone from a position of "that's the deal which is non negotiable"to making a u turn with regards to the backstop.
I make this point as a remainer who is very disappointed the EU have in fact "blinked"which they said they would never do.

That's not entirely fair: the original WA included the backstop only "unless and until alternative arrangements" could be put in place. This new-ish Northern Ireland Protocol is exactly that - an alternative arrangement, which can be put in place a lot sooner than originally intended.

I happen to think it contains potentially fatal flaws (time will tell) and penalises the unionist community (but that is inevitable in any compromise due to their own irreconcilable demands) ... but when Johnson erased May's red line concerning the Irish Sea border, the EU was being entirely consistent in agreeing to revisit May's WA.

When all is said and done, they've only re-written what? 10% of May's WA. That's not even a quarter turn, never mind a full 180° U!

GM228 · 18-10-2019 05:32PM

Today's Scottish case has failed.

Judgement here:-

https://www.scotcourts.gov.uk/search-judgments/judgment?id=78d076a7-8980-69d2-b500-ff0000d74aa7

Tell me how · 18-10-2019 05:36PM

Dymo wrote: »

There are a number of UK politicians coming out of brexit as complete clowns and Raab has to be up there with these comments with his constant reiterating that the EU will crumble at the last minute and as his stint as Brexit Minister.

Closely followed by David Davis (Who has gotten very old looking recently) and Ian Duncan Smyth.

Surely a massive influence on how we perceive politicians is the influence of modern day media.
Twitter, in particular has been incredible throughout this, the speed at which comments, quotes and threads has appeared in to the public domain has never been seen before.

I bet many of the states people we saw as being very strong in the past might have appeared differently under such scrutiny.

J Mysterio · 18-10-2019 05:36PM

This idea that to get to No Deal, you accept the deal is baffling.

FrancieBrady · 18-10-2019 05:43PM

CelticRambler wrote: »

That's not entirely fair: the original WA included the backstop only "unless and until alternative arrangements" could be put in place. This new-ish Northern Ireland Protocol is exactly that - an alternative arrangement, which can be put in place a lot sooner than originally intended.

I happen to think it contains potentially fatal flaws (time will tell) and penalises the unionist community (but that is inevitable in any compromise due to their own irreconcilable demands) ... but when Johnson erased May's red line concerning the Irish Sea border, the EU was being entirely consistent in agreeing to revisit May's WA.

When all is said and done, they've only re-written what? 10% of May's WA. That's not even a quarter turn, never mind a full 180° U!

I think the fact it points the spotlight directly at those who 'want' a hard border on the island is a piece of genius tbh.

It was Varadkar that suggested it to Johnson at their Liverpool meet according to the Irish Times last night.

It firmly puts responsibility into the hands of the people on this island, which is the genius part, there is no hiding behind Westminster, Dublin, the EU, The 'Union' or anything else. And it kicks in straight away.
If you want a Hard Border you have to come out front and centre and campaign/or vote for it.

Have at it, whoever wants to own that one.

LuckyLloyd · 18-10-2019 05:51PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

This idea that to get to No Deal, you accept the deal is baffling.

Actually, it is a more mature position. In that scenario No Deal crashout does not have NI security implications. Also unicorns about maybe being able to leverage a further 18 months of prep and potential US trade interest.

No Deal now is dangerous and indefensible.

They’re still crazy and deluded and wrong but hey - fair to say it makes some sense all the same.

jimmycrackcorm · 18-10-2019 05:53PM

humberklog wrote: »

I was listening to Andrew Bridgen (Con. MP, Nth. Lcst. Little Englander, Farage Mole) on the BBC this morning espousing the great bright future for GB.
He was talking up being master of their domain and now how they'll be able to compete with ireland re taxation and how he can't wait for the likes of FB, Amazon etc. to leave Ireland in their droves for the green and pleasant land of Blighty.

Neighbourly sort of fella.

Wouldn't it be nice if someone asked him how... Given that both Ireland and the UK are both currently in the EU, why amazon, fb et all aren't already doing that.

Let alone pointing out that amazon just has a data centre here while having a huge sales presence and distribution in the UK.

