Property Market 2019

JJJackal · 08-09-2019 7:56pm

smurgen wrote: »

If credit dries up to the extent that you are suggesting then i see falls larger than 15% happening.

In which case unless your a cash buyer you may not be able to buy your 350k -50+k

lawred2 · 08-09-2019 7:57pm

smurgen wrote: »

If credit dries up to the extent that you are suggesting then i see falls larger than 15% happening.

Aye it becomes a vicious circle. Shur we've been there in recent living memory.

Padre_Pio · 08-09-2019 8:01pm

beauf wrote: »

Banks stop lending.

JJJackal wrote: »

Dramatic fall in house prices will probably be due to increased supply and reduced demand.

Reduced demand will be driven, probably by job losses.

Job losses would suggest a recession which will lead to increased taxes and so on and cuts in public sector wages and job instability. If you are effected by any of these you may not be able to get the same size mortgage or any mortgage

It's been shown earlier in this thread that people were still getting mortgages in the depths of the recession.
The terms were far more stringent, but in fairness the terms before the recession were bollocks.

If you lost your job, then you can thank your lucky stars you didn't buy a house, but I highly doubt we're going to find ourselves in a 2009 scenario.

If a recession hits, you'll still be able to get a mortgage, provided you can pay for it.

beauf · 08-09-2019 8:03pm

Always great bargains when no one has money or credit to buy.

JJJackal · 08-09-2019 8:05pm

Padre_Pio wrote: »

It's been shown earlier in this thread that people were still getting mortgages in the depths of the recession.
The terms were far more stringent, but in fairness the terms before the recession were bollocks.

If you lost your job, then you can thank your lucky stars you didn't buy a house, but I highly doubt we're going to find ourselves in a 2009 scenario.

If a recession hits, you'll still be able to get a mortgage, provided you can pay for it.

Of course you will. The number of people who will be able to get one will decrease. This is what we say in 2009 -2012

beauf · 08-09-2019 8:07pm

Padre_Pio wrote: »

It's been shown earlier in this thread that people were still getting mortgages in the depths of the recession.
The terms were far more stringent, but in fairness the terms before the recession were bollocks.

If you lost your job, then you can thank your lucky stars you didn't buy a house, but I highly doubt we're going to find ourselves in a 2009 scenario.

If a recession hits, you'll still be able to get a mortgage, provided you can pay for it.

We're just repeating the same stories again at this point in this thread. With a certain amount of wishful thinking by some.

Padre_Pio · 08-09-2019 8:08pm

beauf wrote: »

Always great bargains when no one has money or credit to buy.

Hopefully we should see an increase in housing stock if people on the fence about selling start to see prices decline. They'll want to sell ASAP.

Better than sitting on a property waiting for prices to bottom and rebound.

JJJackal · 08-09-2019 8:11pm

beauf wrote: »

Always great bargains when no one has money or credit to buy.

And the reason they are bargains is now one has money to buy so no demand

Padre_Pio · 08-09-2019 8:23pm

JJJackal wrote: »

And the reason they are bargains is now one has money to buy so no demand

There's always people with money. People who have savings, people not in a chain, people with recession proof jobs.

JJJackal · 08-09-2019 8:27pm

Padre_Pio wrote: »

There's always people with money. People who have savings, people not in a chain, people with recession proof jobs.

This is a circular argument

Some people have cash - recession proof purchasing

Most regular people take a mortgage - economic growth more people have more better paid jobs so more people can buy houses stimulating demand and prices

recession less people have less better paid jobs so less people can buy houses reducing demand and prices

The_Conductor · 08-09-2019 8:28pm

beauf wrote: »

A large of % of the cost is tax.

A large portion of the % cost of new property elsewhere (such as the aforementioned Paris) is tax too. For example buying a new apartment in Paris might attract the following:

8% stamp duties
registration fee of 5.8%
Notary's fees of approximately 1% of the cost of the property
2% in site transfer fees
+VAT, at the rate of 20% on the purchase price

After all of that- you pay a flatrate annual local property tax (Taxe Foncière) of 0.3% of the assessed value of the property per annum (unless you live in a property valued in excess of 1.3m Euro- in which case you also pay a wealth tax).

For good measure- you pay ownership tax on property owned *anywhere*- so the French have been flogging property in Spain and Portugal for the past few years- before Brexit ever entered anyone's lexicon- as they had to pay ownership tax on foreign holiday homes- in France- along with local property taxes where the properties were actually located.

We may have a high tax take from new apartments here- I reckon its roughly 30%- but if you compare it with the system in places like France- we're actually nowhere near the top of the league tables. Our tax take- while pricey- is not the determinent of our stupidly high construction costs here- our extortionate pay rates for any construction trades- are the biggest culprit, closely followed by stupid site valuations that really should be clawed back in tax- but aren't.

