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Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,160 ✭✭✭declanflynn


    Can't see how attacking Boris, Cummings and Mogg with memes is going to change anything. It's happening.
    It's funny


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    skimpydoo wrote: »
    Why is it 43?

    It was +1 before proceedings started and 22 conservatives went over to the opposition, this deducts 22 votes from the government and adds 22 votes to the opposition givong the opposition a majority of 43.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,940 ✭✭✭ballsymchugh


    The magic grandpa could have revitalised himself this evening, esp if they vote to extend the deadline until January 31st. In the last election, he managed to galvanise the labour crowd by not focusing on brexit, and he might just try that again. There are other issues to talk about in an election and Johnson won't be able to keep his schpiel going.
    I don't think labour will win, but the public will likely see Corbyn debate the life out of Johnson. I think Ian Dunt said it perfectly earlier, Johnson is good for the after dinner circuit but is ****e under pressure in proper political debates.

    I'd prefer if it went to referendum, but the Tories will likely lose all their seats in Scotland. The lib dems will pick up a few, esp in and around London. Just remains to be seen if some constituencies would be prepared to vote for the personality before party now. It happened years ago when Martin Bell stood as an independent, but as the rebels are becoming much better known, they could stand as independents and definitely take votes from the party candidate, and *maybe* sneak a win.

    in other words, i haven't a notion.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,650 ✭✭✭cryptocurrency


    To be fair, I'm not even sure what it means anymore. I used to think that I leaned conservative because I was in favour of things like open trade, low taxes and balancing the books and against things like paying more for goods due to excessive taxes and heaps of red tape just to sell in another country.


    It turns out that I was just some beta-cuck libtard commie this whole time. It's a tough world.

    Don't be so hard on yourself. Are you really that into the EU?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,090 ✭✭✭skimpydoo


    Imreoir2 wrote: »
    It was +1 before proceedings started and 22 conservatives went over to the opposition, this deducts 22 votes from the government and adds 22 votes to the opposition givong the opposition a majority of 43.

    Got ya.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,768 ✭✭✭maebee


    It's happening.

    What is happening? Boris's Brexit plan?.

    He was defeated by his own PMs. It's not happening.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,689 ✭✭✭Infini


    skimpydoo wrote: »
    Why is it 43?

    21 lost because Boris kicked them out for having principles and not following the party line. Another lost as a defection to the Lib Dem's thanks to Moggles little stunt yesterday on LBC. Removing those MP's from the Goverment side and adding them to the oppsition means Boris is now 43 MP's short of a Majority. Also Means the Dumbass Unionist Party are dead weight as they are no longer in a position to Swing votes. Karma is a bitch as they say.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    Shelga wrote: »
    So the Tory (Cummings) plan is:

    - have a GE before October 31st (most likely after parliament has forced through legislation stopping no deal)
    -have a purge of current MPs and only run ultra hardline Brexiters in the election
    - Enter a pact with the Brexit Party- Nigel Farage promises not to run alongside the Tories.
    -Get a majority in the HoC and leave without a deal ASAP.

    Sad thing is, I think this has a medium to strong chance of succeeding.

    It does, though if that becomes clear there could be a greater rebellion in conservative ranks over whatever deal Farage demands for standing down the Brexit party challenge. Not to mention that if it does work, Scotland will almost certainly vote for independance.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    Was hearing a rumour that SF are agreeing an arrangement with alliance to target certain DUP seats if there's an election


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,132 ✭✭✭✭Spanish Eyes


    Now I don't want this to sound elitist or anything, but realistically few will have seen JRB live (watching it live is important) on the Commons benches snoozing away while his country's future is being debated.

    Seems to me that it is a two fingured gesture from JRM to everyone else speaking and debating in the Commons. Beneath him to get involved.

    But the reality is, and I am sorry to say it, the vast majority in UK (apart from activists) do not care, do not engage, and just want it all to be over.

    Must be the FPTP system or something. I find people here with PR much more engaged in politics.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,236 ✭✭✭mcmoustache


    It's funny


    And jokes are to be expected in a clown show.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,650 ✭✭✭cryptocurrency


    maebee wrote: »
    What is happening? Boris's Brexit plan?.

    He was defeated by his own PMs. It's not happening.

    The cats on the street knew this would happen today. Don't you follow this?

    They even mentioned the calling of an election last week when this happened and it happened. Corbyn bodyswerve the election and kicks the date to January. The people vs Parliament is set and boris and cummings have set their stage.

