Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Well, no, because in order to fix Dover, business closures, redundancies, food and fuel shortages, capital flight, sterling in the gutter etc the UK will need a trade deal with the EU pronto.

And the price for entering talks will be €33 billion, guarantees on EU citizens rights and a solution for the Irish Border.

The UK red-tops will melt down, and EU talks will be front page news for a decade.

I'm inclined to disagree with you here but not because I think the UK won't suffer problems but because of the way the news works. If the UK gets 10% poorer or even 20% poorer as a result of Brexit, even this stops being news after a time. When redundancies happen they are news but sadly not news six months later. This is unfair for the people affected and who can remain affected for much longer but nevertheless true.

My guess is about two years after Brexit, Brexit itself and the debate over it will be subject to only very minor discussion in the news media. I'm sure there will be ongoing trade talks between the UK and the EU but these will not be of huge interest either. They will be part of the background. The basic debate about Brexit itself will be over.

Forty Seven wrote: »

They made perfect sense, to leavers. Who unfortunately won a referendum and are hell bent on following it through regardless of the cost.

Me pointing out that the ECHR and the ECtHR are in fact quite a sticking point in this mess is merely a reflection of the idea posted here by many that the UK is somehow misguided and just hating anything EU. It is seen as capitulation. It's not all about the backstop.

And as pointed out above, they're deluded. All of those things will be back, front and centre after the UK leaves without a deal. The only way they don't is if the UK decides that it will never trade with the EU on anything other than WTO MFN rules.

Bit cynical wrote: »

My guess is about two years after Brexit, Brexit itself and the debate over it will be subject to only very minor discussion in the news media. I'm sure there will be ongoing trade talks between the UK and the EU but these will not be of huge interest either. They will be part of the background. The basic debate about Brexit itself will be over.

You may be right. But those who support remaining won't shut up. Ever.

Bit cynical wrote: »

I'm sure there will be ongoing trade talks between the UK and the EU but these will not be of huge interest either. They will be part of the background. The basic debate about Brexit itself will be over.

When you have Brexiters today talking about fighting Germans for their freedom 100 years ago, there's no way they'll sit quietly in the background while the British government of the day "sells them out" to Brussels in 5 or 10 years time.

CelticRambler wrote: »

Yes, but those are just the effects of "no deal" - equivalent to Ireland's bail-out. But once Ireland was bailed out, that was the "end" of it (apart from the lingering consquences that you describe). For the UK, though, they'll go through all of that and then arrive back at this same point: having to agree a deal, and having to decide amongst themselves exactly how closely they want to align themselves with the EU to get that deal done. Cue howls of "we didn't fight for Brexit just to hand everything back to Brussels" - and media sensationalist reporting of same.

However the UK entering into trade discussions with the EU after a no deal exit will be different to those that were happening earlier this year. The crash out that everyone is fearing will have happened and therefore also there will be no deadline with a potential crash out at the end of it. This is what the news was focussed on during the recent negotiations.

There might be a bit of reporting when the talks start but they will fade into the background as the years go on.

Forty Seven wrote: »

They made perfect sense, to leavers. Who unfortunately won a referendum and are hell bent on following it through regardless of the cost.



Me pointing out that the ECHR and the ECtHR are in fact quite a sticking point in this mess is merely a reflection of the idea posted here by many that the UK is somehow misguided and just hating anything EU. It is seen as capitulation. It's not all about the backstop.

But the ECHR or ECtHR has nothing to do with the EU so leaving the EU will not mean leaving the ECHR. This is before you add in the complication of the GFA and the ECHR. You are right that the ECHR is a sticking point for a lot of people but I believe it is because they don't understand it and has been told it is bad by the tabloids. You yourself made reference to a case that on the surface seems to support your view of the ECHR, but a little digging shows it is not the ECHR that is the problem but the implementation of it. You cannot blame the EU for that, which you and a lot of people are doing.

Then you have to add the complication that if the UK wants to continue a security partnership with the EU they will still need to agree to keep to the ECHR, if they want be able to deport criminals from the UK to the EU. That is one of the things people seem very keen on doing, so the choices are limited in what he UK can do with the ECHR.

