Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Imreoir2 · 16-09-2019 12:18AM

GM228 wrote: »

A potentially interesting twist, J Maugham believes he has found a flaw in the Benn Act which could see a legit no deal in spite of the Act depending on other factors coming into play:-

The cunning plan to end all cunning plans. It does of course ignore that the opposition have the numbers to pass a law to remove any such complication just like they passed the Benn act in the first place.

GM228 · 16-09-2019 12:42AM

Imreoir2 wrote: »

The cunning plan to end all cunning plans. It does of course ignore that the opposition have the numbers to pass a law to remove any such complication just like they passed the Benn act in the first place.

The problem is whilst they have the numbers, they may not have the same keen legal eye's as Maugham, or that they don't believe his opinion (he does seem to be on the money though), or that assuming the SC decision goes in the PMs favour that when recalled on the 14th there simply would not be enough time to table an amendment, debate it, get it through the various stages etc in time.

Maugham himself states the best way to bypass the flaw is:-

for MPs to refuse to approve any motion for a WA on or before 19 October. Those who want the Withdrawal Agreement should refuse on the basis that, by voting for it, they may well be delivering No Deal

Amendments may not be a realistic option, even if the SC upholds the Scottish decision, if an amendment was an option I think it would have been mentioned, and to be fair he knows his law and the law making process very well.

Enzokk · 16-09-2019 12:54AM

GM228 wrote: »

The problem is whilst they have the numbers, they may not have the same keen legal eye's as Maugham, or that they don't believe his opinion (he does seem to be on the money though), or that assuming the SC decision goes in the PMs favour that when recalled on the 14th there simply would not be enough time to table an amendment, debate it, get it through the various stages etc in time.

Maugham himself states the best way to bypass the flaw is:-

Amendments may not be a realistic option, even if the SC upholds the Scottish decision, if an amendment was an option I think it would have been mentioned, he knows his law very well.

The other problem is if he agrees to a deal only then to have it expire and they leave without a deal, once the crap hits the fan Johnson will take 100% responsibility for it. The EU would be open to an extension to have the legislation passed for the deal, if he declines to ask for one he owns no deal. The EU will not or shouldn't make it easy for him. Check all freight in France, let the delays stack up in Dover due to this and see how long he lasts.

RickBlaine · 16-09-2019 12:55AM

trellheim wrote: »

Assuming theres some secret deal ( yes, a big IF)

in sequencing a deal the EU will likely demand a confirmatory vote from Parliament prior to their acceptance of anything as thats what caused all the poo the last time.

WA2 I cant see Labour doing anything but opposing it and if they do it can never pass

They could put forward an amendment that the deal is subject to a people's vote with remain as the other option. The EU would almost certainly grant an extension for that.

CelticRambler · 16-09-2019 05:10AM

GM228 wrote: »

So would an incorrect perception be another reason for Scottish independence?

'Twas a good enough reason for the English to vote for Brexit, so why not? Every "good" reason for Brexit can be used to justify Scotland (and NI) casting off the shackles of the UKofGB&NI

Peregrinus · 16-09-2019 05:14AM

GM228 wrote: »

So would an incorrect perception be another reason for Scottish independence?

The important question is not whether it would be areason for Scottish independence, but whether it would be a motivation for Scottish independence.

Tell me how · 16-09-2019 06:52AM

Brexitcast continues to surprise me with its jocular approach to the topic given 4 very senior journalists involved.
Youd think by now they would be focusing on massively serious elements but they continue to treat it like a curious event rather than the serious matter it is.

Part if me now thinks it's because they don't want to showcase the ineptitude of the British position.

https://twitter.com/BBCSounds/status/1173174621161447427?s=19

Enzokk · 16-09-2019 07:40AM

Tell me how wrote: »

Brexitcast continues to surprise me with its jocular approach to the topic given 4 very senior journalists involved.
Youd think by now they would be focusing on massively serious elements but they continue to treat it like a curious event rather than the serious matter it is.

