Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

is_that_so · 03-09-2019 04:31PM

BBC now have the government at -1 excluding SF and others - 319/320

lawred2 · 03-09-2019 04:31PM

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Dodds wants the Taoiseach to sit down with unionists to discuss removal of the backstop. He knows full well that the EU is looking after its border with a third country and that can't be settled by the Irish state alone. We're back to the old 'divide and rule' tactic from two years ago. Didn't work then, won't work now.

What is notable from the exchange is Johnson said they are at one on the removal of the backstop, which makes it seem unlikely he'll ditch them and go with an NI only backstop. (Unless his plan is to cobble together something that does the same thing and call it something else. Who knows what the agenda is.)

sit down with unionists?

sure aren't they in the minority in Northern Ireland?

arrogant man.

ZeroThreat · 03-09-2019 04:32PM

SNIP. No more one-liners please.

Panrich · 03-09-2019 04:32PM

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Dodds wants the Taoiseach to sit down with unionists to discuss removal of the backstop. He knows full well that the EU is looking after its border with a third country and that can't be settled by the Irish state alone. We're back to the old 'divide and rule' tactic from two years ago. Didn't work then, won't work now.

What is notable from the exchange is Johnson said they are at one on the removal of the backstop, which makes it seem unlikely he'll ditch them and go with an NI only backstop. (Unless his plan is to cobble together something that does the same thing and call it something else. Who knows what the agenda is.)

Ok Nigel. We can absolutely ditch the backstop as soon as you persuade Boris to keep the UK in the SM/CU.

Leroy42 · 03-09-2019 04:34PM

Johnsons agenda is pretty clear, he is being given far too much credit for some genius plan that there is simply no evidence of.

He is trying to bully the EU into giving up the Backstop, trying to take the Trump approach of threatening and acting crazy on the basis that the other side have some scruples and actually care.

The problem is that the US have the military and industrial strength to do pretty much whatever they want, whilst the UK is facing up against a much larger union. Johnson's gambit is that asking nicely didn't work so they will simply demand on the basis that if he can get them to believe he is crazy enough they will bend.

Hence they are continually dismissing the notion that a crash out will cause anything major in the UK, whilst simultaneously claiming a a crash out will cause so much havok in the EU that they must capitulate.

And that is it. Not other plan,nothing else but a massive bluff to try to get out of this mess. The thinking being that at the very least they can then blame the EU for all the, obvious, problems should they crash out. So, to Johnson, it is a win-win or at least no lose sitation.

awec · 03-09-2019 04:36PM

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Dodds wants the Taoiseach to sit down with unionists to discuss removal of the backstop. He knows full well that the EU is looking after its border with a third country and that can't be settled by the Irish state alone. We're back to the old 'divide and rule' tactic from two years ago. Didn't work then, won't work now.

What is notable from the exchange is Johnson said they are at one on the removal of the backstop, which makes it seem unlikely he'll ditch them and go with an NI only backstop. (Unless his plan is to cobble together something that does the same thing and call it something else. Who knows what the agenda is.)

I think the Tories genuinely have concerns about an election right now, and want to keep the DUP on board. They are getting attacked from both sides, remainers on their left, Brexit party on their right.

As far as they are concerned, no point coming out for the backstop and removing your last ally from the house.

Panrich · 03-09-2019 04:39PM

awec wrote: »

I think the Tories genuinely have concerns about an election right now, and want to keep the DUP on board. They are getting attacked from both sides, remainers on their left, Brexit party on their right.

As far as they are concerned, no point coming out for the backstop and removing your last ally from the house.

I’m not 100% sure you can even put the Brexit party to the right of this mob.

FrancieBrady · 03-09-2019 04:40PM

awec wrote: »

I think the Tories genuinely have concerns about an election right now, and want to keep the DUP on board. They are getting attacked from both sides, remainers on their left, Brexit party on their right.

