Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

johnnyskeleton · 03-09-2019 09:14AM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Why would they? Sitting on their hands and doing nothing brings their UI goal closer. They’re not going to give up their seats to others in order to save the union when brexit in any form brings about the unions collapse all the quicker.

As I said, I dont thjnk its likely. But in response to the other poster who suggested that the SDLP stand aside to try to stop Brexit, logically it should be SF who should do this, not SDLP

johnnyskeleton · 03-09-2019 09:17AM

darem93 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1168792492038217728

If this is the case Boris is definitely looking at an outright majority. The main hope to get the Tories out of government was them and the Brexit Party splitting the vote. Now Boris will receive all the no deal votes, while the Remain votes will be split between Lib Debs, Greens, SNP, Plaid Cymru and I guess Labour too.

It wont happen. If you can stomach it, have a listen to Farages radio show. He is more critical of Johnson than he is of Corbyn, probably because Johnson is stealing his thunder.

The key word in the Brexit party proposal is "if" Boris promises a no deal. But they will say Boris wants a deal and is only using no deal as a bluff (which is probably true)

CelticRambler · 03-09-2019 09:19AM

darem93 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1168792492038217728

If this is the case Boris is definitely looking at an outright majority. The main hope to get the Tories out of government was them and the Brexit Party splitting the vote. Now Boris will receive all the no deal votes, while the Remain votes will be split between Lib Debs, Greens, SNP, Plaid Cymru and I guess Labour too.

That's an optimistic forecast! There are a huge number of Tory Leavers (and on-the-fencers) who despise Boris' flagrant disrespect for Parliament. If the Brexit Party don't put up a candidate, there's a risk that this kind of voter will simply abstain - especially if it's in a supposedly safe seat where their one vote "doesn't count".

FPTP works really well at returning one party with a meaningful majority when there are only two choices; but that strength becomes a huge weakness when the them-or-us choice is complicated by the presence of unelectable characters in the main parties. This is, in effect, how Macron seized power in France. It's as much in the realms of fantasy as SF taking their seats, but just about conceivable that there are enough disillusioned Tory remainers in many constituencies who hate the thought of Jeremy Corbyn becoming PM to put their X in the Lib Dem's box.

Stop moaning ffs · 03-09-2019 09:20AM

Been listening to farage the last few weeks. His obvious rebranding of no deal into clean brexit aside,

If he actually got into a position to drive through his ‘clean brexit’ he’d absolutely brick himself.

He’s a mouth playing for attention. If he found himself involved with any power he’d be singing an entirely different song.

He’s singing this one cos he knows it’ll never happen.

is_that_so · 03-09-2019 09:20AM

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

It wont happen. If you can stomach it, have a listen to Farages radio show. He is more critical of Johnson than he is of Corbyn, probably because Johnson is stealing his thunder.

The key word in the Brexit party proposal is "if" Boris promises a no deal. But they will say Boris wants a deal and is only using no deal as a bluff (which is probably true)

Farage also envisions himself addressing his true peers in the only parliament that matters.

trellheim · 03-09-2019 09:23AM

Gavin Barwell tweets

V important thread for MPs who would support a deal but not no deal. I've had same reports re "sham negotiations" from multiple govt sources. If not true (my views were sometimes misreported when I was Chief of Staff) Government should publish its proposals to replace backstop

https://twitter.com/GavinBarwell/status/1168772470415011840

Ex Theresa May Chief of Staff

LeinsterDub · 03-09-2019 09:33AM

darem93 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1168792492038217728

If this is the case Boris is definitely looking at an outright majority. The main hope to get the Tories out of government was them and the Brexit Party splitting the vote. Now Boris will receive all the no deal votes, while the Remain votes will be split between Lib Debs, Greens, SNP, Plaid Cymru and I guess Labour too.

It reminds me of Labour not standing in 1918 and completely missing the boat for the next 40 years

BarryD2 · 03-09-2019 09:34AM

realdanbreen wrote: »

Can anyone , in not more than 4 lines explain
A: Main reason why Britain want to leave EU
B: Advantages for doing so
C: Disadvantages for doing so.

Sure they don't even know themselves if, why and how they want to leave. How would anyone else know?

SeaBreezes · 03-09-2019 09:44AM

realdanbreen wrote: »

Can anyone , in not more than 4 lines explain
A: Main reason why Britain want to leave EU
B: Advantages for doing so
C: Disadvantages for doing so.

A: So the wealthy with offshore accounts in the Cayman Islands won't have to declare their assets or pay tax on them as per new EU tax laws announced in 2016 to be enforced this year.
B: no advantages unless you are one of the top 1% who control gov and media.
C: Disadvantages are obvious for all but the 1% who will make MORE money from an impoverished nation.

