Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Inquitus · 09-09-2019 05:48PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

It's a feeling I've had almost since he became PM. Everything he's done with his 'no deal' threats, seemed more aimed at a domestic audience than the EU. It's parliament that's prevented a deal and the one obstacle that he needs to get past, regardless of what deal he's pursuing. So wind down the clock, wind up the rhetoric and frighten them into a corner where they feel thay have no choice.

Parliament has been surprisingly resilient though. So still up in the air.

As mentioned above by someone he doesn't even have the numbers to get a NI only backstop only through, looking at it......

Also he really wants an election on Brexit lines, Tories will pick up the main chunk of the pro-Brexit vote, and Lab, Lib Dems, SNP, etc. etc. will fragment the larger remain vote, and under the utterly undemocratic FPTP system, the Tories end up with a majority.

Lab don't have the balls to drop Corbyn which would make them much more elecatable, and the Lib Dems are polling very well as are the SNP in Scotland where the Tories could be wiped out again, esp now they have lost Ruth Davidson.

Professor Moriarty · 09-09-2019 05:55PM

woejus wrote: »

Probably because of the way Bercow pronounced his name over the years, to wit

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sBxr2_w5ga8

Disappointing to see the Tory frontbenchers sit on their hands, courtesy costs nothing.

When you look at the individuals involved, it's unsurprising.

J Mysterio · 09-09-2019 05:55PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

It's a feeling I've had almost since he became PM. Everything he's done with his 'no deal' threats, seemed more aimed at a domestic audience than the EU. It's parliament that's prevented a deal and the one obstacle that he needs to get past, regardless of what deal he's pursuing. So wind down the clock, wind up the rhetoric and frighten them into a corner where they feel thay have no choice.

Parliament has been surprisingly resilient though. So still up in the air.

Seemed to me the pressure was at its zenith during the May's attempts to force the WA through. Boris just can't really be taken seriously, even on serious matters.

Joe_ Public · 09-09-2019 05:55PM

Inquitus wrote: »

As mentioned above by someone he doesn't even have the numbers to get a NI only backstop only through, looking at it......

Also he really wants an election on Brexit lines, Tories will pick up the main chunk of the pro-Brexit vote, and Lab, Lib Dems, SNP, etc. etc. will fragment the larger remain vote, and under the utterly undemocratic FPTP system, the Tories end up with a majority.

Lab don't have the balls to drop Corbyn which would make them much more elecatable, and the Lib Dems are polling very well as are the SNP in Scotland where the Tories could be wiped out again, esp now they have lost Ruth Davidson.

Agree with a lot of this, i remain unconvinced by the NI only backstop fall back. They seem totally in all out war mode to me which suggests no recourse to any change on the backstop policy, though only time will tell us on that. But i dont agree with your thrust on the labour leader position. Corbyn is leader because he is supported by the majority of the membership and i havent seen any indication of any change on that.

trellheim · 09-09-2019 05:57PM

Correct. With any backstop the ERG are out and labour have consistently opposed May's deal.

(one suspects the pressure for no-deal is not simply for EU 27 but also to back Labour into a corner )

This is a real risky play but if it gets to an NI backstop you just need to vote a simple majority in the House. With crunch time you could really hold it up to Labour if they then vote against an NI backstop deal as a no-deal would then be on Labour, right in the teeth of a GE . If Labour abstain a NI only backstop would go through and probably ERG and DUP can be ignored .

Expect this to get much more fun soon

09-09-2019 06:03PM

It's going to be NI-backstop. It comes down to UK blinking amongst themselves, and they will.

Joe_ Public · 09-09-2019 06:06PM

trellheim wrote: »

Correct. With any backstop the ERG are out and labour have consistently opposed May's deal.

(one suspects the pressure for no-deal is not simply for EU 27 but also to back Labour into a corner )

This is a real risky play but if it gets to an NI backstop you just need to vote a simple majority in the House. With crunch time you could really hold it up to Labour if they then vote against an NI backstop deal as a no-deal would then be on Labour, right in the teeth of a GE . If Labour abstain a NI only backstop would go through and probably ERG and DUP can be ignored .

Expect this to get much more fun soon

It would put Labour in a tricky position if it came to pass alright. The backstop, whether NI only or UK wide, was never much of an issue for Labour so their wider issues would still remain. I suspect either that they would grudgingly pass the bill in the event of a guaranteed public vote or, failing that, they would ensure it never got to it as there would be a VONC some time before heading it off.

Joe_ Public · 09-09-2019 06:13PM

Dont know if anyone saw the tory spad on sky news earlier, forget the name, but he is currently unemployed since Amber Rudd's resignation and felt willing and able to speak freely about the party's election chances. According to him, extensive private polling and focus groups by No.10 over the past few weeks had led them to conclude it would be a "tough election" for them. The number mentioned was 295-300 seats which was the top number he felt they could reach. They would lose seats in London, the south-west and Scotland and felt they'd have to win 35 seats in areas they'd never won before and that was just to stand still!

