Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Stop moaning ffs · 03-09-2019 02:28PM

VinLieger wrote: »

I'd agree and i don't think he's up to keeping up with any of it.

Whatever way it shakes out it’s likely we’re going to witness the end of the DUPs holding the reigns.
I’d settle for that no matter the outcome.

An Ciarraioch · 03-09-2019 02:33PM

Peter Foster has just finished an excellent thread contrasting Irish and British perspectives on the Border:

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1168877012909510656

ArmaniJeanss · 03-09-2019 02:36PM

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Is there to be a vote today and what time is it to be at?

The Guardian Live is always handy for a 'what happens in the next few hours' timetable, although events can often overtake it.

Guardian wrote:

2.30pm: Dominic Raab takes Foreign Office questions.

3.30pm: Boris Johnson gives a statement on the G7. Commons statements normally run for about an hour, but John Bercow, the Speaker, likes to call all MPs who want to ask a question, and he regularly lets questions to the PM run for two hours or more. But assuming they wrap up after two hours, that takes us to …

5.30pm?: Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, gives a statement on no-deal Brexit preparations.

6.30pm?: Gavin Williamson, the education secretary, gives a statement on education funding.

7.30pm?: Chris Philp moves a motion under the 10-minute rule for a bill on clean air. (Although called a 10-minute rule bill, the debate can last up to 20 minute, although normally these speeches last about five minutes.)

7.35pm?: Sir Oliver Letwin submits a request for an SO24 (standing order 24) emergency debate on a no-deal Brexit. After a very short speech, Bercow will either allow or disallow the debate. No one expects him to say no.

7.40pm?: MPs begin the debate on the SO24 motion. It can run for up to three hours, or until 10pm - whichever comes first.

10pm?: MPs vote on the motion.

robinph · 03-09-2019 02:43PM

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

The Guardian Live is always handy for a 'what happens in the next few hours' timetable, although events can often overtake it.

So if Johnson can drag out his Q&A session for long enough the other business of the day will mean they are out of time to get the SO24 item dealt with before 10pm.

Have to assume that Bercow will keep things under control and moving along nicely.

BarryD2 · 03-09-2019 02:43PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

My heads swimming trying to keep up with what Jeremy says at this stage.
I’d say we’re in for a breakneck speed series of events this evening.

Well not exactly signs of an united front opposing Boris. He could run rings around them yet.

Things also bleak for Stormont, little likelihood of much happening there until Brexit is sorted one way or another. So more direct rule setting in.

Did you hear earlier about the directive requiring GB stickers on all UK cars travelling outside UK, inc those of NI? Maybe the parties up there will finally realise that pulling the plug a couple of years wasn't the greatest idea..

Water John · 03-09-2019 02:43PM

SO24 could also happen after Gove's speech I think.

Stop moaning ffs · 03-09-2019 02:48PM

Just in time. Pitching my hopes on the rebel alliance

https://twitter.com/danielhewittitv/status/1168855169750188034?s=21

Igotadose · 03-09-2019 02:51PM

BarryD2 wrote: »

Things also bleak for Stormont, little likelihood of much happening there until Brexit is sorted one way or another. So more direct rule setting in.

If Stormont doesn't re-convene, doesn't that mean the legislation due to go into effect in a few weeks will in fact go into effect? Decriminalize abortion in NI finally?

Direct rule is bad, but decriminalizing abortion is a big win for NI.

Water John · 03-09-2019 02:52PM

Cummings and Johnson are taking on some conservative heavyweights. That rump has the ability to run Govn't on its own.

Rjd2 · 03-09-2019 02:54PM

Water John wrote: »

With FPTP, one really has to analyse each constituency simply keeping the national trend in the back of your head.
Trying to get how many seats each of the parties get from a national poll alone would have a major, margin of error IWT.

BTW wouldn't see Corbyn stepping aside, unless someone with similar views to himself was made PM. IWT his convictions are more important to him, than his ego. Despite the majority of the media being against him, he is a good campaigner in a GE.

Who knows?

Corbyn for all his flaws is a fine campaigner and I could understand his annoyance if Labour do well at been asked to step aside.

If Brexit was not an issue, I actually think Swinson would rather go into power with Boris if he was channeling his one nation esque toryism, but alas Brexit.

Depends on the numbers really.

prawnsambo · 03-09-2019 03:00PM

Water John wrote: »

Cummings and Johnson are taking on some conservative heavyweights. That rump has the ability to run Govn't on its own.

Dominic Grieve being one of them. A very clever man with huge experience of the law. This little snippet gives an idea of what he's like.

Water John · 03-09-2019 03:00PM

Hammond has already been selected by his constituency, last night, keep up.