Its very easy to point the finger at the government and suggest that they are to blame for taxing new homes- however, the fact of the matter is- we are up there as among the most generous payers for all construction trades in the EU?

We are our own worse enemies- yes, we tax transactions- not remarkably in comparison to other countries- but notably nonetheless.

Sarn · 08-09-2019 8:31pm

The other thing to take into account if there are large drops is that people become reluctant to sell. You wait 18 months for prices to drop but then have to wait another 18 months before you find something. Last time around the quality of stock wasn’t great. You might get lucky and find something you want, but you might also need to pay another few years rent before you get something you’re happy with.

Roberto_gas · 08-09-2019 8:37pm

Roberto_gas wrote: »

Was waiting...will wait....keep accumulating cash meanwhile..

04-02-2019, 22:07 - date i posted this !!

Tick tock tick tock tick tock...its working lads !!

Cuddlesworth · 08-09-2019 9:01pm

Padre_Pio wrote: »

You don't need a 50k drop, even a 15k drop (20k + over the life of a mortgage) should be enough reason to give buyers pause.

There are many benefits to renting. The poster above who mentioned the cooker and boiler replacement is just one.

There are many benefits to renting in a normal market, but it's damm hard to justify when rents are so high across the country.

smurgen · 08-09-2019 9:21pm

JJJackal wrote: »

Dramatic fall in house prices will probably be due to increased supply and reduced demand.

Reduced demand will be driven, probably by job losses.

Job losses would suggest a recession which will lead to increased taxes and so on and cuts in public sector wages and job instability. If you are effected by any of these you may not be able to get the same size mortgage or any mortgage

And if you're not you'll be in an advantageous place. Add to the fact that rents will fall we could see alot of landlords selling up flooding the market more. Immigration will increase also,driving prices and rents down further.those of us with alot of cash and access to credit will be able to get better value for our money.

99problems1 · 08-09-2019 9:24pm

Zenify wrote: »

Denial?

I would put it more like the below:

We are in that first drop period, prices will rise again yet! Is it a bubble? Maybe. I'm late 20's and I'm on really good money. People I know are buying 2018 BMWs and Mercedes and they're the same age as me.

It does all feel too good to last. I could have a mortgage, multiple holidays a year, very nice car, fancy clothes if I wanted. For someone under 30 that's a high standard of living. And I'm only average in terms of employability.

smurgen · 08-09-2019 9:24pm

beauf wrote: »

Always great bargains when no one has money or credit to buy.

No basis at all for this comment.

smurgen · 08-09-2019 9:28pm

99problems1 wrote: »

I would put it more like the below:

We are in that first drop period, prices will rise again yet! Is it a bubble? Maybe. I'm late 20's and I'm on really good money. People I know are buying 2018 BMWs and Mercedes and they're the same age as me.

It does all feel too good to last. I could have a mortgage, multiple holidays a year, very nice car, fancy clothes if I wanted. For someone under 30 that's a high standard of living. And I'm only average in terms of employability.

The key is to keep spending in line during the boom and not to leverage up. The amount of people who went pcp and slurged in my own social circles was an eye opener.

ZX7R · 08-09-2019 9:30pm

smurgen wrote: »

And if you're not you'll be in an advantageous place. Add to the fact that rents will fall we could see alot of landlords selling up flooding the market more. Immigration will increase also,driving prices and rents down further.those of us with alot of cash and access to credit will be able to get better value for our money.

Price's in the rental market never really dropped in the last resssion they raised, and won't in the next, social welfare payment's will increase to help people keep renting

Cyrus · 08-09-2019 9:40pm

smurgen wrote: »

And if you're not you'll be in an advantageous place. Add to the fact that rents will fall we could see alot of landlords selling up flooding the market more. Immigration will increase also,driving prices and rents down further.those of us with alot of cash and access to credit will be able to get better value for our money.

Good luck calling the market , hopefully you don't reach the point where the desire / requirement to own your own home means you can't keep waiting for this massive market event you are so sure will come .

And if it does come I hope your employment and employability isn't impacted and that the access to credit you believe will be there is there and that interest rates aren't at levels that negate the purchase price savings you hope to make.

99problems1 · 08-09-2019 9:47pm

Cyrus wrote: »

Good luck calling the market , hopefully you don't reach the point where the desire / requirement to own your own home means you can't keep waiting for this massive market event you are so sure will come .

And if it does come I hope your employment and employability isn't impacted and that the access to credit you believe will be there is there and that interest rates aren't at levels that negate the purchase price savings you hope to make.

A recession will come, it's a matter of when. There's lots of murmurs about it globally. We could well talk ourselves into recession. Lots of people have bought in the last 10 years.