BarryD2 · 03-09-2019 09:44AM

Anyone know what would happen in constituencies where there'd be Tory rebels if a GE was called in next few days. Presumably they'd lose the whip and maybe expelled from the party. But if they have the backing of their local Tory party team, how could the Tories then run a new candidate there? They'd effectively be conceding the seat either to the opposition or Farage's party. Surely this wouldn't help Boris get his majority, so the strategy of isolating them would backfire on him?

Stop moaning ffs · 03-09-2019 09:45AM

So now they have £100 million brexit ready campaign funds to play with.

https://twitter.com/bazziesmith/status/1168664085325582336?s=21

prawnsambo · 03-09-2019 09:49AM

realdanbreen wrote: »

Can anyone , in not more than 4 lines explain
A: Main reason why Britain want to leave EU

Main reason: Immigration. Unfortunately for them, the source of their fear of immigrants has nothing to do with the EU and everything to do with their past colonial history. Imo of course.

B: Advantages for doing so

Only real stated advantage is their ability to strike trade deals on their own. All the others are illusory. Like sovereignty or taking control of their money, borders and laws.

C: Disadvantages for doing so.

Any trade deal worth having would place the UK as by far the junior partner and pretty much decimate their domestic business sectors like agri-food and manufacturing. Any other trade deal where the UK is the larger partner would be so small as to be insignificant in relation to the trade they do with the EU. And all the big trade deals will take years. Any that take less time will be eye-wateringly painful. And they will be completely over a barrel, ripe for a jolly old rogering.

TL:DR: Brexit will tear the heart out of the UK economy and have it on life support for decades. All for 'feelings'.

Zubeneschamali · 03-09-2019 09:54AM

intellectual dosser wrote: »

No Deal: Crashing his own country into economic uncertainty, with the non-EU major economies circling like vultures. For what?

Johnson has been handed the job of Prime Minister, but he has boxed himself into a corner to get it. The only path to any sort of win is to be the PM who delivers Brexit.

So, run down the clock, prorogue Parliament, call an election - anything to stop Parliament preventing Brexit on the 31st October.

If Parliament do manage to prevent it, call an election as the leader in favour of Brexit who was stymied by Remoaner traitors. If he gets a majority, immediate Brexit. If not, well, he's lost and it's over.

The fact that "winning" would be a catastrophe for the UK and possibly bring about its end - who cares? He gets to be PM for another few weeks, and that is what it is all about.

ath262 · 03-09-2019 10:02AM

if the Rebels Alliance get to debate their bill and it looks like getting passed, resulting in Boris following through on the Elections threat, we could see the ridiculous situation of the Government trying to vote itself out of office, and failing .... providing the Rebels (inc. Labour) stick to their guns and vote against (or abstain?)

Zubeneschamali · 03-09-2019 10:03AM

realdanbreen wrote: »

Can anyone , in not more than 4 lines explain
A: Main reason why Britain want to leave EU
B: Advantages for doing so
C: Disadvantages for doing so.

A. Bloody immigrants
B. Blue passports and bendy bananas.
C. 1 year of crisis: food, medicine, fuel shortages, protests, riots, baton charges, army on the streets. Then 10 years of depressed trade, capital flight, disinvestment, factory closures, job losses, NHS crisis, falling Government revenues, cuts to services, recession. Government grab for emergency powers and sweeping human rights abuses when out from under European courts. Xenophobia and racism on show as immigrants targeted, blamed for taking our jobs etc when Brexit is a disaster. End of the UK as Scotland leaves to reapply to the EU. NI in crisis as agriculture wiped out. Ongoing national humiliation at EU trade talks as the EU twist the knife.

So, much like the usual under a Tory government.

prawnsambo · 03-09-2019 10:05AM

BarryD2 wrote: »

Anyone know what would happen in constituencies where there'd be Tory rebels if a GE was called in next few days. Presumably they'd lose the whip and maybe expelled from the party. But if they have the backing of their local Tory party team, how could the Tories then run a new candidate there? They'd effectively be conceding the seat either to the opposition or Farage's party. Surely this wouldn't help Boris get his majority, so the strategy of isolating them would backfire on him?

Well even if the local committee refused to deselect them, they can be deselected and replaced by central HQ. Obviously that's a nuclear option and would probably affect campaigning on the ground. And likely the deselected MP would stand as an independent and possibly have the local party machine on side. There will undoubtedly be some (perhaps even a majority) that would toe the line and deselect locally. But it would still likely end up with a split vote. So called safe seats would be the hardest for an independent Tory to take. So it's a gamble of 'you win some, you lose some' for HQ. I'm sure they've figured which ones they'd likely lose at this stage and are prepared to take any losses and hope for gains elsewhere.

Enzokk · 03-09-2019 10:06AM

ath262 wrote: »

if the Rebels Alliance get to debate their bill and it looks like getting passed, resulting in Boris following through on the Elections threat, we could see the ridiculous situation of the Government trying to vote itself out of office, and failing .... providing the Rebels (inc. Labour) stick to their guns and vote against (or abstain?)

