Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

ancapailldorcha · 02-09-2019 09:26PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

How many times did change uk change their names?

Probably not a good idea to brand it as a separate party. Wait for the outcome. Tory party is definitely split though. Can they come back from it?
Doubtful right now

The Conservative party as an entity will only survive with several of its organs being removed and it'll take electoral catastrophe at the very least to trigger this process.

Like, I can't fathom what Johnson is really gunning for here. His sole ideology seems to be Boris Johnson. The only things I think he cares for are his legacy and people's opinions of him hence the various stunts he pulled as Mayor of London.

I had thought that he was hoping to goad Parliament into forcing him into seeking another extension so that he could avoid a catastrophic no deal for the sake of him and his party. Proroguing Parliament runs contradictory to that as does looking to force an election.

Speaking of an election, what exactly does he run on? May ran against Corbyn and managed to destroy her majority altogether and this was before the term "backstop" entered the public sphere. He can't run on the economy given what he's about to do to it and he can't run on the NHS, public services, education or any of the other things which pale in comparison to Brexit. Maybe international trade but that's a stretch. Nobody cares about trade unless they can use it to trigger liberals. I just don't think that there are anywhere near enough angry Brexiters to hand him the 400-odd seats he really needs to be free of the DUP, ERG and the moderate rebels.

And Corbyn? His rhetoric seems to be centred exclusively on averting no deal rather than stopping Brexit. This won't be enough to convince either Brexiter Labour voters or metropolitan student types that they should vote for him.

I don't think I can call this one.

Headshot · 02-09-2019 09:30PM

Personally what I would love to see Brexit voted to be delayed tomorrow, Boris calls for an election but Corbyn's labour votes it down and letting Boris stew in the **** he has created

Unfortunately Corbyn wants the election badly but he needs to think of the bigger picture here and he has the opportunity to really destroy the Tories

sondagefaux · 02-09-2019 09:32PM

McGiver wrote: »

Tech note - neither CH nor NO are in the CU. That's why EFTA have somewhat independent trade policy and their own FTAs.
NI Backstop would be needed even if they went the Norway route.

Staying in CU and SM is a nonsense, it would make zero sense for UK (no independent trade policy, limited regulatory power, no representation in EU legislative, SM access payments, adherence to 4 freedoms).

Switzerland isn't in the Single Market either, it has a set of bilateral agreements with the EU that largely contain much of the same rules as the Single Market, but financial services, for example, are excluded from these agreements.

Switzerland has been granted equivalency for many of its financial services, but the EU can withdraw this with just 30 days notice.

Equivalency confers nowhere near the benefits of being in the Single Market, which fully covers services, and which allows the City of London to act as the primary place of business for financial services sector companies (and related services such as legal businesses, insurance etc) to serve the entire Single Market from, due to the passporting rights granted under the Single Market.

The loss of these rights, and the loss of the right to legally transfer data from the EU to the UK, will have a hugely negative impact on the UK's services sector which makes up 80% of its economy.

I don't know why the majority of the UK's population thinks that losing the treaty rights which form the basis for much of the UK's economy and jobs is going to be good for the UK.

Perhaps they're unaware just how much of their services sector relies on the Single Market and are far too focused on trying to secure free trade in goods.

sondagefaux · 02-09-2019 09:34PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

The risk of deselection is that the incumbent could stand as an independent. Of course they are not guaranteed to be successful, but they could still possibly garner considerable personal support. Depending of course on who they are. The likes of Rory Stewart, David Gauke, Philip Hammond etc. spring to mind.

Deselection means there isn't any further way of enforcing party discipline on them in the House of Commons.

They can vote as they please if they know they're not going to be Conservative candidates ever again.

sondagefaux · 02-09-2019 09:39PM

Deleted User wrote: »

IF he gets voted out on 14th Oct (the mooted election date) would he be Britain's shortest serving PM?

I've seen that he has the power to call an election for Oct 14th, then change the date to November so Britain still exits without a deal. Is that true?

No, it's not true.

He has no power to call an election before the next scheduled one. The Fixed Term Parliaments Act means that a motion to call an early general election requires a two-thirds majority of MPs to vote in favour of it. Even if he gets 65% of MPs to vote for an early general election, it still wouldn't be good enough.

prawnsambo · 02-09-2019 09:44PM

sondagefaux wrote: »

Deselection means there isn't any further way of enforcing party discipline on them in the House of Commons.

They can vote as they please if they know they're not going to be Conservative candidates ever again.

If the end goal is a GE, party discipline in the HoC is of finite value. In fact it could be useful to have dissidents voting against you in a VoNC. For reasons of being able to scream 'betrayal' at them whilst silently thanking them for their service. But perhaps I'm being too Machiavellian.

briany · 02-09-2019 09:44PM

Headshot wrote: »

Personally what I would love to see Brexit voted to be delayed tomorrow, Boris calls for an election but Corbyn's labour votes it down and letting Boris stew in the **** he has created

Unfortunately Corbyn wants the election badly but he needs to think of the bigger picture here and he has the opportunity to really destroy the Tories

If Labour vote against a GE, and leave Boris in charge, what happens if Boris just folds his arms and says, "I don't care what you voted for, I'm not going to Brussels, I'm not going to ask for an extension. I don't care what legal term you cite. I. AIN'T. GOING!"?

