Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Leroy42 · 03-09-2019 01:24PM

trellheim wrote: »

As Home Sec TM was consistently strong on immigration control.

Really? What did she actually do to limit immigration?

I agree she was very vocal about it, and made it out to be a terrible blight on the UK, but I don't remember her bringing forward many practicle proposals to reduce the numbers.

lawred2 · 03-09-2019 01:24PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Presumably he means that No deal is now the Irish government's central scenario, and that's what they are planning for.

Sure anyone with two brain cells would expect that to be the government's working position! That's the default path we're on.

Politicians know well the power of words. 'Come clean' is used with the sole purpose of bringing people to some conclusion that the government are engaging in some sort of nefarious underhanded activity.

'Come clean' clearly has negative connotations.

prawnsambo · 03-09-2019 01:26PM

Enzokk wrote: »

I know, it doesn't outright state that. That is the debates we have had on here from time to time and it is true that it doesn't. The argument against that is that it was signed at a time that NI and Ireland were both in the EU at the time and thus there wasn't really a need to state that both need to stay in the EU or aligned to the rules to keep the status quo going. I do see the argument of the other side but don't think it holds any water.

But the case for getting rid of the ECHR is clear. You cannot do it without ripping up the GFA, there is no gray area here, and that is my point.

It's a long time ago, so my memory is hazy, but wasn't there an undertaking made by the EU that no changes would be made to the treaties that would affect the GFA?

Sam Russell · 03-09-2019 01:28PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

That lib dem constituency in Northern Scotland is sort of astonishing. Wasn’t aware of them having much traction in Scotland. Would have thought the further north in Scotland you went the bigger the SNP support you’d have

SNP vote is strengthened by the large distance Scotland is from London both physically and politically. The far north of Scotland is a long way from Edinburgh both physically and politically, hence their dislike of SNP..

Enzokk · 03-09-2019 01:28PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Really? What did she actually do to limit immigration?

I agree she was very vocal about it, and made it out to be a terrible blight on the UK, but I don't remember her bringing forward many practicle proposals to reduce the numbers.

You forget the hostile environment and the Windrush scandal. Without May and her policies in the Home Office it would not have happened.

Rjd2 · 03-09-2019 01:29PM

10000maniacs wrote: »

Yes you are right, but Johnson will be run out of Downing Street by the pressures of a no deal Brexit in short order. He will win the election albeit with another hung Parliament and I will give him 6 months after that.

I don't see how he gets the numbers next time. Some say he will double down on Brexit, but May did similar and maxed out the leave vote and she did not have Farage to worry about. They will be wiped out in Scotland also.

Then you look at how vulnerable they are in remain strongholds, Greening resigned earlier it may be principle but she probably knows she is ****ed next time round.

https://twitter.com/josephmdurso/status/1168771137754583040

Look at that thread and then ask yourself can he get the leave vote out more than May did to compensate....I dunno ....it will be really hard.

Corbyn for all his flaws is actually a good campaigner as 2017 proved.

I think we get a Labour/SNP/Lib Dem style alliance and possibly Lib Dems may ask Corbyn to step down. I don't think he would mind tbh, he is old and the Corbynites control a lot of the party anyhow.

Would the SNP want an indy vote? Maybe depending on how skinny the numbers were..

Leroy42 · 03-09-2019 01:32PM

Enzokk wrote: »

You forget the hostile environment and the Windrush scandal. Without May and her policies in the Home Office it would not have happened.

I certainly haven't forgotten either of those, but apart from being mean spirited, did they have any real effect on immigration?

It wasn't a change in policy per se, it was simply targeting those she felt she could get away with it.

But in practical terms it had no material impact on the level of immigration.

Like I said, she spoke about it a lot, but never actually did anything that would do anything about it.

Water John · 03-09-2019 01:36PM

With FPTP, one really has to analyse each constituency simply keeping the national trend in the back of your head.
Trying to get how many seats each of the parties get from a national poll alone would have a major, margin of error IWT.

BTW wouldn't see Corbyn stepping aside, unless someone with similar views to himself was made PM. IWT his convictions are more important to him, than his ego. Despite the majority of the media being against him, he is a good campaigner in a GE.

Sam Russell · 03-09-2019 01:37PM

darem93 wrote: »

Yeah Orkney and Shetland vote for the Lib Dems religiously. I think there was a previous MP there who was very popular and they've voted Lib Dem since. It also happens to be one of the most anti-independence constituencies too, which I still don't really understand.

Jo Grimond was MP for Orkney from 1950 to 1983.

is_that_so · 03-09-2019 01:37PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think FF might get a slap they were not expecting if they caused an election now. Michael is just doing a 'look at me' run.

