Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

fash · 06-09-2019 02:06PM

gmisk wrote: »

Boris is really struggling not in a million years are Ireland or the EU going to agree to those.
Why the hell would Ireland want to diverge from EU food standards?

So they can get their hands on chlorinated chicken and hormone-treated beef?!?!! lol

I'd be happy to align with the UK - so long as it is Ireland that gets to decide what the standards are.

josip · 06-09-2019 02:07PM

I don't think Boris is serious about those recent proposals.
It's important for him to be able to say he is proposing alternatives and it's the EU/Ireland that are rejecting them and being difficult.
Just part of the pre election blame game

robinph · 06-09-2019 02:09PM

murphaph wrote: »

https://www.westyorkshire.police.uk/news-appeals/statement-west-yorkshire-chief-constable-john-robins-yesterdays-ministerial-visit

Chief Constable of West Yorkshire Police was not amused.

Any bodies like that should have their ideas clear beforehand for the next few weeks/ months and the moment the politician starts going off the agreed script and into campaign mode you signal your police cadets/ ambulance staff/ fire officers/ army/ navy/ etc to march off.

Would soon put a stop to it happening.

Edit: Australia showing how it's done:

https://twitter.com/jonny_b69/status/1169924034399756288?s=20

joe40 · 06-09-2019 02:12PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

TM WA is actually a hard Brexit, it is being reclassed as something much softer in relation to crash out.

But it is very far removed from the expectations of the ref campaign. It failed because it didn't meet the wide variation of expectations ranging from soft to crash out.

But, and this needs to be repeated everytime, the Government had the numbers to get it passed. It is entirely down to the fact that the Tories themselves wouldn't vote for it that we are where we are. Every government needs to work on the basis that the opposition will vote against them on pretty much everything.

TM didn't want Labour anywhere near her Brexit, so it is a bit rich to then complain they didn't help her.

Nothing is going to meet that range of expectations.

On an issue as important as Brexit you would imagine normal politics of opposition and government would be set aside.

The WA was agreed by the EU and acceptable to Ireland is still the only deal available.

I'm not saying Labour and Lib dems should have voted for it but if they had it would have been passed by now.

I know the outcome may turn out better, but it could also become a lot worse.

Leroy42 · 06-09-2019 02:16PM

fash wrote: »

I'd be happy to align with the UK - so long as it is Ireland that gets to decide what the standards are.

Bingo. There it is. The UK have a major issue with taking standards agreed by all in the EU, but now want to inflict standards on Ireland when we will have no say into them.

Isn't that the very thing they hate about the Backstop. Kaya Adler says that there is clearly a case of both sides talking past each other, failing to understand what the other side is saying.

But this isn't even that. This is asking the other side to agree to the very thing that you say that no country would even consider.

ath262 · 06-09-2019 02:18PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Lisa O'Carroll of the Guardian has fresh detail on the backstop story - the UK wants to move away from a level playing field on employment law, loosen defence pledges, and ask Ireland to align with the UK on food standards:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/06/backstop-boris-johnson-brexit-deal-changes-defence-workers-rights

it's beginning to look like he's trying to sabotage the talks while keeping up the pretence of genuine netogiations, and make the EU tell Frost to get lost... so he can blame the EU & Ireland for the UK having to crash out with no-deal

PropJoe10 · 06-09-2019 02:22PM

ath262 wrote: »

it's beginning to look like he's trying to sabotage the talks while keeping up the pretence of genuine netogiations, and make the EU tell Frost to get lost... so he can blame the EU & Ireland for the UK having to crash out with no-deal

That's been his strategy since he took office. None of this is surprising. It's the Dominic Cummings playbook, pure and simple.

Strazdas · 06-09-2019 02:33PM

Interesting suggestion from Peter Foster : he thinks Johnson could indeed get the UK out of the EU by Oct 31 by shafting the DUP and going for an NI backstop only. He admits this is a mere speculative theory though

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1169955796974743557

Tell me how · 06-09-2019 02:41PM

PropJoe10 wrote: »

That's been his strategy since he took office. None of this is surprising. It's the Dominic Cummings playbook, pure and simple.