VinLieger · 03-09-2019 03:04PM

Mike Pence asking Leo and the EU to negotiate in "Good Faith" with Boris Johnson.......

https://www.thejournal.ie/mike-pence-varadkar-4793734-Sep2019/

Nody · 03-09-2019 03:07PM

20silkcut wrote: »

I can’t see much wrong in their direct dealings with the UK over Brexit but they uncharacteristically and very hastily signed the mercosur trade deal, overwhelming probability this was due to the brexit situation.
And already it looks like a bad decision.

More likely it's due to Trump and his anti FTA approach; same with the Japan deal etc.

robinph · 03-09-2019 03:07PM

Limpy wrote: »

Hammond was always a remainer. Nothing new there. Hopefully he gets the boot and a GE is called.

Hammonds local Conservative association re-approved him to stand for them in the next election yesterday, and said to Johnson to bring it on if he wanted to try and remove him as their candidate.

54and56 · 03-09-2019 03:13PM

12 page leaked UK Govt document dated last week highlighting the inadequacies of the "Alternative Arrangements" - https://www.politico.eu/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/AA-N-Ireland-doc-lobby.pdf

VinLieger · 03-09-2019 03:22PM

robinph wrote: »

Hammonds local Conservative association re-approved him to stand for them in the next election yesterday, and said to Johnson to bring it on if he wanted to try and remove him as their candidate.

Interesting to see a local conservative association fighting back in that way, any stuff ive heard about the grassroots of the party is its been taken over by no deal hard brexiteers

Kermit.de.frog · 03-09-2019 03:28PM

Surprising by Pence. Not very diplomatic to take a dump on your host's lawn.

Very clear message for Varadkar there. The current US administration is all out for Brexit and Johnson.

Given Trump and Pence are probably gone in 2020 i'm not sure it matters much.

prawnsambo · 03-09-2019 03:30PM

54and56 wrote: »

12 page leaked UK Govt document dated last week highlighting the inadequacies of the "Alternative Arrangements" - https://www.politico.eu/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/AA-N-Ireland-doc-lobby.pdf

Anyone with half a brain reading that would just tell them to stop wasting money and close it down. Every single 'solution' holed below the water line. Irretrievably.

Not that we didn't know that already.

ancapailldorcha · 03-09-2019 03:34PM

Serious discussion only please. Witticisms about the VP are not welcome here.

prawnsambo · 03-09-2019 03:40PM

And drama ensues. Strange days indeed.

Zubeneschamali · 03-09-2019 03:41PM

Seems there is a realistic chance that the Government can torpedo the Benn bill, as it steps over a line and dictates how the PM must act in an international negotiation, a matter of Royal Prerogative, and Boris would have to give the Queen's Consent to that.

So I think they are back to a needing a VoNC and caretaker PM to get an extension.

LeinsterDub · 03-09-2019 03:41PM

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1168896364648062976

The government's majority becomes - 1. Looks like GE time!

briany · 03-09-2019 03:46PM

Referring to the post just deleted, I wouldn't put it past the current British administration to clash with the WTO after a no-deal Brexit if they follow through on their claim their side of the Irish border will be left open. You can make the same type of claims against the WTO as you would against the EU. It's a supranational organisation that bosses the UK around. What right has it got? The UK should form its own trade organisation and convince Commonwealth countries to join. The WTO needs the UK more than the UK needs the WTO. etc. etc.

prawnsambo · 03-09-2019 03:48PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1168896364648062976

The government's majority becomes - 1. Looks like GE time!

I think it's zero unless I missed another defection?

Shelga · 03-09-2019 03:54PM

Does he have to call a GE now that he’s lost his majority?

I know it’s not up to Johnson himself to call the GE otherwise- but does this loss change things and force an election?

McMurphy · 03-09-2019 03:54PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

I think it's zero unless I missed another defection?

Think they meant that the govt lost its majority of one by -1.

I can't keep up with things over there anymore

VinLieger · 03-09-2019 03:54PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

I think it's zero unless I missed another defection?

No a majority of 1 becomes -1 as he's moving directly to an opposition party so its subtracting from the government and adding immediately to the opposition

prawnsambo · 03-09-2019 03:55PM

Shelga wrote: »

Does he have to call a GE now that he’s lost his majority?

I know it’s not up to Johnson himself to call the GE otherwise- but does this loss change things and force an election?

Still has to lose a vote of no confidence really. Getting more likely though.

VinLieger · 03-09-2019 03:56PM

Shelga wrote: »

Does he have to call a GE now that he’s lost his majority?

I know it’s not up to Johnson himself to call the GE otherwise- but does this loss change things and force an election?

Is his majority also counting the labour rebels like Hoey?

Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

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