As far as they are concerned, no point coming out for the backstop and removing your last ally from the house.

Even with the DUP, the government doesn't have a majority anymore.

prawnsambo · 03-09-2019 04:41PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Even with the DUP, the government doesn't have a majority anymore.

The market seems to like the idea.

LoughNeagh2017 · 03-09-2019 04:42PM

I just sit back and enjoy the storm that I helped create by voting to leave, I voted to leave because of my views on immigration but I never thought the final result would have been leave. Ulsters a miserable hole anyway, hopefully I have helped make it even more miserable for our future generations.

InTheShadows · 03-09-2019 04:46PM

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Another good thread (maybe confirmation bias for myself) on the origin of this mess:

https://twitter.com/FFbpe/status/1168264347900108800?s=20

All this matters not a jot. The UK is leaving the EU in a few weeks. Both sides had their opportunities to make their case to the UK electorate and remain lost.

awec · 03-09-2019 04:49PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Even with the DUP, the government doesn't have a majority anymore.

Right, but so long as the tories remain against the backstop that is 10mps they can count on to effectively vote with them.

They may also see the DUP as a necessary ally in any future parliament if there is a GE.

BarryD2 · 03-09-2019 04:50PM

Water John wrote: »

Johnson will be coming to Dublin to blame Varadkar. That's his only purpose.

He's just aiming to drag Leo into the web he's spinning for the HoC. Bit like a drowning man is our Boris, will cling on where he can and drag down anyone who gets too close. Or he might just survive and send the others to the bottom.

farmchoice · 03-09-2019 04:50PM

InTheShadows wrote: »

All this matters not a jot. The UK is leaving the EU in a few weeks. Both sides had their opportunities to make their case to the UK electorate and remain lost.

if this move by the Opposition works out and it looks like it very well might then there is next to no chance of the UK leaving on 31st of october.

Strazdas · 03-09-2019 04:55PM

Anna Soubry claims that Johnson rang the editor of the Telegraph today to tell him off for publishing the Peter Foster story (not because it was untrue, just for publishing it).

FrancieBrady · 03-09-2019 04:57PM

InTheShadows wrote: »

All this matters not a jot. The UK is leaving the EU in a few weeks. Both sides had their opportunities to make their case to the UK electorate and remain lost.

It's looking like Boris will have to break the law if he is going to fulfill his 'promise'.

Joe_ Public · 03-09-2019 04:58PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Anna Soubry claims that Johnson rang the editor of the Telegraph today to tell him off for publishing the Peter Foster story (not because it was untrue, just for publishing it).

Heard that exchange in the hoc. Johnson denied it, naturally enough, but what struck me was him saying "i didnt ring any journalist" to discuss any matter today which leaves open the possibility that it wasnt necessarily Johnson that initiated the call.

Kermit.de.frog · 03-09-2019 04:59PM

Noticed this as well...

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1168915755582312448

Stop moaning ffs · 03-09-2019 05:00PM

The chatter on twitter is there’s going to be more defections

trellheim · 03-09-2019 05:00PM

OH FK

Breaking: EU member states have been told by the European Commission Task Force that the UK under Boris Johnson is rengeging on its commitments to protect the all-Ireland economy and meaningful North-South cooperation, as enshinred in the Joint Report of December 2017 1/

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1168915519933734912

oh shee

jm08 · 03-09-2019 05:02PM

lawred2 wrote: »

sit down with unionists?

sure aren't they in the minority in Northern Ireland?

arrogant man.

The DUP are changing their tune now. Back just after the referendum, Enda Kenny tried to get an all-Ireland Brexit task force going and Arlene said no thanks, the North South council could deal with it!

ToBeFrank123 · 03-09-2019 05:06PM

Loss of working majority should mean inevitable election.

But with FTPA, is it possible Labour could leave government in situ for a few more months to suffer defeat after defeat in Conmons votes?

No wonder Johnson was so keen to suspend Parliament.

