Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

BluePlanet · 06-09-2019 08:42PM

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Just catching up on a few Brexit twists and turns and this caught my eye:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/06/boris-johnsons-irish-border-plan-stalls-disastrous-eu-brexit-backstop-talks

I thought something might be done to try to answer the lack of democracy point e.g. asking the people of Northern Ireland in a referendum whether they wanted the backstop, as opposed to merely relying on what the DUP said. Which one would assume would pass comfortably.

I wonder did the U.K. or E.U. realise that Stormont only works if the largest Nationalist and Unionist parties can agree. If the section said that Northern Ireland could come out of the backstop if the L.A. approves it coming out, it would only happen in the most unexpected circumstances i.e. S.F. would have to vote for it. However, if it was proposed that it can only continue to apply if Stormont continued to approve it, then it would most likely come to a sudden and abrupt halt, unless DUP voters switched to UUP/Alliance.

That's assuming that deep down Brexiteers and the Brexit party actually want Brexit. Farage has made an entire career, and a lucrative one at that, despite his protestations of poverty, campaigning for Brexit. If Brexit is achieved, then he no longer has anything to rail against.

Particularly if Brexit turns out not to be as beneficial as he has told people it would be!

I think it is entirely reasonable to look at some measure of democratic framework for a NI only backstop.
This also gives the DUP a way out of their position.
Perhaps leaving the Backstop requires a 2 year lead time or something along those lines.
Though anything like that may end up impairing investment in NI and the border areas.

What about the divorce bill though?
It's not only the Backstop that the Tories want to cut.

Zubeneschamali · 06-09-2019 08:43PM

Of course leave could win again, that would be fair enough, off with them.

Just like giving Boris a majority in the election, they would bring the locusts/rain of frogs etc on themselves and I will be stockpiling popcorn as the show will not be over for a long, long time.

Joe_ Public · 06-09-2019 08:44PM

cryptocurrency wrote: »

People who say that are making a presumption remain would win. They are wrong.

I think remain would win but thats not a presumption, just an opinion. People dont have to like the idea of another vote, but they should stop saying there's anything undemocratic about it. There isn't. Its a perfectly logical and democratic option to use to get the UK out of this mess.

Ben Done · 06-09-2019 08:53PM

Just wondering where people would rank the potential outcomes at this stage - No Deal, Deal (perhaps NI only backstop), and no Brexit.

Last week I would have said No Deal 60%, Deal 10%, No Brexit 30% but I'm thinking Deal might now be more likely?

Could the remain alliance hold through the election to make No Brexit likelier?

briany · 06-09-2019 09:00PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I think remain would win but thats not a presumption, just an opinion. People dont have to like the idea of another vote, but they should stop saying there's anything undemocratic about it. There isn't. Its a perfectly logical and democratic option to use to get the UK out of this mess.

If the people of the UK want a no-deal Brexit, they can guarantee that by voting in a majority of MPs who'll be of a mind to deliver it.

Even with an extension, the UK always has the option to simply tell the EU they're leaving (with notice), AFAIK, so even if they get another extension, a GE that returns a no-compromise Brexit parliament would soon see the UK out of that.

And since the projections are for the Conservatives to actually gain seats, I see this being the most likely outcome, unless I'm missing something. Since 'the purge' the Cons would now be running very much on a Brexit-at-all-costs ticket, and would be more likely to be ideologically pure.

Joe_ Public · 06-09-2019 09:12PM

briany wrote: »

If the people of the UK want a no-deal Brexit, they can guarantee that by voting in a majority of MPs who'll be of a mind to deliver it.

Even with an extension, the UK always has the option to simply tell the EU they're leaving (with notice), AFAIK, so even if they get another extension, a GE that returns a no-compromise Brexit parliament would soon see the UK out of that.

And since the projections are for the Conservatives to actually gain seats, I see this being the most likely outcome, unless I'm missing something. Since 'the purge' the Cons would now be running very much on a Brexit-at-all-costs ticket, and would be more likely to be ideologically pure.

Well i wouldnt be so sure about any of that myself. I dont place that much faith in the polls, its far too volatile a situation imo, and all i know for sure is that the conservatives are going to lose 10 seats in Scotland so thats not great for starters. Also, going for a no deal strategy might help in relation to TBP, but is restricting yourself to that narrow subset of the electorate really a winning strategy? Thats likely not even 50% of the voting public.

