Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

BarryD2 wrote: »

When this whole business started, I was of the opinion that if Brexit ever came to pass and in particular a no deal Brexit, that Irexit will be an inevitable reality. Maybe not immediately but I think we'll be obliged for many practical reasons to realign ourselves. So the Brits will drag us out too, just like we went into the EEC together, just like the EU framework backs up the GFA.

And do you know what. We've a lot of Euro skeptics here (keeping quiet at the moment) who would be quite happy to see this come to pass. I wouldn't be among them but they've been very prominent in previous referendums and include political figures and parties here.

Time after time, you've been given links to the ACTUAL amount of trade we do with the UK. Under 10% of our exports go to the UK. A far higher percentage goes to the EU. We actually export more to Belgium. On its own. Seriosuly, why are you persisting with this stuff.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Ignore what happens in the UK, in Parliament, in the Press, on the streets of London. We can agree that it is a shambles and no progress was made, ignore that for now and focus on the EU.

What did the extension cost the EU? What would another 1 year extension cost?

Answer - virtually nothing since in the extension period nothing changes.

What will No Deal cost the EU? an absolute metric ass-load of cash money as trade with a major partner suffer huge disruption starting Nov 1st.

An extension is an absolute no brainer.

And that is before we consider what No Deal might do to the UK - turning it into a failed state on the EUs doorstep.

One with an aging Nuclear arsenal, too.

BarryD2 wrote: »

So what's your solution then? That the ordinary Irish citizen, taxpayer and consumer will pick up the tab for the sake of ideology?

I'm no lover of the Brits, love nothing more than to see us get one over them on the sports field etc. But I also understand the close links between our countries and as the smaller neighbour, how our bread is buttered. We can't escape our geography or history for that matter.

When this whole business started, I was of the opinion that if Brexit ever came to pass and in particular a no deal Brexit, that Irexit will be an inevitable reality. Maybe not immediately but I think we'll be obliged for many practical reasons to realign ourselves. So the Brits will drag us out too, just like we went into the EEC together, just like the EU framework backs up the GFA.

And do you know what. We've a lot of Euro skeptics here (keeping quiet at the moment) who would be quite happy to see this come to pass. I wouldn't be among them but they've been very prominent in previous referendums and include political figures and parties here.

No. This is not inevitable and while I generally do not invoke this argument, it is not what we fought a civil war for 100 years ago.

We have put a metric tonne of effort into realigning our interests away from the vagaries of the UK and their godawful constitutional arrangements which given events on Wed is worth doing.

I hope you aren't willing to give up what we have now.

But you are a disaster fantasist I think. It's obvious from your posts lately.

Andrea Leadsom and Amber Rudd visited Belfast in last 24 hours.

Next level threat which I predicted ( Direct Rule) may well be about to come onto the cards.

VinLieger wrote: »

Nationalists will **** the bed and rightly so

If it were to happen, it will reignite to troubles

its the missing nuclear option out there which you can bet your bottom dollar will get used . and it has to be soon , the only fix is for SF to go back into Assembly

VinLieger wrote: »

Nationalists will **** the bed and rightly so because this is the DUP's dream and they wont see it as a threat since their 2 major issues irish language act and same sex marriage are likely to come in regardless

AFAIK the Irish Language act wasn't one of the things to come in in October, it was abortion and same sex marriage. don't know why they didn't tag the Irish language act onto it.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Ignore what happens in the UK, in Parliament, in the Press, on the streets of London. We can agree that it is a shambles and no progress was made, ignore that for now and focus on the EU.

What did the extension cost the EU? What would another 1 year extension cost?

Answer - virtually nothing since in the extension period nothing changes.

It costs the EU a lot in terms of its own business that is constantly being sidelined to deal with the UK's little psychodrama. But it also costs the EU member states in terms of continuity of business and uncertainty. And judging by previous behaviour, the UK will just run the next extension down to the wire too. There has to be a cogent, deliverable and short-term reason for the UK to get an extension. Not for more of the same.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

What will No Deal cost the EU? an absolute metric ass-load of cash money as trade with a major partner suffer huge disruption starting Nov 1st.

An extension is an absolute no brainer.

It will suffer disruption, but it will not cease entirely. At worst, there will be a reduction. But the UK is absolutely dependant on EU food imports and many industries are equally dependant on supply from the EU. It will get more expensive for them, but what choice do they have? Any other source will require time and they will be on the back foot in negotiating terms.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

And that is before we consider what No Deal might do to the UK - turning it into a failed state on the EUs doorstep.

An extension will not change that. Not without a defined reason and endpoint. At some point the UK has to decide what they are going to do. Giving them an extension is just pandering to their indecision. And it gives oxygen to the hard brexiters who can renew their screams of betrayal. They have to make a decision and they have to make it now. Johnson's move to close parliament may well focus minds. Let's not take them out of the frying pan to procrastinate even more.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

So, I propose that the EU council ... spells out that a fixed one (or better, two!) year extension is available to the UK if they request it ...

An extension to do what? The UK has had two years and an extra six months to formalise their departure arrangements, and here we are less than two months from Brexit Day (3rd revision) and the British government has decided to suspend parliament at the very moment MPs should be dotting the last i and crossing the last t.

