Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

prawnsambo · 30-08-2019 01:43PM

Strazdas wrote: »

The main reason Irexit is nonsensical is that the ROI is a small country of 5m and an export led economy. Leaving the SM and Eurozone would absolutely decimate the economy, worse than the 2008 crash.

Let me count the ways.

1. Losing 90% of our export markets (either to the EU or via EU FTAs)
2. Losing pretty much all our FDI. How many jobs is that?
3. Being completely dependant on the UK. That worked well the last time.
4. Losing FoM. Which coupled with 2 above would mean no emigration to take the pressure off the exchequer. Except to the UK of course (as long as they continue to honour the CTA - See 3 above).

Good move Irexit. Can't wait.

Strazdas · 30-08-2019 01:44PM

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

It’s a ridiculous notion ignorant of our trading realities, but it also has little or no public support. Indeed support for the EU here is rising since the start of the Brexit crisis in the UK.

Yes, the most recent Eurobarometer showed Ireland as nearly the most pro-EU country in Europe (I imagine Brexit is helping with this).

jimmycrackcorm · 30-08-2019 02:04PM

Peregrinus wrote: »

In fairness, I think FF have a bit of a point here.

My one criticism of the government is that they should have been more upfront about the consequences if the UK refuses to honour it's no-hard-border guarantee by committing to the backstop, or something equally effective.

Letting people think that we could still avoid a hard border in that scenario played into the Brexiters' hands by giving them a basis for arguing that the backstop wasn't necessary/had a sinister purpose. And it discouraged business and people in Ireland from considering the prospect of a hard border, and how it might affect them, and what plans they might make to mitigate damage in that situation.

I don't think that the Irish government talking about what would happen in a no-deal situation could ever have been spun into Ireland accepting a no-deal. You can turn every talking about what would happen in no-deal into a diatribe against no-deal and a restatement of the need for the UK not to force it on us.

I don't agree with this because the reality is that hard brexit means a hard border that we have to put up and that gives the UK a give scoring point to continually day that Ireland are definitely going to put up a border while they continually blatantly lie that they had no intention of doing the same.

As such after hard brexit we will have to put up the border but it will be seen as a response to the UKs choice.
Any hint beforehand just plays straight into the brexiteers book.

Balanadan · 30-08-2019 02:07PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Yes, the most recent Eurobarometer showed Ireland as nearly the most pro-EU country in Europe (I imagine Brexit is helping with this).

And when you look at anti-Irish bile emanating from some quarters in the UK, usually staunch pro-Brexit quarters, you'd have to question the sanity of anyone thinking Ireland should leave the EU to align with them!

ath262 · 30-08-2019 02:14PM

based on the Sky interview and the ranting about rebels harming chances of a getting good deal with Brussels it appears to me that Boris (cummings?) cunning plan is to act crazy , and really will exit with no deal thinking that the EU will suddenly break all their principles, damage the single market and possibly the EU by doing so, and somehow change the WA... if so they hopelessly misunderstand how the EU functions. Not the first senior UK politician to be guilty of this

CelticRambler · 30-08-2019 02:21PM

ath262 wrote: »

based on the Sky interview and the ranting about rebels harming chances of a getting good deal with Brussels it appears to me that Boris (cummings?) cunning plan is to act crazy ...

Having just seen that, I'm not convinced there's any acting involved.

"The best way to get a deal, is to show that we're preparing for no-deal"

Ehhhh, Boris, you're going to need a deal sooner or later. The best way to do so would be to stop saying you don't care whether or not you get it.

storker · 30-08-2019 02:22PM

ath262 wrote: »

based on the Sky interview and the ranting about rebels harming chances of a getting good deal with Brussels it appears to me that Boris (cummings?) cunning plan is to act crazy , and really will exit with no deal thinking that the EU will suddenly break all their principles, damage the single market and possibly the EU by doing so, and somehow change the WA... if so they hopelessly misunderstand how the EU functions. Not the first senior UK politician to be guilty of this

I'm reminded of Napoleon waiting too long in Moscow, convinced that the Tsar would get in touch to negotiate any day now.

ath262 · 30-08-2019 02:28PM

CelticRambler wrote: »

Having just seen that, I'm not convinced there's any acting involved.