Maybe, but Johnson looking as isolated and clueless as he does at times and reports of Cummings stumbling around Westminster with glass of wine in hand and being extremely verbal in his condemnation of Tory rebels doesn't indicate that this is all going according to plan.

Phillipe Lamberts blunt "That's bullsh*t" assessment of UK statements on negotiations was necessary to dispel some of the lies from Johnson but I wonder how many in the UK actually even heard that statement.

prunudo · 06-09-2019 02:42PM

Okay, crazy thought here, and probably haven't thought it out properly....
But bar saving face, what is the rush to get out on the 31st Oct. why rush out with no plans, no deal, why not try and negotiate a good deal over whatever time period it takes. Why are they so eager to get out, even if it means absolute chaos and years of hardship and inevitable trade deals dragging on.

Lady Spangles · 06-09-2019 02:45PM

prunudo wrote: »

Okay, crazy thought here, and probably haven't thought it out properly....
But bar saving face, what is the rush to get out on the 31st Oct. why rush out with no plans, no deal, why not try and negotiate a good deal over whatever time period it takes. Why are they so eager to get out, even if it means absolute chaos and years of hardship and inevitable trade deals dragging on.

The EU have already ruled out a re-negotiation though. They're eager to get out because it's already been three years and because they're all bloody insane.

Tell me how · 06-09-2019 02:45PM

prunudo wrote: »

Okay, crazy thought here, and probably haven't thought it out properly....
But bar saving face, what is the rush to get out on the 31st Oct. why rush out with no plans, no deal, why not try and negotiate a good deal over whatever time period it takes. Why are they so eager to get out, even if it means absolute chaos and years of hardship and inevitable trade deals dragging on.

Because they are terrified that every extension that passes without them leaving increases the likelihood that they will never leave.

29th March, 30th June and now 31st October.
Each failure to leave by a deadline indicates the problems and gives voice to those saying the people must be asked again.

A Dub in Glasgo · 06-09-2019 02:46PM

prunudo wrote: »

Okay, crazy thought here, and probably haven't thought it out properly....
But bar saving face, what is the rush to get out on the 31st Oct. why rush out with no plans, no deal, why not try and negotiate a good deal over whatever time period it takes. Why are they so eager to get out, even if it means absolute chaos and years of hardship and inevitable trade deals dragging on.

The EU extended the Brexit date to 31 Oct, it was meant to be 29 March but the UK requested two extension periods. It should be noted that the UK has done nothing but sabotage the terms of the extension

Imreoir2 · 06-09-2019 02:47PM

prunudo wrote: »

Okay, crazy thought here, and probably haven't thought it out properly....
But bar saving face, what is the rush to get out on the 31st Oct. why rush out with no plans, no deal, why not try and negotiate a good deal over whatever time period it takes. Why are they so eager to get out, even if it means absolute chaos and years of hardship and inevitable trade deals dragging on.

Fear of the Brexit Party I suppose. This whole saga started as an atempt to head off UKIP eating into the Tory vote and so it continues but replace the now defunct UKIP with TBP.

Professor Moriarty · 06-09-2019 02:47PM

prunudo wrote: »

Okay, crazy thought here, and probably haven't thought it out properly....
But bar saving face, what is the rush to get out on the 31st Oct. why rush out with no plans, no deal, why not try and negotiate a good deal over whatever time period it takes. Why are they so eager to get out, even if it means absolute chaos and years of hardship and inevitable trade deals dragging on.

Have a look at who is at the helm of the good ship Tory Party. That's why.

lobbylad · 06-09-2019 02:48PM

From Boris: "Look at fantastic Scottish beef, which I’ve just been looking at. Not a morsel of it currently goes to America. You could do a a free trade deal with America where you don’t import their hormone-treated beef, but you do a deal on high-quality products, you allow Scottish farmers to sell, to discover new markets around the world."

Eh, doesn't Ireland export beef to the USA (over 1766 tonnes in first 10 months of 2018) - so the UK is surely free to negotiate selling beef to the US as it is? It's not the EU that's stopping them?

https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/e7-75-million-worth-of-irish-beef-exported-to-us-up-to-october/

Strazdas · 06-09-2019 02:50PM

prunudo wrote: »

Okay, crazy thought here, and probably haven't thought it out properly....
But bar saving face, what is the rush to get out on the 31st Oct. why rush out with no plans, no deal, why not try and negotiate a good deal over whatever time period it takes. Why are they so eager to get out, even if it means absolute chaos and years of hardship and inevitable trade deals dragging on.