    This has been well documented.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,410 ✭✭✭PropJoe10


    Imreoir2 wrote: »
    The only thing I can see happening is the slow collapse of the UK.

    Slow? Rapid, you mean. It's already in meltdown. Scotland to be independent within 2 years.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    Infini wrote: »
    Also Means the Dumbass Unionist Party are dead weight as they are no longer in a position to Swing votes. Karma is a bitch as they say.

    Good point, DUP are useless at this stage, no need to keep them around.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,650 ✭✭✭cryptocurrency


    PropJoe10 wrote: »
    Slow? Rapid, you mean. It's already in meltdown. Scotland to be independent within 2 years.


    There is a lot of comments by people who don't have much of an idea about the UK.

    Scotland is nowhere near independence.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,049 ✭✭✭✭bilston


    Bambi wrote: »
    Was hearing a rumour that SF are agreeing an arrangement with alliance to target certain DUP seats if there's an election

    I hope the Alliance Party think long and hard about any electoral pact with Sinn Fein. They have won over many moderate Unionists. Doing a deal with SF could jeopardize that.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,689 ✭✭✭Infini


    Bambi wrote: »
    Was hearing a rumour that SF are agreeing an arrangement with alliance to target certain DUP seats if there's an election

    Would be nice to get some veracity as to the truth of it BUT it's also a valid tactic if it is. The DUP are wide open on Brexit and their stupidy is out there for anyone to tear into them but people in those area's are very unlikely to vote for SF or SDLP. If they want to dislodge the DUP they need to have it as a strait up contest between the DUP candidate and Alliance and avoid splitting the vote.
    bilston wrote: »
    I hope the Alliance Party think long and hard about any electoral pact with Sinn Fein. They have won over many moderate Unionists. Doing a deal with SF could jeopardize that.

    To be fair they wouldn't be doing a deal as basically a mutual understanding to give people a simple choice between a candidate for a waster organsition and one that wishes to be the voice of reason. If anything this just gives a straitr up choice between Dumbass Unionist candidate and a legitimate unionist candidate.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,980 ✭✭✭Lucy8080


    Infini wrote: »
    It's still not a guaranteed strategy though, the opposition and expecially those in Labour and the Lib Dem's will look to try and maximise the anti brexit vote as much as possible, they'll likely need to adopt a strategy similar to the by election in Wales by not running candidates that split the vote, their only chance at winning is to make sure both Lib Dem's and Labour outnumber the pseudo UKIP group at this point. Scotland is all but nearly guaranteed to be SNP country thanks to all this. Ultimately comes down to the numbers on the day.

    True. But, they now have a real fighting chance of staying in power compared to their chances under May.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    There is a lot of comments by people who don't have much of an idea about the UK.

    Scotland is nowhere near independence.

    It depends, but if you are correct in your opinion and Borris wins a majority and takes the UK out of the EU then it is impossible to see how Scotland stays in the UK.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,521 ✭✭✭bobmalooka


    Lucy8080 wrote: »
    The Tories are back in the game in regards to the next G.E. They have a single issue ticket to bring to all those Brexit voters. Boris " I want a good deal but will settle for no deal if the E.U. try to dictate to old Blighty" Vs. the opposition.

    A few months ago the Tories were dead in the polls. They are rolling the dice,and I can't see Farrage standing in their way when the alternative is Corbyn and the Lib Dems.

    It's the U.k.s version "make america great again". No in depth detail needed for the brexit believers . Boris is now there only man.

    Farage absolutely would stand in the way - brexit end game makes him redundant. He needs to strike a balance between being relevant and getting what he says he wants.

    Farage has publicly been angling for a pact, I suspect to use as a stick to whack the tories if they delay, revoke or passed a deal.
    Brexit party is the elephant in the room and Johnson needed to take them out. I think whatever strategy he was trying to pull off was influenced by trying to eliminate them.

    Now that Johnson and Cummings have snookered themselves my concern is that they may see a pact with Farage as the only option to keep in the game - and hope to neutralize brexit party later.

    So while tonight was a good moment for sensibility, the stakes have gone higher again, it’ll take even more dangerous maneuvers for the leavers to succeed - and the players haven’t been shy of risk to date.

    Even more madness to come I think


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,650 ✭✭✭cryptocurrency


    bilston wrote: »
    I hope the Alliance Party think long and hard about any electoral pact with Sinn Fein. They have won over many moderate Unionists. Doing a deal with SF could jeopardize that.

