Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

8-10 · 09-09-2019 02:47PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Border in the Irish Sea IS the backstop - the original NI-only backstop.

VinLieger wrote: »

Border in the sea is the Backstop

Not quite, the backstop agreement is for the whole of the UK to be aligned with EU customs union after the post-Brexit transition period, not just NI

Duane Dibbley · 09-09-2019 02:53PM

Anyone know what time voting is this evening?

J Mysterio · 09-09-2019 02:59PM

54and56 wrote: »

I always enjoyed Faisal Islams contributions on Sky but since becoming BBC Economics Editor he seems to have moved out of the front line a lot and isn't used as the flagship Newsnight Economics Editor as that is given to Ben Chu.

Tony Connelly is required reading for anyone looking for an Irish slant on what's going on Brexit wise. He is massively insightful and clearly very well connected.

Peter Foster is relatively new on my radar but over the last few weeks I've been reading some of his output, which as Europe Editor of The Telegraph, I was expecting to be partisan flag waving bluster but he seems to have a super ability to strip away the noise and really focus on the practical realities.

He absolutely rips the BoJo/ERG nonsense apart in last weeks Choppers Brexit Podcast which is without doubt the best 30 minutes of Brexit podcast I've ever listened to.

I recommend everyone take the time to enjoy this.

It was a pretty good listen. Your man Foster obviously understands the issues, which is quite refreshing.

Hearing the other guy - Tim or whatever his name was - try and compare the WA to the NAFTA deal when asking 'where is the equivalent backstop in NAFTA?' was an absolute facepalm moment though. There are so many people in the UK who would appear to be reasonably intelligent (good education, good job, nice suit) and they just don't flucking get it.

I also watched the video linked to in your signature: 'this man is a hero' - I hadn't seen that before and it was really powerful, hairs standing up watching that.

Akrasia · 09-09-2019 03:03PM

josip wrote: »

Could he pull a sickie to avoid asking for an extension or is the deputy PM bound by the same legislation?

He'd want to be fair sick to not be able to send a letter when he doesn't even have to buy his own stamps

Leroy42 · 09-09-2019 03:07PM

Akrasia wrote: »

He'd want to be fair sick to not be able to send a letter when he doesn't even have to buy his own stamps

Its funny, because I actually think they have already thought of it!

But again, Johnson is supposed to the man that leads the UK into the new dawn of being outside the EU. Leading the negotiations with countries all around the world.

Yet he is afraid of his own parliament, looks to break his own laws and is, by all reports, not engaging in any sort of meaningful discussions because he can't think of how to solve any of the problems.

Are other countries really going to want to deal with level of incompetence? The EU are duty bound to at least appear to want to continue discussions, but countries like the US will have no such duty.

ancapailldorcha · 09-09-2019 03:07PM

briany wrote: »

If UK allies itself towards Russia after Brexit, then they'll probably not bother.

Why on earth would the UK align itself with a lesser power? According to this, the UK is currently the sixth richest nation in the world with Russia being twelfth. In addition, Russia is even more unequal than the UK, 78 to 105 respectively in the rankings based on the Gini coefficient, a measure of economic disparity.

Straying into the anecdotal here, I know but when I was in Russia, the variation I saw in Moscow and St. Petersburg was shocking. Parts of these cities aren't too much more aesthetically pleasing than Havana and you'll find proper upscale boutiques, cafes and the like for Russia's ultra rich not far away. I thought the north of England was but this was completely different. All Russia really has to trade with is its oil and natural gas reserves and this isn't a long term strategy.

The smart strategy for the UK would be to align with China or the US though obviously this is once the idea of alienating their closest friends and allies is implemented fully.

VinLieger · 09-09-2019 03:11PM

8-10 wrote: »

Not quite, the backstop agreement is for the whole of the UK to be aligned with EU customs union after the post-Brexit transition period, not just NI

The original backstop was for NI only though so a border in the Irish sea is simply the original backstop that was suggested by the UK

Popeleo · 09-09-2019 03:13PM

robinph wrote: »

All he needs to do is include a line in that about leaving without a deal, everyone votes against it and the Queens Speach doesn't pass. That is essentially a vote of no confidence in himself and so an election is triggered by not getting the new session of parliament opened successfully.

I don't think that is possible (but it would surprise me if it was not considered by this shower). The FTPA specifies the exact wording for a VONC, so passing or otherwise of the Queen's Speech or any other motion would not trigger it.

Just one line - "That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's government." And the opposition haven't been stupid enough so far to go down that road.

J Mysterio · 09-09-2019 03:20PM

Looks like the lads are going after these 'Spads'.

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1171051645985349633

ancapailldorcha · 09-09-2019 03:23PM

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

Anyone know what time voting is this evening?

Depends on everything else by the look of the order paper:

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmagenda/OP190909.pdf

josip · 09-09-2019 03:28PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Looks like the lads are going after these 'Spads'.

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1171051645985349633

Quite all encompassing although I doubt if Cummings has been as careless as to leave a trace, some others might have.

Telegram btw, is not what you perhaps think it is.
https://telegram.org/

devnull · 09-09-2019 03:30PM

Bercow to make statement at 3.30pm.

His wife's there so I'm curious if it's about his future? Probably standing down, huge shame if so.

gmisk · 09-09-2019 03:31PM

josip wrote: »

Quite all encompassing although I doubt if Cummings has been as careless as to leave a trace, some others might have.

Telegram btw, is not what you perhaps think it is.
https://telegram.org/

They will also be looking for pages, smoke signals, pigeons, crows, morse code and semaphore

Itssoeasy · 09-09-2019 03:33PM

The law blocking no deal has been approved by the queen. So next move boris.

lawred2 · 09-09-2019 03:34PM

devnull wrote: »

Bercow to make statement at 3.30pm.