Yeah, there is an element of don't forget about us holding the government to account. He's signed up till Spring so really just getting warmed up for Tuesday fortnight.

boggerman1 · 03-09-2019 01:38PM

CelticRambler wrote: »

I'm nearly sure someone, somewhere, at some point earlier in the year, said that the queues would be 80 miles - so see: they are taking steps to mitigate the disruption!

Goes to show that when the idiot grayling staged that mock system last yr they hadn't a clue with only 80 trucks turning up .they deserve everything that is coming to them

Igotadose · 03-09-2019 01:38PM

Watched 10 minutes yesterday of whatever Labour conference Corbyn was at. Man, that guy can't make a speech. First off, his eyeglasses kept slipping down, not good. Secondly, he mumbles. Surely there's someone more dynamic and less 'creepy ex-Professor' than he to drive their Party? As much blame as the Tories will get for this sh1tshower of Brexit, about as much should go to him. He should simply stand up and say Remain. Probably the main reason Brexit's gone anywhere is Corbyn. No viable opposition.

MrMusician18 · 03-09-2019 01:41PM

lawred2 wrote: »

Sure anyone with two brain cells would expect that to be the government's working position! That's the default path we're on.

Politicians know well the power of words. 'Come clean' is used with the sole purpose of bringing people to some conclusion that the government are engaging in some sort of nefarious underhanded activity.

'Come clean' clearly has negative connotations.

We all know that, the same way we know they're will be border infrastructure if they're is no deal. Unsaid but understood by all.

What Martin wants the government to do (but rightly won't do) is publically acknowledge this reality. FF needs to be saying something to keep itself in the news

swampgas · 03-09-2019 01:44PM

newport2 wrote: »

Excellent article by Ivan Rogers about the reality of a no-deal brexit here, well worth a read

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/09/ivan-rogers-the-realities-of-a-no-deal-brexit/

I fundamentally disagree with him on this point:

Ivan Rogers wrote:

It would also mark both a UK government failure and an EU failure.

It takes two for a negotiation to fail.

Actually, it takes two for a negotiation to succeed. And even then, only if there is enough common ground between them.

Any one party can wreck a negotiation, no matter how reasonable the other(s) may be.

Maybe the EU could have played it differently (isn't hindsight wonderful), but ultimately the responsibility for the current debacle is almost 100% with the UK.

VinLieger · 03-09-2019 01:46PM

swampgas wrote: »

I fundamentally disagree with him on this point:

Actually, it takes two for a negotiation to succeed. And even then, only if there is enough common ground between them.

Any one party can wreck a negotiation, no matter how reasonable the other(s) may be.

Maybe the EU could have played it differently (isn't hindsight wonderful), but ultimately the resposnsibility for the current debacle is almost 100% with the UK.

Agreed, that sturck me as being very generous to the UK side

Sam Russell · 03-09-2019 01:49PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

We all know that, the same way we know they're will be border infrastructure if they're is no deal. Unsaid but understood by all.

To avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland in the event of a hard deal, the UK need to announce that SPS checks at Larne (and Belfast) will be 100% and will continue, plus they will enforce the SM rules for agriculture in NI, plus they will not enforce any tariffs between NI and Ireland.

That would allow the milk lorries to continue collecting milk, and pigs, sheep, and cattle to go on their holidays.

The only other requirement is related to VAT which is not specifically a border issue, but is.

Stop moaning ffs · 03-09-2019 01:55PM

So the different factions against no deal can’t get it together.
Two completely different messages and different directions

https://twitter.com/chukaumunna/status/1168868344667267074?s=21

https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1168867247227637762?s=21

CelticRambler · 03-09-2019 01:58PM

swampgas wrote: »

I fundamentally disagree with him on this point:

Actually, it takes two for a negotiation to succeed. And even then, only if there is enough common ground between them.

Any one party can wreck a negotiation, no matter how reasonable the other(s) may be.

Thank you for that! I read the paragraph and knew there was something wrong with the statement, but couldn't put my finger on it. :rolleyes:

But you're absolutely right, and Ivan Rogers is wrong on that point. Donald Trump is doing a great job at showing how one party can wreck years of careful, constructive, reasonable negotiations.

Of course what the Brexiters don't ever mention is that they've got things easy at the moment, in that they're only dealing with a qualified majority of the EU member states, essentially one single party. If/when they tip over the edge, then come back for a deal - mini or maxi - they'll need the agreement of 27 different parties.

newport2 · 03-09-2019 02:01PM

VinLieger wrote: »

Agreed, that sturck me as being very generous to the UK side

Well he is a former UK civil servant, so probably hard for him not to be a bit biased!

