Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

farmchoice · 10-10-2019 04:55PM

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

I'm going to take a wild stab at this one. Any new proposal the DUP will say No to.

if they did a deal, singed and sealed tomorrow, with parliament prorogued there is not enough time to debate a queens speech then debate and pass a revised WA and then pass all the necessary legislation before the 31st.

so i dont think this is about doing a deal now, its abut giving the impression that there is a deal to be done in the extension following an election the dup will be removed from the equation.

prawnsambo · 10-10-2019 04:57PM

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

I'm going to take a wild stab at this one. Any new proposal the DUP will say No to.

The DUP walked themselves into this (if it's NI only backstop) by agreeing to SM rules applying to Ni only. And maybe that's them being pragmatic for once. The dogs in the street know that their current stance was losing them support. Polling was showing them under pressure for three Westminster seats.

ToBeFrank123 · 10-10-2019 04:57PM

You can't really rely on the ERG or DUP to get a deal through. I think the ERG would be happy enough with No Deal.

Johnson will need some Labour votes and it would be great if Corbyn decided to back a deal. The bigger the numbers voting for it, the more the DUP and ERG will have to fall into line, as they thrive on division.

Panrich · 10-10-2019 04:58PM

And here is the rowback from the other side..

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1182322838532952065

It looks like there might be two paths that diverged.

Quin_Dub · 10-10-2019 05:06PM

Johnson absolutely does not want a deal before an election.

If he gets a deal , then Farage et al will hound him as a "traitor" or some such and cause the Tories to lose a bunch of seats

He needs to be "forced" to send the letter , get the extension and then campaign on "New Perfect deal or No Deal" which allow him to potentially shut-down both sides - He can cover the BP voters by telling them that No Deal is back on the table and he can cover the other Leavers by telling them that the Unicorn Covered Sunny uplands are just in sight.

Once he gets his majority without the DUP he does the only deal possible.

** This is his plan , how grounded in reality it is is an entirely different question.

farmchoice · 10-10-2019 05:09PM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Johnson absolutely does not want a deal before an election.

If he gets a deal , then Farage et al will hound him as a "traitor" or some such and cause the Tories to lose a bunch of seats

He needs to be "forced" to send the letter , get the extension and then campaign on "New Perfect deal or No Deal" which allow him to potentially shut-down both sides - He can cover the BP voters by telling them that No Deal is back on the table and he can cover the other Leavers by telling them that the Unicorn Covered Sunny uplands are just in sight.

Once he gets his majority without the DUP he does the only deal possible.

** This is his plan , how grounded in reality it is is an entirely different question.

agreed,talking out of both sides of his mount is providing quite successful for him so far, whilst at the same time setting Cummings up as the bad guy.

farmchoice · 10-10-2019 05:16PM

farmchoice wrote: »

it is a strange one, i reckon the Irish have a reason for having this meeting that will become apparent later.

i doubt it is just leo trying to save the day. Number 10 has briefed pretty shamelessly against the Irish this week maybe merrion st have had enough and are going to get their retaliation in first this time.
or perhaps they are happy to take the blame from the torys and pretty much finally collapse the talks thereby forcing boris into taking a position on what he is going to do next.
all the anti Leo anti Irish thing in the papers is not doing one bit of harm to Leo or to Ireland, if anything it is good for Leo from a domestic point of view, the more the Brits deride him and lie about him the more respect he gets at home for not backing down.

i think this is what they are doing Irish briefing ''deal on'' now the Brits have to pour cold water on it.

fash · 10-10-2019 05:23PM

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

At this stage, we need to agree a deal because I don't think No Deal is a viable option. As I posted yesterday, the Irish Central Bank have estimated 110,000 job loses and 6% drop in growth which would put us into recession. And they can hardly be accused of being part of Project Fear.

No we do not. We accepted a bad border deal 100 years ago- and thousands are dead because of it and it resulted in vast economic damage. No deal is better then a bad deal.
Furthermore, 6% spread over several years is little when we are growing at 8% p.a. and 110k at risk jobs is little when we've picked up 200k in the last 2 years alone.
Furthermore, much of that harm happens no matter the form of brexit.
So why pay the price of an eternity living with a bad border to avoid a short term minor/moderate economic set back?