Part if me now thinks it's because they don't want to showcase the ineptitude of the British position.

https://twitter.com/BBCSounds/status/1173174621161447427?s=19

Best BBC Podcast that, apparently. The criticisms of their work has been plentiful already but they need to be careful in not trying to become part of the story. I feel Kuenssberg has gone past that point already, having had a documentary on her work during this and following her around. Her job is to report the news, not be the news.

woohoo!!! · 16-09-2019 09:05AM

Johnsons only option is to continue with the anti democratic attack line. A PM hurling from the ditch. I'd say he's calculating to get a majority in a GE and move swiftly towards a deal. The difficulty for him is, if the gamble doesn't work and he's the one that's been shouting for an election, then no deal consequnces will start to stick to him.

From the EUs perspective, may be better to let the dust settle and say no an extension request if one forthcoming. Not a lot to be gained to roll in the mud with the intrigues of what passes for UK politics these days.

Leroy42 · 16-09-2019 09:12AM

I agree, I can see no advantage to an extension. I get we all want to avoid No Deal, but it appears that Johnson, the cabinet and a sizeable portion of the UK electorate want no deal and at this point any deal agreed is almost worthless.

If Johnson does manage to get a deal through, clearly someone is going to lose out. Be it DUP, Scotland, Ireland or the EU. And waiting in the wings in Farage and a BP who will push the Johnson capitulation line to win seats off Tories and cost them any chance of a majority.

At the end, as it was at the start, all of this is about the Tory party and how to protect itself. For some reason they fear BP far more than the LibDems.

Zubeneschamali · 16-09-2019 09:27AM

Leroy42 wrote: »

I get we all want to avoid No Deal, but it appears that Johnson, the cabinet and a sizeable portion of the UK electorate want no deal and at this point any deal agreed is almost worthless.

May couldn't get a deal through, and Johnson doesn't even have her working majority. He cannot possibly get a deal through.

Parliament won't allow No Deal.

They will get another extension and have an election and eventually a referendum, revoke A50 and that'll be that.

farmchoice · 16-09-2019 09:30AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

May couldn't get a deal through, and Johnson doesn't even have her working majority. He cannot possibly get a deal through.

Parliament won't allow No Deal.

They will get another extension and have an election and eventually a referendum, revoke A50 and that'll be that.

i agree, about 6 months ago i predicted the second ref will be june 2020 and im going to stick with that.

woohoo!!! · 16-09-2019 09:43AM

Certainly a possibility. At this stage if such comes to pass, it won't silence Farage and co, and it won't silence independent calls for Scotland and NI. So even in a best case scenario, lots of uncertainty, no getting pandora back in her box.

Peregrinus · 16-09-2019 09:51AM

woohoo!!! wrote: »

Certainly a possibility. At this stage if such comes to pass, it won't silence Farage and co, and it won't silence independent calls for Scotland and NI. So even in a best case scenario, lots of uncertainty, no getting pandora back in her box.

Nerdy nitpick: Pandora wasn't in the box; it was she who opened the box.

Kermit.de.frog · 16-09-2019 09:54AM

Johnson and Juncker press conference is at 2:15.

Hopefully some of the nonsense can be cut through.

The Finnish are saying there has been nothing from the British side that comes remotely close to what the backstop would deliver in terms of certainty for Ireland.

Usurper. · 16-09-2019 10:03AM

There won't be anything concrete from Johnson this side of an election surely

Is the plan for a extension and then a deal after the election ?

Peregrinus · 16-09-2019 10:05AM

Usurper. wrote: »

There won't be anything concrete from Johnson this side of an election surely

Is the plan for a extension and then a deal after the election ?

Is there a plan for anything at all?

Or did there used to be a plan, but it fell to bits when he overplayed his hand, and now he's flying by the seat of his pants?

is_that_so · 16-09-2019 10:06AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Johnson and Juncker press conference is at 2:15.

Hopefully some of the nonsense can be cut through.

The Finnish are saying there has been nothing from the British side that comes remotely close to what the backstop would deliver in terms of certainty for Ireland.

I actually don't expect much of anything, just the usual well-meaning determination to make progress.

lawred2 · 16-09-2019 10:08AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

Is there a plan for anything at all?

Or did there used to be a plan, but it fell to bits when he overplayed his hand, and now he's flying by the seat of his pants?

Did you not read about the chess board?

Usurper. · 16-09-2019 10:17AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

Is there a plan for anything at all?

Or did there used to be a plan, but it fell to bits when he overplayed his hand, and now he's flying by the seat of his pants?

He needs an election,that's for sure

Sam Russell · 16-09-2019 10:22AM

Usurper. wrote: »

He needs an election,that's for sure

Which is exactly why the opposition should not allow one for at least six months. Whatever happens between now and then would be very bad for the Tories.

