Property Market 2019

bilbot79 · 08-09-2019 11:14pm

smurgen wrote: »

It's also down to the fact that we don't want to enter the market now. There are those of us who just consider house prices not good value for money right now.we can buy but don't want to.

This is effectively what I mean. You won't buy because the price is so high that either you can't or won't.

08-09-2019 11:17pm

Funny how some people are wishing a recession so they can get their reduced price. Wake up call, recession equals a tightening of credit and no mortgage. Recession also spells job losses and increased taxes meaning less means. House prices have not reached the mental prices achieved in the bust, at least in Cork and are a long way off. I remember houses in my mams estate going for close to 400k, those same houses are still barely making 250k.

People are uneasy about Brexit and trumps economic war with China which is having major knock on effects. I expect Brexit not to happen and Trump to get some China concessions to end the trade war and make out he won. That will be the next kick in the economy that will drive it for another 5 years.

Will a recession hit, yes its inevitable, its the natural cycles, i am 36 and expect to see 4-5 market crashes before i retire and hope to at least double my pension once or twice with them.

shenanagans · 09-09-2019 12:36am

Deleted User wrote: »

Funny how some people are wishing a recession so they can get their reduced price. Wake up call, recession equals a tightening of credit and no mortgage. Recession also spells job losses and increased taxes meaning less means. House prices have not reached the mental prices achieved in the bust, at least in Cork and are a long way off. I remember houses in my mams estate going for close to 400k, those same houses are still barely making 250k.

People are uneasy about Brexit and trumps economic war with China which is having major knock on effects. I expect Brexit not to happen and Trump to get some China concessions to end the trade war and make out he won. That will be the next kick in the economy that will drive it for another 5 years.

Will a recession hit, yes its inevitable, its the natural cycles, i am 36 and expect to see 4-5 market crashes before i retire and hope to at least double my pension once or twice with them.

Totally agree. Strange how there's so many people that are either hoping for or talking themselves into another property crash. Many of whom probably couldn't or didn't buy in recent years when prices were cheap and now property has risen it's difficult to face paying the current prices. I'd resent buying a property if I looked at the price register and saw a similar place sold for half the price not that long ago (5-7 years since pit). But I think the property bust experienced here was a once in a generation opportunity to get a very cheap property. I'd be surprised if property fell by the same levels again so soon.

smurgen · 09-09-2019 7:54am

Deleted User wrote: »

Funny how some people are wishing a recession so they can get their reduced price. Wake up call, recession equals a tightening of credit and no mortgage. Recession also spells job losses and increased taxes meaning less means. House prices have not reached the mental prices achieved in the bust, at least in Cork and are a long way off. I remember houses in my mams estate going for close to 400k, those same houses are still barely making 250k.

People are uneasy about Brexit and trumps economic war with China which is having major knock on effects. I expect Brexit not to happen and Trump to get some China concessions to end the trade war and make out he won. That will be the next kick in the economy that will drive it for another 5 years.

Will a recession hit, yes its inevitable, its the natural cycles, i am 36 and expect to see 4-5 market crashes before i retire and hope to at least double my pension once or twice with them.

Some of us can and will take advantage of falling prices where we can.i make no bones about leveraging all i can to get the house i want as cheaply as i can.landlords and the older generations made as much as they could off us during the boom so I don't feel guilty buying a repossed house if i can get a bargain.
The stuff about losses etc is just emotive and your point about house prices not being near boom prices is absoltely la la land stuff.cork prices a few months back were every bit as high and higher as the celtic tiger.it's posts like this that make me think this place is packed full of estate agents desperate to take the market up no matter what.

smurgen · 09-09-2019 8:02am

shenanagans wrote: »

Totally agree. Strange how there's so many people that are either hoping for or talking themselves into another property crash. Many of whom probably couldn't or didn't buy in recent years when prices were cheap and now property has risen it's difficult to face paying the current prices. I'd resent buying a property if I looked at the price register and saw a similar place sold for half the price not that long ago (5-7 years since pit). But I think the property bust experienced here was a once in a generation opportunity to get a very cheap property. I'd be surprised if property fell by the same levels again so soon.