This is the point many have on here and it is a Brexit problem, once you scratch the surface it comes peeling away and any sensible arguments just falls apart. As a Remainer you should be fighting this instead of just giving up. You say you are a unionist in Scotland but fail to see the quickest way for Scotland to go for independence is for a no-deal Brexit. So you have two reasons to fight it, instead you just shrug your shoulders and want to get on with it.

And the clincher is that leaving with or without a deal guarantees nothing. For the next 7-10 years you will still be wrapped up in Brexit. Because the other countries will want to see what the UK's relationship is before they commit to trade deals with the UK. So the UK will be trying to negotiate a trade deal and what EU institutions they want to take part in after the implementation period (if a deal is agreed) and this alone may shape the relationship as BRINO. This will piss off the Brexit supporters and they will continue to rattle the cage.

Or you leave without a deal and from the first day you are trying to fight fires as they break out. I agree it will not be Armageddon on the first day, but the problems will slowly become worse and worse. Then you have to negotiate with the EU and we will tell you to sort out the border, citizens rights and the divorce bill. And we are back at square one again, but you have no trade deal or transitions with any countries and they will not give you any deal until you sort out the relationship with the EU. Do you start to see the problem here?

The only way to stop the chatter about Brexit for the next 10 years is to reverse it. Yes you will have politicians moaning about it, but we know they are a minority and if you ask them the plan they don't have none.

In any case, I don't know if anyone has picked it up, but Gove during his appearance at the Brexit Committee said that the UK will not look to impose tariffs on goods from Ireland to NI. He was then asked how to square the WTO circle and said they have legal advice from the Attorney General that there is a clause from the WTO that will allow this and allow them to collect tariffs from Ireland to the UK. When asked if this is unilateral or will need the WTO to agree I believe his answer was he wasn't sure. You can bet then that this is not a unilateral decision and it sounds so much like GATT 24. Surely he cannot be referring to GATT 24?

Not saying polls shouldn't be of interest, but when you consider how far out most of them were in 2017 at a time that was so much less volatile than now, i'm not sure how much value should be placed in them. Time will tell, but i find it difficult to see any party coming back with a majority or even enough seats to form a coalition or confidence and supply arrangement with one other party. The timing and terms of the election is the huge caveat, of course, but i would currently bet large on hung parliament and even more brexit uncertainty in its wake.

CelticRambler wrote: »

When you have Brexiters today talking about fighting Germans for their freedom 100 years ago, there's no way they'll sit quietly in the background while the British government of the day "sells them out" to Brussels in 5 or 10 years time.

The "anti-EU" movement might be deeply discredited in 5 to 10 years time though. I suspect a lot of stuff will come out to say they were up to their necks in criminality.

Johnson making a speech with about 30 police officers lined up behind him.

Very Trumpian.

bilston wrote: »

Johnson making a speech with about 30 police officers lined up behind him.

Very Trumpian.

I cannot take any of what he says seriously when he talks about fighting crime and giving the police the resources they need, when he was in parliament and government that cut resources for the same police services. Liar.

Bit cynical wrote: »

But they will be increasingly confined to Internet message boards only read by other vocal remainers. The rest sadly will move on.

Not in Westminster they won't. Far too juicy a stick to beat the Tories with.

WTF?!!!

One of the police officers has fainted behind him and he has just kept talking.

Edit - fainted maybe an exaggeration but that was just weird.

bilston wrote: »

WTF?!!!

You'll need to narrow that down a bit - which of the 10 recent WTF events are you reacting to?

This is the speech Johnson is making. He is worse than May, look at him under questioning from the press. He has no energy and is waffling on and on and on and is caught out constantly on his promises and statements from before.




The questions to him starts around 9 minutes in.

bilston wrote: »

WTF?!!!

One of the police officers has fainted behind him and he has just kept talking.

Edit - fainted maybe an exaggeration but that was just weird.

Nodded off perhaps?
Wouldn't blame him. They've been standing there since a good while before the speech.