Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Strazdas · 06-09-2019 06:39PM

Forty Seven wrote: »

I think we are witnessing something here that transcends Brexit. This is the rise of the proletariat, only they are not rising as Marx predicted. Years of immigration coupled with austerity has the lower rung of the nation becoming more right wing, this was evident with the rise of UKIP and the tories moving away from the center right to counter.

I have thought for some time that we are heading into a global catastrophe akin to the last two wars. History shows there are stages coming into a conflict. Often they start with a financial crisis, check, then polarisation of political views, check, a minority group or country to blame, check both, (immigrants, EU) political stalemate resulting in a strong leader emerging, check (he doesn't have to be strong, just appear it) the disastisfaction of the political classes among the populace, check, nationalism becoming more widespread, check, people in the streets protesting, check.

I surmise we are on about chapter 5 of the coming bestseller on WW3. It is globally unfolding, the US and China in a trade war, the immigration problem in Europe, the re-emergence of Russian muscle flexing. Europe fragmenting. (Like it or not, Brexit has dented the credibility and will have unforseen consequences)

We are witnessing England burgeoning into a far right nation and probably the break up of the union. The gloves are going to come off at some point. I am going to start buying gold again.

I wouldn't disagree with some of your points but I think this is as much down to the UK in particular being a political basket case and going through a massive identity crisis. A dysfunctional political system, a dysfunctional media and throw in the heady rise of English right wing nationalism into the mix. The UK is not at ease with itself in the world and there is obviously huge class divide within the nation.

briany · 06-09-2019 06:41PM

I love how the Brexit party's ultimatum to the Conservatives of 'deliver Brexit or we'll contest the next election' would be ensuring that no form of Brexit would happen for the foreseeable future. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot.

sondagefaux · 06-09-2019 06:43PM

Forty Seven wrote: »

I think we are witnessing something here that transcends Brexit. This is the rise of the proletariat, only they are not rising as Marx predicted. Years of immigration coupled with austerity has the lower rung of the nation becoming more right wing, this was evident with the rise of UKIP and the tories moving away from the center right to counter.

I have thought for some time that we are heading into a global catastrophe akin to the last two wars. History shows there are stages coming into a conflict. Often they start with a financial crisis, check, then polarisation of political views, check, a minority group or country to blame, check both, (immigrants, EU) political stalemate resulting in a strong leader emerging, check (he doesn't have to be strong, just appear it) the disastisfaction of the political classes among the populace, check, nationalism becoming more widespread, check, people in the streets protesting, check.

I surmise we are on about chapter 5 of the coming bestseller on WW3. It is globally unfolding, the US and China in a trade war, the immigration problem in Europe, the re-emergence of Russian muscle flexing. Europe fragmenting. (Like it or not, Brexit has dented the credibility and will have unforseen consequences)

We are witnessing England burgeoning into a far right nation and probably the break up of the union. The gloves are going to come off at some point. I am going to start buying gold again.

Every single study carried out on who voted to Leave the EU shows that the chief predictor of voting Leave was age, not social class.

Older British people are generally in favour of Brexit, and are much more likely to have hard right or far right views than younger people.

There is a link between formal educational attainment (not a proxy for intelligence at all btw) and propensity to vote for Brexit, but not as strong as the link between being older and voting to Leave.

Given that older people are also more likely to die sooner than younger people, I think that you're being a tad pessimistic about the future direction of England.

A Shropshire Lad · 06-09-2019 06:51PM

The right wing media in the UK is incredibly weaponised. I suppose, like all aspects of Brexit, one has to look at who owns these papers and what gain they might see in Brexit

Forty Seven · 06-09-2019 06:55PM

sondagefaux wrote: »

Every single study carried out on who voted to Leave the EU shows that the chief predictor of voting Leave was age, not social class.

Older British people are generally in favour of Brexit, and are much more likely to have hard right or far right views than younger people.

There is a link between formal educational attainment (not a proxy for intelligence at all btw) and propensity to vote for Brexit, but not as strong as the link between being older and voting to Leave.

Given that older people are also more likely to die sooner than younger people, I think that you're being a tad pessimistic about the future direction of England.

