Property Market 2019

JJJackal · 08-09-2019 4:58pm

smurgen wrote: »

I wont be buying for 6 months/ year minimum.market gonna keep falling.lots of new builds coming online in cork too and in the interim the goal is to grow that deposit.saved a good bit renting this apartment too. Cooker and shower packed up in the last few month. Management company were very fast to come in and sort it. I'll certainly miss that aspect of renting.

If brexit doesnt happen the market could rebound. What will you do then?

If there is a really bad brexit perhaps the banks wont want to give you money, tax hikes and potentially job losses. So the cost maybe less but your ability to borrow will be reduced.

Its also worth asking are selling prices decreasing or just stabilizing?

Asking prices are definitely falling

Fan of Netflix · 08-09-2019 5:10pm

What do you mean if Brexit doesn't happen? It's very clear it is happening.

JJJackal · 08-09-2019 5:15pm

Fan of Netflix wrote: »

What do you mean if Brexit doesn't happen? It's very clear it is happening.

The only thing clear about Brexit is what will happen is very unclear.

You currently have PM that doesnt have a majority, with the opposition voting to prevent a new election...

Cuddlesworth · 08-09-2019 5:16pm

Fan of Netflix wrote: »

What do you mean if Brexit doesn't happen? It's very clear it is happening.

Well, something is happening. Just not Brexit.

JJJackal · 08-09-2019 5:18pm

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Well, something is happening. Just not Brexit.

Agreed - perhaps anarchy

beauf · 08-09-2019 5:30pm

Be interesting how long people hold their nerve and buy close to bottom. Last time it took 4yrs to bottom out, and that was a crash.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_property_bubble

Padre_Pio · 08-09-2019 6:03pm

JJJackal wrote: »

You will be paying back the money longer; life assurance will have increased as you will be older, landlord maintaining a house they are going to sell....

If the exact house you wanted to buy 1 year ago is still on sale for 4% less today; it will be in worse condition than it was 1 year ago.

An alternative view is you bought one year ago, decided to rent out a room for a year and have now paid down 1 year of your mortgage, so you are in a house having paid off the value of the % decrease in value - but you are not worried re rent, rise or fall of other houses or anything else

Why longer?

A 30 year mortgage today is likely the same as a 30 year mortgage next year.
Life assurance doesn't increase dramatically year on year.

If you bought a house today it's still going to be in worse condition next year, whereas you may be able to use that to lower the price further if you bought next year.

Most people who buy houses don't immediately rent out rooms and again, it makes no difference overall if you buy today and rent a room vs buy next year and rent a room.

You're always better off pushing out purchases as far as possible if prices are static or falling.

I firmly believe the idea that buying at a higher price now vs a lower price in the future is wrong, unless your rent is much higher than your mortgage plus ancillary house costs (and there's many) or you NEED to buy a house.

JJJackal · 08-09-2019 6:07pm

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Why longer?

A 30 year mortgage today is likely the same as a 30 year mortgage next year.
Life assurance doesn't increase dramatically year on year.

If you bought a house today it's still going to be in worse condition next year, whereas you may be able to use that to lower the price further if you bought next year.

Most people who buy houses don't immediately rent out rooms and again, it makes no difference overall if you buy today and rent a room vs buy next year and rent a room.

You're always better off pushing out purchases as far as possible.

I firmly believe the idea that buying at a higher price now vs a lower price in the future is wrong, unless your rent is much higher than your mortgage plus ancillary house costs (and there's many) or you NEED to buy a house.

Why longer? 2019 + 30 = 2049; 2020 + 30 = 2050
The cost of life assurance increases as you get older
If you own a house you live in, you typically look after it eg you will fix a leak or plug a hole in a window
The older you are the less likely you are to rent out a room as you have others living with you eg children

Thespoofer · 08-09-2019 6:13pm

Just to ask as I can't remember but during the last crash did rent prices drop along with asking prices?
To me it makes sense that rents have to drop if prices significantly fall.