I also personally dislike the idea of an election being used as a de facto referendum. The issues that need to be teased out for a GE deserve not to be lost in the fog of a one-issue campaign, although that said, i do believe labour - if they play it right - might succeed in playing it as a multi-issue election. All a bit uncertain though.

Bit cynical · 06-09-2019 09:21PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I also personally dislike the idea of an election being used as a de facto referendum. The issues that need to be teased out for a GE deserve not to be lost in the fog of a one-issue campaign, although that said, i do believe labour - if they play it right - might succeed in playing it as a multi-issue election. All a bit uncertain though.

Labour should have the advantage in a GE since they can mop up anyone that isn't in favour of no deal. This would include hard core remainists, those who want Labour's idea of a Brexit deal, those who would accept the WA as it stands and so on.

Johnson's advantage is that there's a certain amount of sense to the idea that you can't negotiate properly unless you have at your disposal the option of walking away.

Irish Praetorian · 06-09-2019 09:27PM

Bit cynical wrote: »

Labour should have the advantage in a GE since they can mop up anyone that isn't in favour of no deal. This would include hard core remainists, those who want Labour's idea of a Brexit deal, those who might would the WA as it stands and so on.

Johnson's advantage is that there's a certain amount of sense to the idea that you can't negotiate properly unless you have at your disposal the option of walking away.

Er that might be the theory but have you looked at the poll numbers recently? The No-Deal Brexit vote is more or less consolidated by the Conservative party and potentially the Brexit party if it comes to an election over the issue. Meanwhile the Remain vote is nearly evenly divided between the Labour party who have spent the past three years building up a reputation for dithering on the issue, the Lib-Dems who have been more coherent but still struggle from the internecine sniping of their fellow Remainers, the Greens who are Green and the various regional Nationalist parties. A 'No-Deal Alliance' of Tories in most of the country and Brexit party in those areas typically considered Labour strongholds like the North, would likely make mincemeat of what is at present a very fractured Remain opposition.

rossie1977 · 06-09-2019 09:33PM

Polls had Tories massively increasing their seats in 2017 hence why May called election thinking she could increase her grip.

Tell me how · 06-09-2019 09:33PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Well i wouldnt be so sure about any of that myself. I dont place that much faith in the polls, its far too volatile a situation imo, and all i know for sure is that the conservatives are going to lose 10 seats in Scotland so thats not great for starters. Also, going for a no deal strategy might help in relation to TBP, but is restricting yourself to that narrow subset of the electorate really a winning strategy? Thats likely not even 50% of the voting public.

I also personally dislike the idea of an election being used as a de facto referendum. The issues that need to be teased out for a GE deserve not to be lost in the fog of a one-issue campaign, although that said, i do believe labour - if they play it right - might succeed in playing it as a multi-issue election. All a bit uncertain though.

The UK needs a referendum because of everything that has gone on in relation to visibility of what leaving the EU looks like in real life.
The UK needs a general election because of the absence of any normal parliamentary discussion in relation to national governance in at least 3 years.
The UK needs a general election because of the disarray which exists in the HoC at the moment.

Each of the above statements I believe is true and I think that there is no question but that a GE will be used to conflate these issues and try to muddy the waters on what is being voted for. End result will be an election that is claimed by the victors as whatever mandate they want irrespective of the reality.
This, I believe will play in to the conservative hands because they, at least, have a coherent message "Deliver Brexit, Stop Corbyn" (ignoring the unite and energise elements of Johnsons recent victory speech).

I am very pessimistic that the non-Tory/non-Brexit Party contenders will be able to unite under a common strong message. I think the Tory/Brexit party will play on this, suggesting a vote for Labour/Lib-Dems/Change/Green etc is a vote for disagreement and confusion in a future government. Completely ignoring the fact that that is what the Tories have given for the last 3 years.

Joe_ Public · 06-09-2019 09:35PM

When it comes to Labour and an election, i have a feeling their opponents and their media pals will repeat the same mistakes by hamming up the supposed "marxist, trotskyist, bennite etc etc extremists who will destroy business and nationalise every single industry ad finitum." Young voters dont understand any of that and it has no effect on them whatsover.

Already, the conservatives look incoherent to me on a lot of what they say. I heard one tory MP on the news this morning referring to Corbyn as the "marxist labour leader who'll keep us in the EU." I just though, he's not much of a Marxist leader if he's determined to keep the UK in the EU, but from being portrayed for last couple of years as a dyed in the wool brexiteer, they've now turned Jezza into a committed remainer. Its all rather amusing if you ask me.