Closely tied in with a general election I'm sure. Johnson and Cummings think the best chance of winning a GE is to hold one very early and to 'deliver Brexit' at the same time. Brexit dragging on into 2020 would be very bad news and each passing day would lessen the chances of a GE win.

Professor Moriarty · 06-09-2019 02:51PM

lobbylad wrote: »

From Boris: "Look at fantastic Scottish beef, which I’ve just been looking at. Not a morsel of it currently goes to America. You could do a a free trade deal with America where you don’t import their hormone-treated beef, but you do a deal on high-quality products, you allow Scottish farmers to sell, to discover new markets around the world."

Eh, doesn't Ireland export beef to the USA (over 1766 tonnes in first 10 months of 2018) - so the UK is surely free to negotiate selling beef to the US as it is? It's not the EU that's stopping them?

https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/e7-75-million-worth-of-irish-beef-exported-to-us-up-to-october/

Yeah but what have facts got to do with it?

mrbrianj · 06-09-2019 02:52PM

prunudo wrote: »

Okay, crazy thought here, and probably haven't thought it out properly....
But bar saving face, what is the rush to get out on the 31st Oct. why rush out with no plans, no deal, why not try and negotiate a good deal over whatever time period it takes. Why are they so eager to get out, even if it means absolute chaos and years of hardship and inevitable trade deals dragging on.

The crash out aim is the English exceptionalism belief that they will force Ireland to drop the back stop and effectively leave the single market and that the German Car makers and the Italian prosecco makers will come knocking the door down to sell for less than they are now.

They dont expect that Ireland will put the single market before the UK market.

spacecoyote · 06-09-2019 02:54PM

lobbylad wrote: »

From Boris: "Look at fantastic Scottish beef, which I’ve just been looking at. Not a morsel of it currently goes to America. You could do a a free trade deal with America where you don’t import their hormone-treated beef, but you do a deal on high-quality products, you allow Scottish farmers to sell, to discover new markets around the world."

Eh, doesn't Ireland export beef to the USA (over 1766 tonnes in first 10 months of 2018) - so the UK is surely free to negotiate selling beef to the US as it is? It's not the EU that's stopping them?

https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/e7-75-million-worth-of-irish-beef-exported-to-us-up-to-october/

And no doubt the American's would love a 1-sided deal like that...you have to buy all of our beef, but we'll buy none of yours

Hermy · 06-09-2019 02:55PM

As Brexit chunters on to who knows where I continue to read this thread with interest and I'm grateful to the many contributors for providing so much informed comment and many useful links for further reading. However, I'd be grateful to ye for your input on two minor matters that seem to have passed me by.

Firstly, how has the wonderful Speaker Bercow managed to hold onto his seat this long, given the thorn he's been in the side of the Tory government? I take it there is no convenient mechanism that would allow a government not disposed to him to remove him from office.

And secondly, what is meant by a level playing field in the context of Brexit?

mrbrianj · 06-09-2019 02:58PM

lobbylad wrote: »

From Boris: "Look at fantastic Scottish beef, which I’ve just been looking at. Not a morsel of it currently goes to America. You could do a a free trade deal with America where you don’t import their hormone-treated beef, but you do a deal on high-quality products, you allow Scottish farmers to sell, to discover new markets around the world."

Eh, doesn't Ireland export beef to the USA (over 1766 tonnes in first 10 months of 2018) - so the UK is surely free to negotiate selling beef to the US as it is? It's not the EU that's stopping them?

https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/e7-75-million-worth-of-irish-beef-exported-to-us-up-to-october/

Yeah, the one way trade thing will work with the US aright, just like his negotiations with the EU are working now.