That said, I've had to question myself on how squeaky clean the EU has been on this. I've kind of taken the simplistic stance that the EU is 100% right and the UK is 100% wrong on this fiasco when I'm looking at it, which realistically is never true. While I think the vast majority of blame lies with the UK, I'm sure things were a little different behind the scenes from how most people - myself included - perceived them to be.

First Up · 03-09-2019 02:06PM

newport2 wrote: »

Well he is a former UK civil servant, so probably hard for him not to be a bit biased!

That said, I've had to question myself on how squeaky clean the EU has been on this. I've kind of taken the simplistic stance that the EU is 100% right and the UK is 100% wrong on this fiasco when I'm looking at it, which realistically is never true. While I think the vast majority of blame lies with the UK, I'm sure things were a little different behind the scenes from how most people - myself included - perceived them to be.

The recent "fly on the wall" TV programmes featuring Michel Barnier and Guy Verhofstadt gave an accurate insight into how all this is viewed from Brussels.

But the essential point is that the EU is a rules based organisation and - guess what - it is playing by the rules (all of them.)

20silkcut · 03-09-2019 02:08PM

newport2 wrote: »

Well he is a former UK civil servant, so probably hard for him not to be a bit biased!

That said, I've had to question myself on how squeaky clean the EU has been on this. I've kind of taken the simplistic stance that the EU is 100% right and the UK is 100% wrong on this fiasco when I'm looking at it, which realistically is never true. While I think the vast majority of blame lies with the UK, I'm sure things were a little different behind the scenes from how most people - myself included - perceived them to be.

I can’t see much wrong in their direct dealings with the UK over Brexit but they uncharacteristically and very hastily signed the mercosur trade deal, overwhelming probability this was due to the brexit situation.
And already it looks like a bad decision.

Zubeneschamali · 03-09-2019 02:09PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

So the different factions against no deal can’t get it together. Two completely different messages and different directions

No, they are the same direction. First, secure against no deal. Then, when that is squared away, election.

No election if it means Parliament is dissolved allowing Brexit to happen.

Corbyn stated this clearly in his speech yesterday:
https://labour.org.uk/press/29461/

Strazdas · 03-09-2019 02:10PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

So the different factions against no deal can’t get it together.
Two completely different messages and different directions

https://twitter.com/chukaumunna/status/1168868344667267074?s=21

https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1168867247227637762?s=21

Corbyn explicitly says he will block a GE before October 31. However, if there is an EU extension and No Deal has been halted, then he has no problem with a GE.

Kermit.de.frog · 03-09-2019 02:12PM

The UK will have had more governments than Italy since 2016 if Boris has to call time today or tomorrow.

Let that sink in...

prawnsambo · 03-09-2019 02:13PM

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Is there to be a vote today and what time is it to be at?

They're usually after the debate, which is due around 6:30pm. Expected to last three hours and voting at 9:30 or 10:00.

Zubeneschamali · 03-09-2019 02:14PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Corbyn explicitly says he will block a GE before October 31. However, if there is an EU extension and No Deal has been halted, then he has no problem with a GE.

And the Lib Dems only have a problem with an election if it would kibosh our ability to stop a No Deal Brexit, so same message.

CelticRambler · 03-09-2019 02:20PM

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Is there to be a vote today and what time is it to be at?

Some time around/after 9pm London time.

Just looking at Sky's breakdown of the votes Johnson needs to force an election, and they are including the DUP's 10 MPs on his side, on the basis of the C&S agreement. Not sure that support can be guaranteed - while the Tories can go into the election with the hope and a plan to gain seats, the best the DUP can hope for is to hang on to what they've got.

The polls above suggest that won't be the case, but if they support Johnson's bid to win a majority, they're effectively giving up the only leverage they have in Westminster, possibly (probably) never to have that kind of influence ever again. And that's without contemplating the risk that Johnson's gamble will fail and a non-Tory government will cut NI off for the sake of "the mainland".

VinLieger · 03-09-2019 02:21PM

Oooof watching Sky News and Kay Burley, who I normally hate, was straight to the point with this Labour MP thats on "if you had a stronger leader you would be in power"

Stop moaning ffs · 03-09-2019 02:22PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Corbyn explicitly says he will block a GE before October 31. However, if there is an EU extension and No Deal has been halted, then he has no problem with a GE.

My heads swimming trying to keep up with what Jeremy says at this stage.
I’d say we’re in for a breakneck speed series of events this evening.

VinLieger · 03-09-2019 02:26PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

My heads swimming trying to keep up with what Jeremy says at this stage.
I’d say we’re in for a breakneck speed series of events this evening.

I'd agree and i don't think he's up to keeping up with any of it.

Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

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