Bit cynical · 06-09-2019 09:44PM

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

Er that might be the theory but have you looked at the poll numbers recently? The No-Deal Brexit vote is more or less consolidated by the Conservative party and potentially the Brexit party if it comes to an election over the issue. Meanwhile the Remain vote is nearly evenly divided between the Labour party who have spent the past three years building up a reputation for dithering on the issue, the Lib-Dems who have been more coherent but still struggle from the internecine sniping of their fellow Remainers, the Greens who are Green and the various regional Nationalist parties. A 'No-Deal Alliance' of Tories in most of the country and Brexit party in those areas typically considered Labour strongholds like the North, would likely make mincemeat of what is at present a very fractured Remain opposition.

Well of course the only opinion poll that really counts is the one on election day!

I think if a GE is held fairly soon Labour can still get away with being the no "no deal" party. If a GE is delayed then the "then what?" question starts becoming important and Labour have to work out what the answer to that question is. And then of course, some people will not agree with it thereby lessening their support base.

Spanish Eyes · 06-09-2019 09:45PM

To me here in ROI it is a bit puzzling to try to understand the power that the Press has across the pond in influencing people.

Seems to me there is the Telegraph, Sun, Express, Mail, all in favour of Leave, and then there is the Guardian that is the counterpoint.

I don't think there would ever be that much influence on public opinion here from the papers.

But maybe that's because we here are cynical and can see through the bullcrap. Dunno.

Kermit.de.frog · 06-09-2019 09:49PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

To me here in ROI it is a bit puzzling to try to understand the power that the Press has across the pond in influencing people.

Seems to me there is the Telegraph, Sun, Express, Mail, all in favour of Leave, and then there is the Guardian that is the counterpoint.

I don't think there would ever be that much influence on public opinion here from the papers.

But maybe that's because we here are cynical and can see through the bullcrap. Dunno.

That's all down to Rupert Murdoch.

Before him their press was like everywhere else - pretty balanced.

Not only did he change the balance completely but he introduced the toxic, dumbed down gutter versions of tabloids that debased society in Britain - the real consequences are only coming through now.

SeaBreezes · 06-09-2019 10:04PM

https://www.quora.com/Why-are-Remainers-so-convinced-that-staying-in-the-European-Union-is-what-is-best-for-the-UK/answer/Barry-McGuinness-1?fbclid=IwAR0QiekV13tPs0_g5igT1hQK3qGvqQQYq4GxXCZzkN1XlUmH03AkMVBxEGQ

Well worth a read on why the UK got here and who's pulling the strings.. if I lived in the UK I would (for my kids sake) be packing up and moving to Ireland/Scotland cause it's only going to get worse with these sociopaths in charge...

Strazdas · 06-09-2019 10:05PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

To me here in ROI it is a bit puzzling to try to understand the power that the Press has across the pond in influencing people.

Seems to me there is the Telegraph, Sun, Express, Mail, all in favour of Leave, and then there is the Guardian that is the counterpoint.

I don't think there would ever be that much influence on public opinion here from the papers.

But maybe that's because we here are cynical and can see through the bullcrap. Dunno.

80% of newspaper sales in the UK are of right wing papers. Those numbers are freakish compared to Ireland and Europe and the same newspapers think nothing about lying to their readership about the EU and pushing a pro-hard right agenda.

Enzokk · 06-09-2019 10:06PM

cryptocurrency wrote: »

People who say that are making a presumption remain would win. They are wrong.

If Leave proponents were as confident as you were they would have been advocating for a second referendum. Seeing as they have not said a word on a second referendum it is safe to assume that they know it is not as simple as you make it. If there was to be second referendum and the Leave vote would be on no-deal and it won then the question would be done and parliament would enact the decision. So I am left to wonder, why are they so scared to ask the public to confirm the Leave vote? Maybe you can have a go at that answer, because Rees-Mogg seemed to have a sound reason why he wants to avoid one.

https://twitter.com/OFOCBrexit/status/1168452333526798338?s=20

I was amazed that Lucy Harris was trying to tell the world that a general election would be a better way to solve Brexit than a second referendum. Somehow a vote where Brexit will be one of many factors to play a role for voters will be more democratic than a simple yes or no for Brexit where it is the only issue. That takes some crazy mental gymnastics to get to that point and it is disingenuous to try and argue this as well.

https://twitter.com/OFOCBrexit/status/1169640443501527040?s=20

murphaph · 06-09-2019 10:22PM

Deciding this issue through a FPTP general election would be rubbish. We know that the BXP could get 12% of the popular vote yet this could equate to zero seats. It's completely unfair. A second referendum is the only fair way to put the matter back to the people. It'll be unfinished business if they don't.