ElectronVolt · 06-09-2019 03:02PM

That Ian Paisley quote, while it ruffled a lot of sensitivities and feathers of Twitter-based Irish nationals and looked like it was calling Irish people cattle, very much seemed to be about separate regulations for Northern Ireland. It could have been clumsy and offensive language, or it could have been an attempt to soften the blow he's about to give the DUP.

As it stands, throwing the DUP under the bus doesn't matter to him in the least. They're not the Tories and he already has a minority government that is just pending a vote of no confidence and a general election. A few more votes gone is neither here nor there.

What difference to is make to Boris if the DUP's nose is out of joint? His only objective is securing Brexit for England in reality. He is an English nationalist and he's appealing to an English nationalist vote.

briany · 06-09-2019 03:05PM

Hermy wrote: »

As Brexit chunters on to who knows where I continue to read this thread with interest and I'm grateful to the many contributors for providing so much informed comment and many useful links for further reading. However, I'd be grateful to ye for your input on two minor matters that seem to have passed me by.

Firstly, how has the wonderful Speaker Bercow managed to hold onto his seat this long, given the thorn he's been in the side of the Tory government? I take it there is no convenient mechanism that would allow a government not disposed to him to remove him from office.

Bercow will be there until the next GE. He said he'll be stepping down as speaker after his current term. As for removing him before that, I don't think the parliamentary will is there for that.

briany · 06-09-2019 03:12PM

ElectronVolt wrote: »

That Ian Paisley quote, while it ruffled a lot of sensitivities and feathers of Twitter-based Irish nationals and looked like it was calling Irish people cattle, very much seemed to be about separate regulations for Northern Ireland. It could have been clumsy and offensive language, or it could have been an attempt to soften the blow he's about to give the DUP.

As it stands, throwing the DUP under the bus doesn't matter to him in the least. They're not the Tories and he already has a minority government that is just pending a vote of no confidence and a general election. A few more votes gone is neither here nor there.

What difference to is make to Boris if the DUP's nose is out of joint? His only objective is securing Brexit for England in reality. He is an English nationalist and he's appealing to an English nationalist vote.

The DUP wouldn't be getting thrown under the bus, except for their notions of hyper-Brititshness. The backstop leaves NI safe on the kerb while the rest of the UK eats tyre.

robinph · 06-09-2019 03:13PM

briany wrote: »

Bercow will be there until the next GE. He said he'll be stepping down as speaker after his current term. As for removing him before that, I don't think the parliamentary will is there for that.

I don't think he'd step down before Brexit is sorted, or at least delayed for a long time. Not that it's going to happen now, but he wouldn't have been stepping down if the GE was called for the beginning of October as he'd have seen that as just a way to try and get a more Brexity minded speaker installed who'd let May and now Johnson away with their games.

ElectronVolt · 06-09-2019 03:13PM

briany wrote: »

The DUP wouldn't be getting thrown under the bus, except for their notions of hyper-Brititshness. The backstop leaves NI safe on the kerb while the rest of the UK eats tyre.

Of course not in the real world sense, but politically they most definitely would be. They've some ridiculous notion that the Tories actually have some kind of fondness for them or loyalty towards them as a partner.

is_that_so · 06-09-2019 03:14PM

Meanwhile the EU seems to have accepted a No-Deal Brexit as all but inevitable but have moved on to the planning phase, something Britain has been manifestly incapable of doing. This will be in place and any talks and support required addressed long before the UK do.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2019/0906/1074298-eu-border-checks/

El Weirdo · 06-09-2019 03:21PM

ElectronVolt wrote: »

That Ian Paisley quote, while it ruffled a lot of sensitivities and feathers of Twitter-based Irish nationals and looked like it was calling Irish people cattle...

Wait, was this a thing?

mrbrianj · 06-09-2019 03:22PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Meanwhile the EU seems to have all but accepted a No-Deal Brexit as all but inevitable but have moved on to the planning phase, something Britain has been manifestly incapable of doing. This will be in place and any talks and support required addressed long before the UK do.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2019/0906/1074298-eu-border-checks/

Yes, the EU will be passive up to a point then its our choice where to have checks - the border with the Uk or the ports with the EU. Only one winner there unfortunately.

But, i'd reckon at this stage the EU know that the UK wont be capable to deal until they actually experience to realities of a hard Brexit.

Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

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