Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Kermit.de.frog · 04-10-2019 09:58PM

Telegraph tomorrow saying Johnson wants Hungary to veto extension and has his hopes pinned on it!

FrancieBrady · 04-10-2019 10:03PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Telegraph tomorrow saying Johnson wants Hungary to veto extension and has his hopes pinned on it!

You can be sure it's a meddlesome misdirection if the Torygraph is printing it.

devnull · 04-10-2019 10:06PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Telegraph tomorrow saying Johnson wants Hungary to veto extension and has his hopes pinned on it!

Sure, but he's sticking on the basis that they will agree to that.

However perhaps he has found a way to, sweeten the deal, so to speak.

That's before we discuss the hypocrisy of the claims about remainers 'working with other countries' against the national interest in light of this.

maebee · 04-10-2019 10:26PM

Jeffrey Archer on the LLS now plugging his latest book. Will be interesting to hear his views on Brexit when Tubs brings it up.

Scrap that. He was rubbish

A Shropshire Lad · 04-10-2019 10:33PM

The extension in March was a tough enough sell. Wasnt it Juncker who said "dont waste this time" to the UK back then

How is this extension going to be sold ?

FrancieBrady · 04-10-2019 10:36PM

maebee wrote: »

Jeffrey Archer on the LLS now plugging his latest book. Will be interesting to hear his views on Brexit when Tubs brings it up

He knows as much as us. Bemoaning all the shouting in the HOC nowadays, I seem to remember plenty of it in Thatcher's time, his heyday.

Spanish Eyes · 04-10-2019 10:45PM

NO DEAL will not happen now.

All the signs are there from UK apart from admitting that. And it was ever thus.

The rest of it is pantomime and wishful thinking in a post colonial mindset. Or some such superior attitude.

But we shall see.

Roger_007 · 04-10-2019 10:46PM

devnull wrote: »

Sure, but he's sticking on the basis that they will agree to that.

However perhaps he has found a way to, sweeten the deal, so to speak.

That's before we discuss the hypocrisy of the claims about remainers 'working with other countries' against the national interest in light of this.

If he persuades the Hungarians to veto the extension, that would mean a no deal exit on 31st Oct.
What happens on 1st Nov? Probably chaos, because no trading arrangements will then exist between the UK and the EU.
Will that look like a victory to BoJo and his Tory colleagues or will it finally bring it home to the hard Brexiteers just what a no-deal exit looks like!

briany · 04-10-2019 10:46PM

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

The extension in March was a tough enough sell. Wasnt it Juncker who said "dont waste this time" to the UK back then

How is this extension going to be sold ?

It's true that the UK has all but wasted the last six months with four months of doing little else than talking their game up, and less than two months of actual meaningful action. So that's a negative.

As a sort of positive, though, the UK government does look to be teetering on the brink of collapse, with a GE being pretty much in the hands of the opposition if and when they decide to agree to one. The EU could figure that an extension is worth granting on the basis that they might as well give a few more months to see if a new UK government produces any decisive movement.

lawred2 · 04-10-2019 10:55PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Telegraph tomorrow saying Johnson wants Hungary to veto extension and has his hopes pinned on it!

That is so pathetic. Actually pathetic. Taking back control. Give me a break. What has Britain been reduced to by these supine craven charlatans!?

Infini · 04-10-2019 10:56PM

Scoondal wrote: »

Hungary has already rejected EU laws. They like the benefits of EU membership but ignore their obligations. It's disgusting. Have EU imposed fines on Hungary ?
Does Hungary know about the UN signed peace agreement in Northern Ireland ?
Probably not. Hungary is showing its ignorance to everyone now.

Another way of thinking of it is that so long as the "Brits are at it again, all day every day" it keeps the heat off them. A veto by them would make them public enemy no1 next for more than just the veto but so long as theyre at it it keeps them under the radar to enough of a degree to get away with it.

Castlekeeper · 04-10-2019 11:00PM

Looks to be either a Boris bluff or else the first step in throwing the DUP under the famous bus/ special status for NI. Given that the DUP have now accepted the principal if an Irish sea-border, and apart from a PR pov have no value, perhaps we could be on the way down the tunnel to the best of all worlds, ie Ireland OK Britain back in the 70s?

Leroy42 · 04-10-2019 11:03PM

Me thinks Hungary are merely playing the UK here.

Listen to what they have to offer and only use the veto if there is no way an extension would be passed anyway.

