Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 Technical Discussion Only

mikeecho · 29-09-2019 1:35pm

When we know for almost certain, it's trajectory.
Wednesday ?

I mentioned this storm over the canteen lunch table today, and I had to quickly back track, saying maybe/ possibly etc etc, as the conversation suddenly turned to people wanting to know the exact day and time, and would it be as damaging as Ophelia.

I'm not able to fully understand all the charts on here, but it's good to have a heads up on any potential distruption.
For Ophelia I was able to take all necessary safety precautions and have a supply of water for the power cuts (I'm operating off a well, so no power means no water)

Kermit.de.frog · 29-09-2019 1:39pm

Should have a proper idea by tomorrow evening really on the track.

Going back and forward here every 6 hours will just drive you to drink.

Gaoth Laidir · 29-09-2019 1:39pm

It's now become more ragged on satellite compared to 5 hours ago. The eye is filling and gaps are forming to the north and west.

Drumpot · 29-09-2019 1:43pm

What’s the likely best scenario? Bit of rain?

I’ve got hell and back on Sunday in Bray and just wondering how this might affect it. Even when it’s been dry The course is muddy , with river and lake and all sorts of surprises!

Kermit.de.frog · 29-09-2019 1:49pm

On signs of weakening on the latest microwave imagery the system should be entering more favorable atmospheric conditions within the next 24 - 36 hours including a more favorable shear environment.

Another couple of days of "breathing" to come...

SleetAndSnow · 29-09-2019 2:01pm

By favorable you mean conditions that will allow it to strengthen Kermit? I’ve been meaning to look up the meaning of shear still.

Edit: looked, ah yep answered my own question

Rikand · 29-09-2019 2:09pm

Drumpot wrote: »

What’s the likely best scenario? Bit of rain?

I’ve got hell and back on Sunday in Bray and just wondering how this might affect it. Even when it’s been dry The course is muddy , with river and lake and all sorts of surprises!

Stay home and play some werewolf instead

Kermit.de.frog · 29-09-2019 2:11pm

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

By favorable you mean conditions that will allow it to strengthen Kermit? I’ve been meaning to look up the meaning of shear still.

Edit: looked, ah yep answered my own question

Very unlikely to strengthen beyond what we have already seen in my opinion. It just helps maintain intensity if you don't have too much shear in the upper atmosphere layers tilting the cloud tops and making the system vertically lopsided. Most efficient use of the energy is for a clean vertical core through the eye.

Wind shear is just horizontal wind tilting the cloud tops. The less the better for a neater, more organised engine.

JanuarySnowstor · 29-09-2019 2:31pm

The jma 06z only goes to 84hrs but it also looks like diverting Lorenzo away to our West. So all the newest data fed into the 06zs bring it away West of Ireland and up into Iceland vicinity. Interesting to watch the climbdown this evening from the 'world's greatest model' the ecm
If that does happen of course....I've long been a champion of both the much slated gfs and icon. Let's wipe the slate clean for this season and see who wins the first battle

Gaoth Laidir · 29-09-2019 2:56pm

Latest wind field. Max wind 120 kt about 18 NM northeast of the centre. It should be remembered that, although these things look large on satellite, the actual maximum quoted winds occur in a tiny area. The >64-kt winds are currently occuring within only 45 NM (85 km) of the centre, so outside of that it's <64 kts. One degree of latitude is 60 NM (111 km).

kilkenny31 · 29-09-2019 3:11pm

Does everyone feel that the NHC predicted track is the most reliable. They were bang on with ophelia. They are showing Ireland take a direct hit. I think this storm will hit us. The only question will be is at what force.

lcasey90 · 29-09-2019 3:17pm

kilkenny31 wrote: »

Does everyone feel that the NHC predicted track is the most reliable. They were bang on with ophelia.

I'm inclined to follow NHC as this is their field of expertise. Hopefully by tomorrow/ Tuesday morning we will have a more solid answer to what is going to affect us if it even does affect us at all

lcasey90 · 29-09-2019 3:34pm

Can anyone give me examples of how Ophelia and Lorenzo differ from each other. How far out did we know Ophelia was going to impact us and what strength was it while they knew it was on track to hit us

SleetAndSnow · 29-09-2019 4:05pm

NHC gone slightly more west I think in advisory 29. Gonna be a lot of chopping and changing i think

sjb25 · 29-09-2019 4:06pm

Better bring the trampoline in so

CirrusBusiness · 29-09-2019 4:08pm

NHC's update has the track more to the west. Most of Ireland still in the hazard cone. Will be interesting to see if their projected track shifts further west in the coming few days. Who knows what is going to happen between now and then. Lorenzo is a beast of a storm and anything can happen as we saw with Ophelia.

aisling86 · 29-09-2019 4:10pm

Cork Ciy out of the cone.... definitely gone further west

Discodog · 29-09-2019 4:18pm

Where would you normally expect to find peak winds in relation to the centre ?