Interesting times ahead.

smurgen · 08-09-2019 6:23pm

JJJackal wrote: »

Why longer? 2019 + 30 = 2049; 2020 + 30 = 2050
The cost of life assurance increases as you get older
If you own a house you live in, you typically look after it eg you will fix a leak or plug a hole in a window
The older you are the less likely you are to rent out a room as you have others living with you eg children

The celtic tiger economics seem to be strong in here.the life assurance increase over the space of a year or two is almost negligible yet ye'll ignore the fact that a 50k drop in a houses price will mean a massive drop in the morgage needed and monthly repayments also.

smurgen · 08-09-2019 6:27pm

JJJackal wrote: »

If brexit doesnt happen the market could rebound. What will you do then?

If there is a really bad brexit perhaps the banks wont want to give you money, tax hikes and potentially job losses. So the cost maybe less but your ability to borrow will be reduced.

Its also worth asking are selling prices decreasing or just stabilizing?

Asking prices are definitely falling

It's not just Brexit.there's lots of reasons. People are deluded if they think house prices are going to rebound.Thr global economy itself is about to enter correction phase let alone any country specific factors.but sure supply hasn't increased was the mantra of the market bulls in here so I'm sure houses prices won't collapse

JJJackal · 08-09-2019 6:35pm

smurgen wrote: »

The celtic tiger economics seem to be strong in here.the life assurance increase over the space of a year or two is almost negligible yet ye'll ignore the fact that a 50k drop in a houses price will mean a massive drop in the morgage needed and monthly repayments also.

We are not talking about 50k drops. The original discussion revolved around a 3-4% drop on a 350 to 400k house. A 14k drop was quoted. Obviously a 50 k or 10-15% drop per year should discourage buying. A smaller drop for a person who is already paying 14k a year in rent is different

JJJackal · 08-09-2019 6:37pm

smurgen wrote: »

It's not just Brexit.there's lots of reasons. People are deluded if they think house prices are going to rebound.Thr global economy itself is about to enter correction phase let alone any country specific factors.but sure supply hasn't increased was the mantra of the market bulls in here so I'm sure houses prices won't collapse

No hard Brexit will have a significant impact on the world economy...

skippy123! · 08-09-2019 6:39pm

As long as you don't sell the property when the prices go down - you are fine. In the end of the day - if someone needs a home (their own home) they will go and buy it. Someone who really doesn't need one (wants to pay someones else mortgage) is free to do so.

JJJackal · 08-09-2019 6:39pm

skippy123! wrote: »

As long as you don't sell the property when the prices go down - you are fine. In the end of the day - if someone needs a home (their own home) they will go and buy it. Someone who really doesn't need one (wants to pay someones else mortgage) is free to do so.

Agreed

smurgen · 08-09-2019 6:58pm

JJJackal wrote: »

We are not talking about 50k drops. The original discussion revolved around a 3-4% drop on a 350 to 400k house. A 14k drop was quoted. Obviously a 50 k or 10-15% drop per year should discourage buying. A smaller drop for a person who is already paying 14k a year in rent is different

I'm predicting a 50k drop on a house priced 350k in the cork area within the next 18 months.so around the 14/15% region.

Padre_Pio · 08-09-2019 6:58pm

Thespoofer wrote: »

Just to ask as I can't remember but during the last crash did rent prices drop along with asking prices?
To me it makes sense that rents have to drop if prices significantly fall.

Interesting times ahead.

They did, but there were massive job losses and emigration and a surplus of houses.

What we have now is a lack of housing, immigration, a huge movement from rural to urban areas as jobs are rarely created outside cities, small landlords leaving the industry en masse, and vulture funds buying property for it's investment potential, not it's rental potential.

Padre_Pio · 08-09-2019 7:00pm

smurgen wrote: »

The celtic tiger economics seem to be strong in here.the life assurance increase over the space of a year or two is almost negligible yet ye'll ignore the fact that a 50k drop in a houses price will mean a massive drop in the morgage needed and monthly repayments also.

You don't need a 50k drop, even a 15k drop (20k + over the life of a mortgage) should be enough reason to give buyers pause.

There are many benefits to renting. The poster above who mentioned the cooker and boiler replacement is just one.

smurgen · 08-09-2019 7:01pm

skippy123! wrote: »

As long as you don't sell the property when the prices go down - you are fine. In the end of the day - if someone needs a home (their own home) they will go and buy it. Someone who really doesn't need one (wants to pay someones else mortgage) is free to do so.