"The best way to get a deal, is to show that we're preparing for no-deal"

Ehhhh, Boris, you're going to need a deal sooner or later. The best way to do so would be to stop saying you don't care whether or not you get it.

that the illogical idea they keep bringing up - the UK shooting themselves in the foot (or wherever) is not as great a threat to the EU as damaging the single market, four freedoms, risking the hard-won peace in Ireland etc would be

CelticRambler · 30-08-2019 02:28PM

I read (or heard) something somewhere this morning (sorry, been scooting all over th'internet today, can't remember where) suggesting that some cabinet minister (?) was caught saying that Britain's political system is based on the "winner takes all" principle, and in proroguing parliament Johnson is just pushing that to the limit.

Whether or not the comment is true in respect of the prorogation, it is certainly true in respect of British politics, and this attitude has undoubtedly been a major contributor to the shambles of a negotiation strategy with the EU (and HoC's inability to mount a coherent counterstrategy to the government). It doesn't bode well for the many other negotiations that will have to take place in years to come.

VinLieger · 30-08-2019 02:30PM

CelticRambler wrote: »

I read (or heard) something somewhere this morning (sorry, been scooting all over th'internet today, can't remember where) suggesting that some cabinet minister (?) was caught saying that Britain's political system is based on the "winner takes all" principle, and in proroguing parliament Johnson is just pushing that to the limit.

Whether or not the comment is true in respect of the prorogation, it is certainly true in respect of British politics, and this attitude has undoubtedly been a major contributor to the shambles of a negotiation strategy with the EU (and HoC's inability to mount a coherent counterstrategy to the government). It doesn't bode well for the many other negotiations that will have to take place in years to come.

Yup here it is

https://twitter.com/MonarchyUK/status/1167048291273584641

ath262 · 30-08-2019 02:31PM

CelticRambler wrote: »

I read (or heard) something somewhere this morning (sorry, been scooting all over th'internet today, can't remember where) suggesting that some cabinet minister (?) was caught saying that Britain's political system is based on the "winner takes all" principle, and in proroguing parliament Johnson is just pushing that to the limit.
....

sounds like Ben Wallace yesterday

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-politics-49516694/defence-secretary-ben-wallace-overheard-discussing-parliament-suspension

BarryD2 · 30-08-2019 02:31PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

Time after time, you've been given links to the ACTUAL amount of trade we do with the UK. Under 10% of our exports go to the UK. A far higher percentage goes to the EU. We actually export more to Belgium. On its own. Seriosuly, why are you persisting with this stuff.

My working definition of the real economy is different from yours. I'm thinking of the many small businesses up and down this country who import/ export goods from and via the U.K. Businesses that have a solid role to play in providing employment and in staying the course if they can at all. My definition includes the ordinary people who buy their daily groceries down in their local Supervalu or Centra or wherever.

This is the real economy, not your 'funny money' from the likes of Apple or Google etc etc which grossly inflates our GDP etc. Not the multi nationals, whilst their employment is welcome, are quite capable of upping sticks and moving off if it suits their boardroom and shareholders.

It's the real local economy that we should be concerned about. Because that's what will have a lasting impact.

Your user name Prawn Sambo is very apt

Laois_Man · 30-08-2019 02:33PM

CelticRambler wrote: »

Ehhhh, Boris, you're going to need a deal sooner or later. The best way to do so would be to stop saying you don't care whether or not you get it.

He knows, it's all just a preemptive strike with general election campaign sound bytes

VinLieger · 30-08-2019 02:38PM

BarryD2 wrote: »

My working definition of the real economy is different from yours. I'm thinking of the many small businesses up and down this country who import/ export goods from and via the U.K. Businesses that have a solid role to play in providing employment and in staying the course if they can at all. My definition includes the ordinary people who buy their daily groceries down in their local Supervalu or Centra or wherever.

This is the real economy, not your 'funny money' from the likes of Apple or Google etc etc which grossly inflates our GDP etc. Not the multi nationals, whilst their employment is welcome, are quite capable of upping sticks and moving off if it suits their boardroom and shareholders.

It's the real local economy that we should be concerned about. Because that's what will have a lasting impact.

Your user name Prawn Sambo is very apt

Your attitude is very akin to the bexiteers magical thinking and the idea that wishing for unicorns would get us through if we went for an Irexit because if we all joined together and wished really really hard everything would work out regardless of the fact that we would be cutting ourself off from our biggest trading partner which gives us access to several of the other largest markets and free trade deals in the world.

CelticRambler · 30-08-2019 02:38PM

BarryD2 wrote: »

My working definition of the real economy is different from yours. I'm thinking of the many small businesses up and down this country who import/ export goods from and via the U.K. Businesses that have a solid role to play in providing employment and in staying the course if they can at all. My definition includes the ordinary people who buy their daily groceries down in their local Supervalu or Centra or wherever.