At the same rate they die those young become older and it is shown people get more right wing as they age. Everyone is a socialist when they have nothing. The young gravitate further right as they gain more to protect. The idea the young will remain left as the older generation die is not credible. It's an organic movement which would usually balance out.

is_that_so · 06-09-2019 06:56PM

Imreoir2 wrote: »

People think Cummings is a genious, his plan if Labour blocks an election was literally just to call Corbyn chicken. Thats it. You can see that they prepared a lot for this, even paid a graphic disigner to put together stickers for a KFC joke. A five year old could have come up with it.

It reminds me of Freedonia (S06E15) in the West Wing where there is a similar ploy and an altercation with a life-sized chicken! Fine for TV but utterly juvenile.

ancapailldorcha · 06-09-2019 06:57PM

I do find myself wondering what would have happened if Cameron had followed through on his threat to campaign to leave if the EU didn't give him a good enough deal back before the referendum. Johnson would probably have picked the Remain side and might have swung it for them with Gove. Don't get me wrong, I think he genuinely believes the stuff about global Britain, he just cares about himself more.

A part of me is feeling a bit hopeful. Not necessarily about the UK. I am not sure if that can be saved. Moreso about the fact that populists are starting to feel a lot more negative attention.

Johnson's record so far might be the worst in Parliamentary history though I've not researched centuries of it but let's have a look:

He's lost all of his initial three motions.
He has postured about disobeying the law.
He's had to prorgue Parliament for the longest period in 400 years. So much for taking back control.
He is scouring his party of talent to eradicate dissent and sending them off to opposition parties, including people who've never defied the whip like David Gauke and Winston Churchill's grandson, Sir Nicholas Soames.
He's lost the loyalty of his two siblings.
He's managed to all but singularly undo Ruth Davidson's impressive but fragile gains in Scotland that he will desperately need to win in the next election.
Finally, he can't even get the leader of the opposition to agree to an election, something which would have been unfathomable until a few weeks ago.

Come an election he has left himself nothing to run on, such is his desperation to head off the Brexit party. We even saw that dreadful, loathsome tweet about downing street looking to weaponise the transgender debate in the north of the UK to try and win over working class voters. How putrid and squalid is that? He can't run on the economy, the NHS, schools, prisons, roads, etc. All he is left with is hard Brexit or else he'll haemhorrhage votes to the Brexit party. Of course, he'll lose voters at the other end to the Lib Dems but this seems to be the choice he has made.

The one thing he is supposed to excel at is the "Boris bluster". We saw that fall flat today in Morley which is the sort of place he needs to be winning in. The north of England might be Conservative but it votes Labour. Scotland will fall back into the SNP's hands. Wales is unlikely to matter too much. I'd say the same for Northern Ireland but it's unfortunately possible that the DUP is something the British public might have to suffer for a bit longer.

ElectronVolt · 06-09-2019 07:01PM

My questions is what are the consequences for him and his cabinet if they do refuse to obey the law? A lot of the checks and balances in the UK are proving to be nothing but an acceptance of precedent and fair play.

J Mysterio · 06-09-2019 07:04PM

ElectronVolt wrote: »

My questions is what are the consequences for him and his cabinet if they do refuse to obey the law? A lot of the checks and balances in the UK are proving to be nothing but an acceptance of precedent and fair play.

Hopefully jail for breaking the law.

ElectronVolt · 06-09-2019 07:12PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Hopefully jail for breaking the law.

It seems that wouldn't be the case. However, the entire civil service would be required to obey the law, as enacted. So he'd be powerless.
He can't command the civil service to break the law. However, it would be a massive constitutional crisis and I would assume he'd have to be impeached.

J Mysterio · 06-09-2019 07:26PM

Now that bill is awaiting royal assent, its just a matter of what date the GE will be called for at this point. Johnson is finished, he is a lame duck.

https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1170004090610487298

I expect it will be called for before the next EU summit.

GM228 · 06-09-2019 07:28PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

ElectronVolt wrote: »

My questions is what are the consequences for him and his cabinet if they do refuse to obey the law? A lot of the checks and balances in the UK are proving to be nothing but an acceptance of precedent and fair play.

