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Attacks in Saudi Arabia on two oil factories

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,705 ✭✭✭Cheerful Spring2


    notobtuse wrote: »
    There will be no ground invasion. Pinpoint air attacks and global boycotts just might be the incentive needed for the Iranian people to accomplish a regime change.

    Funny thing is Iran has the capability to strike back. If this goes down don't be shocked if Iran destroys US airbases and aircraft carriers at sea. They not Iraq. Very likely Russia and China will support them with satellite coverage.

    I don't think people realise Iran base is Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen. You going to have take them on across mutiple fronts at the same time.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,424 ✭✭✭notobtuse


    So the Alt-Right jury is in is it?
    Last time the people of Iran rose up it was with the help of the CIA. Worked out great didn't it? Maybe if the US just f***ed off out of it for a spell?
    There's a new sheriff in town and the mullahs' lock on power is now shakier than ever.

    You can ignorantly accuse me of "whataboutism," but what it really is involves identifying similar scenarios in order to see if it holds up when the shoe is on the other foot!



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,424 ✭✭✭notobtuse


    Funny thing is Iran has the capability to strike back. If this goes down don't be shocked if Iran destroys US airbases and aircraft carriers at sea. They not Iraq. Very likely Russia and China will support them with satellite coverage.

    I don't think people realise Iran base is Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen. You going to have take them on across mutiple fronts at the same time.
    Russia and China need to buy oil, also. Economics usually trumps shaky alliances.

    You can ignorantly accuse me of "whataboutism," but what it really is involves identifying similar scenarios in order to see if it holds up when the shoe is on the other foot!



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 16,015 ✭✭✭✭James Brown


    notobtuse wrote: »
    There's a new sheriff in town and the mullahs' lock on power is now shakier than ever.

    You know Trump is a laughing stock all over the world right? Yeah him being a little nutty means anything can happen but to be fair to the Trump administration, it's the yanks in general. Who ever is in the WH they like throwing their weight around when money and oil is involved. I'm sure Trump and friends are writing up contracts as we speak.
    'Merica f*** yeah!


  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling



    This is not a Iraq. Iran possesses the same missiles as Israel and America and can hit every US base in the region. This is not empty threat.

    Hitting unprotected civilian infrastructure is one thing ,
    Hitting highly defended US military bases is a whole different ball game especially when the US can strike anywhere inside of Iran from the air ,sea , ground 24/7 in retaliation

    You certainly big up Iran


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,424 ✭✭✭notobtuse


    You know Trump is a laughing stock all over the world right? Yeah him being a little nutty means anything can happen but to be fair to the Trump administration, it's the yanks in general. Who ever is in the WH they like throwing their weight around when money and oil is involved. I'm sure Trump and friends are writing up contracts as we speak.
    'Merica f*** yeah!
    You do know at the recent G7, when it comes to approval ratings, only Japan's Shinzo Abe had Trump beat amongst world leaders.

    You can ignorantly accuse me of "whataboutism," but what it really is involves identifying similar scenarios in order to see if it holds up when the shoe is on the other foot!



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,281 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    American strikes in Iran will cement the leadership and bring their current internal opponents fully behind them.

    Recent regime change ideas have been among the mist catastrophic **** ups in US foreign policy in the last century.

    Turning Iraq into a vassal state of Iran was the smallest **** up from that trip.

    I can't see how America would win on the ground in Iran.

    Look at how Vietnam effected them, 55k dead over 10 years, put of s population of 250 million.

    Then go up against a population of 80 million where getting volunteers to clean a minefield by running across it, was no problem.

    Smaller countries in Europe called 50k dead a bad day or week in the last century.


    They don't have the appetite, that not a bad thing.

    Outside of that Iran will be able to hit hard but it may be in such a dirty way, using proxies that it makes a large US response inevitable.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 16,015 ✭✭✭✭James Brown


    notobtuse wrote: »
    You do know at the recent G7, when it comes to approval ratings, only Japan's Shinzo Abe had Trump beat amongst world leaders.

    In what Teen Beat magazine? Is he still telling himself loads turned up for the inauguration? You hear him say the other day that he looks orange all the time because of the environmentally friendly light bulbs? :) 'New sheriff' :):)


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,281 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Gatling wrote: »
    Hitting unprotected civilian infrastructure is one thing ,
    Hitting highly defended US military bases is a whole different ball game especially when the US can strike anywhere inside of Iran from the air ,sea , ground 24/7 in retaliation

    You certainly big up Iran

    Iran will use proxies and operatives abroad.

    They'll hit back hard.

    They'll figure out on a war of attrition that America will crack before they do.