What's his next move?

Penn · 03-09-2019 05:10PM

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Loss of working majority should mean inevitable election.

But with FTPA, is it possible Labour could leave government in situ for a few more months to suffer defeat after defeat in Conmons votes?

No wonder Johnson was so keen to suspend Parliament.

What's his next move?

I almost hope that is what happens; that the opposition parties stop No Deal from happening, but prevent an election meaning the Tories still have to be the ones to actually deal with what happens next.

But Corbyn will only see this as his best chance to be PM and he'll go for it.

declanflynn · 03-09-2019 05:12PM

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Loss of working majority should mean inevitable election.

But with FTPA, is it possible Labour could leave government in situ for a few more months to suffer defeat after defeat in Conmons votes?

No wonder Johnson was so keen to suspend Parliament.

What's his next move?

He's going to come under more pressure, once a few Tory rebels jump ship then there will be a steady stream towords the exit door

Nody · 03-09-2019 05:13PM

trellheim wrote: »

OH FK

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1168915519933734912

oh shee

Why are you surprised? A no deal brexit would do exactly that and since that's the course he's heading for he'd naturally break the deal as well accordingly. That's nothing new there; that's simply EU saying "Yea, looks like it will most likely be a crash out so prepare for it oh and here's another example of UK going back on their word if you were unsure about who's the bad guy".

trellheim · 03-09-2019 05:14PM

Why ? Because its rare for the EU to be so direct and open

joe40 · 03-09-2019 05:14PM

Penn wrote: »

I almost hope that is what happens; that the opposition parties stop No Deal from happening, but prevent an election meaning the Tories still have to be the ones to actually deal with what happens next.

But Corbyn will only see this as his best chance to be PM and he'll go for it.

So could we have the situation where Boris is prevented from a "no deal" due to legislation, but also unable to call an election due to lack of support in commons.
Is that a possibility, seems to me it would be a good outcome for us but will cause outrage and trouble among a large section in Britain.

declanflynn · 03-09-2019 05:17PM

joe40 wrote: »

Penn wrote: »

I almost hope that is what happens; that the opposition parties stop No Deal from happening, but prevent an election meaning the Tories still have to be the ones to actually deal with what happens next.

But Corbyn will only see this as his best chance to be PM and he'll go for it.

So could we have the situation where Boris is prevented from a "no deal" due to legislation, but also unable to call an election due to lack of support in commons.
Is that a possibility, seems to me it would be a good outcome for us but will cause outrage and trouble among a large section in Britain.

That would be a great outcome the dup and the remaining tories would eat one another

Nody · 03-09-2019 05:23PM

EU screwing over Ireland (again) as Brexiteers have been saying for years...

Source here.

Brussels is considering designating a no-deal Brexit as a disaster comparable to an earthquake or heavy flooding for the purposes of allocating emergency aid.

The proposal would see cash from the bloc's Solidarity Fund handed to heavily-hit countries like Ireland to deal with the fallout of UK policy.

Officials behind the scenes are working on the plan, which would require the approval of the European Parliament and member states.

The cash would help any affected member states deal with the significant disruption the bloc is supposed to cause.

Damn you EU; damn you to hell! How dare you back stab Ireland like this!!1 oh wait...

Penn · 03-09-2019 05:24PM

joe40 wrote: »

So could we have the situation where Boris is prevented from a "no deal" due to legislation, but also unable to call an election due to lack of support in commons.
Is that a possibility, seems to me it would be a good outcome for us but will cause outrage and trouble among a large section in Britain.

I think so. Because of the Fixed Term Parliament Act he needs a 2/3 majority parliament vote to call an election, or for the opposition to call a vote of no confidence. If they don't do either, I don't think he can call an election. So if they block No Deal, he'll either have to ask the EU for another extension or he'll have to go against Parliament and do nothing, thereby leaving with No Deal by default (but I don't know what the ramifications are for the government if that happens).

Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

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