Hopefully jail for breaking the law.

There would have to be some sort of offence before charging, prosecuting and sending to jail, just because something is required to be done by law, does not mean that failure to do so is a crime or punishable by law, that said, there is the offence of misconduct in public office, but it is extremely difficult to prove and potentially even a failure to abide by the Act may not be enough to meet the standard required for such.

ElectronVolt wrote: »

It seems that wouldn't be the case. However, the entire civil service would be required to obey the law, as enacted. So he'd be powerless.
He can't command the civil service to break the law. However, it would be a massive constitutional crisis and I would assume he'd have to be impeached.

Impeachment is now obsolete, the HoC has not initiated one since 1806 when Lord Melville was (unsuccessfully) impeached.

Strazdas · 06-09-2019 07:32PM

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

The right wing media in the UK is incredibly weaponised. I suppose, like all aspects of Brexit, one has to look at who owns these papers and what gain they might see in Brexit

They're the most partisan and tribal media in Europe. I'm not sure if the average Briton realises just how radicalised the press is.....some of the papers are more like alt right blogs than sources of news.

For Forks Sake · 06-09-2019 07:32PM

KFC 1 - Tories 0

https://twitter.com/KFC_UKI/status/1169970678658998277

johnnyskeleton · 06-09-2019 07:32PM

Just catching up on a few Brexit twists and turns and this caught my eye:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/06/boris-johnsons-irish-border-plan-stalls-disastrous-eu-brexit-backstop-talks

In a heavily trailed move, Johnson’s envoy, David Frost, proposed an all-Ireland food standards zone on Friday, but the UK is also seeking to give the Stormont assembly a say on whether it would continue in the years ahead.

The attempt to give the proposed arrangement what British officials have described as democratic legitimacy by involving politicians in Northern Ireland was firmly knocked back by the EU. European commission negotiators said such a proposal would leave Ireland in a constant state of uncertainty over the future.

I thought something might be done to try to answer the lack of democracy point e.g. asking the people of Northern Ireland in a referendum whether they wanted the backstop, as opposed to merely relying on what the DUP said. Which one would assume would pass comfortably.

I wonder did the U.K. or E.U. realise that Stormont only works if the largest Nationalist and Unionist parties can agree. If the section said that Northern Ireland could come out of the backstop if the L.A. approves it coming out, it would only happen in the most unexpected circumstances i.e. S.F. would have to vote for it. However, if it was proposed that it can only continue to apply if Stormont continued to approve it, then it would most likely come to a sudden and abrupt halt, unless DUP voters switched to UUP/Alliance.

briany wrote: »

I love how the Brexit party's ultimatum to the Conservatives of 'deliver Brexit or we'll contest the next election' would be ensuring that no form of Brexit would happen for the foreseeable future. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot.

That's assuming that deep down Brexiteers and the Brexit party actually want Brexit. Farage has made an entire career, and a lucrative one at that, despite his protestations of poverty, campaigning for Brexit. If Brexit is achieved, then he no longer has anything to rail against.

Particularly if Brexit turns out not to be as beneficial as he has told people it would be!

ElectronVolt · 06-09-2019 07:37PM

They wouldn't try and hold it up with some mess in the Privy Council, would they?
Jacob Rees-Mogg is the Lord President of the Council.

I know the Privy Council's pretty broad, but it's just once you get past the HoC the system in the UK starts to look very archaic and like some vestige of empire.

Patser · 06-09-2019 07:39PM

All that KFC stuff is childish and pathetic, but it's all the Tories have left. They really were caught on the hop when Corbyn declined the election. That was Boris's get out of jail card, if he couldn't get his brexit.

Now he's trapped, and digging himself deeper into the trap every day. He can't have his election as long as opposition say no, has to dance to whatever tune they pass despite all his bluster about being dead in a ditch first, and every day he strengthens their hands by making more and more of his own supporters defect or resign. And now the Prorogue is going to shag him over too, as he has no time left to arrange another attempt for election if Monday goes as expected..