    They could well be right but the body count would be astronomical and the harder they hit America at home and it's people and interests across the world, it may awaken the Yanks for an all out effort and screw the costs in money or dead GIs

    They can go that way too.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,424 ✭✭✭notobtuse


    In what Teen Beat magazine? Is he still telling himself loads turned up for the inauguration? You hear him say the other day that he looks orange all the time because of the environmentally friendly light bulbs? :) 'New sheriff' :):)
    He does love having some fun and driving the biased media bat$hit crazy.

    And that tidbit from the G7 was reported in Bloomberg. Not The Woke Warriors Gazette, but pretty prestigious in their own right.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-08-23/at-the-g7-trump-s-approval-rating-is-second-to-one

    You can ignorantly accuse me of "whataboutism," but what it really is involves identifying similar scenarios in order to see if it holds up when the shoe is on the other foot!



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,010 ✭✭✭kildare lad


    For all the saudis billions , they're having a hard time defeating the houthis . They've killed thousands of people in airstrikes including a lot of civilians , I just hope this doesn't escalate into something a lot worse


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,220 ✭✭✭cameramonkey


    CrankyHaus wrote: »
    The range involved makes drones unlikely. Anything big enough to fly that far from Yemen should be a big, slow, loud target. In fact it seems likely that the Houthis taking credit for a drone attack is deliberate misinformation.

    Aramco believes it was missiles. Even cruise missiles would be harder to intercept than drones, particularly if they came from a less expected direction. While Saudi Arabia has world class Air Defence systems there is ample evidence that human failings in its military severely undermines the effectiveness of even 1st rate gear.

    This is a good read on it.

    https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1208062/meet-the-quds-1/
    We don't know the range involved.

    Cruise missiles would be hard to miss, they are loud, low flying and slow. Any modern air defense system actually it does not even need to be modern could take them out. I agree that the Saudi army is not fit for purpose and could miss an attack like this. however I think civilians would have seen/ heard cruise missiles as they traversed the country.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,220 ✭✭✭cameramonkey


    notobtuse wrote: »
    Once all the I's are dotted and T’s are crossed, and everything points to Iran’s regime of religious psychopaths using one its proxies to undertake the oil field attach, they must be punished severely or they will continue their actions. The attack on Saudi Arabia was actually a global attack as the financial repercussions are already being felt around the world. A retaliatory air attack on their oil fields, ports, factories, military installations, and nuclear sites would probably be the best course of action. It might just give the Iranian people the motive needed to finish the job this time and oust the mullahs.

    I saw a pair of A10 Warthogs flying near where I live the other day. Haven’t seen them in quite some time even though a squadron is based about 60 miles south of me. Thought they would make the perfect attack plane to take on the small Iranian swarm boats that have been hijacking tanker ships lately.


    It would be shot out of the sky if it appeared in Iranian airspace. The Americans would not deploy such a slow vulnerable aircraft. They have pleanty of gear that could do a much better job.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,424 ✭✭✭notobtuse


    It would be shot out of the sky if it appeared in Iranian airspace. The Americans would not deploy such a slow vulnerable aircraft. They have pleanty of gear that could do a much better job.
    The swarm boats go after tankers in international waters. First missile shot by Iran would bring about massive destruction of key bases from more potent US aircraft.

    You can ignorantly accuse me of "whataboutism," but what it really is involves identifying similar scenarios in order to see if it holds up when the shoe is on the other foot!



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,358 ✭✭✭Homelander


    Why is the Saudi military so appallingly weak when they spend such absolutely enormous amounts of money on it? Iran would wipe the floor with them despite having a fraction of the military budget. It's like a fascist era Italy for the modern day.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,220 ✭✭✭cameramonkey


    Homelander wrote: »
    Why is the Saudi military so appallingly weak when they spend such absolutely enormous amounts of money on it? Iran would wipe the floor with them despite having a fraction of the military budget. It's like a fascist era Italy for the modern day.


    nepotism and bad training. They have also no will to fight for a corrupt regime.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Homelander wrote: »
    Why is the Saudi military so appallingly weak when they spend such absolutely enormous amounts of money on it? Iran would wipe the floor with them despite having a fraction of the military budget. It's like a fascist era Italy for the modern day.

    From what I understand their military and Society has a very top-down approach in that that they don't trust individual soldiers to make autonomous decisions and thus have a top-heavy command structure that can be slow to react during a crisis.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,220 ✭✭✭cameramonkey




  • Registered Users Posts: 9,717 ✭✭✭YFlyer


    Where were the Patriot defense system


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,358 ✭✭✭Homelander


    Good article, thanks. Very interesting. Compare the Saudi intervention in Yemen to the Russian one in Syria and the resulting outcomes. Stark.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    YFlyer wrote: »
    Where were the Patriot defense system

    Not at isolated oil fields likely only deployed to military infrastructure and to protect they royal family,

    If America shot down the missles over another state and there was casualties as a result people would have been up in arms screaming for revenge ,if they acted and stopped the missles over Saudi ,the kingdom would look helpless .

