Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Sam Russell · 06-09-2019 05:05PM

spacecoyote wrote: »

Just in relation to this. There is talk that they could have a VONC and the opposition to form a temporary government.

Does the leader of the largest party in the coalition automatically become acting PM?

Or could they nominate that the Father of the House be acting PM?

It has never happened, so who knows. However, if they have a vote of confidence in KC as PM, then he heads up to Buck House, and has a word, and comes back with the big seal.

Of course, he may have a fight getting into No 10 passed Dom Cummins, but I am sure that policeman with a gun will sort that out.

.

PropJoe10 · 06-09-2019 05:07PM

spacecoyote wrote: »

Just in relation to this. There is talk that they could have a VONC and the opposition to form a temporary government.

Does the leader of the largest party in the coalition automatically become acting PM?

Or could they nominate that the Father of the House be acting PM?

Unsure as to what could happen there but as someone else said, Clarke could be a lot more acceptable to Labour MP's as a temporary PM now that he's an independent (which the Tories should be ashamed of, considering his service to the party since 1970).

beggars_bush · 06-09-2019 05:12PM

PropJoe10 wrote: »

Unsure as to what could happen there but as someone else said, Clarke could be a lot more acceptable to Labour MP's as a temporary PM now that he's an independent (which the Tories should be ashamed of, considering his service to the party since 1970).

Tories are never ashamed of anything

Its their upbringing don't you know

BonnieSituation · 06-09-2019 05:18PM

ElectronVolt wrote: »

Various people took it as a reference to calling Irish people cattle and were triggered. Quite a lot of Irish Americans in particular took it that way.

I really don't think they did.

The quote is so well known that it's always used to beat the DUP with.

I have never until now, heard of a single person discussing it as being offended by it.

Paisley has said millions of things way worse than it. This is uterly bizzare. I think we should draw a line under it.

quokula · 06-09-2019 05:18PM

ElectronVolt wrote: »

It might well be, but the rest of the political system in the UK needs to hold onto whatever shreds of dignity they have left. All this is doing is driving "oh they're all the same", disillusionment and the general debasing of politics.

If you treat it like a big joke, that's precisely what it will become.

When your party is significantly worse than the others, then that's exactly the kind of opinion you want out there.

trellheim · 06-09-2019 05:25PM

they are handing out chicken breasts in the lobby

https://twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/1169974431550255106

A Shropshire Lad · 06-09-2019 05:31PM

Did Boris and his advisors just make a massive miscalculation with this strategy ?

Thought the opposition parties would never be able to get together to come up with a coherant strategy to oppose him
Thought Labour would jump at the chance of an election

Tippex · 06-09-2019 05:45PM

trellheim wrote: »

they are handing out chicken breasts in the lobby

https://twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/1169974431550255106

they are a laughing stock I have no idea how the UK electorate is not hauling them over hot coals at this stage. SMH

MikeSoys · 06-09-2019 05:45PM

am i missing something?.. tje lords have passed a bill to block / stop a no-deal..

so once the queen ratifies it they cant crash out...or can they still crash out?

eire4 · 06-09-2019 05:48PM

MikeSoys wrote: »

am i missing something?.. tje lords have passed a bill to block / stop a no-deal..

so once the queen ratifies it they cant crash out...or can they still crash out?

Well ultimately assuming no deal is agreed on between the EU and Britain (which seems likely) before October 31 then it really does not matter so much what the British parliament does or does not do. They only avoid a crash out if the EU agrees to give them yet another extension which is not a forgone conclusion.

J Mysterio · 06-09-2019 05:55PM

It must be so absolutely galling and mortifying for Johnson. Finally, finally realised his dream of becoming PM but has completely blown it!

The lies, disingenuousness and underhanded tactics which had served served him so well have come back to bite him. The legislation passed seems to effectively bind him to avoid No Deal and was explicitly created in that way as he 'can't be trusted'. So, somewhat powerless as PM barely a week into the job, and having lost at least three votes already.

The worst thing is that Johnson couldn't find the courage to lead without looking to take the easy route in turning to the extremists and purging the moderates (Night of the Long Knives aspect to it). Most that can be said of him is he at least took a position, just took the wrong one. May was a dithererer who wanted to be all things to all people and who really just had poor party discipline and got nothing done. I'm not convinced Johnson can rely on the ERG in any way despite his move though, not that they alone amount to much in the grand scheme of things. A GE in these circumstances is very dodgy for the Tories.

Given the opportunity though, Johnson has shown himself to be unfit to lead, confirming what most had suspected. He quickly went with his worst instincts, underlining once again the Tories reputation as the nasty party. Hopefully the expulsions might shake up UK politics for the better in some ways - it would be great if all those expelled joined the Lib Dems or did something new. I suspect most won't though, as they ultimately do identify as Tories, just another shade. They might hope to sit out this period before returning in future.

Johnson is goosed though. Now inextricably linked to the hard right, no mandate for his mission, no majority, hands tied, waiting for an election that is out of his hands. His bumbling affable chap persona just doesnt cut it at this level, and he cannot mumble and joke his way out of the questions that are being put to him. People expect the Prime Minister to be a serious person with serious ideas.