Johnson cannot call an election himself though. If he loses control of parliament there isn't much he can do other than wait for the other side to do what they need to.

Gunmonkey · 03-09-2019 10:09AM

SeaBreezes wrote: »

A: So the wealthy with offshore accounts in the Cayman Islands won't have to declare their assets or pay tax on them as per new EU tax laws announced in 2016 to be enforced this year.
B: no advantages unless you are one of the top 1% who control gov and media.
C: Disadvantages are obvious for all but the 1% who will make MORE money from an impoverished nation.

Could add to B

-Investors who are speculating against the British economy after OCt 31 stand to make a killing (I really dont know how it works, just that if the economy sinks, some people make loads of cash)
-Large investors sitting on billions wait for Nov 1st and then treat it as a supermarket sweep at the British stock market, picking up companies for a song

ath262 · 03-09-2019 10:13AM

afaik he can try under the fixed term act, but needs 60%(?) to pass which is unlikely - but trying this and failing will just make him look daft (dafter...)

Professor Moriarty · 03-09-2019 10:16AM

ath262 wrote: »

afaik he can try under the fixed term act, but needs 60%(?) to pass which is unlikely - but trying this and failing will just make him look daft (dafter...)

He needs 66%. Interesting knife edge

ilovesmybrick · 03-09-2019 10:18AM

Mairead McGuinness is on Pat Kenny at the moment. It's worth listening back to to get a sense of how the the recent shenanigans are coming across to the EP.

realdanbreen · 03-09-2019 10:18AM

prawnsambo wrote: »

Main reason: Immigration. Unfortunately for them, the source of their fear of immigrants has nothing to do with the EU and everything to do with their past colonial history. Imo of course.

Only real stated advantage is their ability to strike trade deals on their own. All the others are illusory. Like sovereignty or taking control of their money, borders and laws.

Any trade deal worth having would place the UK as by far the junior partner and pretty much decimate their domestic business sectors like agri-food and manufacturing. Any other trade deal where the UK is the larger partner would be so small as to be insignificant in relation to the trade they do with the EU. And all the big trade deals will take years. Any that take less time will be eye-wateringly painful. And they will be completely over a barrel, ripe for a jolly old rogering.

TL:DR: Brexit will tear the heart out of the UK economy and have it on life support for decades. All for 'feelings'.

Excellent post. I watch various British current affairs and news programmes and have not seen or heard any presenter put lucid and simple facts as above to any panellist!

Pedro K · 03-09-2019 10:19AM

Naggdefy wrote: »

In a hierarchy of blame for the Brexit fiasco I think I'd apportion blame to 1. Cameron for such poor judgement. 2. Corbyn for such ineffectual opposition. May did as best she could and Johnson is just the fopish clown we all knew he was with delusions of being a renegade statesman like Churchill.

May deserves a large portion of the blame too. She drew the red lines that led us to this point.

She called the election that led to the DUP holding the balance of power, and she subsequently did the dirty deal with the DUP.

She triggered article 50 without a "sketch of a plan."

She coined the phrase "No deal is better than a bad deal."

is_that_so · 03-09-2019 10:20AM

Some more musings on what EU countries in general are thinking! I think we've run out of words for it TBH.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-49553654

VinLieger · 03-09-2019 10:23AM

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

Mairead McGuinness is on Pat Kenny at the moment. It's worth listening back to to get a sense of how the the recent shenanigans are coming across to the EP.

Dominic Grieve on now should be interesting to hear what he has to say

robinph · 03-09-2019 10:25AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

He needs 66%. Interesting knife edge

Yes, except it won't be Johnson doing the asking.

Johnson is trying to trick Corbyn into doing the asking by calling a VoNC. You hardly call a vote on yourself being useless.

Water John · 03-09-2019 10:26AM

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-49553654

What that shows above all, is that Katya Adler performs to whatever audience she is addressing. Is this her true journalism and what she does on TV a performance?

is_that_so · 03-09-2019 10:28AM

Water John wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-49553654

What that shows above all, is that Katya Adler performs to whatever audience she is addressing. Is this her true journalism and what she does on TV a performance?

Posted about three posts up!

Without the attendant commentary of course.

briany · 03-09-2019 10:29AM

In the event of a GE, a surge in seats for the Lib Dems will say to the Conservatives... absolutely nothing. Neither main party will acknowledge it, in fact. Any attempt to ask their representatives about it will be met with, "...we have been given a mandate to deliver Brexit..."

Professor Moriarty · 03-09-2019 10:32AM

is_that_so wrote: »

Some more musings on what EU countries in general are thinking! I think we've run out of words for it TBH.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-49553654

Having been on the continent in various countries recently, there is very little reportage on the implosion within British democracy. Mostly, they simply have no interest anymore. Any news on Brexit, Johnson, Parliament etc. is dismissive. If Britain thought that Brexit would show Europe what Britain is really like, then it has been an unqualified success.

Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

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