The high horse brigade · 10-10-2019 05:25PM

So what have I missed today then? Can someone give a brief synopsis, I can't trust the media

liamtech · 10-10-2019 05:25PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

So Pat Leahy seems to think that there's been movement on the CU, but no idea if Varadkar has offered something in return. But even if this is true and there's movement towards a deal, parliament is now shut, it can only re-open with a QS and there's very little likelihood of that being passed, so it kind of seems a bit moot.

Are the British Press deliberately up-playing the Johnson Varadkar Meeting? I listened to Sky News live at about 3:30 and they described (words to the effect)

Significant Progress
Can See a pathway to a deal

and yet

Caution weariness on briefs of a 3h private meet between @BorisJohnson and @LeoVaradkar. 2/ Absolutely clear that UK position - that its customs territory remains intact - remains.

from Mujtaba Rahman

If there is a 'break though' what could it actually be? Catching up but interested in the opinions

fash · 10-10-2019 05:39PM

liamtech wrote: »

prawnsambo wrote: »

So Pat Leahy seems to think that there's been movement on the CU, but no idea if Varadkar has offered something in return. But even if this is true and there's movement towards a deal, parliament is now shut, it can only re-open with a QS and there's very little likelihood of that being passed, so it kind of seems a bit moot.

Are the British Press deliberately up-playing the Johnson Varadkar Meeting? I listened to Sky News live at about 3:30 and they described (words to the effect)
Significant Progress

Can See a pathway to a deal

and yet

Caution weariness on briefs of a 3h private meet between @BorisJohnson and @LeoVaradkar. 2/ Absolutely clear that UK position - that its customs territory remains intact - remains.

from Mujtaba Rahman

If there is a 'break though' what could it actually be? Catching up but interested in the opinions

The upbeat is coming from Varadkar.
https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1182328414864203777
Frankly from my perspective, the more upbeat the Irish, the less upbeat the reality. Because the upbeat is then a big spin that the UK will find hard to counteract. How does Cummings spin this "we're really positive, we can definitely come to an agreement and we are on a great path- it will just take a few weeks (past 31st October)"?
Whereas if there was a secret actual deal shafting (e.g.) DUP, then I would expect them to keep quiet.

prawnsambo · 10-10-2019 05:40PM

fash wrote: »

No we do not. We accepted a bad border deal 100 years ago- and thousands are dead because of it and it resulted in vast economic damage. No deal is better then a bad deal.
Furthermore, 6% spread over several years is little when we are growing at 8% p.a. and 110k at risk jobs is little when we've picked up 200k in the last 2 years alone.
Furthermore, much of that harm happens no matter the form of brexit.
So why pay the price of an eternity living with a bad border to avoid a short term minor/moderate economic set back?

This. Very much this. May's deal was effectively a no deal brexit from our point of view, just with a stay of execution. Eventually the same damage would occur, but it would be spread out a bit longer. It was barely the lesser of two evils.

Tell me how · 10-10-2019 05:41PM

fash wrote: »

The upbeat is coming from Varadkar.
Frankly from my perspective, the more upbeat the Irish, the less upbeat the reality. Because the upbeat is then a big spin that the UK will find hard to counteract. How does Cummings spin this "we're really positive, we can definitely come to an agreement and we are on a great path- it will just take a few weeks (past 31st October)"?
Whereas if there was a secret actual deal shafting (e.g.) DUP, then I would expect them to keep quiet.

It could be part of the wider game where no one expects there to be a deal but Ireland, the EU are suggesting they are open to try to control the narrative instead of giving UK media free reign to label the EU as intransigent.

cameramonkey · 10-10-2019 05:49PM

The Brits will tell the Irish don't worry lads you will get everything you need, we just need to keep it under our hats and will sort it all out next week. Leo will probably believe that but its a old Brit ploy. It means nothing until you get it in writing with BJ announcing to all and sundry, even at that you cant trust him. Next week all that Leo thought that Brits had conceded to will magically vanish. This is the British way in negotiations no one should be fooled by todays charade.

They will not do a deal now when they have to deal with the real power brokers in Europe later, why would they concede now?

Leo was handy to bounce a few ideas off and then send him on his merry way thinking he has got a deal of sorts. He is not a serious operator as far as the Brits are concerned.

Imreoir2 · 10-10-2019 05:55PM

cameramonkey wrote: »

The Brits will tell the Irish don't worry lads you will get everything you need, we just need to keep it under our hats and will sort it all out next week. Leo will probably believe that but its a old Brit ploy. It means nothing until you get it in writing with BJ announcing to all and sundry, even at that you cant trust him. Next week all that Leo thought that Brits had conceded to will magically vanish. This is the British way in negotiations no one should be fooled by todays charade.