I'm hoping for a property crash that doesn't rely on such a cut in wages. Property prices has risen faster than real wage growth and to see a correct to this would be lovely. That said i am in a job that is recession proof for the next 25 years or so and specialist so it will not effect me much either way.

ZX7R · 09-09-2019 8:08am

smurgen wrote: »

Are you joking me? I remember rent was dirt cheap in cork city and suburbs.serious revisionism in this thread.

Cork must be special

09-09-2019 8:12am

smurgen wrote: »

Some of us can and will take advantage of falling prices where we can.i make no bones about leveraging all i can to get the house i want as cheaply as i can.landlords and the older generations made as much as they could off us during the boom so I don't feel guilty buying a repossed house if i can get a bargain.
The stuff about losses etc is just emotive and your point about house prices not being near boom prices is absoltely la la land stuff.cork prices a few months back were every bit as high and higher as the celtic tiger.it's posts like this that make me think this place is packed full of estate agents desperate to take the market up no matter what.

Maybe some places hit boom but no way has anywhere in the north side, lehenaghmore, togher, wilton Grange, frankfield etc has come anywhere close to the boom

Examples

Greenwood in togher boom prices were close to 400k, barely touching 300k and same with westside
Elmvale in Wilton actually hit 350k in the boom, not even making 250 now
Matthew hill was making 350 for a semi detached during the boom and not hitting 300k yet. Exclude the new houses as every new house is 40k more
Turners cross,mercier park hit 380k, average decent house not making 300k and plenty other examples
Frankfield and Grange are mostly under 300k
Lios rua in ballyvolane was getting 360-380k, not getting 300k

Exclude new builds as they are all higher due to the HTB and new standards.

Do people actually forget the boom madness

09-09-2019 8:17am

smurgen wrote: »

I'm hoping for a property crash that doesn't rely on such a cut in wages. Property prices has risen faster than real wage growth and to see a correct to this would be lovely. That said i am in a job that is recession proof for the next 25 years or so and specialist so it will not effect me much either way.

Be careful what you wish for, drop in house prices has a serious ripple effect. Most industries implemented 10-20% payouts, some be opportunistic with the bust. Tax hikes were savage and we still have the recession USC.

You may have a recession proof job but you could be down 30% take home pay, recession proof or not people will stop spending and being ripped off.

We wont have another 2008-2012 crash, no 110% mortgages,central bank sticking with the 3.5 times salary, if there is an adjustment expect 10-15% realistic. Some houses are still going cheaper than actual land and build price.

beauf · 09-09-2019 8:18am

ZX7R wrote: »

Cork must be special

It's not....

https://www.echolive.ie/corknews/Rents-in-Cork-are-rising-by-115-a-year-677d06bf-b95d-46d3-a892-2e9ae6e9f4da-ds

beauf · 09-09-2019 8:20am

[Deleted User] wrote: »

...

Do people actually forget the boom madness

Some people are posting anything old revisionist crap to suit the story they want to hear. They don't back it up with any links or data.

beauf · 09-09-2019 8:38am

smurgen wrote: »

....it's posts like this that make me think this place is packed full of estate agents desperate to take the market up no matter what...

We'll you're obviously right and anyone who disagrees is wrong.

But if you are right it makes no sense to buy in the next 6 months to a year as you say you are going to do as it will take much longer than that to hit rock bottom. Unless as you suggest. It falls about 4 times faster than the last time.

If estate agents were fleecing people over the last 10yrs they must be loaded. How would they be desperate. They will make the same fees and commission when people sell regardless. They will only not make money if the market is stagnant. A falling market is not stagnant.

ECO_Mental · 09-09-2019 8:50am

smurgen wrote: »

.cork prices a few months back were every bit as high and higher as the celtic tiger.it's posts like this that make me think this place is packed full of estate agents desperate to take the market up no matter what.

FALSE.....

I bought my house in Cork 2007 for 450k....

Today I am lucky if i get €350k.

