Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 **Technical Discussion Only**

igCorcaigh

JCX BXC wrote: »

This storm probably won't be significant for wind speeds, however for longevity of winds it will be notable.

Yeah, yet met had said it would be a very fast moving storm. I think that may had been yesterday's guidance?

Meteorite58

ECM 12Z showing lower wind speeds since the 0Z run.

adocholiday

Is the degradation on the satellite images expected? What are the chances that this might be downgraded by tomorrow?

igCorcaigh

Meteor... that wind later on the celtic sea though...
Storm surge on southern coasts?

SleetAndSnow

Too me, that looks like it has gotten slightly weaker overall but slightly stronger in cork county and Kerry as a whole. I could also just be going mad from looking at so many different graphs though.

igCorcaigh

I'm really starting to think that this could be quite the flood event, with some trees down.

km79

igCorcaigh wrote: »

I'm really starting to think that this could be quite the flood event, with some trees down.

Where ?
Those rainfall charts don’t show any excessive rain outside of northwest

endainoz

km79 wrote:

Where ? Those rainfall charts don’t show any excessive rain outside of northwest

I'd say hes referring to coastal flooding. And going by the name I'd say county cork!

Hal1

Storm surge coupled with high tides. The lee could burst her banks like she did a few years back. Folks in canoe's etc...

Graces7

The marine warnings on met.ie which are for coastal waters, speak of strong gale force winds on all coasts and storm force in the west; cannot copy paste on this machine. Orange warning .

SleetAndSnow

Hal1 wrote: »

Storm surge coupled with high tides. The lee could burst her banks like she did a few years back. Folks in canoe's etc...

It's already burst its banks twice over the last week with the high tides. this could be even higher but depends on how it goes, usually happens with SE winds but this could be different.

Meteorite58

ECM has pared back rainfall totalls also a bit . Still quite wet in the W and NW.

Meteorite58

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Meteor... that wind later on the celtic sea though...
Storm surge on southern coasts?

By Fri morning you are talking about an offshore wind in the S and most of the higher surge would have been up along the SW and W the previous day . High tides getting lower now as well as we head towards neap tides . Rainfall in the S also does not look like a concern going by the present charts.

JanuarySnowstor

The euros and gfs/icon are quite different at only 24hours with the euros much keener on a sharp turn through Central Ireland. We should praise the model who gets it right. Time will tell.
ECM looks severe enough to me

pad199207

https://twitter.com/kildaremet/status/1179470818650312706?s=21

igCorcaigh

Any sparks with this one?

uck51js9zml2yt

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Any sparks with this one?

You do know that electricity and water don't mix well !!

Oneiric 3

This chart shows all of the possible solutions from this evening's ECM run for tomorrow midnight:

Miike

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

This chart shows all of the possible solutions from this evening's ECM run for tomorrow midnight:

Darwin

With the inevitable comparisons to Ophelia, thought I would post a screengrab taken on the day of Ophelia:



This is the short range wind forecast from met eireann for 3pm that day - will be interesting to see how Lorenzo compares as it moves in over the country.

SlowBlowin

I was just looking at the hourly speeds for my location on met.ie. My highest winds are outside the orange warning, see attached.

forcast.JPG

Meteorite58

Euro 4 eased back on the throttle also since the earlier runs. Slower to make it's turn over land so expending a lot of it's energy off the coasts. Still gusting up to around 120 km/h on W coasts.

Oneiric 3

Miike wrote: »

This should be more palatable:

Miike

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

This should be more palatable:

Sorry I was making a cheap joke

Oneiric 3

Miike wrote: »

Sorry I was making a cheap joke

I know!
The chart just shows all the possible forecast locations for the storm low, which does look a bit jumbled because of the scale of the map, which unfortunately is all that is available on the site I took it from.

Danno

George Lee, RTE News - only the second time in history for a hurricane to come in over us - the other being Ophelia just two years ago. Erm, Debbie 1961 George?

Oneiric 3

Danno wrote: »

George Lee, RTE News - only the second time in history for a hurricane to come in over us - the other being Ophelia just two years ago. Erm, Debbie 1961 George?

Leaving aside Debby, Ophelia wasn't even a hurricane when hit Ireland. These people are utter morons.

KingBobby

SlowBlowin wrote: »

I was just looking at the hourly speeds for my location on met.ie. My highest winds are outside the orange warning, see attached.

For many locations met is showing the strongest winds in the morning or lunchtime

DOCARCH

Danno wrote: »

George Lee, RTE News - only the second time in history for a hurricane to come in over us - the other being Ophelia just two years ago. Erm, Debbie 1961 George?

Total ramper!!! His reports today have pi**ed me off.

Arguably we have never had a hurricane come in over us and it's not happening tomorrow or Friday either!

Oneiric 3

A reminder of the wind gust speeds from Hurricane Debby back in 1961, and these are in knots, not Km/h.



Entire forests were flattened around here in a matter of minutes during that storm.