JanuarySnowstor · 29-09-2019 4:18pm

12z Icon brings it much closer to Ireland. Still a miss West but much closer to our shore.
Let's see what gfs makes of it all.

Re the nhc cone they are only modifying because of earlier 06z placements. The models rule guys not the nhc and met Eireann. They're playing catch up on previous runs

SleetAndSnow · 29-09-2019 4:19pm

Fact that icon has brought it closer when it’s becoming more in range shows how flip flop this is. I’m assuming it’s all going to be down to that area of low pressure in the north west really. That could change on the day.

refusetolose · 29-09-2019 4:20pm

aisling86 wrote: »

Cork Ciy out of the cone.... definitely gone further west

Note: The cone contains the probable path of the storm center but does not show the size of the storm. Hazardous conditions can occur outside of the cone

Little snowy old me · 29-09-2019 4:30pm

Thankfully Lorenzo look like missing us. I'm glad because I couldn't handle the nonsense and hype in the media and listening to people talking about hurricanes etc.

lcasey90 · 29-09-2019 4:38pm

I like the excitement of the thoughts we could get the tail end of the hurricane. It's not often we get to track and learn about hurricanes like this one, they're usually the other side of Atlantic

ncmc · 29-09-2019 4:40pm

What day/days would Ireland most likely be hit if we are in the trajectory. We’re leaving the country on Wednesday for a few days and just wondering if we should secure things in the garden just in case.

pauldry · 29-09-2019 4:40pm

Theres about a 1 in 10 chance we get hit by this but Iceland getting a tailend of a hurricane is also strange

km79 · 29-09-2019 4:43pm

ncmc wrote: »

What day/days would Ireland most likely be hit if we are in the trajectory. We’re leaving the country on Wednesday for a few days and just wondering if we should secure things in the garden just in case.

Yes
What harm can it do

TheRiverman · 29-09-2019 4:43pm

Little snowy old me wrote: »

Thankfully Lorenzo look like missing us. I'm glad because I couldn't handle the nonsense and hype in the media and listening to people talking about hurricanes etc.

Joanna Donnelly won't get her Status Red fix.

YanSno · 29-09-2019 4:44pm

Hurricane Lorenzo peaked in the early hours of this morning with an exceptional eye structure, eye temperatures of +16 and cloud tops in the mid -70s, leading to designation of 155mph for the storm. The National Hurricane Center upgraded the storm to Category 5 status at the time, although satellite and recon evidence questions that status.
Since then, Lorenzo has weakened somewhat, and has become less organised around its eyewall which appears to be breaking up.
Lorenzo is expected to continue weakening before affecting the Azores, but could still deliver 110mph winds this week.

sdanseo · 29-09-2019 4:46pm

CirrusBusiness wrote: »

NHC's update has the track more to the west. Most of Ireland still in the hazard cone. Will be interesting to see if their projected track shifts further west in the coming few days. Who knows what is going to happen between now and then. Lorenzo is a beast of a storm and anything can happen as we saw with Ophelia.

This is really important: the cone is not an indication of the area of hazardous conditions. It is an indication of where the centre of the storm will end up in 66% of cases based over a 5 year margin of error across all NHC forecasts.

The cone makes no reference to the size of the storm and NHC are very clear on all graphics that hazardous conditions can occur outside of the cone.
Equally, parts inside the cone at T+120 could be calm and normal 120hrs later.

Graces7 · 29-09-2019 4:49pm

CirrusBusiness wrote: »

NHC's update has the track more to the west. Most of Ireland still in the hazard cone. Will be interesting to see if their projected track shifts further west in the coming few days. Who knows what is going to happen between now and then. Lorenzo is a beast of a storm and anything can happen as we saw with Ophelia.

We missed Ophelia; she turned east before us. Mayo I mean. People in Sligo were very disappointed. We did get a bad hit from Callum.. a really bad hit . No one here believed that as it was a west coast event. Now they are saying Lorenzo is a westerly? ah well...

Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 **Technical Discussion Only**

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Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 Technical Discussion Only