Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmagenda/OP190903so24.pdf


Proposal for S024 debate ... we will find out very shortly if Bercow will go for it ...

The Daily Mail have got the latest Yellowhammer report, the one Gove was going to release but pulled yesterday in case it would cause alarm. It has the usual food, medicine and fuel shortages, civil unrest, travel delays, but on a subject we were discussing upthread, trucks queuing to Dover, it has the remarkable statement:

But the official assessment forecasts disruption at the Channel ports, with lorries queuing for up to two-and-a-half days to deal with new customs controls in France. It predicts that queues could stretch for more than 60 miles, blocking the M25 at the Dartford Crossing, ‘which would disrupt fuel supply in London and the South East’.

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

In addition, she made several other mistakes. The go home vans seem to serve no purpose to me save for shoring up her anti-FoM credentials to people who were always going to betray her when it suited them or when the fog began to lift from Brexit. She also afforded far too much power to her "chiefs", Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill who came to be despised and not without reason.

The go home vans she sent out predate Brexit. They weren't anything to do with shoring up her anti-FoM credentials. They were there because she wanted them there. She wanted them there because pursuing a xenophobic agenda has been high on her priority list for her entire career, irrespective of Brexit.

Maybe that was against her own judgement and on the advice of Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill, it's impossible to know what went on behind closed doors, but ultimately her decisions fall on her.

They were definitely nothing to do with appeasing Brexiters though, as that wasn't even a demographic that existed at the time. It's arguable that her career as home secretary, consistently putting anti-immigrant rhetoric on the agenda, had a lot to do with creating the conditions that allowed for the leave vote.

In relation to Alex Andreou’s tweet, this line that Remainers are to blame for the current situation is beyond ridiculous, and anyone with half a brain could see that.

I lived in the UK in 2016 and I voted Remain. I was saddened by the result of the referendum, but I refused to sign the petition that was going around in the days after, calling for a second vote. I thought it smacked of being bad losers and unwilling to accept democracy. I naively assumed that parliament would reach some agreement on how to leave, because that’s what responsible nations do.

Now it’s over 3 years later, and no version of Brexit is available which doesn’t damage the country. Because none exists. If the hardline Brexiters had voted for May’s deal, they would have left the EU 6 months ago. They didn’t because they know it’s rubbish.

How they have managed to convince people that crashing out is actually the One True Brexit, rather than a complete and utter failure to achieve anything at all, is absolutely incredible. And if Farage, who constantly bleats on about ‘the undemocratic treaty’ had actually read article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty before June 2016, he would know that it specifically says that withdrawal will be negotiated, and a future framework agreed- “the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union.”

They did exactly what the Lisbon treaty said- and now he’s convinced everyone that they’ve been forced to agree terms of withdrawal rather than go straight into a free trade agreement.

I had a particularly ugly text exchange with a former Brexiter colleague about it all the other day, where he said he couldn’t give a **** about Northern Ireland- it’s really, really hard not to think- let them burn. Let their factories close, let their financial services flee, let hundreds of thousands lose their jobs- who cares anymore. They have become an ugly, ugly nation.

quokula wrote: »

Agree with this totally, it's amazing the extent to which she's been pushed as an arch remainer when she set out so many red lines to go for the hardest Brexit possible (without reneging on things like the Good Friday agreement and existing commitments)

During the referendum the only real argument she gave for remain was basically "sure, I hate Europeans too, but we need the treaties to be able to deport people effectively and to be obstructive in EU parliament"



Here's some actual full word for word quotes from her big pro-remain speech:

I find it astonishing that the Home Secretary didn't know that the ECHR is pivotal to the Good Friday Agreement. This isn't even debatable, like when we have had discussions that the GFA doesn't state that NI has to be in the EU. There is no spirit when it comes to this argument.

Theresa May wrote:

The ECHR can bind the hands of Parliament, adds nothing to our prosperity, makes us less secure by preventing the deportation of dangerous foreign nationals – and does nothing to change the attitudes of governments like Russia’s when it comes to human rights. So regardless of the EU referendum, my view is this. If we want to reform human rights laws in this country, it isn’t the EU we should leave but the ECHR and the jurisdiction of its Court.

Good Friday agreement,

United Kingdom Legislation
2. The British Government will complete incorporation into Northern
Ireland law of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), with
direct access to the courts, and remedies for breach of the Convention,
including power for the courts to overrule Assembly legislation on
grounds of inconsistency.

Good Friday Agreement

So May was so blinded by her dislike of the ECHR she was willing to break an international treaty to get rid of it, or like most politicians she wasn't aware of what she was proposing. Doesn't inspire confidence when your Home Secretary is so uninformed, never mind that she was able to rise to the top job.

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

That lib dem constituency in Northern Scotland is sort of astonishing. Wasn’t aware of them having much traction in Scotland. Would have thought the further north in Scotland you went the bigger the SNP support you’d have

Yeah Orkney and Shetland vote for the Lib Dems religiously. I think there was a previous MP there who was very popular and they've voted Lib Dem since. It also happens to be one of the most anti-independence constituencies too, which I still don't really understand.

Commons begins at 1430 so thats when Bercow probably gets to his oxters and announces the S024 debate is a goer or not. Everyone welcome to tune into the party , live TV here

https://www.parliamentlive.tv/Commons

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

The sniping at FG from FF ranks has been on the increase but this is a full shot. I’m thinking FF are going to pull the plug shortly, realizing Ireland’s and the EUs position is secure and not in any danger of any curveballs from Britain

https://twitter.com/irishtimespol/status/1168843594200842240?s=21

This is pathetic party politics from FF... a leopard will never change its spots.

What exactly does Martin think the Irish Government can do here?

'Come clean'!? What sort of language is that?

Dytalus wrote: »

They may not be throwing any curveballs, but really do we need to be running an election coming up to (and over the immediate course of) a no-deal Brexit?

I just feel like getting over the hurdle would be better to happen before any change of government.

I think FF might get a slap they were not expecting if they caused an election now. Michael is just doing a 'look at me' run.

There's a strong case for a GE . If an extension is passed it may well be extension after extension. FG in fairness have been in for a while. "politicians and nappies are alike in many ways and need to be changed regularly for the same reason"

trellheim wrote: »

If an extension is passed it may well be extension after extension.

Which would be best for everyone, until the UK finally revoke A50.

Enzokk wrote: »

I find it astonishing that the Home Secretary didn't know that the ECHR is pivotal to the Good Friday Agreement. This isn't even debatable, like when we have had discussions that the GFA doesn't state that NI has to be in the EU. There is no spirit when it comes to this argument.



Good Friday agreement,



Good Friday Agreement

So May was so blinded by her dislike of the ECHR she was willing to break an international treaty to get rid of it, or like most politicians she wasn't aware of what she was proposing. Doesn't inspire confidence when your Home Secretary is so uninformed, never mind that she was able to rise to the top job.

Perhaps I'm taking you up wrong in the point being made (apologies if I have), but the GFA does not state they have to be in the EU (nor is it reliant on membership of the EU).

GM228 wrote: »

Perhaps I'm taking you up wrong in the point being made (apologies if I have), but the GFA does not state they have to be in the EU (nor is it reliant on membership of the EU).

I know, it doesn't outright state that. That is the debates we have had on here from time to time and it is true that it doesn't. The argument against that is that it was signed at a time that NI and Ireland were both in the EU at the time and thus there wasn't really a need to state that both need to stay in the EU or aligned to the rules to keep the status quo going. I do see the argument of the other side but don't think it holds any water.

But the case for getting rid of the ECHR is clear. You cannot do it without ripping up the GFA, there is no gray area here, and that is my point.