Headshot · 02-09-2019 09:46PM

briany wrote: »

If Labour vote against a GE, and leave Boris in charge, what happens if Boris just folds his arms and says, "I don't care what you voted for, I'm not going to Brussels, I'm not going to ask for an extension. I don't care what legal term you cite. I. AIN'T. GOING!"?

afaik legally he'll have to do it or go to jail

sondagefaux · 02-09-2019 09:48PM

briany wrote: »

If Labour vote against a GE, and leave Boris in charge, what happens if Boris just folds his arms and says, "I don't care what you voted for, I'm not going to Brussels, I'm not going to ask for an extension. I don't care what legal term you cite. I. AIN'T. GOING!"?

Parliament can fire him and the entire government by holding a Vote of No Confidence in the government. There doesn't have to be a general election to fire Johnson.

A Vote of No Confidence in the government doesn't automatically lead to a general election.

Under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, MPs have 14 days after the government loses a Vote of No Confidence to propose a new prime minister .

If they can do so before the 14 day deadline expires, the FTPA says that a general election does not have to be held.

Shelga · 02-09-2019 09:48PM

What do Labour and the Tories actually want to happen tomorrow??

What did Tony Blair mean in his warning to Labour today?- that if they get an early GE before October 31st, it could backfire and they could be wiped out while the Tories get a majority? Isn’t that a major risk at all times while Corbyn is leader anyway??

sondagefaux · 02-09-2019 09:51PM

Shelga wrote: »

What do Labour and the Tories actually want to happen tomorrow??

What did Tony Blair mean in his warning to Labour today?- that if they get an early GE before October 31st, it could backfire and they could be wiped out while the Tories get a majority? Isn’t that a major risk at all times while Corbyn is leader anyway??

I presume he means that even Corbyn might look like a better alternative Prime Minister if there's an election after the UK leaves without a deal on October 31st.

If even a fraction of the disruption that a No Deal Brexit is predicted to cause materialises, the reputation of Johnson and the Conservatives will be ruined: Johnson's 'Fúck Business' remark is going to come back to haunt him.

Stop moaning ffs · 02-09-2019 09:53PM

Hard to believe sources from number ten at this stage. But this is interesting

https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/1168600129819086848?s=21

briany · 02-09-2019 09:53PM

Headshot wrote: »

afaik legally he'll have to do it or go to jail

Really? For someone in Boris's social position I just can't see anything he does (in a political context) being so egregious that it's an open and shut job. More akin to the legal proceedings against him for lying during the Brexit campaign is what I envisioned.

sondagefaux · 02-09-2019 09:55PM

briany wrote: »

Really? For someone in Boris's social position I just can't see anything he does (in a political context) being so egregious that it's an open and shut job. More akin to the legal proceedings against him for lying during the Brexit campaign is what I envisioned.

The attempt to have him prosecuted for lying during the referendum campaign failed.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-brexit-bus-supreme-court-vote-leave-appeal-latest-a9056871.html

gooch2k9 · 02-09-2019 09:56PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Hard to believe sources from number ten at this stage. But this is interesting

https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/1168600129819086848?s=21

It's all just about being in power. The good of the country matters not a jot to these people.

Infini · 02-09-2019 10:01PM

sondagefaux wrote: »

Deselection means there isn't any further way of enforcing party discipline on them in the House of Commons.

They can vote as they please if they know they're not going to be Conservative candidates ever again.

It's also a collossal own goal, I mean so what if they're deselected when parliment holds all power in the end I mean if they truly want to stop Brexit all they need is for a Majority of MP's to rally behind who can act as a caretaker PM and basically refuse to endorse a GE because then Boris and the Brexiteer loons end up boxed in and unable to act. By deselecting them instead of rebels you lose all control entirely. It's a pity Jeremy is so impotent if Labour stopped following him and just sidelined him instead there's a chance they could end this.

bilston · 02-09-2019 10:08PM

Talk of an election on 14th October.

That's a Monday. Is that not unusual. Surely it would be the 17th October, a Thursday, which is when every other UK election in recent times have occurred to the best of my knowledge.

Infini · 02-09-2019 10:09PM

bilston wrote: »

Talk of an election on 14th October.

That's a Monday. Is that not unusual. Surely it would be the 17th October, a Thursday, which is when every other UK election in recent times have occurred to the best of my knowledge.

17th is the sheduled Date of the EU summit if im not mistaken that's probably why. Likely want's clarity of what kind of parlimentary makeup to expect.

bilston · 02-09-2019 10:12PM

Infini wrote: »

17th is the sheduled Date of the EU summit if im not mistaken that's probably why. Likely want's clarity of what kind of parlimentary makeup to expect.

Makes sense.

Still a few hoops to go through but an election looks pretty likely to me.

Johnson will likely win a majority and an Irish Sea Border will be created in short order.