It would have to be something pretty enormous to persuade them to go against the EU. Which of course calls into question the value of Brexit at all.

Injuryprone · 04-10-2019 11:04PM

Looks to me that Boris is looking to gather as many chips as he can to bring to the negotiation table whenever they meet. He believes that the threat of no deal will get him what he wants and he's trying to keep it on the table.

Up to now, they've been throwing it out there that they have a way around the Benn act that they're keeping secret. I personally don't think they have, but the pretence does kind of keep no deal on the table.

This meeting with the Hungarians seemed to me to be far too public for it to be a real threat of a veto. But it does enable them to say that an extension isn't guaranteed from now on, and no deal is back on the table.

I don't think that even Boris would be stupid enough to do a deal with another country against his own. He'll be going to jail if he did

lawred2 · 04-10-2019 11:05PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Me thinks Hungary are merely playing the UK here.

Listen to what they have to offer and only use the veto if there is no way an extension would be passed anyway.

It would have to be something pretty enormous to persuade them to go against the EU. Which of course calls into question the value of Brexit at all.

What would be funny is the Tories watching on as Hungary sit on their hands and approve the extension..

If that's their grand plan - it's a shaky one

Imreoir2 · 04-10-2019 11:09PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Me thinks Hungary are merely playing the UK here.

Listen to what they have to offer and only use the veto if there is no way an extension would be passed anyway.

It would have to be something pretty enormous to persuade them to go against the EU. Which of course calls into question the value of Brexit at all.

I think Hungary will only play pawn to the UK if it is made aware opinion in the EU shifts against allowing an extension. Might prove useful to let Hungary take the public heat for a veto rather than refuse an extension.

Sam Russell · 04-10-2019 11:10PM

Injuryprone wrote: »

Looks to me that Boris is looking to gather as many chips as he can to bring to the negotiation table whenever they meet. He believes that the threat of no deal will get him what he wants and he's trying to keep it on the table.

Up to now, they've been throwing it out there that they have a way around the Benn act that they're keeping secret. I personally don't think they have, but the pretence does kind of keep no deal on the table.

This meeting with the Hungarians seemed to me to be far too public for it to be a real threat of a veto. But it does enable them to say that an extension isn't guaranteed from now on, and no deal is back on the table.

I don't think that even Boris would be stupid enough to do a deal with another country against his own. He'll be going to jail if he did

I think this kind of trick would be countered by the opposition going straight for revoke - citing the disgraceful and devious carry on of BJ. They could tie that into a future referendum.

J Mysterio · 04-10-2019 11:19PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Telegraph tomorrow saying Johnson wants Hungary to veto extension and has his hopes pinned on it!

Jesus, that is just incredible.

J Mysterio · 04-10-2019 11:22PM

briany wrote: »

It's true that the UK has all but wasted the last six months with four months of doing little else than talking their game up, and less than two months of actual meaningful action. So that's a negative.

As a sort of positive, though, the UK government does look to be teetering on the brink of collapse, with a GE being pretty much in the hands of the opposition if and when they decide to agree to one. The EU could figure that an extension is worth granting on the basis that they might as well give a few more months to see if a new UK government produces any decisive movement.

There's no reason to believe that unfortunately.

Infini wrote: »

Another way of thinking of it is that so long as the "Brits are at it again, all day every day" it keeps the heat off them. A veto by them would make them public enemy no1 next for more than just the veto but so long as theyre at it it keeps them under the radar to enough of a degree to get away with it.

Sorry to say but that is utter hogwash. The UK are really treading the line here. They might genuinely become some weird, freakish pariah state in Europe with this carry on.

Professor Moriarty · 04-10-2019 11:24PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Jesus, that is just incredible.

Or it illustrates how badly Cummings and Johnson have played this. He is being exposed as a lightweight precisely because he is a lightweight. And so, he's running out of depths to which he can sink.

J Mysterio · 04-10-2019 11:26PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Or it illustrates how badly Cummings and Johnson have played this. He is being exposed as a lightweight precisely because he is a lightweight. And so, he's running out of depths to which he can sink.

Yet half the population are in thrall to him. His [short term] domestic prospects are quite good. Despite his disgraceful carry on.

Professor Moriarty · 04-10-2019 11:32PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Yet half the population are in thrall to him. His domestic prospects are quite good. Despite his disgraceful carry on.