Go on then: show us the statistics that demonstrate that Supervalu and Centra are importing just as much from the UK now as they were three years ago.

And why - in your opinion - should a small business importing from the UK still be in business if they haven't already taken steps to protect themselves against Brexit? Do you (or they) know that there are 26 other countries that can supply goods to the same standards?

prawnsambo · 30-08-2019 02:40PM

BarryD2 wrote: »

My working definition of the real economy is different from yours. I'm thinking of the many small businesses up and down this country who import/ export goods from and via the U.K. Businesses that have a solid role to play in providing employment and in staying the course if they can at all. My definition includes the ordinary people who buy their daily groceries down in their local Supervalu or Centra or wherever.

Where do you think their groceries come from? Ever been to Lidl or Aldi? Or any of the Musgraves many chains of supermarkets? All source mainly from the continent.

BarryD2 wrote: »

This is the real economy, not your 'funny money' from the likes of Apple or Google etc etc which grossly inflates our GDP etc. Not the multi nationals, whilst their employment is welcome, are quite capable of upping sticks and moving off if it suits their boardroom and shareholders.

You haven't looked at the figures then. Because y'know, they're broken down into commodities. It's ok to say you don't understand them though, we'll do our best to explain.

I've snipped the personal comment. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that you're not trying to 'play the man'.

Igotadose · 30-08-2019 02:41PM

BarryD2 wrote: »

My working definition of the real economy is different from yours. I'm thinking of the many small businesses up and down this country who import/ export goods from and via the U.K. Businesses that have a solid role to play in providing employment and in staying the course if they can at all. My definition includes the ordinary people who buy their daily groceries down in their local Supervalu or Centra or wherever.

Any thought, for the poor small businesses in NI? Imagine the chaos when they can't source products from the ROI.

And the cost to the UK. As others have commented on your trolling post, Brexit's no surprise so they 'should' be ready. Are you confident HMG's plans have them covered?

Chips Lovell · 30-08-2019 02:55PM

Mod Note

BarryD2 wrote: »

Your user name Prawn Sambo is very apt

Less of the personal digs please. Play the ball, not the man.

Thanks

Charles Babbage · 30-08-2019 03:00PM

Igotadose wrote: »

Any thought, for the poor small businesses in NI? Imagine the chaos when they can't source products from the ROI.

But they will, according to Boris, as there will be no checks on the NI side.

Their problem is much worse, they will have real problems selling in the 26 counties while businesses from there will be able to sell in NI.

McGiver · 30-08-2019 03:01PM

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Lyra Black Sportswoman wrote: »

Facts are important. 5% at the moment. 20 years ago it was about 5%

12% in 2009
16% in 2012

It was higher in 2012 than during the 90's, hitting ~18% during the 80's.

5% is effectively full employment

Ehm nope, 2-3% is the level.

Czech Republic has 1.9% unemployment - that's a full employment

L1011 · 30-08-2019 03:01PM

McGiver wrote: »

Ehm nope, 2-3% is the level.

Czech Republic has 1.9% unemployment - that's a full employment

International standard is ~5%. 1.9% is either abnormally low or they're using bad definitions.

LuckyLloyd · 30-08-2019 03:01PM

BarryD2 wrote: »

My working definition of the real economy is different from yours. I'm thinking of the many small businesses up and down this country who import/ export goods from and via the U.K. Businesses that have a solid role to play in providing employment and in staying the course if they can at all. My definition includes the ordinary people who buy their daily groceries down in their local Supervalu or Centra or wherever.

This is the real economy, not your 'funny money' from the likes of Apple or Google etc etc which grossly inflates our GDP etc. Not the multi nationals, whilst their employment is welcome, are quite capable of upping sticks and moving off if it suits their boardroom and shareholders.

It's the real local economy that we should be concerned about. Because that's what will have a lasting impact.

Your user name Prawn Sambo is very apt

“Real local economy”

The notion that the entirety of Ireland’s actual economy is tiny businesses trading solely with the UK and that 90% of our economy is therefore illusory and effectively a bunch of major multinationals employing fake people making fake money is utterly bizarre, fantastical and completely and utterly wrong. Wrapping it in half baked put downs of the former being the reality of the normal working man and the latter being the ‘elite’ takes the biscuit.

But when you’re committed to a narrative, no matter how wrong it is, I guess ignoring reality is the objective.

