Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Balanadan · 30-08-2019 11:39AM

InTheShadows wrote: »

It's on the way

It's not mate. Do you want someone to call a taxi for you?

fash · 30-08-2019 11:40AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

Can only be changed by unanimous agreement of the UK and the other member states of the EU. In practice this means that the UK has to request an amendment, and the EU-27 have to agree unanimously to give it.

Could an "we need a few weeks extra- here is our unanimous EU Agreement to extend" as a final spike to a "blame for no deal".
Johnson is likely to give a "take or no deal" offer with no time to decide to the EU as a final blame exercise.
A great counter is a "all you need to do is sign" 1 month extension.

ancapailldorcha · 30-08-2019 11:40AM

InTheShadows wrote: »

It's on the way

Balanadan wrote: »

It's not mate. Do you want someone to call a taxi for you?

Enough of this nonsense please.

Limpy · 30-08-2019 11:40AM

Get a grip people.

Countries have survived devastating war's and famines. The world is more advanced now to handle any situation.

The UK and Europe will be fine. Life will go on. Border or backstop.

Peregrinus · 30-08-2019 11:41AM

InTheShadows wrote: »

It's on the way

It's been arriving any day now for the past three-and-a-half years.

Face it, mate. It's like the German auto industry and the Italian prosecco-fermenters. They're not coming to rescue you. They never were. Events consistently and obstinately refuse to unfold as Brexiters predict because Brexiters, basically, are not in touch with reality. Their war is with a fantasy that they have concocted for themselves.

prawnsambo · 30-08-2019 11:42AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

We are down to the wire and they are still eejiting about.

So, I propose that the EU council agrees an extension offer and puts it on the table ready for the Council meeting in Finland on Oct. 17th.

The offer spells out that a fixed one (or better, two!) year extension is available to the UK if they request it any time up to 23:59:59 on Oct 31st. No other extension will be entertained, and any request for a shorter or conditional extension will be rejected.

Over to you, Boris.

An extension of that length would be of no benefit to the EU. The last one was very nearly a non-runner, another one would require something akin to a GE or a referendum to get it across the line. Remember "Do not waste this time"? That wasn't Donald Tusk speaking in a personal capacity. It was a message from the EuCo. They've been wasting this time and Johnson's prorogation is wasting more of it.

j8wk2feszrnpao · 30-08-2019 11:43AM

Limpy wrote: »

Get a grip people.

Countries have survived devastating war's and famines. The world is more advanced now to handle any situation.

The UK and Europe will be fine. Life will go on. Border or backstop.

We're also talking about the effect on people. Brexit isn't ideal for either side. NI for example will take a huge hit, jobs losses, families devastated, health services reduced..... life won't go on for all, that's the problem. Get in touch with reality.

Peregrinus · 30-08-2019 11:45AM

fash wrote: »

Could an "we need a few weeks extra- here is our unanimous EU Agreement to extend" as a final spike to a "blame for no deal".
Johnson is likely to give a "take or no deal" offer with no time to decide to the EU as a final blame exercise.
A great counter is a "all you need to do is sign" 1 month extension.

Not gonna happen. It's true now that all they need to do is sign, and yet they're not signing. No reason for the EU to extend this if nothing has changed to make the UK want to sign, or to make it likely that they will want to sign during the extension. Just reinforces the impression that the EU will grasp at straws to defer a no-deal Brexit, and it is not in the EU's interest to reinforce that impression.

Zubeneschamali · 30-08-2019 11:46AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

All of this conspires to make it very difficult to admit that you have made a mistake, and try to undo the harm.

Yes, but I am suggesting that the Governments (including ours) have seen more realistic projections for what will happen than anything which has been released.

The reality will be worse than the Yellowhammer picture of empty shelves, fuel shortages, port collapse at Dover, civil unrest and troops on the streets.

Dymo · 30-08-2019 11:47AM

lawred2 wrote: »

Fair enough but why would you wait for the government to tell you those things? In a no deal scenario the UK becomes a third country and as such the rules governing trade and commerce with third countries come into play.

These rules are in the public domain and if your business is dependent on UK trade it's in your interest to be already well versed in them.

As for stockpiling - well that's not something an Irish government call tell anyone to do really.. That will be on a case by case basis.

As for alternative supply chains? Sure many many companies have been seeking those since the Brexit vote. Figures speak for themselves - Ireland's dependence on UK imports has been reducing year on year.