What benefit is it to the EU to indulge the UK's foolishness for another year or two, especially when there are plenty of other (arguably more serious) matters to be dealt with?

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The reality will be worse than the Yellowhammer picture of empty shelves, fuel shortages, port collapse at Dover, civil unrest and troops on the streets.

VinLieger wrote: »

I think you are being very naive, it will take a week or two at least for the full ramifications to be felt and even then trying to get brexiteers to agree this is the fault of brexit and not everyone else they can point a finger at will be nigh impossible.

I agree with VinLieger: there's going to be no sudden meltdown on Nov 1st. Stockpiling means that British shelves will remain full for a month or more; and the EU's unilateral concessions will mean that most travel and trade from the UK will continue as before. The UK has published its schedule of tariffs, so we know that the price of most staples won't increase in the short term.

At the earliest, it will be some time towards the end of the year, more likely well into next year that the real impact is felt, starting with businesses closing -> jobs being lost -> disposable income evaporating -> house prices dropping -> negative equity rearing its head again -> greater demand for national social & health services at a time when the government's revenue is dropping -> government needs to borrow at unfavourable rates -> ballooning national debt -> finally some measure of realisation by the 17.4million that being part of the EU wasn't such a bad thing after all.

BarryD2 wrote: »

So what's your solution then? That the ordinary Irish citizen, taxpayer and consumer will pick up the tab for the sake of ideology?

I'm no lover of the Brits, love nothing more than to see us get one over them on the sports field etc. But I also understand the close links between our countries and as the smaller neighbour, how our bread is buttered. We can't escape our geography or history for that matter.

When this whole business started, I was of the opinion that if Brexit ever came to pass and in particular a no deal Brexit, that Irexit will be an inevitable reality. Maybe not immediately but I think we'll be obliged for many practical reasons to realign ourselves. So the Brits will drag us out too, just like we went into the EEC together, just like the EU framework backs up the GFA.

And do you know what. We've a lot of Euro skeptics here (keeping quiet at the moment) who would be quite happy to see this come to pass. I wouldn't be among them but they've been very prominent in previous referendums and include political figures and parties here.

Oh you’re an Irexit guy, your mealy mouthed posts suggested as much. Again, your posts are contradicted by fact:

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/more-than-90-of-irish-people-want-to-stay-in-eu-poll-reveals-1.3488112%3fmode=amp

More than 90% of Irish people want to stay in the EU. Yet again you continue to post nonsense easily contradicted by facts. Why do you persist?

If I hear him say “our friends and partners in the EU” one more time, I will scream.

Johnson is simply trying to limit the number of his own MPs leaking to the other side in any vote in Parliament next week, no other concern.
He'll spin them any ould sh1te.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The EU has had to do virtually nothing on Brexit since Nov 2018. It has just been the UK arguing with itself.

And the "uncertainty" is just uncertainty about when No Deal might happen, with the worst case being... right now.

It's like a soldier under fire saying uncertainty about maybe getting shot is stressful, and the suggested solution is to stand up and volunteer to get shot right now to end the uncertainty.

Every EuCo since then has been taken up by brexit. And there have also been sepcial sessions to deal with it. It's been all-consuming. The uncertainty has also been about whether an agreement can be arrived at. The no deal stuff is still (until it happens) sabre rattling on behalf of the UK. So businesses still don't know for sure if it's no deal, a deal or a revocation coming down the line. Granted a revocation is unlikely, but it's still very possible.

I don't think your analogy really fits. The chances of the UK leaving on no deal and continuing to operate as a sole nation on purely WTO MFN rules (afaik, their schedule split with the EU has still not been agreed) without coming back to the EU for some kind of trade deal in the very near term and having to agree the terms of the WA are (imo) slim to none.

Let's not forget that the WA is just the housekeeping. It's not a trade deal and it's no indication of how the UK will exist outside the EU after the TP. So even if the WA is signed off, two years hence, the same conditions (in terms of our relationship with the UK on purely trade terms) will prevail. Exports to the UK will likely bear tariffs and will involve NTBs and imports weill also carry tariffs and the overhead of NTBs.

To take the cold-eyed and probably callous view: They're leaving, they will be a third country and at that point, it's what benefits the EU most that should be the overriding principle. Leaving them more time to prepare for a hard brexit (if that's their aim) is of no benefit whatsoever to the EU.

In that Sky news link, Johnson IMO, makes a bit of a gaff.

He says they need a deal (he is talking about remain MPs reducing his chances of getting a deal).

Not want, need. Sure it could be reading too much into a specific word (except for the fact that it is true).

He knows No Deal is not a runner, in the way TM knew.

LBC's James O'Brien has what passes for a fiery* monologue this a.m.. My favorite line is, "(Brexiteers) will love it when they get hurt, because Remoaners like James O'Brien will feel sorry for them."

He absolutely destroys the most recent round of true Brexit religion madness, where callers celebrate the PM lying to them.

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/james-obriens-electrifying-monologue-on-the-lies-o/

*: Unfortunately, the intrusive libel/slander laws in the UK and Ireland keep this from being less amusing than the same sort of things you hear in the US media. No one's directly callling anyone names, questioning their parentage, making fun of their physical appearance, etc. Libel's too easy to prove in the UK.