I know I am putting it up on the market in the next week or so. Still nearly 30% off the 2007 highs....... Peoples memories are very short and dont realize how f**king crazy it was back then.

beauf · 09-09-2019 8:58am

Don't have to have a good memory. You can just search online. Property price registry etc. People can't be bothered though. You can double check anything an estate agent tells you, or is reported in the media.

smurgen · 09-09-2019 9:05am

Deleted User wrote: »

Maybe some places hit boom but no way has anywhere in the north side, lehenaghmore, togher, wilton Grange, frankfield etc has come anywhere close to the boom

Examples

Greenwood in togher boom prices were close to 400k, barely touching 300k and same with westside
Elmvale in Wilton actually hit 350k in the boom, not even making 250 now
Matthew hill was making 350 for a semi detached during the boom and not hitting 300k yet. Exclude the new houses as every new house is 40k more
Turners cross,mercier park hit 380k, average decent house not making 300k and plenty other examples
Frankfield and Grange are mostly under 300k
Lios rua in ballyvolane was getting 360-380k, not getting 300k

Exclude new builds as they are all higher due to the HTB and new standards.

Do people actually forget the boom madness

All those places now have houses that are over 10 years older and require work. How about places like rochestown,Douglas,ballincollig,glanmire, blackrock,blarney,carrigaline..i could go on and on.

ECO_Mental · 09-09-2019 9:28am

smurgen wrote: »

All those places now have houses that are over 10 years older and require work. How about places like rochestown,Douglas,ballincollig,glanmire, blackrock,blarney,carrigaline..i could go on and on.

My house is in Rochestown.......was 450k new now 350k

Cyrus · 09-09-2019 9:38am

smurgen wrote: »

Some of us can and will take advantage of falling prices where we can.

you are making buying a 350k house sound like warren buffet hoovering up plcs in a downturn :pac:

coolshannagh28 · 09-09-2019 9:42am

Spare a thought for outlying areas where 350 k boomtown houses are making 150 and owners are fearful the next crash will happen before there is any recovery.

fliball123 · 09-09-2019 10:30am

beauf wrote: »

I'll bet that fear rollercoaster is loved every one waiting for a crash so they repeat the cycle by buying property. Deja vu much?

We are at near Celtic Tiger boom levels. Only this time we have finally some controls on it.

Boards is great we have one thread full of Doom and another wanting all controls lifted so they can go full steam ahead.. Like a broken clock that's right twice a day. They'll both be right eventually.

Prices are still a long way away from the peak of 2007 you only have to look at historical trends for that.

shenanagans · 09-09-2019 10:36am

smurgen wrote: »

All those places now have houses that are over 10 years older and require work. How about places like rochestown,Douglas,ballincollig,glanmire, blackrock,blarney,carrigaline..i could go on and on.

Galway city is not back at boom prices either. I imagine Dublin would be possibly the place boom prices may be near.... Given the population and demand.

You'll find the odd exception but across the board it's not true to claim boom prices are back.

fliball123 · 09-09-2019 10:41am

beauf wrote: »

We're just repeating the same stories again at this point in this thread. With a certain amount of wishful thinking by some.

There is a differnces, people have more skin in the game you wont get as many keys jingle mailed back to the banks. People in trouble have options such as renting or renting a room to help supplement them during a drop in prices. I cant see a large increase in properties selling if they drop as apposed to the crash of 2008

Cyrus · 09-09-2019 10:43am

shenanagans wrote: »

Galway city is not back at boom prices either. I imagine Dublin would be possibly the place boom prices may be near.... Given the population and demand.

You'll find the odd exception but across the board it's not true to claim boom prices are back.

only to a point, once you move up past 800k houses are still way off what they were. there are houses that sold for 30-40m in the boom that wont shift at 8-10m now

q85dw7osi4lebg · 09-09-2019 10:46am

I love how people will wait it out paying 1000+ a month in rent in the hopes of getting a few grand off a house in a year or two (if they have a job still and / or can even get a mortgage)

kippy · 09-09-2019 10:54am

Rex Disgusting Tariff wrote: »

I love how people will wait it out paying 1000+ a month in rent in the hopes of getting a few grand off a house in a year or two (if they have a job still and / or can even get a mortgage)

There's no real black and white though when it comes to peoples circumstances.