Exactly I agree, but it's nine weeks out and the government seems to be letting every company do their own thing it hasn't set out clear guidelines like saying "It's looking like a no deal on the 31st, here is what every company must do." There are import export businesses but also a load of online business dealing with the UK.

I didn't really care 6 months ago and I have faith in the Irish politicians dealing with brexit but I think there comes a time when they will have to accept one outcome and prepare for it.

woejus · 30-08-2019 11:47AM

VinLieger wrote: »

Once October 31st hits everything is wiped off the board and they are starting from scratch, they cannot come cap in hand to the EU asking to get the WA as it wont exist anymore.

This is a question I can't find the answer to : can the EU give The Brits a mulligan and re-admit them on the same terms as before, is there sufficient flexibility in the admittance procedure to put things back the way they were? The "Bobby Ewing Shower" option, so to speak.

Has this been spoken about anywhere?

Charles Babbage · 30-08-2019 11:47AM

Shameful performance by David Quinn on the Pat Kenny show now.
He seems to have been drinking the Brexit Kool-aid.
He reckons that the amount of goods crossing the border are not material in an EU context. But if Irish food polluted with illegal inputs then its reputation will be shot and a small amount of goods in an EU context might be very material if you are a trader in Monaghan or Letterkenny.

Zubeneschamali · 30-08-2019 11:48AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

Just reinforces the impression that the EU will grasp at straws to defer a no-deal Brexit, and it is not in the EU's interest to reinforce that impression.

The EU absolutely should grasp at straws to defer a no deal brexit if the other option is no deal brexit right now.

Pay now or pay in a years time is a no-brainer.

And maybe the horse will learn to sing.

Limpy · 30-08-2019 11:50AM

munstermagic11 wrote: »

We're also talking about the effect on people. Brexit isn't ideal for either side. NI for example will take a huge hit, jobs losses, families devastated, health services reduced..... life won't go on for all, that's the problem. Get in touch with reality.

It's not Armageddon.

People can still fly or work in other countries. I was made redundant myself and like many others we either got a new job or a new skill (education) for new job.

Imreoir2 · 30-08-2019 11:51AM

Limpy wrote: »

Get a grip people.

Countries have survived devastating war's and famines. The world is more advanced now to handle any situation.

The UK and Europe will be fine. Life will go on. Border or backstop.

Countries have survived such things, but plenty of people have not, and it is the impact on ordinary people that should concern us.

lawred2 · 30-08-2019 11:51AM

Limpy wrote: »

Get a grip people.

Countries have survived devastating war's and famines. The world is more advanced now to handle any situation.

The UK and Europe will be fine. Life will go on. Border or backstop.

It's unnecessary crap like Brexit that leads to wars. And people die in wars. And countries disappear in wars.

Brexit will not put anything to bed.

Brexit will be the opening chapter of an even longer deeply unsettling story.

j8wk2feszrnpao · 30-08-2019 11:54AM

Limpy wrote: »

It's not Armageddon.

People can still fly or work in other countries. I was made redundant myself and like many others we either got a new job or a new skill (education) for new job.

I'm not saying it will be. But it's going to have a massive impact on a lot of people's lives. It's not about you, it's about them. I'm sure the 80 year old whose medication may be late will be delighted that they can always just fly somewhere else and get a job/skill/education.

CrabRevolution · 30-08-2019 11:54AM

Limpy wrote: »

Get a grip people.

Countries have survived devastating war's and famines. The world is more advanced now to handle any situation.

The UK and Europe will be fine. Life will go on. Border or backstop.

By that logic we should have no plans or policies or ideas, and also shouldn't discuss anything ever. All because it's not the literal end of the world

"The world is more advanced now"; what does that even mean?

Stop moaning ffs · 30-08-2019 11:55AM

Oh I have to listen to this. On this weeks telegraph choppers Brexit podcast

Nigel Farage: the brexit party could make Boris Johnson a hero
The Brexit Party leader tells Christopher Hope how his candidates could be Boris Johnson’s saving grace and why ‘no-deal’ is the only way forward — plus he reveals what President Trump had to say about the new Prime Minister on his most recent visit to the US.

prawnsambo · 30-08-2019 11:55AM

Limpy wrote: »

Get a grip people.

Countries have survived devastating war's and famines. The world is more advanced now to handle any situation.