GM228 · 06-09-2019 10:26PM

SeaBreezes wrote: »

https://www.quora.com/Why-are-Remainers-so-convinced-that-staying-in-the-European-Union-is-what-is-best-for-the-UK/answer/Barry-McGuinness-1?fbclid=IwAR0QiekV13tPs0_g5igT1hQK3qGvqQQYq4GxXCZzkN1XlUmH03AkMVBxEGQ

Well worth a read on why the UK got here and who's pulling the strings.. if I lived in the UK I would (for my kids sake) be packing up and moving to Ireland/Scotland cause it's only going to get worse with these sociopaths in charge...

That's a great well reasoned read, whilst there are many parts worth pointing to this section really stands out for me on the myth that the UK will be economically better off outside the EU:-

Even the British Treasury’s own analyses of the effects of doing so are absolutely grim. Whether the outcome of leaving is Norway-style (EEA membership), Canada-style (bilateral agreement), or a no-deal exit (defaulting to WTO rules), there is no economic benefit to the UK:

The Treasury’s analysis shows that the UK would be permanently poorer if it left the EU and adopted any of these models. Productivity and GDP per person would be lower in all these alternative scenarios, as the costs would substantially outweigh any potential benefit of leaving the EU.

It stands out because "permanently" really sinks in the reality that some of the downfalls (and this is a big one) are more than something which is just temporay and can eventually be overcome, it's most definitely not a case of short term pain, long term gain.

Duane Dibbley · 06-09-2019 10:36PM

murphaph wrote: »

Deciding this issue through a FPTP general election would be rubbish. We know that the BXP could get 12% of the popular vote yet this could equate to zero seats. It's completely unfair. A second referendum is the only fair way to put the matter back to the people. It'll be unfinished business if they don't.

What would be the options in the second referendum?

10000maniacs · 06-09-2019 10:40PM

Just watching the Newsnight intro tonight and the deranged guy who ripped Pat Kenny a new one on the Late Late show 12 years ago was out in Scotland roaring at Boris Johnson to go to Brussels and negotiate. Just thought it was funny.

sdanseo · 06-09-2019 10:44PM

10000maniacs wrote: »

Just watching the Newsnight intro tonight and the deranged guy who ripped Pat Kenny a new one on the Late Late show 12 years ago was out in Scotland roaring at Boris Johnson to go to Brussels and negotiate. Just thought it was funny.

You may need to narrow that down

I thought of this fella from the Frontline first

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gu6d0ns-JJU

but maybe you mean this one

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OiIsIE8iT28

awec · 06-09-2019 10:46PM

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

What would be the options in the second referendum?

It would have to be the same options as last time, it's the only fair question at this stage.

10000maniacs · 06-09-2019 10:46PM

Yeah the Frontline guy (I think)

An Ciarraioch · 06-09-2019 10:48PM

SNP set to win all 13 Scottish Tory seats:

https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1170079258699599873

First Up · 06-09-2019 10:50PM

awec wrote:

It would have to be the same options as last time, it's the only fair question at this stage.

That's what caused the mess in the first place.

An Ciarraioch · 06-09-2019 10:52PM

Tory-Brexit pact under discussion:

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/dark-money-investigations/revealed-election-pact-between-johnson-and-farage-edges-closer/

Headshot · 06-09-2019 10:56PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Tory-Brexit pact under discussion:

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/dark-money-investigations/revealed-election-pact-between-johnson-and-farage-edges-closer/

Making a pact with the devil, BJ is desperate it seems.

Just goes to show how the Conservative party has fallen so much that they have to get into the bed with that really really really nasty piece of work Farage

Sardonicat · 06-09-2019 11:04PM

You'd think they'd have learned from May's romp with the DUP to be more discerning when choosing bed fellows.

This is sickening stuff.

sondagefaux · 06-09-2019 11:05PM

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

What would be the options in the second referendum?

Deal or No Deal.

Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

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