His brother now abandoning him and successive PR disasters with experts (Nichols, Police Commissioner) are nails in the coffin. He should probably resign now. What is the greater humiliation: to bow out now or to continue on parliaments leash? I imagine he will try to find a novel way to ignore Parliament, but who knows? The man is seemingly capable of anything.

allthedoyles · 06-09-2019 06:04PM

The last few pages are mainly about hitting Johnston below the belt , and in fairness he does deserve all he gets.
But he has a circle of friends that are as bad ,and some might be even worse and he has purposely surrounded himself with these incompetents , by sacking the rebels.

GM228 · 06-09-2019 06:13PM

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1174828/brexit-news-boris-johnson-eu-extension-law-mps-commons-oct-31-general-election

Boris ready to break law to deliver Brexit by Oct 31 as he vows to defy MPs' demands

BORIS Johnson has said he will defiantly refuse to delay Brexit even after MPS and the House of Lords passed a law to force an extension to Article 50 and block no deal

Top reporting by the Express or just rubbish, he did state the other day in the HoC he would obey by the law.

PokeHerKing · 06-09-2019 06:13PM

eire4 wrote: »

Well ultimately assuming no deal is agreed on between the EU and Britain (which seems likely) before October 31 then it really does not matter so much what the British parliament does or does not do. They only avoid a crash out if the EU agrees to give them yet another extension which is not a forgone conclusion.

The EU granting an extension, given the current state of play is as close to a foregone conclusion as you can get imo.

RickBlaine · 06-09-2019 06:13PM

eire4 wrote: »

MikeSoys wrote: »

am i missing something?.. tje lords have passed a bill to block / stop a no-deal..

so once the queen ratifies it they cant crash out...or can they still crash out?

Well ultimately assuming no deal is agreed on between the EU and Britain (which seems likely) before October 31 then it really does not matter so much what the British parliament does or does not do. They only avoid a crash out if the EU agrees to give them yet another extension which is not a forgone conclusion.

But what if Johnson doesn't request an extension despite the bill.

sondagefaux · 06-09-2019 06:14PM

If Johnson is determined not to request an extension, the only options open to him, apart from breaking the law, are to either resign as Prime Minister or to engineer a veto by one or more members of the European Council.

It's difficult to predict the attitude of the EU27 to an extension request.

On the one hand, the EU27 don't want to be seen as the bad guys by turning down an extension request, and another few months to prepare for a potential No Deal Brexit and/or to figure out a way of getting the UK to ratify the Withdrawal Agreement would be very useful.

On the other hand, some of the EU27, especially Macron, are pretty damn fed up, and have already said that they'd only agree to an extension if the UK holds either a general election, a referendum (or maybe both!).

sondagefaux · 06-09-2019 06:16PM

GM228 wrote: »

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1174828/brexit-news-boris-johnson-eu-extension-law-mps-commons-oct-31-general-election

Top reporting by the Express or just rubbish, he did state the other day in the HoC he would obey by the law.

The Express regularly reports on aliens and asteroids that have 'just missed' the Earth by several million miles.

Its web version is also obsessed with alternative endings to Game of Thrones.

It's about as credible as the National Enquirer.

RickBlaine · 06-09-2019 06:20PM

Re the EU27, I think the forthcoming GE is sufficient reason to grant an extension.

GM228 · 06-09-2019 06:21PM

sondagefaux wrote: »

The Express regularly reports on aliens...

...It's about as credible as the National Enquirer.

You mean they're not real? Ah no :rolleyes:

Joking aside, that reminds me of a comment I saw online:-

1999: In twenty years we are going to Mars
2019: We are going nowhere with Brexit

GM228 · 06-09-2019 06:23PM

RickBlaine wrote: »

Re the EU27, I think the forthcoming GE is sufficient reason to grant an extension.

That's assuming one is voted for, though now that the delay Bill is passed I can see that being guaranteed next week.

Imreoir2 · 06-09-2019 06:26PM

Royale with Cheese wrote: »

That JFC thing is the single most pathetic thing I've seen in politics.

People think Cummings is a genious, his plan if Labour blocks an election was literally just to call Corbyn chicken. Thats it. You can see that they prepared a lot for this, even paid a graphic disigner to put together stickers for a KFC joke. A five year old could have come up with it.

sondagefaux · 06-09-2019 06:27PM

RickBlaine wrote: »

Re the EU27, I think the forthcoming GE is sufficient reason to grant an extension.

I don't really think it is. I'm not sure that it would resolve anything, as there's so much disagreement in parliament.

I can't really see a general election making it easier for parliament to get a majority in favour of the Withdrawal Agreement or a majority in favour of a No Deal Brexit.

If parliament can't make its mind up, it should refer the question back to the people.

For those who can't stomach a second referendum on whether or not the UK should remain or leave, the question in the referendum could avoid including remaining in the EU as an option.

It could be confined to choosing between two Leave options: a 'soft Brexit' with the entire UK remaining in the Single Market, with the addition of a Customs Union with the EU for Northern Ireland, or a No Deal Brexit.

I'm very confident that the first option would win easily.