So calling Corbyn a chicken is pathetic. Labour and others can clearly see that Boris is stuck, and that be holding off he's looking poorer and poorer in the public's eye. And the big humiliation of facing Europe in October with his own parliament instructions forcing his hand is yet to come. Its delightful to watch as all these architects of Brexit - Mogg, Gove and Boris - face humiliation after humiliation.

If only Farage could be torn into too

circadian · 06-09-2019 07:54PM

I'd imagine Boris will request an extension but will do so in completely bad faith and intentionally trying to get the EU to decline.

The EU could do everyone a favour and call their bluff and grant an extension knowing that in a general election they'll probably get someone that's actually worth dealing with.

BorneTobyWilde · 06-09-2019 07:59PM

Does he really need to ask for an extension, Shirley the EU can just announce that they're extending Brexit in light of what has been passed into law in UK.

Strazdas · 06-09-2019 08:01PM

circadian wrote: »

I'd imagine Boris will request an extension but will do so in completely bad faith and intentionally trying to get the EU to decline.

The EU could do everyone a favour and call their bluff and grant an extension knowing that in a general election they'll probably get someone that's actually worth dealing with.

But the UK is going to have to come up with a major solution and very quickly. Ratify the WA, revoke A50, whatever.....it can't keep asking for extensions and more time

ancapailldorcha · 06-09-2019 08:04PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Does he really need to ask for an extension, Shirley the EU can just announce that they're extending Brexit in light of what has been passed into law in UK.

Except that this would constitute keeping a member state in the club which has given formal notice to leave. It would set a dangerous, authoritarian precedent and would be almost certainly illegal. Just because the UK's constitution is being dismembered by fanatics doesn't mean that the EU should follow their example.

GM228 · 06-09-2019 08:05PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Does he really need to ask for an extension, Shirley the EU can just announce that they're extending Brexit in light of what has been passed into law in UK.

No there must be unanimous agreement from both sides.

Joe_ Public · 06-09-2019 08:05PM

There's no straightforward way out of it, but i believe they will have to come around to the idea that a second referendum is likely the best way forward and there's a chance Johnson might offer that in some fashion or else the opposition will have to get their act together for some form of GNU that can put another public vote in place either with or without a new WAB. I struggle to see any other way out unless the EU simply runs out of patience and decides to pull the plug.

BorneTobyWilde · 06-09-2019 08:28PM

It was people who were retired that swung the vote to leave.

Young people love to shoot their mouth off after the event, but were stuck on their Playstation, or taking selfies when it was time to vote.

_90081129_eu_ref_uk_regions_leave_remain_gra624_by_age.png

_90081129_eu_ref_uk_regions_leave_remain_gra624_by_age.png

seamus · 06-09-2019 08:28PM

If Labour win a GE, they'll call a new referendum. It's the only way to put an end to this circus.

BorneTobyWilde · 06-09-2019 08:31PM

one armed dwarf · 06-09-2019 08:35PM

On the question of turnout, I still wonder how much of an impact was had by the massive storms in London on the day of the vote

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_floods

Not that it is an excuse for apathy, but transport was impossible after work on that day

GM228 · 06-09-2019 08:36PM

seamus wrote: »

If Labour win a GE, they'll call a new referendum. It's the only way to put an end to this circus.

Will they? Didn't Labour also rule out a new referendum.

Joe_ Public · 06-09-2019 08:37PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

It was people who were retired that swung the vote to leave.

Young people love to shoot their mouth off after the event, but were stuck on their Playstation, or taking selfies when it was time to vote.

Couple of factors. It was definitely credit to Cummings for mobilising a lot of voters who didnt traditionally turn out, but were convinced this time they needed to do their duty. Also, it would have hurt the youth vote that the referendum was held outside term time as the student turnout would have been significantly less. In the event of an election or second vote, this time both of those factors will favour the remain side, though by how much i wouldnt be able to say exactly.

cryptocurrency · 06-09-2019 08:38PM

seamus wrote: »

If Labour win a GE, they'll call a new referendum. It's the only way to put an end to this circus.

People who say that are making a presumption remain would win. They are wrong.

Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

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