Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Strazdas wrote: »

Isn't it very telling that when he goes to an EU state, there isn't a single British person to support him? Pro-Johnson people would have been free to stand there and cheer him on.

Apparently the people booing him were British. In the main British expats but British none the less.

Leroy42 wrote: »

Again, we are back to thinking that Johnson is going to pull a fast one and magically deliver against the odds.

But there is no evidence of his ability to do anything close to that. Johnson clearly has charisma but he has never shown any ability.

He has lost 6 votes already. He has lost 20+ MPs in the last few weeks. But the media in the UK continues to put faith that not only will he get a deal from the EU but somehow get a divided house to pass it.

Watch the All-Ireland final here on the outskirts of west kerry on Saturday at the local tigh tabhairine. Chatting at the pub, I was surprised that the locals thought there'd be a deal. Just a matter of faith - they all wanted a deal (farming and fishing being the 2 employers here besides the various State jobs and tourism.) I pointed out the best deal was Remain, it seemed like I was speaking Greek. Also a strong sentiment was that the locals wanted Brexit to end, not a lot of love for the UK here (Martin Ferris was a long-time TD for the area), but all wanted 'a deal.' It didn't compute with them when I pointed out what you were saying, Johnson is beyond inept, setting a record for most lost votes at the start of his premiership, lost more than Thatcher after 11 years, etc. Lots of faith in that there would be a deal. Ahh well.

Enzokk wrote: »

As for those facts, Faisal Islam has a thread about business and their reaction to no-deal.....

That is on relocation's, seems that just about 2/3rds aren't planning to relocate but the rest are planning to, have already drawn up plans or are in the process of doing so.

German friend of mine who is a senior guy with a car parts manufacturer told me they have two facilities in the UK employing close to 2,000 people. Their Brexit planning is complete and very straightforward.

Option 1 - If there's a Withdrawal Agreement they carry on with their UK factories.

Option 2 - If there's a No Deal Brexit his immediate job is to shut down both factories straight away. No if's or but's. Hanging around seeing how things may or may not play out in a No Deal Brexit is too risky for them financially. They know what it'll cost them to shut both factories down straight away and move production elsewhere in the group so that is what they have resolved to do.

The decision is made, it's only a question of whether events will trigger Option 1 or Option 2.

54and56 wrote: »

German friend of mine who is a senior guy with a car parts manufacturer told me they have two facilities in the UK employing close to 2,000 people. Their Brexit planning is complete and very straightforward.

Option 1 - If there's a Withdrawal Agreement they carry on with their UK factories.

Option 2 - If there's a No Deal Brexit his immediate job is to shut down both factories straight away. No if's or but's. Hanging around seeing how things may or may not play out in a No Deal Brexit is too risky for them financially. They know what it'll cost them to shut both factories down straight away and move production elsewhere in the group so that is what they have resolved to do.

The decision is made, it's only a question of whether events will trigger Option 1 or Option 2.

Understandable, but wow must suck to be the lad has to fire a couple thousand people. I imagine your friend is fairly highly placed and this is solid info. I don't envy your friend even a little, this is business though. I thought (US experience here) closing facilities in the UK is a 'big deal,' takes a long time and the government, at least in the past, tried to mitigate the impact on the employees, they had long periods of time with some compensation. My experience though is the early 2000's working for a US firm that closed a UK office,as I recall the employees could come to work for 6 weeks on something like full salary to look for jobs via the office computers, etc.

CelticRambler wrote: »

Bettel made reference to a flaw in the Remain campaign in the UK, one which I have previously said applied also to the EU: that not enough was said loudly and clearly about how and why the EU was a force for good in the lives of ordinary UK citizens.

Absolutely. Even today, many Remain voters will say "Of course the EU is an undemocratic bureaucratic centralised nightmare of red tape and imposed laws, but it is better to stay inside and try to reform it than to leave".

Deleted User wrote: »

Bettel, " we will not grant another extension, just for the sake of granting another extension!", Boris will get his no-deal Brexit simply by sitting on his hands!
The letter requesting another extension becomes worthless.

All Boris has to do for the next two weeks is travel around Europe and insult the families and national heroes of the Heads of State of the EU27 in the hope that one of them will hold a grudge and veto an extension

I don't think the EU heads of state are stupid enough to fall for this, but there are probably one or two who are looking for any excuse to veto an extension.

Igotadose wrote: »

Understandable, but wow must suck to be the lad has to fire a couple thousand people. I imagine your friend is fairly highly placed and this is solid info. I don't envy your friend even a little, this is business though. I thought (US experience here) closing facilities in the UK is a 'big deal,' takes a long time and the government, at least in the past, tried to mitigate the impact on the employees, they had long periods of time with some compensation. My experience though is the early 2000's working for a US firm that closed a UK office,as I recall the employees could come to work for 6 weeks on something like full salary to look for jobs via the office computers, etc.

