Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Rain Ascending · 08-09-2019 01:17AM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Not new news as Boris said it back in July.
Barnier commented back in May

Not even an issue unless the UK gets a extension longer than a few moths.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/brexit/the-eu/pm-says-uk-will-not-nominate-an-eu-commissioner-how-might-the-eu-respond/

Article 246.

And it's totally moot as the commissioner isn't a UK rep. So unlikely to stop the EU working as normal.
Article 17(7) of the Treaty on European Union

Thanks for debunking this idea that both the Sunday Express and Newsnight (Friday) have floated.

A few observations:

The No 10 office will be desperate to show that Johnson can take the initiative on some front next week. Not least because Johnson is under pressure to remove Cummings, who is the lead advisor.
From the the various ideas, like this one, that are doing the rounds, I get the sense that that team is not very high-powered. Nikki Da Costa is a known expert in parliamentary procedure and the legal success of the proroguement of Parliament using the Queen's Speech is testament to that expertise. But as for the rest? I've heard it said that quite a few from the Vote Leave campaign are there. This makes them a strong campaigning team -- with Cummings a master of messaging -- but I guess a weak team for Westminster politics (see the disastrous withdrawal of the whip from 21 Tories), EU politics or (critically) legal issues.
Therefore, take a lot of the ideas that are floated by "No 10" over the next few days and weeks with a large pinch of salt. In many cases they won't stand up to scrutiny, but "only" serve to keep hard core supporters convinced of the Johnson's determination.

On this assessment, Johnson's regime will either grind into paralysis or continue to make stupid mistakes ... unless Johnson sacks Cummings.

Strazdas · 08-09-2019 01:24AM

Westernyelp wrote: »

This looks dangerously like a serious crash and burn for the UK. it is remarkable to see them throw themselves under the bus like this.
Once the schadenfreude wears off it is quite disturbing to see the political class of a country collectively lose their minds and push their constituents in to this madness.

It's fascinating to see a supposedly centre right party reinvent itself as a hard right / far right one and even expel dozens of MPs who don't agree with the radical shift.

I'm struggling to think of any other example in modern European history.

08-09-2019 03:03AM

Personally, I reckon this is all just a show before either the current WA or more likely a NI-only WA is voted for my parliament.

Cummings et al. know that a crash out won't last
long and that's his dream of leaving the EU gone. Create utter political chaos so going back to the backstop to save the country from madness will be welcomed.

Tell me how · 08-09-2019 04:18AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Personally, I reckon this is all just a show before either the current WA or more likely a NI-only WA is voted for my parliament.

Cummings et al. know that a crash out won't last
long and that's his dream of leaving the EU gone. Create utter political chaos so going back to the backstop to save the country from madness will be welcomed.

Not so sure about this.

If that had been the plan, they wouldn't have jettisoned party members as they did. It was Johnson's (under Cummings direction) decision to remove whips from rebel MP's. He could have taken their protest under consideration but kept them on board if he ultimately was going to do an about turn as part of a strategy.

08-09-2019 04:43AM

Tell me how wrote: »

Not so sure about this.

If that had been the plan, they wouldn't have jettisoned party members as they did. It was Johnson's (under Cummings direction) decision to remove whips from rebel MP's. He could have taken their protest under consideration but kept them on board if he ultimately was going to do an about turn as part of a strategy.

I don't think it was plan A all along. And I'm not trying to convince anyone I'm right. I just think this was the plan B if he didn't win those votes.

Zubeneschamali · 08-09-2019 07:32AM

briany wrote: »

At this point, I think the cadre of those in the Cons who want no-deal would be happy with no-deal in perpetuity

They couldn't even keep No Deal going til Christmas, never mind in perpetuity.

Zubeneschamali · 08-09-2019 07:47AM

careless sherpa wrote: »

Parliament needs to vote for the withdrawal agreement to prevent it then.

The WA is a terrible deal for the UK. They can secure a far, far better deal - better than France or Germany gets - by simply revoking A50.

