Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

MadYaker · 04-09-2019 03:43PM

This guy should be PM

VinLieger · 04-09-2019 03:53PM

If this bill does pass what is the likelihood an extension is granted by the EU?

First Up · 04-09-2019 03:55PM

VinLieger wrote:

If this bill does pass what is the likelihood an extension is granted by the EU?

The UK would have to ask for one and Bojo says he won't so it would need a few other things to happen as well.

Bigus · 04-09-2019 03:56PM

VinLieger wrote: »

If this bill does pass what is the likelihood an extension is granted by the EU?

The E.U. will grant an extension under these genuine circumstances, it’s not personal like a divorce.

Tell me how · 04-09-2019 03:57PM

This is in keeping with the clueless amateurishness of the whole Brexit debacle to this point.

https://twitter.com/DawnHFoster/status/1169192794289856512

If you are a political journalist live from outside Westminster, there are some things you really should know.
He saw the opening, and nailed it.

is_that_so · 04-09-2019 03:58PM

VinLieger wrote: »

If this bill does pass what is the likelihood an extension is granted by the EU?

Boris has to ask for one and there needs to be a good reason. A new parliament with Brexiteers in the minority might be one scenario. Some real alternatives is another but that's probably a complete no-hoper.

Dytalus · 04-09-2019 04:05PM

Tell me how wrote: »

This is in keeping with the clueless amateurishness of the whole Brexit debacle to this point.

https://twitter.com/DawnHFoster/status/1169192794289856512

If you are a political journalist live from outside Westminster, there are some things you really should know.
He saw the opening, and nailed it.

Well, that must have been embarrassing. But it's not the first time over the course of the Brexit debacle that journalists (and politicians for that matter) covering it in the UK have fallen for soundbites and 'alternative facts' simply because some high profile members of parliament repeat them ad nauseum. The "Sinn Féin take their pay but not their seats" talking point has been around for years, and yet is painfully easy to disprove.

trellheim · 04-09-2019 04:07PM

Another Superb report from Peter Foster

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1169255491211595777

Rising to Tony Connelly levels of excellence here.

ShooterSF · 04-09-2019 04:08PM

The EU need to wait until after any election before looking at an extension. No point unless one side or the other come back with a strong majority.

ToBeFrank123 · 04-09-2019 04:08PM

Can Johnson simply ignore the request for an extension?

gmisk · 04-09-2019 04:08PM

Tell me how wrote: »

This is in keeping with the clueless amateurishness of the whole Brexit debacle to this point.

https://twitter.com/DawnHFoster/status/1169192794289856512

If you are a political journalist live from outside Westminster, there are some things you really should know.
He saw the opening, and nailed it.

That kind of shows you how clueless the UK media in general is when it comes to politics in northern ireland.

There shock when they had to do some digging into the DUP and their policies etc....lol

Joe_ Public · 04-09-2019 04:12PM

Bigus wrote: »

The E.U. will grant an extension under these genuine circumstances, it’s not personal like a divorce.

Issue as i see it is, though, that even assuming the EU grants an extension, what would likely change in that period if Boris Johnson remained as PM? Isn't getting Johnson out of Downing St a necessary part of that strategy? But that in turn entails getting Corbyn into Downing St so therein lies the crux.... Saw the headline on Danny Finkelstein's piece in the Times this morning: it's either No Deal or Jeremy Corbyn. That seems a fair summation from what i can see.

trellheim · 04-09-2019 04:14PM

I suspect that if the Bill passes then some delaying tactic to Royal Assent is next. But it has to get through the House and the Lords tonight

MadYaker · 04-09-2019 04:15PM

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Can Johnson simply ignore the request for an extension?

If the bill gets passed tonight (it will) and he fails to secure a deal by 2 days after the next euro summit (oct 19th) he is compelled to ask for an extension until january 2020, as far as I understand it. Once the bill passes no deal brexit is no longer an option unless the EU refuse the extension. In which case the UK would crash out on oct 31st.

Johnson has no choice but to obey the instructions of parliament.

It's a well constructed bill and gives Johnson a chance to get the deal he claims he wants and claims he has been working towards, if you believe his lies.

is_that_so · 04-09-2019 04:16PM

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Can Johnson simply ignore the request for an extension?

Yes. If he gets the numbers on the 15th October he'll repeal what they're doing today and most likely go for No Deal. If he doesn't others will.

An Ciarraioch · 04-09-2019 04:17PM

Yes, Gerald Howlin was a spin doctor himself, but his visceration of Cummings here is masterly:

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/views/columnists/gerard-howlin/advisers-would-be-well-warned-not-to-stick-their-necks-out-too-far-948160.html

ToBeFrank123 · 04-09-2019 04:19PM

Does any politician or anyone listen to those protesters shouting loudly in the background of every TV interview?