The requirements are broadly similar in the UK as they are here; the company has minimum compensation to pay, a minimum "consultation" period to enter into, etc etc.

But if the company is closing a facility and there is nowhere to put the staff, then the process is a box-ticking exercise. The costs are quantifiable. Six weeks running costs + redundancy payments. If that works out to a £20m cost, the company takes that hit and offsets it against tax bills and such.

briany wrote: »

I'd say forcing a 2nd referendum would be a better bet. The opposition have the parliamentary numbers to get this over the line, in theory. Not that the opposition are unified in their thinking - far from it, but as things come to the crunch and real desperate panic sets in, and Boris looks content to know that simple inertia will get Brexit over the line, voting for a 2nd ref would be the move that pulls the UK plane out of its determined nosedive.

A 2nd referendum needs to have a deal on the table. Yes, I know there is a deal on the table now, but Corbyn won't put that to the people because he wants the chance to negotiate his own deal first.

I'd love for a 2nd ref to be called with the options being remain or May's deal because remain would almost certainly win, but Corbyn is a leaver and given the opportunity he will probably get a different deal with different 'red lines' that will change the numbers on a 2nd referendum,

Igotadose wrote: »

Understandable, but wow must suck to be the lad has to fire a couple thousand people. I imagine your friend is fairly highly placed and this is solid info. I don't envy your friend even a little, this is business though. I thought (US experience here) closing facilities in the UK is a 'big deal,' takes a long time and the government, at least in the past, tried to mitigate the impact on the employees, they had long periods of time with some compensation. My experience though is the early 2000's working for a US firm that closed a UK office,as I recall the employees could come to work for 6 weeks on something like full salary to look for jobs via the office computers, etc.

Just musing to myself here but i wonder what will UK employment law and worker's rights look like in the event of a no-deal brexit w.r.t large scale redundancies and job transfers. Has the government said they'll maintain these rights going forward?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/europa.eu/youreurope/business/human-resources/employment-contracts/redundancies/indexamp_en.htm

DOCARCH wrote: »

That struck me as potentially part of the strategy yesterday. Get to a point where no extension is offered.

He isn't playing 4 dimensional chess, he is just really, really bad at his job, same as he was a really bad Foreign Minister, MP, Mayor and journalist.

The only thing he is good at is making people think he is good at things in spite of the abundant proof that he is useless.

For anyone looking for a link, here is the Supreme Court hearing on youtube - Guardian page.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDH4TGDMvFw

knipex wrote: »

I sincerely doubt it. Corbyn is toxic to large swathes of voters.

No Matter who the Labour leader is, they will be character assassinated by the UK press and the troll army

If Labour were clever they would announce a change of leader the day before an election, so that all of the Tory campaigning which will be entirely focused on how bad Corbyn is, would be immediately neutralised, and they wouldn't have the time to poison the public against whoever the new Labour leader happened to be.

Chances of this happening are zero due to the egos and personalities involved

Igotadose wrote: »

Understandable, but wow must suck to be the lad has to fire a couple thousand people. I imagine your friend is fairly highly placed and this is solid info.

Yes, he's late 40's with 20 years experience in the company. Not Board level but just below. Senior exec with a lot of responsibility. He was here a few months ago so had pints with him and he was crystal clear, there was zero doubt or hesitation. It was a binary decision, WA = keep things as they are, No Deal = exit the UK (from a production perspective) as quickly as possible.

Igotadose wrote: »

I don't envy your friend even a little, this is business though. I thought (US experience here) closing facilities in the UK is a 'big deal,' takes a long time and the government, at least in the past, tried to mitigate the impact on the employees, they had long periods of time with some compensation. My experience though is the early 2000's working for a US firm that closed a UK office,as I recall the employees could come to work for 6 weeks on something like full salary to look for jobs via the office computers, etc.

They are a very well established German company so will do things by the book. They won't have taken the decision lightly but they know (or are very confident) a No Deal Brexit would be such a disaster that shutting down is the correct commercial decision to make.

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

While I enjoyed Bettel introducing a dose of reality, I can't help but feel this was a tactical misstep. We all know Johnson and co. are preparing to play the blame game and no doubt the Brexiters will seize on this as evidence of the EU's unacceptable attitude. Even listening to Channel 4 news earlier they were talking about how Bettel was making the most of his moment.

You have to remember that the Brexiteers don't particularly care about the truth. They can spin any event to put forward whatever narrative they decide to peddle.

Boris Johnson compared the EU to hitler in 2016, but when Juncker described May's strategy as 'nebulous' the brexiteers had a meltdown. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/16/tories-divided-by-boris-johnsons-eu-hitler-comparison

There is no such thing as a sense of perspective when you're prepared to lie and spin everything because you're treating the future of Europe as a game where you can cheat your way to victory