    More fantasy from the position of the south. This will more likely strike fear into the mlore open and moderate unionists that dilution of the unionists position will not help them and see them retreat back to the usual parties.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,410 ✭✭✭PropJoe10


    There is a lot of comments by people who don't have much of an idea about the UK.

    Scotland is nowhere near independence.

    I have relatives in Scotland and have visited there often. I might know more about it than you seem to think.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,049 ✭✭✭✭bilston


    Shelga wrote: »
    So the Tory (Cummings) plan is:

    - have a GE before October 31st (most likely after parliament has forced through legislation stopping no deal)
    -have a purge of current MPs and only run ultra hardline Brexiters in the election
    - Enter a pact with the Brexit Party- Nigel Farage promises not to run alongside the Tories.
    -Get a majority in the HoC and leave without a deal ASAP.

    Sad thing is, I think this has a medium to strong chance of succeeding.

    The UK electoral system could throw up the bizarre scenario where 55% of the electorate vote for Remain supporting parties (or at the very least anti No Deal parties) and yet we end up with a Tory government filled with Brexiteers and a healthy majority of 30-40 seats, and therefore able to force through a no deal if necessary.

    Although the counter argument to that, is that a clear Tory majority might make a deal more likely as a NI only backstop might get through the Commons.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,768 ✭✭✭maebee


    The cats on the street knew this would happen today. Don't you follow this?

    They even mentioned the calling of an election last week when this happened and it happened. Corbyn bodyswerve the election and kicks the date to January. The people vs Parliament is set and boris and cummings have set their stage.

    This has been well documented.

    Can you please answer my question "What do you mean when you said it's happening"
    What exactly is "happening"?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    bilston wrote: »
    I hope the Alliance Party think long and hard about any electoral pact with Sinn Fein. They have won over many moderate Unionists. Doing a deal with SF could jeopardize that.

    My thinking as well, SF voters are probably not that likely to vote for Alliance anyway, a deal with SF would make Alliance toxic to Unionists and it is among unionists that it has the greatest pull as a protest against the DUP.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,132 ✭✭✭✭Spanish Eyes


    UK will be fine.

    That is because it is ruled by the elites and FPTP system.

    There is no way out of trying to eject anyone really.

    UK version of Democracy in action I suppose. But hopefully in the event of a GE there may be some tactical voting.

    It is generally for nought though at the end of the day, and the Tories know this. So what gives?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,016 ✭✭✭Hulk Hands


    Can you explain. I haven't a clue about gambling on anything.

    The Betfair market, priced to 100% with no bookies margin, is the most accurate odds for this. Historically extremely accurate when the market has high liquidity.

    Deal (or no Brexit) - 2/5 (71%)

    No Deal - 5/2 (29%)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,650 ✭✭✭cryptocurrency


    bilston wrote: »
    The UK electoral system could throw up the bizarre scenario where 55% of the electorate vote for Remain supporting parties (or at the very least anti No Deal parties) and yet we end up with a Tory government filled with Brexiteers and a healthy majority of 30-40 seats, and therefore able to force through a no deal if necessary.

    Although the counter argument to that, is that a clear Tory majority might make a deal more likely as a NI only backstop might get through the Commons.

    With the first past the post system there is huge numbers of leave seats. Tories will win it hands down as Labour are a shambles and the Lib Dems will only pick up the fluffy head in the clouds votes of Bath and the like. Ultra head in the clouds Brighton will be the sole Green seat.

    These are vocal areas and with heavy media presence but no metric for the nation at all.

    Chucka and Soubry are so gonna lose their seats. Chucka might wing it, doubt it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,650 ✭✭✭cryptocurrency


    Hulk Hands wrote: »
    The Betfair market, priced to 100% with no bookies margin, is the most accurate odds for this. Historically extremely accurate when the market has high liquidity.

    Deal (or no Brexit) - 2/5 (71%)

    No Deal - 5/2 (29%)




    Deal without backstop as we all know the backstop is to lock the UK into the level playing field which they know full well is a trap for them.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,236 ✭✭✭mcmoustache


    Don't be so hard on yourself. Are you really that into the EU?


    Well, it brought us from something like India to something like Denmark in 30 years so yeah, I think it's pretty cool. My parents and grandparents grew up in poverty but I didn't and open markets had a lot to do with that. The EU isn't perfect and neither are banks, shops, garages, jobs or hammers but we don't stop using them just because they aren't perfect.


This discussion has been closed.
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