Seems like an awful lot of wasted energy for zero gain.

MadYaker · 04-09-2019 04:19PM

MadYaker wrote: »

If the bill gets passed tonight (it will) and he fails to secure a deal by 2 days after the next euro summit (oct 19th) he is compelled to ask for an extension until january 2020, as far as I understand it. Once the bill passes no deal brexit is no longer an option unless the EU refuse the extension. In which case the UK would crash out on oct 31st.

Johnson has no choice but to obey the instructions of parliament.

It's a well constructed bill and gives Johnson a chance to get the bill he claims he wants and claims he has been working towards, if you believe his lies.

To add to this. Corbyn has said he won't agree to an election unless a no deal exit is off the table.

is_that_so · 04-09-2019 04:26PM

MadYaker wrote: »

To add to this. Corbyn has said he won't agree to an election unless a no deal exit is off the table.

Boris will have no problem agreeing to that as he really wants an election. The campaign will be all about leaving and if he gets numbers "the people have spoken" will trump this promise.

briany · 04-09-2019 04:29PM

Looks like there is a move among Conservative Lords to bog down the forthcoming Brexit extension bill with an absolute rake of amendments (approx. 90) so that it can't make it back to the Commons before the prorogation.

L1011 · 04-09-2019 04:30PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Yes. If he gets the numbers on the 15th October he'll repeal what they're doing today and most likely go for No Deal. If he doesn't others will.

Where is he going to get the numbers from precisely?

is_that_so · 04-09-2019 04:32PM

L1011 wrote: »

Where is he going to get the numbers from precisely?

Well he imagines he will in the election. I wouldn't even bet a euro on the outcome and I reckon the expulsions will come back and bite him.

robinph · 04-09-2019 04:33PM

briany wrote: »

Looks like there is a move among Conservative Lords to bog down the forthcoming Brexit extension bill with an absolute rake of amendments (approx. 90) so that it can't make it back to the Commons before the prorogation.

They were turning up with sleeping bags and changes of clothes this morning prepared to hang around as long as required. There apparently isn't as many rules regarding how many amendments can be brought in the Lords and every thing has to be voted on. Seemed like there also wasn't any rules about when they stop so is just a case of who is prepared to hang around longest into the night.

is_that_so · 04-09-2019 04:35PM

briany wrote: »

Looks like there is a move among Conservative Lords to bog down the forthcoming Brexit extension bill with an absolute rake of amendments (approx. 90) so that it can't make it back to the Commons before the prorogation.

It will, Smith of Labour has tabled a motion for today to head that kind of thing off, but it may delay it a bit.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/04/tory-peers-accused-wrecking-tactics-bill-delay-brexit

L1011 · 04-09-2019 04:35PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Well he imagines he will in the election. I wouldn't even bet a euro on the outcome and I reckon the expulsions will come back and bite him.

He has to get an election called first. He has no ability to do so on his own.

Even if this bill passes and Labour/SNP acede to an election it'll start to run out of time to hold it.

Leonard Hofstadter · 04-09-2019 04:37PM

trellheim wrote: »

Another Superb report from Peter Foster

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1169255491211595777

Rising to Tony Connelly levels of excellence here.

How he's still working for the Telegraph js one of life's greatest mysteries. His abilities and competencies are way beyond that rag of a paper.

is_that_so · 04-09-2019 04:37PM

L1011 wrote: »

He has to get an election called first. He has no ability to do so.

Labour want one once they get the bill sorted so I think it will happen and they'll support his motion. The HoC would wrap up next week anyway through prorogation. The date for an election has been heavily leaked already - Oct 15th

ToBeFrank123 · 04-09-2019 04:42PM

So the extension until January Bill gets passed. Johnson requests an extension from the EU after failing to agree a new deal. Labour and Conservatives agree to an election. Johnson comes back with a clear majority.

And the cycle begins again with Johnson threatening No Deal in January.

robinph · 04-09-2019 04:43PM

is_that_so wrote: »

It will, Smith of Labour has tabled a motion for today to head that kind of thing off, but it may delay it a bit.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/04/tory-peers-accused-wrecking-tactics-bill-delay-brexit

Except the motion to ensure that the new bill is passed before Monday is now the one that the Tory Lords are putting their daft amendments to. They are trying to cause the delay on the vote that is to prevent them causing the delay.

is_that_so · 04-09-2019 04:43PM

Leonard Hofstadter wrote: »

How he's still working for the Telegraph js one of life's greatest mysteries. His abilities and competencies are way beyond that rag of a paper.

In its defence it's never been a rag and it has always had some very good journalism, just very dubious positions on some things to many people.

Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

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