    It's a no win situation for the US.

    It didn't stop them docking a destroyer in Lebanon earlier today


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,358 ✭✭✭Homelander


    Pretty interesting what Trump said about waiting to hear from 'The Kingdom' on action to take. That's genuinely piling pressure on SA in a big way, and the resulting response could make SA look even weaker, but on the flip side, the US is hardly going to go to war if SA responds saying "let's hit them hard".
    Not sure if that man's a secret genius, or just absurdly dumb beyond comphrehension, it's impossible to tell at times.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,220 ✭✭✭cameramonkey


    Gatling wrote: »
    Not at isolated oil fields likely only deployed to military infrastructure and to protect they royal family,

    If America shot down the missles over another state and there was casualties as a result people would have been up in arms screaming for revenge ,if they acted and stopped the missles over Saudi ,the kingdom would look helpless .

    It's a no win situation for the US.

    It didn't stop them docking a destroyer in Lebanon earlier today


    The US has killed tens of thousands of civilians in the recent past and no one has done anything about it and very few care. If they knocked out a missile over SA and killed a few people no one would care.


    Anyway here is what maybe hit the SA oilfield.


    https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1208062/meet-the-quds-1/


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,593 ✭✭✭✭AMKC
    Ms


    Homelander wrote: »
    Pretty interesting what Trump said about waiting to hear from 'The Kingdom' on action to take. That's genuinely piling pressure on SA in a big way, and the resulting response could make SA look even weaker, but on the flip side, the US is hardly going to go to war if SA responds saying "let's hit them hard".
    Not sure if that man's a secret genius, or just absurdly dumb beyond comphrehension, it's impossible to tell at times.

    Well he certainly is not a genius so I think its the other one. He is a big child. Really when have you ever before heard a P.O.T.U.S say '' we are locked and loaded''

    Its something a child or a teenager would say not the most powerful man in the world.

    Live long and Prosper

    Peace and long life.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,556 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    listen genius, once its burned it cant pollute the atmosphere running filthy internal combustion engines !


    I'm going outside now to rev my lovely diesel engine :-)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,336 ✭✭✭rockatansky


    notobtuse wrote: »
    There's a new sheriff in town and the mullahs' lock on power is now shakier than ever.

    Their grip on power is just as strong as the first few months after the Revolution.

    No one person in the country is challenging either Ayatollah Ali Khamenei or Qasem Soleimani.

    There's only one possible way of Regime change, and that's an awful lot of US boots on the ground. Never going to happen.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,281 ✭✭✭CrankyHaus


    Homelander wrote: »
    Why is the Saudi military so appallingly weak when they spend such absolutely enormous amounts of money on it? Iran would wipe the floor with them despite having a fraction of the military budget. It's like a fascist era Italy for the modern day.

    You're assuming that their priority is to have a top rate military with unified command by professional officers. In fact this would just be a potential coup threat. Many more middle Eastern regimes fall to internal threats than external ones. So any self respecting despot needs to appoint commanders based on loyalty above competence, this rationale extends down the chain of command.

    They also split the military up in ways that frustrate potential coups but undermine effectiveness : so in Saudi Arabia you have the regular military under the Ministry of Defence, the National Guard under its own Ministry, Ministry of Interior paramilitaries, a Royal Guard that reports directly to the King and a Border Guard under its own Directorate. Most Middle Eastern states are similar.

    The heavy military spending is at least as much a form of diplomacy as it is an attempt to build an effective military. For some time the House of Saud has been keeping the lights on in the British defence industry and the influence this gives it over British governments is considerable (massive job losses in industrial regions are electorally hard to shake off). The rest of the gulf states do similar and they share the love all over to curry goodwill with disparate western powers. For instance Qatar's purchase of F15s, Rafales, Typhoons and C17 heavy strategic transports is more a reflection of diplomatic than military necessity. What all this buys is a blind eye to human rights abuses and terrorism support in the good times and a safe place to fly the private jet if and when an angry mob storm the presidential palace.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,281 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Fat Saudi soldiers fighting hill farmers and herders. Lads who had a gun at 8 and run over mountains vs lads who have a McDonald's on base.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,336 ✭✭✭rockatansky


    Homelander wrote: »
    Why is the Saudi military so appallingly weak when they spend such absolutely enormous amounts of money on it? Iran would wipe the floor with them despite having a fraction of the military budget. It's like a fascist era Italy for the modern day.

    Can I ask what this is based on? Iran still uses the F-14 tomcats while the Saudi Airforce uses much more advanced fighters?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,281 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Can I ask what this is based on? Iran still uses the F-14 tomcats while the Saudi Airforce uses much more advanced fighters?

    The Saudis forces are widely reported to be shocking, overweight, lazy, cowardly, badly trained unmotivated.

    What use the most advanced plane in the world if the person flying it is substandard by any definition.


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