Yeah. However, you have to assume that when the sh1t hits the fan then people know which side their bread is buttered on. Terrible mixing of metaphors but when it's Johnson... The fact is that the UK is badly served by the leaders of their parties. Maybe it's a false comparison, but Vradakar, Martin or Coveney would be infinitely better than Johnson or Corbyn. Or even Swinson, Not Sturgeon though.

FrancieBrady · 04-10-2019 11:36PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

I think this kind of trick would be countered by the opposition going straight for revoke - citing the disgraceful and devious carry on of BJ. They could tie that into a future referendum.

I honestly don't think there is a political party with the cahonas to hit the Revoke button tbh.
They all seem petrified of the electorate. To get No Deal off the table took an agonizing long time to do.

robindch · 04-10-2019 11:54PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Telegraph tomorrow saying Johnson wants Hungary to veto extension and has his hopes pinned on it!

Jesus, that is just incredible.

In completely unrelated news, Hungarian Foreign Minster Péter Szijjártó was seen on Wednesday morning leaving the UK's Cabinet Office together with Ambassador Kristóf Szalay-Bobrovniczky. Mr Szijjártó was there presumably to reiterate Hungary's September position that Hungary wouldn't take a position.

https://twitter.com/ResistersLondon/status/1179781814564638721

robindch · 04-10-2019 11:58PM

Former Australian PM Julia Gillard reminds the UK that, in trading terms, the UK lags behind Singapore:

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1180084022992441344

jm08 · 04-10-2019 11:59PM

Orban has form in letting the Tories and UKIP/Brexiteers down when it comes to where his best interests are. His party decided to stay in the European Peoples Party Group in the European Parliament even though the Conservative Party was leaving for another group. Then when the EPP were thinking of expelling Orban's party, Merkel's party decided it was better to keep your enemies close, so they are still in that grouping in the European Parliament which is where they want to be as its the most influential grouping in the EU. Orban likes to stir it up in the EU, but always manages to draw the line just short of going too far.

Roger_007 · 05-10-2019 12:02AM

robindch wrote: »

In completely unrelated news, Hungarian Foreign Minster Péter Szijjártó was seen on Wednesday morning leaving the UK's Cabinet Office together with Ambassador Kristóf Szalay-Bobrovniczky. Mr Szijjártó was there presumably to reiterate Hungary's September position that Hungary wouldn't take a position.

https://twitter.com/ResistersLondon/status/1179781814564638721

So, that just confirms that Hungary is not going to veto the extension. Maybe they just want to give the impression that some arrangement is being made with the Hungarians, (while the real deal is being made with someone else).

road_high · 05-10-2019 12:11AM

jm08 wrote: »

Orban has form in letting the Tories and UKIP/Brexiteers down when it comes to where his best interests are. His party decided to stay in the European Peoples Party Group in the European Parliament even though the Conservative Party was leaving for another group. Then when the EPP were thinking of expelling Orban's party, Merkel's party decided it was better to keep your enemies close, so they are still in that grouping in the European Parliament which is where they want to be as its the most influential grouping in the EU. Orban likes to stir it up in the EU, but always manages to draw the line just short of going too far.

As they say the Hungarians know what side their bread is buttered on and there’s virtually nothing in it for them by supporting the British position bar a little trouble making for the EU- Orbans agenda is more about controlling his own borders . UK Hungarian trade and diplomatic relations are not exactly high priority stuff.

reslfj · 05-10-2019 12:20AM

GM228 wrote: »

No, they can't interfere with domestic matters.

The EU27 can make any demand of the UK before extending. The UK can then accept or say 'No' and get an immediate 'No Deal' Brexit.

A demand for a GE or a second referendum are both very much domestic politics.

Lars

robindch · 05-10-2019 12:33AM

Roger_007 wrote: »

So, that just confirms that Hungary is not going to veto the extension.

The Indo article is from September 19th while the Hungarians were seen going in and out of the Cabinet office yesterday. I can't imagine that the two sides were discussing England's chances in tomorrow's rugby match against Argentina.

On the other hand, noting that Hungary has learned much from Russia over the last few years, I'd imagine that Hungary is saying enough to Johnson so that Johnson can pretend, within the private toxicity of the Cabinet Office anyway, that Hungary is onside. Johnson is likely to continue to pretend this, to anybody prepared to believe him, for as long as it's not more convenient for him to pretend to believe something else - at which point, both sides are likely simply to walk away from whatever positions they might have attempted to signal earlier on.

Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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