Varta · 18-10-2019 05:54PM

Another Labour Yes. Onn. I wonder if the DUP think it's going to pass will they jump onto the bandwagon?

LuckyLloyd · 18-10-2019 05:55PM

Varta wrote: »

Another Labour Yes. Onn. I wonder if the DUP think it's going to pass will they jump onto the bandwagon?

They may abstain

Strazdas · 18-10-2019 06:04PM

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Donaldson on Radio Ulster this evening was sounding a bit down. He confirmed that they will still be voting against it.
I can't see them abstaining. They won't be abstaining. "We don't abstain on the union".

If the deal goes through tomorrow (and it may well do), this will be a disaster for the DUP.

Enzokk · 18-10-2019 06:10PM

I don't know if a deal gets through tomorrow, but it will only get through with Labour votes. Nobody will care about the Tories voting for it, but Labour will get the blame. Some may say this would be fair for Corbyn's lackadaisical attitude towards Brexit and I think that would be fair criticism.

It would be some kind of justice if Labour gets slaughtered by the Lib Dems at the polls because their MPs allowed Brexit to happen and because Corbyn seemed like he didn't care that much. We could see the Lib Dems a comfortable opposition in the next election as they will be the party to rejoin and it will give remainers a landing point and as the crises deepens, possible no-deal if no FTA reached by 2021, they will pick up even more votes.

RobMc59 · 18-10-2019 06:14PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You too think the EU 'has crumbled'??? Hold on until I get you Sammy Wilson's number.

Both sides have made concessions ,which is good if you want the UK to leave.
If the EU had refused to budge as they have constantly said then the UK would have been faced with the prospect of no deal or revoke imo No one wanted a no deal crash out,it was just a threat used against the EU which appears to have worked.
Does this deal really suit anyone?As a British person I'm disappointed and judging from the reaction on this forum the general Irish consensus is its disappointing.

RobMc59 · 18-10-2019 06:20PM

CelticRambler wrote: »

That's not entirely fair: the original WA included the backstop only "unless and until alternative arrangements" could be put in place. This new-ish Northern Ireland Protocol is exactly that - an alternative arrangement, which can be put in place a lot sooner than originally intended.

I happen to think it contains potentially fatal flaws (time will tell) and penalises the unionist community (but that is inevitable in any compromise due to their own irreconcilable demands) ... but when Johnson erased May's red line concerning the Irish Sea border, the EU was being entirely consistent in agreeing to revisit May's WA.

When all is said and done, they've only re-written what? 10% of May's WA. That's not even a quarter turn, never mind a full 180° U!

I don't care what the DUP think tbh,I had hoped the EU had pushed Johnson into a corner which would have led to his downfall,this deal allows him to remain in power which isn't good for anyone-imagine him and trump scheming together-it doesn't bear thinking about!

Varta · 18-10-2019 06:26PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

Both sides have made concessions ,which is good if you want the UK to leave.
If the EU had refused to budge as they have constantly said then the UK would have been faced with the prospect of no deal or revoke imo No one wanted a no deal crash out,it was just a threat used against the EU which appears to have worked.
Does this deal really suit anyone?As a British person I'm disappointed and judging from the reaction on this forum the general Irish consensus is its disappointing.

But that would have been the EU interfering in UK affairs and not on.

FrancieBrady · 18-10-2019 06:28PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

Both sides have made concessions ,which is good if you want the UK to leave.
If the EU had refused to budge as they have constantly said then the UK would have been faced with the prospect of no deal or revoke imo No one wanted a no deal crash out,it was just a threat used against the EU which appears to have worked.
Does this deal really suit anyone?As a British person I'm disappointed and judging from the reaction on this forum the general Irish consensus is its disappointing.

The EU only said they would not reopen negotiation unless (important word) substantive alternatives were presented.

They were and it turns out (according to Irish Times) that it was Ireland who threw Boris the lifeline on Northern Ireland

Varta · 18-10-2019 06:31PM

Enzokk wrote: »

I don't know if a deal gets through tomorrow, but it will only get through with Labour votes. Nobody will care about the Tories voting for it, but Labour will get the blame. Some may say this would be fair for Corbyn's lackadaisical attitude towards Brexit and I think that would be fair criticism.