They will not do a deal now when they have to deal with the real power brokers in Europe later, why would they concede now?

Leo was handy to bounce a few ideas off and then send him on his merry way thinking he has got a deal of sorts. He is not a serious operator as far as the Brits are concerned.

I can't see how this is going to do the British any good. The cold realities of the British position will still be just as hard as they always have been. They can't get a deal until Ireland is satisified on the question of the border. Give Leo a false story today, and you are exactly where you were yesterday when that is revealed, except of course that you have burnt even more of whatever shred of good will remains on the Irish and EU side of the table.

prawnsambo · 10-10-2019 05:56PM

cameramonkey wrote: »

The Brits will tell the Irish don't worry lads you will get everything you need, we just need to keep it under our hats and will sort it all out next week. Leo will probably believe that but its a old Brit ploy. It means nothing until you get it in writing with BJ announcing to all and sundry, even at that you cant trust him. Next week all that Leo thought that Brits had conceded to will magically vanish. This is the British way in negotiations no one should be fooled by todays charade.

They will not do a deal now when they have to deal with the real power brokers in Europe later, why would they concede now?

Leo was handy to bounce a few ideas off and then send him on his merry way thinking he has got a deal of sorts. He is not a serious operator as far as the Brits are concerned.

This makes zero sense. You do know that the European Council makes the decision on a WA, of which Leo has one of the votes? Johnson bailing on whatever he's discussed or agreed today will get him exactly nowhere.

moon2 · 10-10-2019 05:59PM

cameramonkey wrote: »

The Brits will tell the Irish don't worry lads you will get everything you need, we just need to keep it under our hats and will sort it all out next week. Leo will probably believe that but its a old Brit ploy. It means nothing until you get it in writing with BJ announcing to all and sundry, even at that you cant trust him. Next week all that Leo thought that Brits had conceded to will magically vanish. This is the British way in negotiations no one should be fooled by todays charade.

They will not do a deal now when they have to deal with the real power brokers in Europe later, why would they concede now?

Leo was handy to bounce a few ideas off and then send him on his merry way thinking he has got a deal of sorts. He is not a serious operator as far as the Brits are concerned.

This assumes the government are completely naive. Despite the weeks of lies and retractions from the UK you're assuming that our government well and truly believe that this is on the road to be resolved and the UK are on board.

Perhaps a more accurate reading of the events of today would be to assume everyone is aware of the (apparent) lies which spread from Boris and his team, and this is a way to put Ireland/Europe ahead of the next round of "Europe collapsed the talks" finger pointing.

davedanon · 10-10-2019 06:00PM

cameramonkey wrote: »

The Brits will tell the Irish don't worry lads you will get everything you need, we just need to keep it under our hats and will sort it all out next week. Leo will probably believe that but its a old Brit ploy. It means nothing until you get it in writing with BJ announcing to all and sundry, even at that you cant trust him. Next week all that Leo thought that Brits had conceded to will magically vanish. This is the British way in negotiations no one should be fooled by todays charade.

They will not do a deal now when they have to deal with the real power brokers in Europe later, why would they concede now?

Leo was handy to bounce a few ideas off and then send him on his merry way thinking he has got a deal of sorts. He is not a serious operator as far as the Brits are concerned.

The tired old 'little Leo will do as he's told by his masters in Germany and France' trope again? Why would Leo be trying to strike a deal with Boris as some sort of junior partner? We are the EU. The EU is us. This patronising nonsense about the 'power relationship' between the big and small EU nations is really annoying. The second a big EU nation bullies a smaller one around, the whole project is as good as dead. Every EU nation has an equal say, and an equal vote. Why can't people get their heads around this?

I don't know what was going on today, probably just some political manoeuvring, and the reported movement on the British side, if true, is the only other plausible expanation. Leo did not go over there cap in hand to get fobbed off by some Boris bull****, that's for sure.

fash · 10-10-2019 06:00PM

cameramonkey wrote: »

The Brits will tell the Irish don't worry lads you will get everything you need, we just need to keep it under our hats and will sort it all out next week. Leo will probably believe that but its a old Brit ploy. It means nothing until you get it in writing with BJ announcing to all and sundry, even at that you cant trust him. Next week all that Leo thought that Brits had conceded to will magically vanish. This is the British way in negotiations no one should be fooled by todays charade.