Roger_007 · 08-09-2019 07:53AM

I think that the No 1 objective of Johnson/Cummings is to get to a GE where they reckon that they will win a majority.
They look at the Trump example and can see that it doesn't matter what trouble they get into or what chaos they cause or what the mainstream media say, the British public, (or enough of them anyway), will respond in a jingoistic way to a sort of 'Make Britain Great Again' type of campaign. All the shenanigans that are going on at the moment are irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.
The Tories could win a handsome majority with as little as 40% of the vote. The Brexit party will wither on the vine and pose no threat now that the Tories have stolen their clothes. Labour are hamstrung by Corbyn. As long as he is the leader Labour will never win an election.
The Johnson/Cummings project is still well on course.

cryptocurrency · 08-09-2019 07:53AM

Daily Mail Article I know but it seems some are pointing out now that the UK could stay to destroy the EU from within.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7439647/Boris-Johnson-threatens-sabotage-EUs-structures-grip-power.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ico=taboola_feed

Boris is like Luke in Starwars

cryptocurrency · 08-09-2019 08:04AM

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 35% (-)
LAB: 21% (-4)
LDEM: 19% (+3)
BREX: 12% (+1)

via
@YouGov
, 05 - 06 Sep

um7y1h83ge06nx · 08-09-2019 08:14AM

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Daily Mail Article I know but it seems some are pointing out now that the UK could stay to destroy the EU from within.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7439647/Boris-Johnson-threatens-sabotage-EUs-structures-grip-power.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ico=taboola_feed

Boris is like Luke in Starwars

You wonder where will it all end. Imagine if Johnson had the same sort of military power that Hitler had in 1939.

It's getting to the stage that the EU should give them what they want, give them their blessed no deal and when Britain inevitable don't pay their outstanding debts then shut down access in and out of the UK, both airspace and ports until they crack. An economic blockade.

Harry Palmr · 08-09-2019 08:15AM

At what level does the Liberal Democrats percentage start to overcome FPTP bias? Could they form a coalition with Labour that is quite balanced ?

cryptocurrency · 08-09-2019 08:16AM

Derek Eager Registrar wrote: »

You wonder where will it all end. Imagine if Johnson had the same sort of military power that Hitler had in 1939.

It's getting to the stage that the EU should give them what they want, give them their blessed no deal and when Britain inevitable don't pay their outstanding debts then shut down access in and out of the UK, both airspace and ports until they crack. An economic blockade.

UK is light years ahead of the rest of the EU members in both military power and intelligence services.

Comparing Boris to Hitler kinda kills the value of any of your input now as you are coming across as hysterical as Anna Soubry

cryptocurrency · 08-09-2019 08:17AM

Harry Palmr wrote: »

At what level does the Liberal Democrats percentage start to overcome FPTP bias? Could they form a coalition with Labour that is quite balanced ?

Corbyn is not balanced he is a self confessed Marxist.

Lib Dems are very wishy washy

um7y1h83ge06nx · 08-09-2019 08:20AM

cryptocurrency wrote: »

UK is light years ahead of the rest of the EU members in both military power and intelligence services.

Comparing Boris to Hitler kinda kills the value of any of your input now as you are coming across as hysterical as Anna Soubry

In fairness there are differences, Hitler was a military threat to Europe and in turn an economic threat as well, Johnson is proving himself to be just an economic threat.

cryptocurrency · 08-09-2019 08:24AM

Derek Eager Registrar wrote: »

In fairness there are differences, Hitler was a military threat to Europe and in turn an economic threat as well, Johnson is proving himself to be just an economic threat.

The EU is an economic threat to the UK so its best the separate.

EU wants tax harmonisation, federalisation, EU army...the US support of Brexit is not a coincidence. I expect the US and UK to work closer with their regime change plans for Brussels over the coming years.

lawred2 · 08-09-2019 08:29AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Being reported tomorrow that No 10 is going to refuse to appoint new EU commissioner and thus the EU will have no choice but to kick the UK out.

Heard that mooted on Thursday..

I'm fairly sure that they have the consequences wrong

cryptocurrency · 08-09-2019 08:31AM

lawred2 wrote: »

Heard that mooted on Thursday..

I'm fairly sure that they have the consequences wrong

EU will come up with something that means they don't kick them out. EU hasn't the bottle as they are desperate.

lawred2 · 08-09-2019 08:31AM

listermint wrote: »

Don't listen to twitterports.