I love the negativity of the optics.anyone renting is a mug.sour grapes!

Cyrus · 08-09-2019 7:07pm

smurgen wrote: »

I'm predicting a 50k drop on a house priced 350k in the cork area within the next 18 months.so around the 14/15% region.

Forgive me I’m not familiar with the cork market

What does 350k get you today s/h and new build ? And what kind of area

beauf · 08-09-2019 7:14pm

fliball123 wrote: »

It didnt the thing people forget is that if we crash again even if there are huge price drops like the last crash , credit dries up so only the cash buyers and rich get the deals

Shh

Ssshh.... you're just being negative...

lawred2 · 08-09-2019 7:22pm

fliball123 wrote: »

It didnt the thing people forget is that if we crash again even if there are huge price drops like the last crash , credit dries up so only the cash buyers and rich get the deals

It's exactly for this reason that wealth inequality has even further ballooned over the last ten years... There were a lot of prime assets hoovered up at rock bottom prices ten years ago...

It wasn't the lad cribbing about house prices that was on hand to capitalize either. They were instantly frozen out of the credit market and left to twiddle their thumbs while the usual suspects enriched themselves.

JJJackal · 08-09-2019 7:27pm

smurgen wrote: »

I'm predicting a 50k drop on a house priced 350k in the cork area within the next 18 months.so around the 14/15% region.

If you believe this will happen you would be an absolute fool to buy now.

I don't think a house sold for 350k today will be sold for 300k in 18 months however; but I am not looking to buy or sell a house at present

Padre_Pio · 08-09-2019 7:42pm

JJJackal wrote: »

If you believe this will happen you would be an absolute fool to buy now.

I don't think a house sold for 350k today will be sold for 300k in 18 months however; but I am not looking to buy or sell a house at present

I could see it.

Nice, well priced houses will always sell quick, but there's plenty of fixer uppers in Cork that a dreamers and could easily stand to lose 50k to make them worth tackling.

JJJackal · 08-09-2019 7:46pm

Padre_Pio wrote: »

I could see it.

Nice, well priced houses will always sell quick, but there's plenty of fixer uppers in Cork that a dreamers and could easily stand to lose 50k to make them worth tackling.

The point I am making is a house that sold for 350k wont sell for 300k in 18 months.

I agree that some asking prices will fall; but if you offered 300k today you could potentially buy the 350k house

lawred2 · 08-09-2019 7:48pm

JJJackal wrote: »

If you believe this will happen you would be an absolute fool to buy now.

I don't think a house sold for 350k today will be sold for 300k in 18 months however; but I am not looking to buy or sell a house at present

They would only be a fool if the only variable changing was the house price.. but if house prices fall like that then it's highly unlikely that the current lending regime would apply.. might find yourself unable to get mortgage approval. Then the price of the house is not relevant to you any longer.

Padre_Pio · 08-09-2019 7:49pm

lawred2 wrote: »

They would only be a fool if the only variable changing was the house price.. but if house prices fall like that then it's highly unlikely that the current lending regime would apply.. might find yourself unable to get mortgage approval. Then the price of the house is not relevant to you any longer.

Why would you not be able to get mortgage approval next year if you can get it this year?

smurgen · 08-09-2019 7:54pm

lawred2 wrote: »

They would only be a fool if the only variable changing was the house price.. but if house prices fall like that then it's highly unlikely that the current lending regime would apply.. might find yourself unable to get mortgage approval. Then the price of the house is not relevant to you any longer.

If credit dries up to the extent that you are suggesting then i see falls larger than 15% happening.

beauf · 08-09-2019 7:54pm

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Why would you not be able to get mortgage approval next year if you can get it this year?

Banks stop lending.

JJJackal · 08-09-2019 7:55pm

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Why would you not be able to get mortgage approval next year if you can get it this year?

Dramatic fall in house prices will probably be due to increased supply and reduced demand.

Reduced demand will be driven, probably by job losses.

Job losses would suggest a recession which will lead to increased taxes and so on and cuts in public sector wages and job instability. If you are effected by any of these you may not be able to get the same size mortgage or any mortgage

Property Market 2019

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