Of course, is the SC finds the Scottish decision is correct and BJ lied to the Q then he is toast. If he does not resign, then a VoNC in him will force him out.

lawred2 · 16-09-2019 10:25AM

Sam Russell wrote: »

Which is exactly why the opposition should not allow one for at least six months. Whatever happens between now and then would be very bad for the Tories.

Of course, is the SC finds the Scottish decision is correct and BJ lied to the Q then he is toast. If he does not resign, then a VoNC in him will force him out.

And who will table that?

The right thing to do would be to stand back and leave it as the only possible way out for the Tories - that they would be forced to table a VONC in themselves... that would take this to new levels of absurdity.

trellheim · 16-09-2019 10:26AM

Of course, is the SC finds the Scottish decision is correct and BJ lied to the Q then he is toast

Plus all the privy councillors who went along with it, very difficult to firewall that puppy off, so the whole cabinet nearly

VinLieger · 16-09-2019 10:34AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Johnson and Juncker press conference is at 2:15.

Hopefully some of the nonsense can be cut through.

The Finnish are saying there has been nothing from the British side that comes remotely close to what the backstop would deliver in terms of certainty for Ireland.

Id bet money he's offering Juncker an NI backstop and dump the DUP

Im not sure even that would pass through HOC but it will be on the table before October 31st

Usurper. · 16-09-2019 10:36AM

How does he offer anything with no power
to deliver

briany · 16-09-2019 10:37AM

VinLieger wrote: »

Id bet money he's offering Juncker an NI backstop and dump the DUP

In that case, what's old is new again.

Akrasia · 16-09-2019 10:42AM

woohoo!!! wrote: »

Johnsons only option is to continue with the anti democratic attack line. A PM hurling from the ditch. I'd say he's calculating to get a majority in a GE and move swiftly towards a deal. The difficulty for him is, if the gamble doesn't work and he's the one that's been shouting for an election, then no deal consequnces will start to stick to him.

From the EUs perspective, may be better to let the dust settle and say no an extension request if one forthcoming. Not a lot to be gained to roll in the mud with the intrigues of what passes for UK politics these days.

This would be an awful strategy. If he campaigns in a GE based on delivering an ultra hard brexit and somehow manages to get a majority, and then he tries to use that majority to push through something akin to May's deal with a few minor changes, then he's setting himself up for a backbench rebellion that would render his majority meaningless.

If he campaigns on a hard brexit and ends up in a coalition with the Brexit party, then between Farage and the ERG, he would have no majority for any kind of Deal with the EU either.

swampgas · 16-09-2019 10:43AM

It's looking like a hard Brexit to me. This will be a disaster for many but appeals to a large group of disparate people:

Disaster capitalists like JRM
DUP factions who want the GFA wrecked, regardless of cost
Wealthy elites looking to protect offshore money
Idiots brainwashed by ideology - England throwing off its shackles
Smart(ish) people seduced by ideology - Empire 2.0
The people behind the gutter press
The Atlantic Bridge mob
Russia / Putin
Certain right wing US billionaires
UK politicians that value getting into power and damaging the Tories more than stopping or limiting Brexit
Scottish nationalists
Irish nationalists
Apathetic, bored, useless "let's just get it over with" voters who deserve everything they get.
Boris Johnson's backers.

And who is in the other corner, winning hearts and minds in favour of the EU? The Guardian? The Lib Dems? (The BBC are useless.)

It's not exactly an even match, is it?

Akrasia · 16-09-2019 10:46AM

Leroy42 wrote: »

At the end, as it was at the start, all of this is about the Tory party and how to protect itself. For some reason they fear BP far more than the LibDems.

Due to FPTP, the brexit party are a huge threat to the Tories, and the Lib dems are a huge benefit to them

If the Lib Dems split the Labour vote, it will allow the Tories to romp home in a GE, but only if the Brexit party don't also split the Tory vote.

It's a stupid, ridiculous electoral system

Nody · 16-09-2019 10:51AM

Farage has now come out stating he expects an extension as Boris "new deal" will not pass through the parliament; what's with the lack of faith and hard positive thinking these days in the Brexiteer camp?! We were told that was all that was required and now they are backpedaling...

Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Comments