Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 Technical Discussion Only

adocholiday · 02-10-2019 07:21PM

Is the degradation on the satellite images expected? What are the chances that this might be downgraded by tomorrow?

igCorcaigh · 02-10-2019 07:21PM

Meteor... that wind later on the celtic sea though...
Storm surge on southern coasts?

SleetAndSnow · 02-10-2019 07:22PM

Too me, that looks like it has gotten slightly weaker overall but slightly stronger in cork county and Kerry as a whole. I could also just be going mad from looking at so many different graphs though.

igCorcaigh · 02-10-2019 07:23PM

I'm really starting to think that this could be quite the flood event, with some trees down.

km79 · 02-10-2019 07:27PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

I'm really starting to think that this could be quite the flood event, with some trees down.

Where ?
Those rainfall charts don’t show any excessive rain outside of northwest

endainoz · 02-10-2019 07:28PM

km79 wrote:

Where ? Those rainfall charts donâ€™t show any excessive rain outside of northwest

I'd say hes referring to coastal flooding. And going by the name I'd say county cork!

Hal1 · 02-10-2019 07:32PM

Storm surge coupled with high tides. The lee could burst her banks like she did a few years back. Folks in canoe's etc...

Graces7 · 02-10-2019 07:34PM

The marine warnings on met.ie which are for coastal waters, speak of strong gale force winds on all coasts and storm force in the west; cannot copy paste on this machine. Orange warning .

SleetAndSnow · 02-10-2019 07:36PM

Hal1 wrote: »

Storm surge coupled with high tides. The lee could burst her banks like she did a few years back. Folks in canoe's etc...

It's already burst its banks twice over the last week with the high tides. this could be even higher but depends on how it goes, usually happens with SE winds but this could be different.

Meteorite58 · 02-10-2019 07:40PM

ECM has pared back rainfall totalls also a bit . Still quite wet in the W and NW.

Meteorite58 · 02-10-2019 07:50PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Meteor... that wind later on the celtic sea though...
Storm surge on southern coasts?

By Fri morning you are talking about an offshore wind in the S and most of the higher surge would have been up along the SW and W the previous day . High tides getting lower now as well as we head towards neap tides . Rainfall in the S also does not look like a concern going by the present charts.

JanuarySnowstor · 02-10-2019 07:54PM

The euros and gfs/icon are quite different at only 24hours with the euros much keener on a sharp turn through Central Ireland. We should praise the model who gets it right. Time will tell.
ECM looks severe enough to me

pad199207 · 02-10-2019 08:04PM

https://twitter.com/kildaremet/status/1179470818650312706?s=21

igCorcaigh · 02-10-2019 08:06PM

Any sparks with this one?

uck51js9zml2yt · 02-10-2019 08:21PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Any sparks with this one?

You do know that electricity and water don't mix well !!

Oneiric 3 · 02-10-2019 08:28PM

This chart shows all of the possible solutions from this evening's ECM run for tomorrow midnight:

Miike · 02-10-2019 08:39PM

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

This chart shows all of the possible solutions from this evening's ECM run for tomorrow midnight:

Darwin · 02-10-2019 08:43PM

With the inevitable comparisons to Ophelia, thought I would post a screengrab taken on the day of Ophelia:

This is the short range wind forecast from met eireann for 3pm that day - will be interesting to see how Lorenzo compares as it moves in over the country.

SlowBlowin · 02-10-2019 08:52PM

I was just looking at the hourly speeds for my location on met.ie. My highest winds are outside the orange warning, see attached.

forcast.JPG

Meteorite58 · 02-10-2019 08:52PM

Euro 4 eased back on the throttle also since the earlier runs. Slower to make it's turn over land so expending a lot of it's energy off the coasts. Still gusting up to around 120 km/h on W coasts.

Oneiric 3 · 02-10-2019 08:53PM

Miike wrote: »

This should be more palatable:

Miike · 02-10-2019 08:55PM

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

This should be more palatable:

Sorry I was making a cheap joke

Oneiric 3 · 02-10-2019 09:04PM

Miike wrote: »

Sorry I was making a cheap joke

I know!
The chart just shows all the possible forecast locations for the storm low, which does look a bit jumbled because of the scale of the map, which unfortunately is all that is available on the site I took it from.

Danno · 02-10-2019 09:08PM

George Lee, RTE News - only the second time in history for a hurricane to come in over us - the other being Ophelia just two years ago. Erm, Debbie 1961 George?

Oneiric 3 · 02-10-2019 09:16PM

Danno wrote: »

George Lee, RTE News - only the second time in history for a hurricane to come in over us - the other being Ophelia just two years ago. Erm, Debbie 1961 George?

Leaving aside Debby, Ophelia wasn't even a hurricane when hit Ireland. These people are utter morons.

KingBobby · 02-10-2019 09:17PM

SlowBlowin wrote: »

I was just looking at the hourly speeds for my location on met.ie. My highest winds are outside the orange warning, see attached.

For many locations met is showing the strongest winds in the morning or lunchtime

DOCARCH · 02-10-2019 09:18PM

Danno wrote: »

George Lee, RTE News - only the second time in history for a hurricane to come in over us - the other being Ophelia just two years ago. Erm, Debbie 1961 George?

Total ramper!!! His reports today have pi**ed me off.

Arguably we have never had a hurricane come in over us and it's not happening tomorrow or Friday either!

Oneiric 3 · 02-10-2019 09:27PM

A reminder of the wind gust speeds from Hurricane Debby back in 1961, and these are in knots, not Km/h.

Entire forests were flattened around here in a matter of minutes during that storm.

M.T. Cranium · 02-10-2019 09:41PM

Looking at the satellite loop for past six hours, there was some sign of an eastward wobble in the past two hours, so might look for any sign of that trend on 18z run guidance. Would imply a closer trajectory to Connacht and possible elimination of the Donegal landfall option.

Without data of course it's not easy to assess small-scale changes. The ocean buoy that used to report from 49N 16W (PAP) seems to be out of service too.

M6 buoy will give us valuable data after midnight. Steady SSE wind around 35-40 km/hr there all afternoon and evening so far.

mickger844posts · 02-10-2019 09:44PM

Mod Note: Lets keep the chat to its own thread and keep this "Technical" please.

Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 **Technical Discussion Only**

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Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 Technical Discussion Only