They will not do a deal now when they have to deal with the real power brokers in Europe later, why would they concede now?

Leo was handy to bounce a few ideas off and then send him on his merry way thinking he has got a deal of sorts. He is not a serious operator as far as the Brits are concerned.

I don't think so- I'd see positivity from Leo being about sabotaging negative narratives from the UK - which in and of itself is not a great sign as why would you be worried about negating narratives if there is something good - etc.
I seriously doubt it is because Leo is "nice but dim and simple".

Frank Bullitt · 10-10-2019 06:09PM

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1182314519416184839

We can always depend on Tony.

briany · 10-10-2019 06:17PM

Given the UK government's track record on general honesty, I'd be concerned that Johnson's just promising things in order to give the impression that things are moving forward and therefore not have to ask for the extension. And that would be highly dangerous.

Zubeneschamali · 10-10-2019 06:20PM

briany wrote: »

I'd be concerned that Johnson's just promising things in order to give the impression that things are moving forward and therefore not have to ask for the extension.

He has to ask for the extension unless he gets a deal, it's the law.

And even if he gets a deal, he'll have to ask for an extension anyway, there isn't time to put any deal in place before the 31st.

Strazdas · 10-10-2019 06:23PM

briany wrote: »

Given the UK government's track record on general honesty, I'd be concerned that Johnson's just promising things in order to give the impression that things are moving forward and therefore not have to ask for the extension. And that would be highly dangerous.

Yes, it's still totally up in the air. Nobody knows what he 'promised' Leo, meaning there is a considerable risk the whole thing could simply collapse again (Johnson could just deny ever promising the Taoiseach anything or claim it was a misunderstanding).

Mr.Nice Guy · 10-10-2019 06:23PM

Don't think anything will come from this. Both sides need to be seen to be trying to get a deal before the inevitable split. I think our side have played it well by making it clear that there is an appetite for an agreement, so that if/when it doesn't come about, we won't be the scapegoat for the blame game by being labelled inflexible. Likely now means Barnier will bear the brunt of the blame in the coming days rather than Varadkar.

Dyr · 10-10-2019 06:23PM

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1182314519416184839

We can always depend on Tony.

To report the government line straight from an off the record briefing? People criticize the BBC journos for doing the same thing. While there's less kite flying and blaggarding with Connelly, he's not doing anything too dissimilar.

RobertKK · 10-10-2019 06:28PM

Hazys wrote: »

I was in Idaho Falls last week (on my way to Yellowstone) and in a coffee shop the lady behind the counter told me "Ireland is the only European country me and my husband would like to visit". Kinda funny she compliments Ireland while throwing shade at the rest of Europe but its not surprising considering its big MAGA territory with the Gun store next door to the coffee shop that they probably hate liberal Europe while still romanticizing about Ireland.

I live in Boston so you get people wearing the ear off ya talking about Ireland all the time but the American love for Ireland spreads far out from the major Irish hubs of Boston, NYC and Chicago.

I was told by an American (one of German/Swiss/Austrian descent) earlier this week as we talked about Brexit and what Bonnie Greer said.
He said to me Ireland is revered in the US.

Strazdas · 10-10-2019 06:29PM

Bambi wrote: »

To report the government line straight from an off the record briefing? People criticize the BBC journos for doing the same thing. While there's less kite flying and blaggarding with Connelly, he's not doing anything too dissimilar.

Who else could brief him but the Irish Govt? There were only Irish and British govt officials present at the discussions. It's either that or not report on the meeting at all.

Kermit.de.frog · 10-10-2019 06:30PM

Varadkar has sent sterling soaring

https://www.investing.com/currencies/gbp-eur

Hopefully it's true.

prawnsambo · 10-10-2019 06:33PM

Bambi wrote: »

To report the government line straight from an off the record briefing? People criticize the BBC journos for doing the same thing. While there's less kite flying and blaggarding with Connelly, he's not doing anything too dissimilar.

There's a lot less likelihood of Tony Connelly swallowing a line of bullsh1t without question than LauraK swallowing it whole and regurgitating it undigested. He's well capable of dissecting this stuff and pointing out where it doesn't stack up. Leaks are part of the 'game'. It's important to know who to trust and who not to when they are reported.

prawnsambo · 10-10-2019 06:36PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Varadkar has sent sterling soaring

https://www.investing.com/currencies/gbp-eur

Hopefully it's true.

In all this brexit madness, I'd never have expected to see somebody saying this and it being true. Bizarre and surreal.

Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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