His wife's there so I'm curious if it's about his future? Probably standing down, huge shame if so.

that would be.. surely he could see out this parliament... not like it has long left

lawred2 · 09-09-2019 03:36PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

It was a pretty good listen. Your man Foster obviously understands the issues, which is quite refreshing.

Hearing the other guy - Tim or whatever his name was - try and compare the WA to the NAFTA deal when asking 'where is the equivalent backstop in NAFTA?' was an absolute facepalm moment though. There are so many people in the UK who would appear to be reasonably intelligent (good education, good job, nice suit) and they just don't flucking get it.

I also watched the video linked to in your signature: 'this man is a hero' - I hadn't seen that before and it was really powerful, hairs standing up watching that.

yeah but did you hear that lady get all excited for that moronic question? "good question" she said :rolleyes:

devnull · 09-09-2019 03:40PM

If they call for an election tonight Bercow will stand down, otherwise he will stand down on 31st October.

He’s standing down before an election so govt (if there is a majority) cannot replace him with their preferred candidate.

Basically he's going but not in a way that helps Johnson in the short term.

Itssoeasy · 09-09-2019 03:41PM

John bercow is stepping down as speaker. That shower in the ERG have gotten their way.

54and56 · 09-09-2019 03:42PM

VinLieger wrote: »

How does he get the WA through parliament though?

By using actual facts rather than useless emotional rhetoric.

NI is NOT the same as Scotland, Wales or England.

1. It's a disputed territory with more or less equal numbers wanting to be re-unified with RoI as want to remain in the UK (and an increasing number of mostly younger people who don't identify with either status!)

2. It has recently in historic terms ended a multi decade bloody civil war with a peace treaty which is based on an all island economy underpinned by both territories being members of the EU, a commitment from the UK Govt that it has no "selfish strategic or economic interest" in Northern Ireland and it has a clearly defined path to re-unification with RoI via a border referendum process. None of these circumstances apply to Scotland, England or Wales.

3. It is geographically separate from GB and for practical reasons operates differently from GB in terms of being part of an all island electricity market and across many other forms of all island co-operation from waterways to healthcare and most importantly agriculture.

For the above and many other reasons NI is ALREADY treated differently within the UK to Scotland, England and Wales.

If the list of priorities for BoJo boils down to crashing out on a no deal and facing into an election where the front pages are dominated by job losses, 48 hour tailbacks into Calais, shortages of fresh food, a crashing pound etc or re-presenting a NI only backstop as the best of both worlds gift that it is to everyone in NI bar the hardline DUP members we all know BoJo is a man for whom self preservation is a #1 priority and in such a scenario, especially when the DUP confidence and supply agreement no longer makes a blind bit of difference to the HoC arithmetic I can see him bundling a few more little tweaks and apparent concessions (political statement to be re-written to be all about a FTA etc) into a "new" WA which will lose him hardest of hard line ERG'ers (those who have never once voted for the WA) but in exchange he will get enough Labour Leave MP's (excluding the bitter and twisted Kate Hoey) to get it over the line so a GE can be held where he gets to bask in the glory of having gotten Brexit done, do or die!!

Itssoeasy · 09-09-2019 03:46PM

The front bench on the government side didn’t even turn around and clap to where his wife and family were sitting. Vile people.

prawnsambo · 09-09-2019 03:47PM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

John bercow is stepping down as speaker. That shower in the ERG agave gotten their way.

He's managed to stymie them though, by making sure that this parliament elects his successor.

devnull · 09-09-2019 03:47PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

He's managed to stymie them though, by making sure that this parliament elects his successor.

“MPs are elected not as delegates but as representatives. We degrade this parliament at our peril.” Another dig there at the Tories.

Bit of a masterstroke from Bercow really, he knew his time was pretty much up but decided that he would leave on his own terms as well as taking the gameplaying head on.

Sparko · 09-09-2019 03:48PM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

The front bench on the government side didn’t even turn around and clap to where his wife and family were sitting. Vile people.

I noted that, they looked like bold schoolchildren. Embarrassing.

Itssoeasy · 09-09-2019 03:49PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

He's managed to stymie them though, by making sure that this parliament elects his successor.

Yeah actually he’s getting one last chance to stick it to that shower.

J Mysterio · 09-09-2019 03:51PM

Nightmare for Bercow to step down. Would have loved for him to stay until there was some resolution one way or another.
Who the hell might be next?

josip · 09-09-2019 03:55PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Nightmare for Bercow to step down. Would have loved for him to stay until there was some resolution one way or another.
Who the hell might be next?

Ken Clarke for an encore

gmisk · 09-09-2019 03:56PM

Replacement for Bercow could be Chris Bryant......I did love his destruction of Kay Burley in fairness!

quokula · 09-09-2019 04:01PM

Do they really need to spend so much of their only day before parliament gets shut down paying tribute to Bercow?

No disrespect to him, but surely they can do that in their own time and get on with important business today.

weemcd · 09-09-2019 04:01PM

I'm pretty gutted Bercow is leaving, I can't blame him as the Tories were lining up to make his life a misery during the next election so he's just right to leave on his own terms. He's one of the very few members in the HOC with some integrity, and he's performed excellently in what must have been a terribly difficult job trying to mediate the clown court that is the British Commons.

I'd love to buy him a pint.

robinph · 09-09-2019 04:03PM

quokula wrote: »

Do they really need to spend so much of their only day before parliament gets shut down paying tribute to Bercow?

No disrespect to him, but surely they can do that in their own time and get on with important business today.

It needs to be said now or it will never get recorded in Hansard. Not a whole lot else for them to do today though other than vote against Johnson again.

Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

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