Strazdas · 09-09-2019 06:17PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

It's a feeling I've had almost since he became PM. Everything he's done with his 'no deal' threats, seemed more aimed at a domestic audience than the EU. It's parliament that's prevented a deal and the one obstacle that he needs to get past, regardless of what deal he's pursuing. So wind down the clock, wind up the rhetoric and frighten them into a corner where they feel thay have no choice.

Parliament has been surprisingly resilient though. So still up in the air.

A lot of the talk coming out of the EU seems to be on the NI only backstop. It appears to be the only way the UK can possibly leave with a WA.

Both Tony Connelly and Katya Adler are focusing on the NI only backstop in their reports this evening.

gooch2k9 · 09-09-2019 06:23PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Dont know if anyone saw the tory spad on sky news earlier, forget the name, but he is currently unemployed since Amber Rudd's resignation and felt willing and able to speak freely about the party's election chances. According to him, extensive private polling and focus groups by No.10 over the past few weeks had led them to conclude it would be a "tough election" for them. The number mentioned was 295-300 seats which was the top number he felt they could reach. They would lose seats in London, the south-west and Scotland and felt they'd have to win 35 seats in areas they'd never won before and that was just to stand still!

Potential bait for the opposition tonight? They haven't really tried much to this point, bar the chicken stuff.

Rjd2 · 09-09-2019 06:25PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Dont know if anyone saw the tory spad on sky news earlier, forget the name, but he is currently unemployed since Amber Rudd's resignation and felt willing and able to speak freely about the party's election chances. According to him, extensive private polling and focus groups by No.10 over the past few weeks had led them to conclude it would be a "tough election" for them. The number mentioned was 295-300 seats which was the top number he felt they could reach. They would lose seats in London, the south-west and Scotland and felt they'd have to win 35 seats in areas they'd never won before and that was just to stand still!

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1171046516452204544

Seems to be a lot of disinformation out their to try and force a general election regarding that poll. Oddly coming out just as Boris trying to force an early election...:rolleyes:

I have said before that it will be Labour coalition after next election, but will admit I could be wrong. 4 parties all doing well in one poll or other,,if John Curtice is reluctant to predict what will happen,,,well:eek:

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-general-election-poll-boris-johnson-conservatives-labour-lib-dems-vote-a9097216.html

devnull · 09-09-2019 06:27PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Dont know if anyone saw the tory spad on sky news earlier, forget the name, but he is currently unemployed since Amber Rudd's resignation and felt willing and able to speak freely about the party's election chances. According to him, extensive private polling and focus groups by No.10 over the past few weeks had led them to conclude it would be a "tough election" for them. The number mentioned was 295-300 seats which was the top number he felt they could reach. They would lose seats in London, the south-west and Scotland and felt they'd have to win 35 seats in areas they'd never won before and that was just to stand still!

It's a deliberate, mischievous leak in order to try and hoodwink people into voting for an election. That much is completely obvious.

If any opposition leader falls for it they'll be the most gullible politician of all time.

Joe_ Public · 09-09-2019 06:32PM

devnull wrote: »

It's a deliberate, mischievous leak in order to try and hoodwink people into voting for an election. That much is completely obvious.

If any opposition leader falls for it they'll be the most gullible politician of all time.

I suppose anything's possible, but i dont think so all the same. Doubt very much it was any sort of government manoeuvre, as the guy releasing the info to Sky this morning is an ex member of the government (Jason Stein, as named above). Nor do i think it can achieve anything only to put the tories position regarding an election into focus and embarrass them a little further. Not going to affect the opposition one way or the other.

briany · 09-09-2019 06:38PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I suppose anything's possible, but i dont think so all the same. Doubt very much it was any sort of government manoeuvre, as the guy releasing the info to Sky this morning is an ex member of the government (Jason Stein, as named above). Nor do i think it can achieve anything only to put the tories position regarding an election into focus and embarrass them a little further. Not going to affect the opposition one way or the other.

The opposition will have done their own polling anyway.

Joe_ Public · 09-09-2019 06:43PM

briany wrote: »

The opposition will have done their own polling anyway.

Oh, i'm sure they have and are, but as mentioned above, the idea of labour or other opposition parties falling for such a basic ruse as the one suggested just seems so unlikely that i have to admit i never considered it for a second when i was watching the interview this morning. I suppose its possible, but i'm more inclined to think it was just a guy, maybe a bit peeved at losing his job, giving out information they'd probably prefer to keep in house.

PropJoe10 · 09-09-2019 06:50PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

I've clipped his resignation speech here.

https://parliamentlive.tv/event/index/912439c0-627c-4f85-a4ba-14c533a880dd?in=15:37:30&out=15:46:04

As pointed out, the Tory front bench are absolutely loathsome. They can't even give a little clap for a man for 22 years of service to their national parliament (10 years as Speaker). Whether you like him or not, for gods sake have some decency.

Common decency has long since forsaken the Conservative Party. When you see the like of Ken Clarke, Rory Stewart and Philip Hammond ejected for standing by traditional Tory principles, then it really tells you all you need to know about the current rabble on the front bench.

jochenstacker · 09-09-2019 06:51PM

Nooooo! Bercow resigns!