Strazdas · 06-09-2019 06:30PM

RickBlaine wrote: »

Re the EU27, I think the forthcoming GE is sufficient reason to grant an extension.

Yes, but there might also be strict terms and conditions attached. The extension could be very short and the UK might have to come up with a major new proposal to the EU to stop No Deal.

Forty Seven · 06-09-2019 06:30PM

I think we are witnessing something here that transcends Brexit. This is the rise of the proletariat, only they are not rising as Marx predicted. Years of immigration coupled with austerity has the lower rung of the nation becoming more right wing, this was evident with the rise of UKIP and the tories moving away from the center right to counter.

I have thought for some time that we are heading into a global catastrophe akin to the last two wars. History shows there are stages coming into a conflict. Often they start with a financial crisis, check, then polarisation of political views, check, a minority group or country to blame, check both, (immigrants, EU) political stalemate resulting in a strong leader emerging, check (he doesn't have to be strong, just appear it) the disastisfaction of the political classes among the populace, check, nationalism becoming more widespread, check, people in the streets protesting, check.

I surmise we are on about chapter 5 of the coming bestseller on WW3. It is globally unfolding, the US and China in a trade war, the immigration problem in Europe, the re-emergence of Russian muscle flexing. Europe fragmenting. (Like it or not, Brexit has dented the credibility and will have unforseen consequences)

We are witnessing England burgeoning into a far right nation and probably the break up of the union. The gloves are going to come off at some point. I am going to start buying gold again.

sondagefaux · 06-09-2019 06:31PM

GM228 wrote: »

That's assuming one is voted for, though now that the delay Bill is passed I can see that being guaranteed next week.

I don't see it being guaranteed next week, at least not before October 31st.

If the UK doesn't leave the EU on October 31st, then Johnson's 'do or die' pledge is broken and he's shown up as a liar.

An opinion poll published this week shows that the Conservatives on 37% for an election held before October 31st, but on only 28% for an election held after October 31st.

I would imagine that's going to be uppermost in the minds of most opposition MPs when they cast their votes next week.

briany · 06-09-2019 06:31PM

Imreoir2 wrote: »

People think Cummings is a genious, his plan if Labour blocks an election was literally just to call Corbyn chicken. Thats it. You can see that they prepared a lot for this, even paid a graphic disigner to put together stickers for a KFC joke. A five year old could have come up with it.

The Tories have a history of these publicity stunts.

https://twitter.com/oakroyd/status/536557121887027201

PopePalpatine · 06-09-2019 06:31PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

It I imagine he will try to find a novel way to ignore Parliament, but who knows? The man is seemingly capable of anything.

I wouldn't put it past him, or JRM and the rest of those Bullingdon toffs.

GM228 · 06-09-2019 06:32PM

sondagefaux wrote: »

For those who can't stomach a second referendum on whether or not the UK should remain or leave, the question in the referendum could avoid including remaining in the EU as an option.

It could be confined to choosing between two Leave options: a 'soft Brexit' with the entire UK remaining in the Single Market, with the addition of a Customs Union with the EU for Northern Ireland, or a No Deal Brexit.

I'm very confident that the first option would win easily.

The problem is if the first option you give is voted for a deal is still required, in any case you are affording an option with two versions of NO, imagine the outcry. I think at this stage a yes/no option would be required, but perhaps with a sub no option as you describe.

An Ciarraioch · 06-09-2019 06:36PM

One poll gives the Tories 340 seats in an October election, and just 266 if the UK is still in the EU in November:

https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1170019633702821891

theguzman · 06-09-2019 06:39PM

Forty Seven wrote: »

I think we are witnessing something here that transcends Brexit. This is the rise of the proletariat, only they are not rising as Marx predicted. Years of immigration coupled with austerity has the lower rung of the nation becoming more right wing, this was evident with the rise of UKIP and the tories moving away from the center right to counter.

I have thought for some time that we are heading into a global catastrophe akin to the last two wars. History shows there are stages coming into a conflict. Often they start with a financial crisis, check, then polarisation of political views, check, a minority group or country to blame, check both, (immigrants, EU) political stalemate resulting in a strong leader emerging, check (he doesn't have to be strong, just appear it) the disastisfaction of the political classes among the populace, check, nationalism becoming more widespread, check, people in the streets protesting, check.

I surmise we are on about chapter 5 of the coming bestseller on WW3. It is globally unfolding, the US and China in a trade war, the immigration problem in Europe, the re-emergence of Russian muscle flexing. Europe fragmenting. (Like it or not, Brexit has dented the credibility and will have unforseen consequences)

We are witnessing England burgeoning into a far right nation and probably the break up of the union. The gloves are going to come off at some point. I am going to start buying gold again.

It would really merit a thread of its own but Brexit was really a result of the backlash against the political establishment, Trump, Bolsonaro Salvini etc, also.

Basically Farage managed to whip up enough jingoism to result in Brexit winning the referendum and we have been dealing with the mess ever since. Cameron like a coward headed for the door immediately when in reality he would have been far better suited to handling this than Theresa May or Boris now.

I actually think Brexit may never happen now.

Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

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