You'll find there are tonnes of variables that come into play when people start making these kinds of decisions - some of these apply to one person but not the other.
To paint all people waiting to buy a house with the same brush (paying 1000K a month in rent and/or with a non-stable job and no prospects of a mortgage in a recession is just foolish.

Each to their own.

smurgen · 09-09-2019 10:59am

Cyrus wrote: »

you are making buying a 350k house sound like warren buffet hoovering up plcs in a downturn :pac:

I'm the one saying it'll be done and that i will be doing it.you're the one making out it'll be impossible.

Cyrus · 09-09-2019 11:03am

smurgen wrote: »

I'm the one saying it'll be done and that i will be doing it.you're the one making out it'll be impossible.

what did i say was impossible?

at the end of the day if you are buying a second hand house it will be very hard for you to point to the saving achieved as there dozens of factors even between two houses beside each other that makes one more or less desirable than the other. if its a new build you have a better shot, but i dont see new build prices dropping at that price range, and if the market wont bear those prices the builders will stop again as there is no margin in it.

i dont think you are as clever as you think you are and the most likely outcome is that you will pay in or around what you would have paid right now with another 2 or 3 years rent gone.

The end of the market you are in isnt going to see massive drops in urban centres.

smurgen · 09-09-2019 11:03am

Cyrus wrote: »

only to a point, once you move up past 800k houses are still way off what they were. there are houses that sold for 30-40m in the boom that wont shift at 8-10m now

If you're so confident why not put your money or someone
else's where your mouth is and buy up a few houses? Surely if houses aren't anywhere near the top a fella in the knowpike you're self could make a nice, risk adjusted return?

riddles · 09-09-2019 11:08am

Rex Disgusting Tariff wrote: »

I love how people will wait it out paying 1000+ a month in rent in the hopes of getting a few grand off a house in a year or two (if they have a job still and / or can even get a mortgage)

its the same logic applied to buying a car for 30K because road tax is 100€ cheaper on the new one.

Cyrus · 09-09-2019 11:08am

smurgen wrote: »

If you're so confident why not put your money or someone
else's where your mouth is and buy up a few houses? Surely if houses aren't anywhere near the top a fella in the knowpike you're self could make a nice, risk adjusted return?

i already have plenty of exposure to the irish property market in my own house, my investments are in other asset classes.

again, i appreciate you are trying to be smart, but its not working. where did i say houses arent anywhere near the top? I said certain types of houses are way off boom prices, which is a fact, there is a larger market that what you are looking at.

what i said earlier, is that we have started to hit the affordability limits due to the CB restrictions. House prices should track inflation, or deflation in earning capacity.

beauf · 09-09-2019 11:30am

fliball123 wrote: »

Prices are still a long way away from the peak of 2007 you only have to look at historical trends for that.

That is true in most areas. In my own area, its pretty much back at peak. But its hard to compare as new build are to a higher standard, energy rating, and as soon as they came on stream, it dropped the 2nd hand houses back a bit. But not a lot in, if you consider you need to put 50~100k into these older houses. New houses having a lot less garden, and less parking. Higher end properties 1M+ areally no where near their boom prices. Some of these were ludicrous prices, though. We had some priced around 2m which were never worth that. If you had 1M-2m there are still bargains to have if you wanted to live in it.

A year ago no stock. Now a lot more property for sale. All of it slow to move. Some of the larger houses 700k+ on the market for a year or so. Cheaper property <500 moving much faster. I think most of the new build are sold out. But it took a few months, rather than instantly as it was during the tiger.

It interesting to watch, its like a slow motion replay of previous cycles. This is about the 4th cycle I've experienced.

smurgen · 09-09-2019 11:31am

Cyrus wrote: »

i already have plenty of exposure to the irish property market in my own house, my investments are in other asset classes.

again, i appreciate you are trying to be smart, but its not working. where did i say houses arent anywhere near the top? I said certain types of houses are way off boom prices, which is a fact, there is a larger market that what you are looking at.

what i said earlier, is that we have started to hit the affordability limits due to the CB restrictions. House prices should track inflation, or deflation in earning capacity.

But your point is irrelevant to my situation. It's like telling me Ferraris are alot cheaper than they were while I'm in the market for a bog standard Toyota.

Property Market 2019

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