It would be some kind of justice if Labour gets slaughtered by the Lib Dems at the polls because their MPs allowed Brexit to happen and because Corbyn seemed like he didn't care that much. We could see the Lib Dems a comfortable opposition in the next election as they will be the party to rejoin and it will give remainers a landing point and as the crises deepens, possible no-deal if no FTA reached by 2021, they will pick up even more votes.

Labour needs an upheaval. Corbyn and his followers are dinosaurs, there is no place for them in the 21st century. The working class would be better represented if labour were to come out of the 1970s. I don't believe the Lib Dems will increase that much and in the election following the next one, providing Labour has sorted itself out, the Lib Dems will just about disappear.

road_high · 18-10-2019 06:32PM

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

They may abstain

They won’t abstain- they’re petty and vindictive and bitter to the core. Great to see BoJo completely bypassing them now - hugely damages any lingering goodwill and makes the DUP irrelevant going forward with very few allies. All political capital up in smoke and all self inflicted

Water John · 18-10-2019 06:34PM

Philip Hammond is spooked by those Brexiteers who are saying it's a way to a No Deal next year. He won't support it ATM. This could mean a number of the Ex Tories baulking.

GM228 · 18-10-2019 06:34PM

Latest Brexit election map shows a 5 vote lead:-

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1185241744625098752?s=19

devnull · 18-10-2019 06:39PM

GM228 wrote: »

Latest Brexit election map shows a 5 vote lead:-

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1185241744625098752?s=19

That looks a bit optimistic to me in terms of who is judged to be doing what.

A good number of those who are undecided I can't see voting for anything other than against, and once you factor that in then they're losing.

RobMc59 · 18-10-2019 06:41PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The EU only said they would not reopen negotiation unless (important word) substantive alternatives were presented.

They were and it turns out (according to Irish Times) that it was Ireland who threw Boris the lifeline on Northern Ireland

I agree that when the chips were down Ireland helped the UK out of the hole they had dug for themselves.If the UK leaves I would much rather it was on friendly terms with Ireland who are Britain's closest friend(which the UK government could see if they removed the scales from their eyes!)

10000maniacs · 18-10-2019 06:42PM

GM228 wrote: »

Latest Brexit election map shows a 5 vote lead:-

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1185241744625098752?s=19

Johnson still has a lot of persuading to do to get 320 votes. I would guess he will be 20-30 short.

Joe_ Public · 18-10-2019 06:43PM

Those voting breakdowns all show Philip Lee voting for a deal even though hes a Lib Dem mp. How can he be voting yes? I cant believe thats right, theyd surely never have let him join party as a brexit backer.

Imreoir2 · 18-10-2019 06:49PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

Both sides have made concessions ,which is good if you want the UK to leave.
If the EU had refused to budge as they have constantly said then the UK would have been faced with the prospect of no deal or revoke imo No one wanted a no deal crash out,it was just a threat used against the EU which appears to have worked.
Does this deal really suit anyone?As a British person I'm disappointed and judging from the reaction on this forum the general Irish consensus is its disappointing.

This assumes the EU were interested in forcing the UK to stay, I don't think the EU wants the UK to stay at this point, least of all a UK full of resentment over EU strongarming.

Headshot · 18-10-2019 06:52PM

I found this for the timeline tomorrow and what Amendments are up for motion

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-50095368

Going to be fascinating to see what Amendments Bercow picks

CelticRambler · 18-10-2019 07:03PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

I had hoped the EU had pushed Johnson into a corner which would have led to his downfall,this deal allows him to remain in power which isn't good for anyone

But the EU did push him into a corner (well, more like he backed himself into it). But, to switch metaphors, like any animal trapped in a snare, he had no choice but to chew his leg off - NI/DUP being the metaphorical leg. Remember, this is the guy who went to their conference only last month, and in front of an adoring crowd, promised everything he's just signed away.

You'll just have to hope that this is his "Ukraine-gate" moment, and he'll follow Trump down the spiral of unelectability (the UK media has skimmed over just about all the madness of King Donald of the last week. 8-minute recap here )

Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Comments