The facts remain: Brexit hurts the Irish economy but it isn’t 1960, UK trade is a small minority of the business we do as a nation and we need to align with and focus on where 90% of our economy makes its money: the Single Market.

fash · 30-08-2019 03:20PM

InTheShadows wrote: »

VinLieger wrote:

Your still waiting for that bus ehh?

It's on the way

Will it have a promise to put £350 million into the NHS on it and will it be hand-painted by Johnson?

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo · 30-08-2019 03:23PM

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

“Real local economy”

The notion that the entirety of Ireland’s actual economy is tiny businesses trading solely with the UK and that 90% of our economy is therefore illusory and effectively a bunch of major multinationals employing fake people making fake money is utterly bizarre, fantastical and completely and utterly wrong. Wrapping it in half baked put downs of the former being the reality of the normal working man and the latter being the ‘elite’ takes the biscuit.

But when you’re committed to a narrative, no matter how wrong it is, I guess ignoring reality is the objective.

The facts remain: Brexit hurts the Irish economy but it isn’t 1960, UK trade is a small minority of the business we do as a nation and we need to align with and focus on where 90% of our economy makes its money: the Single Market.

They simply don't care about what happens to Ireland. The DUP are laughing them on.

Why would the DUP try reinstate a Stormant that doesn't matter to them.

I don't think the Conservative government gives a crap about Ireland. They want and have tried for an EU deal constantly without us but haven't got it.

Enzokk · 30-08-2019 03:24PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Here on Planet Earth, is was Johnson who loudly announced that he would not talk to the EU until they dropped the backstop. These twice a week talks are a total climbdown.

Meanwhile the EU has been open to negotiation on the content of the Political Declaration all along. It is the WA which they will not negotiate. There is no sign, none, that they have changed that longstanding position.

None of this is or will work out well for the UK.

What I tried to convey is that the EU was always going to open talks with a new leader. The EU is not unreasonable and thus negotiations was always going to happen. Framing it as the EU being unreasonable and then "winning that battle" when you knew they would he could spin it his way, even if it doesn't mean much in the larger scheme of things.

VinLieger · 30-08-2019 03:26PM

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

They simply don't care about what happens to Ireland. The DUP are laughing them on.

Why would the DUP try reinstate a Stormant that doesn't matter to them.

I don't think the Conservative government gives a crap about Ireland. They want and have tried for an EU deal constantly without us but haven't got it.

DUP really would do well to take heed of Edward Carsons thoughts on the tories

What a fool I was. I was only a puppet, and so was Ulster, and so was Ireland, in the political game that was to get the Conservative Party into power.

Absolutely nothing has changed in 100 years

reslfj · 30-08-2019 03:27PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

I'm going to reply to this inside the quote.

What are the new tariffs going to be.
From the UK, you'll need to look up the commodity code. Here. From France, none and from NI (imo) none.

Without a deal EU's WTO MFN tariffs will be collected from NI into Ireland/EU27 too. Regulatory control will also happen.

Might, however, not happen on Brexit day, as I'm sure the EU27 will focus on getting customs and controls working first for the England<->Continental EU trade.

Lars

If the UK will trade they need to 'integrate' many/most rules (follow the EU's standards). If they won't trade it will be OK for the EU27 too.

But the EU27+UK citizens rights, the backstop and paying the 'peanuts' money the UK owes (£39bn or whatever) is just something we must force the UK to uphold - with no mercy, no mitigation and no negotiations

Laois_Man · 30-08-2019 03:30PM

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

I don't think the Conservative government gives a crap about Ireland.

Refer to Alex Boris Johnson's constant and annoying use of the "Our friends across the channel" line! They only look in that direction!

prawnsambo · 30-08-2019 03:34PM

reslfj wrote: »

Without a deal EU's WTO MFN tariffs will be collected from NI into Ireland/EU27 too. Regulatory control will also happen.

Might, however, not happen on Brexit day, as I'm sure the EU27 will focus on getting customs and controls working first for the England<->Continental EU trade.

Lars

Might not happen on brexit day plus one or two either. It's a weekend.

reslfj · 30-08-2019 03:35PM

is_that_so wrote: »

They are right to an extent about last minute changes and many a summit has gone down to the wire but once it's been agreed and nothing better shows up that's it.

Any EU<-> UK deal is a deal with a 3. country where A50 says the EU Parliament must give its consent too.

It's not and can't be a last minute operation.

Lars

Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

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