That's not possible the EU can't do that.. So I wouldn't bother forwarding anything related to it.

More twitter crap originating from leave origins with little factual grounding.

Wasn't just on Twitter. Was on bbc newsnight on Thursday

lawred2 · 08-09-2019 08:35AM

Derek Eager Registrar wrote: »

You wonder where will it all end. Imagine if Johnson had the same sort of military power that Hitler had in 1939.

It's getting to the stage that the EU should give them what they want, give them their blessed no deal and when Britain inevitable don't pay their outstanding debts then shut down access in and out of the UK, both airspace and ports until they crack. An economic blockade.

Yeah that's how wars start

Working class heroes · 08-09-2019 08:37AM

cryptocurrency wrote: »

EU will come up with something that means they don't kick them out. EU hasn't the bottle as they are desperate.

Any. Minute. Now.

um7y1h83ge06nx · 08-09-2019 08:43AM

lawred2 wrote: »

Yeah that's how wars start

It does bring risk but so does appeasement. Damned if you do and damned if you don't.

Also if the EU allow Britain to walk away from their debts it will weaken the EUs position with other trading partners and future trading negotiations.

DOCARCH · 08-09-2019 08:45AM

cryptocurrency wrote: »

EU hasn't the bottle as they are desperate.

Desperate....no. Hoping for an orderly Brexit....yes.

gooch2k9 · 08-09-2019 09:02AM

Found Rudd very confusing on Marr. She is quitting because there is not enough work going on to get a deal, everything is going towards preparing for no deal, but she believes Johnson does want to get a deal.

devnull · 08-09-2019 09:03AM

Raab this morning is priceless on Sky

Don't want to publish Brexit deal proposals in case they get leaked - Raab

The foreign secretary, when asked what concrete proposals for a new Brexit deal have been offered to Brussels, says there are a "whole range of possibilities" which "set out the framework for it".

He adds the government is more cautious than it used to be about revealing those plans so they don't get "leaked and rubbished by the other side".

It's basically saying that somebody might agree with what we are saying so we are not going to tell you as the delicate flowers that we are cannot take any criticism. You don't need to know what we are thinking because we are right and you should trust us. Nice to see them being so open and honest with the public.

Alternatively it could be more spoofing and they have nothing.

GM228 · 08-09-2019 09:08AM

cryptocurrency wrote: »

The EU is an economic threat to the UK so its best the separate.

I'll fix that for you.

Leaving the EU without a deal is an economic threat to the UK

gooch2k9 · 08-09-2019 09:19AM

devnull wrote: »

Raab this morning is priceless on Sky

It's basically saying that somebody might agree with what we are saying so we are not going to tell you as the delicate flowers that we are cannot take any criticism. You don't need to know what we are thinking because we are right and you should trust us. Nice to see them being so open and honest with the public.

Alternatively it could be more spoofing and they have nothing.

Javid is pushing the same line on Marr now. There are loads of alternatives supposedly.

Blatant dishonesty.

P.S. I'm getting a headache listening to this chap. He says they won't accept any form of backstop.

cryptocurrency · 08-09-2019 09:20AM

GM228 wrote: »

I'll fix that for you.

The EU has played hardball with the UK since dealing with May and the only way the UK can pull it back is hard ball and a threat of no deal and it has to be credible.

Still don't think Boris is being hard enough to get this right as his language is still very soft, referring to them as partners etc..

murphaph · 08-09-2019 09:22AM

Strazdas wrote: »

It's fascinating to see a supposedly centre right party reinvent itself as a hard right / far right one and even expel dozens of MPs who don't agree with the radical shift.

I'm struggling to think of any other example in modern European history.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fidesz

listermint · 08-09-2019 09:25AM

cryptocurrency wrote: »

The EU has played hardball with the UK since dealing with May and the only way the UK can pull it back is hard ball and a threat of no deal and it has to be credible.

Still don't think Boris is being hard enough to get this right as his language is still very soft, referring to them as partners etc..

The EU are ok with the UK leaving now. As am I.

Off they trot.

There is no more hard ball to play. Good luck.

Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

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