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/john-bercow-quits-resignation-retirement-brexit-parliament-speaker-eu-a9097831.html

Bit cynical · 09-09-2019 06:52PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

It's a feeling I've had almost since he became PM. Everything he's done with his 'no deal' threats, seemed more aimed at a domestic audience than the EU. It's parliament that's prevented a deal and the one obstacle that he needs to get past, regardless of what deal he's pursuing. So wind down the clock, wind up the rhetoric and frighten them into a corner where they feel thay have no choice.

Parliament has been surprisingly resilient though. So still up in the air.

Well the individual MPs in parliament are fairly well protected from the economic consequences of a no deal exit. Their constituencies are not, but the MPs can blame Johnson for that even though, in many cases, it was the MPs who voted against the deal when they were given the chance.

Headshot · 09-09-2019 06:57PM

I'm gutted to see John Bercow resign. He was a brilliant speaker but isnt it telling the Toris remained seated when he announced he was leaving. Such a nasty party.

I see the buzzards are already surrounding the carcass looking to get nominated when John steps down. They have no decency or respect at all.

Joe_ Public · 09-09-2019 06:59PM

Headshot wrote: »

I'm gutted to see John Bercow resign. He was a brilliant speaker but isnt it telling the Toris remained seated when he announced he was leaving. Such a nasty party.

I see the buzzards are already surrounding the carcass looking to get nominated when John steps down. They have no decency or respect at all.

His last great act, though, will be to ensure the next speaker is elected by THIS parliament and not the NEXT one, whenever that is, so i'm not too suprised those tories were fairly peeved with him right to the end.

Professor Moriarty · 09-09-2019 07:00PM

Grieve talking about whistleblowers and scandal in HoC. Something is rotten in the state...

Capt'n Midnight · 09-09-2019 07:03PM

Akrasia wrote: »

He'd want to be fair sick to not be able to send a letter when he doesn't even have to buy his own stamps

After using the "takes a week for the ink" to dry to delay the last queens speech they may try the "it's in the post" routine. :pac:

*Tracking and Signature services to Ireland, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Netherlands, Switzerland, Belgium, Sweden, Austria and Luxembourg have a delivery aim of 3-4 working days.

Loss claims should not be submitted until after 20 working days after the due delivery date for items going to Europe

But I'm sure the EU would allow a very short extension to allow for such unforeseen irregularities

Igotadose · 09-09-2019 07:03PM

Headshot wrote: »

I'm gutted to see John Bercow resign. He was a brilliant speaker but isnt it telling the Toris remained seated when he announced he was leaving. Such a nasty party.

I see the buzzards are already surrounding the carcass looking to get nominated when John steps down. They have no decency or respect at all.

Remarkable none of the government ministers applauded, even when Bercow thanked his family. What a petty bunch.

If it's a minority government after the next election, couldn't the election of Speaker be pretty challenging? Every party in coalition could nominate someone...

Professor Moriarty · 09-09-2019 07:04PM

Igotadose wrote: »

Remarkable none of the government ministers applauded, even when Bercow thanked his family. What a petty bunch.

If it's a minority government after the next election, couldn't the election of Speaker be pretty challenging? Every party in coalition could nominate someone...

The bookies' favourite is Lindsay Hoyle, deputy speaker.

Joe_ Public · 09-09-2019 07:06PM

Igotadose wrote: »

Remarkable none of the government ministers applauded, even when Bercow thanked his family. What a petty bunch.

If it's a minority government after the next election, couldn't the election of Speaker be pretty challenging? Every party in coalition could nominate someone...

Michael Gove at least did pay him a fairly decent tribute but even that felt a bit two-handed and it is only a couple of years since Gove, along with William Hague, tried to have Bercow removed. Bercow got a standing ovation after that devious plot to oust him failed too.

briany · 09-09-2019 07:07PM

Igotadose wrote: »

Remarkable none of the government ministers applauded, even when Bercow thanked his family. What a petty bunch.

If it's a minority government after the next election, couldn't the election of Speaker be pretty challenging? Every party in coalition could nominate someone...

You'd need someone who commands respect across the house. Tough ask.

Joe_ Public · 09-09-2019 07:09PM

As mentioned above, Bercow's replacement will be nominated before the end of this parliament. No doubt, a parting gift from him to his colleagues sitting to his right.

Headshot · 09-09-2019 07:10PM

oh no not that bloody blonde woman back on the panel on Sky News again

Butter wouldnt melt in BJ.....

Enzokk · 09-09-2019 07:17PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Grieve talking about whistleblowers and scandal in HoC. Something is rotten in the state...

You have Cummings who is in contempt of parliament and you have the heads of Vote Leave at the heart of government, is it any wonder they would act dishonestly? Listening to Gove it makes my head spin that he was on of the best the Tories had to put forward as leader. Liars and charlatans who have no respect for the law or the people they are supposed to serve.

A Shropshire Lad · 09-09-2019 07:21PM

Headshot wrote: »

oh no not that bloody blonde woman back on the panel on Sky News again

Butter wouldnt melt in BJ.....

Saw her the other night too. All she kept saying over and over again was "Boris has a vision for the country..."

The obsession the media have with being 'Balanced' really throws up some oddballs.

Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

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