Right now, you're taking a massive risk buying now in my opinion.

awec · 08-09-2019 9:48pm

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Why would you not be able to get mortgage approval next year if you can get it this year?

Do you understand what causes house prices to fall in the first place?

awec · 08-09-2019 9:51pm

99problems1 wrote: »

A recession will come, it's a matter of when. There's lots of murmurs about it globally. We could well talk ourselves into recession. Lots of people have bought in the last 10 years.

Right now, you're taking a massive risk buying now in my opinion.

Even if there was a recession tomorrow, nobody has any idea whatsoever what it will do to house prices. Prices could come down 1% and it'd still be a recession.People throw the r word around, and think it's like a big bomb waiting to explode. OMG RECESSION, can't wait to buy my 4 bed gaff in Clontarf for 200k!

The likes of 07/08/09 will not happen again, that was a one off. If anything like that happened any time soon, then worrying about the price of a house, or worrying about getting a mortgage is a bit like worrying if it's going to rain on Sunday when there's a tornado forecast for Saturday. Total nonsense.

House prices, with absolute certainty, will come down eventually. Will they come down 1% or 10%? Will they keep going down or go straight back up again? Absolutely nobody knows. The complication with this problem is that there are so many variables at play, the actual price of the house being just one. Employment, interest rates, bank liquidity, developer liquidity, rent prices, family situations, your age, all play a huge part in the overall picture.

But some people want to dumb it down to "well prices now are a wee bit lower than this time last year, so obviously if you had just waited you'd have got a far better deal". It doesn't work like that.

JJJackal · 08-09-2019 9:57pm

smurgen wrote: »

And if you're not you'll be in an advantageous place. Add to the fact that rents will fall we could see alot of landlords selling up flooding the market more. Immigration will increase also,driving prices and rents down further.those of us with alot of cash and access to credit will be able to get better value for our money.

You are correct. If you have money and access to credit. Typically in a recession both money (unless ur storing it under the bed) and credit are not readily available. Ireland ensured that no savings were effected (shares crashed obviously) and there was limited access to credit.

If you have money under the bed your sorted!

awec · 08-09-2019 10:03pm

JJJackal wrote: »

You are correct. If you have money and access to credit. Typically in a recession both money (unless ur storing it under the bed) and credit are not readily available. Ireland ensured that no savings were effected (shares crashed obviously) and there was limited access to credit.

If you have money under the bed your sorted!

There is no "typically" about it. It's just how it works.

The reason prices are cheap during recession are:

1. People cannot afford to buy any more, because they've just lost their job or had their salary cut
2. Bank's don't have the same amount money to lend any more. The bar gets raised, and many people suddenly find themselves unable to get a mortgage, when they had no problem getting offered one before.
3. People are too scared to buy, thinking that prices will keep going down and if they just wait 6 more months...
4. People are too scared to sell, wanting to wait for higher prices and if they just wait 6 more months...
5. Nobody in negative equity can sell

The whole reason prices drop is it becomes much, much harder to buy a house. Demand dries up.

99problems1 · 08-09-2019 10:06pm

awec wrote: »

People throw the r word around, and think it's like a big bomb waiting to explode. OMG RECESSION, can't wait to buy my 4 bed gaff in Clontarf for 200k!

Why do people always do this?

We're in a period of rapid expansion. Europes fasting growing economy for a number of years now. It is not sustainable. You can't expand to inifinity.

Add to this the insane housing shortage and there you have the reason for the prices going up. It's just not possible to sustain it.

Anyone who bought within the last 18 months will be worried if they are hearing talk of a global economic slowdown.

I'm happy to rent. The risk of waiting is less than the risk of buying.

beauf · 08-09-2019 10:23pm

This thread has become like the last 40yrs never happened none of boom and bust, none of it.

smurgen · 08-09-2019 10:50pm

ZX7R wrote: »

Price's in the rental market never really dropped in the last resssion they raised, and won't in the next, social welfare payment's will increase to help people keep renting

Are you joking me? I remember rent was dirt cheap in cork city and suburbs.serious revisionism in this thread.

bilbot79 · 08-09-2019 10:57pm

Yes there are lots of variables, demand and supply impacts etc. What it really boils down to is this... Can people afford to enter the market, be they ftbs, investors or whatever? Once they can't, a little while later....pop.

smurgen · 08-09-2019 11:07pm

bilbot79 wrote: »

Yes there are lots of variables, demand and supply impacts etc. What it really boils down to is this... Can people afford to enter the market, be they ftbs, investors or whatever? Once they can't, a little while later....pop.

It's also down to the fact that we don't want to enter the market now. There are those of us who just consider house prices not good value for money right now.we can buy but don't want to.

Property Market 2019

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