Bit cynical · 02-09-2019 10:14PM

Shelga wrote: »

What do Labour and the Tories actually want to happen tomorrow??

What did Tony Blair mean in his warning to Labour today?- that if they get an early GE before October 31st, it could backfire and they could be wiped out while the Tories get a majority? Isn’t that a major risk at all times while Corbyn is leader anyway??

I'm pretty sure that was more or less it. That the Tories would win a general election.

Dyr · 02-09-2019 10:16PM

Infini wrote: »

It's also a collossal own goal, I mean so what if they're deselected when parliment holds all power in the end I mean if they truly want to stop Brexit all they need is for a Majority of MP's to rally behind who can act as a caretaker PM and basically refuse to endorse a GE because then Boris and the Brexiteer loons end up boxed in and unable to act. By deselecting them instead of rebels you lose all control entirely. It's a pity Jeremy is so impotent if Labour stopped following him and just sidelined him instead there's a chance they could end this.

The thing is the leavers are united behind a single goal, the remainders are not.

Only one winner in that scenario

WomanSkirtFan8 · 02-09-2019 10:20PM

gooch2k9 wrote: »

It's all just about being in power. The good of the country matters not a jot to these people.

Unfortunately the fact and indeed the Brexiteer politicians, have proven this to be true with each passing day and week. :rolleyes:

Headshot · 02-09-2019 10:24PM

This is just small segment of what Alistair said

You have feel sorry for Alistai. The man has been chewed and spit out by his party.

The ERG are the real evil in his party

Itssoeasy · 02-09-2019 10:25PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

dublinman1990 wrote: »

I heard him say these few words outside No.10 Downing St.

"I don't want an election. You don't want an election."

Looks like there's going to be an election.

Methinks he doth protest too much.

"I don't want an election, You don't want an election... But if you twist my arm, just a little bit.."

Well just he doesn't want an election doesn't mean he won't get one.

prawnsambo · 02-09-2019 10:31PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Hard to believe sources from number ten at this stage. But this is interesting

https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/1168600129819086848?s=21

This is what they're talking about.

But of course they're wrong. The image above leaves out paragraph 3(3) which says parliament must approve.

Student teaching the master apparently (if you read the thread).

Panrich · 02-09-2019 10:33PM

I’d be very concerned that Johnson would pull the rug on an early election if voted for by parliament until it was too late to stop a no deal. He would still have executive power until such time as an election took place.

Stop moaning ffs · 02-09-2019 10:34PM

Bambi wrote: »

The thing is the leavers are united behind a single goal, the remainders are not.

Only one winner in that scenario

You’re bang on the money there. Leave has morphed onto we always wanted to leave with no deal.

That’s the level of delusion and manipulation they’ve reached.

Remain and a single purpose by comparison is just nowhere to be found. When it should be the simplest message imaginable.

McGiver · 02-09-2019 10:46PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

McGiver wrote: »

Tech note - neither CH nor NO are in the CU. That's why EFTA have somewhat independent trade policy and their own FTAs.
NI Backstop would be needed even if they went the Norway route.

Staying in CU and SM is a nonsense, it would make zero sense for UK (no independent trade policy, limited regulatory power, no representation in EU legislative, SM access payments, adherence to 4 freedoms).

Ah yeah, I should have given Turkey as an example for being in the CU. But technically speaking, leaving the EU is anything from just leaving the institutions to all the way to full crash out. I wasn't suggesting it would make sense, just how simplistic the referendum question was or how broad a mandate it gave the government.

CU membership actually doesn't make sense from a departing member's point of view as it restricts trade policy. Whereas SM membership does not restrict it (see EFTA's FTAs).

I was really surprised that the Norway route option was less popular in the HoC than the Turkey option, as the indicative votes confirmed. The Turkey option is far inferior and restrictive.

devnull · 02-09-2019 10:47PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

You’re bang on the money there. Leave has morphed onto we always wanted to leave with no deal.

That’s the level of delusion and manipulation they’ve reached.

Remain and a single purpose by comparison is just nowhere to be found. When it should be the simplest message imaginable.

What illustrated this for me today was that there are a number of people who are now saying that they want to have an option of revoking article 50 put in any legislation as a back-up option should the other ones fail. This is making No Deal more likely.

As we've seen in the indicative votes where fairly decent sized groups voted to revoke and a peoples vote but abstained on soft Brexit options, some people are so pro-remain that they are willing to risk a No Deal Brexit to bank on the very very long odds get it. There is just no willing to compromise in the remain side.

If they had compromised a bit more this would have been put to bed and No Deal would have been put to bed for good. But already we're seeing the likes of Chuka making the same mistake again, being more concerned about supporting the minor minor minor chance of revoke than stopping No Deal.

Capt'n Midnight · 02-09-2019 10:51PM

For Forks Sake wrote: »

Of course he has, what is it - five times- he's run for Westminster unsuccessfully at this stage?

Seven since 1994.

And he's even tried running in the Speakers constituency where the main parties by convention don't run. He finished behind Flipper the dolphin.

Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

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