The UK and Europe will be fine. Life will go on. Border or backstop.

Countries have not survived wars and famines. The famine here had ramifications that lasted almost a century. And arguably for a lot longer when you take into account the loss of population. As for wars, countries have completely disappeared due to war. Remember Yogoslavia, Tibet, Czechoslovakia, South Vietnam, Biafra and of course Korea? And that's not including countries that existed in the middle ages and are now long gone. Like Schleswig for example.

Stop moaning ffs · 30-08-2019 11:58AM

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Shameful performance by David Quinn on the Pat Kenny show now.
He seems to have been drinking the Brexit Kool-aid.
He reckons that the amount of goods crossing the border are not material in an EU context. But if Irish food polluted with illegal inputs then its reputation will be shot and a small amount of goods in an EU context might be very material if you are a trader in Monaghan or Letterkenny.

Is there no end to David Quinn’s expertises? First women’s wombs then constitutional law re marriage now trade negotiations?? Have I missed any?

Is there no start to his talents more like. Why is this man allowed near a microphone at all?

El Weirdo · 30-08-2019 11:59AM

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Shameful performance by David Quinn on the Pat Kenny show now.
He seems to have been drinking the Brexit Kool-aid.
He reckons that the amount of goods crossing the border are not material in an EU context. But if Irish food polluted with illegal inputs then its reputation will be shot and a small amount of goods in an EU context might be very material if you are a trader in Monaghan or Letterkenny.

Iona Institute David Quinn? Why is he on the radio talking about Bexit? In fact, why is he on the radio talking about anything?

Igotadose · 30-08-2019 11:59AM

Limpy wrote: »

Get a grip people.

Countries have survived devastating war's and famines. The world is more advanced now to handle any situation.

The UK and Europe will be fine. Life will go on. Border or backstop.

But, this one's unnecessary and pulled out of someone's a**e. Life would have gone on fine in the UK, NI and Ireland *without* Brexit. Fine. As in, boring, safe, growing economies, steady jobs.

If you think the world's more advanced now, why are so many people hungry at night? Why do so many live in the street? All the world is *now*, is more crowded.

Igotadose · 30-08-2019 12:00PM

El Weirdo wrote: »

Iona Institute David Quinn? Why is he on the radio talking about Bexit? In fact, why is he on the radio talking about anything?

Because his US backers are putting him up to it. It's why I Own Her does anything.

J Mysterio · 30-08-2019 12:01PM

Cheery comment from Sabine Weyand, EU Director-general for Trade.

https://twitter.com/WeyandSabine/status/1167160383976726528

prawnsambo · 30-08-2019 12:01PM

InTheShadows wrote: »

When the EU screws us over it's going to be epic watching the pro EU media here spin it as a win.

How many times does this trope have to be debunked. The EU screwing us over is the EU screwing the EU over. They rae not divisible. It would be like saying that your golf club is going to screw the members over.

Peregrinus · 30-08-2019 12:03PM

woejus wrote: »

This is a question I can't find the answer to : can the EU give The Brits a mulligan and re-admit them on the same terms as before, is there sufficient flexibility in the admittance procedure to put things back the way they were? The "Bobby Ewing Shower" option, so to speak.

Has this been spoken about anywhere?

Yes, it has been discussed.

Can it be done? It would be extremely difficult. It would require unanimous consent from the EU-27 to recreate the former terms of UK membership, which would involve several departures from current rules about admission to membership. (E.g. the current rules require new members to commit to adopting the euro as their currency.)

I'm not saying it couldn't be done but, politically, it seems extremely unlikely. All member states would have to agree not to press for, um, tweaks to the UK's terms of membership that might benefit them, and they they wouldn't get a similar chance to press for. Plus, over all this, there's be considerable ambivalence about taking the UK back at all, if it was thought that they might carry on with the whingeing and throwing toys out of the pram. There's a widely-held view in the EU that the UK is currently a failing state, and they might prefer the UK to stabilise itself a bit and address some of the issues that have brought it to this pass before they welcome it back into the fold.

BarryD2 · 30-08-2019 12:06PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

So role over for the Brexit cabal is your answer?

If we did that Britain would kick us around forever more even though we are part of the world's largest single market.

Brexit is not our choice and we have to stand up for ourselves or be walked over.

So what's your solution then? That the ordinary Irish citizen, taxpayer and consumer will pick up the tab for the sake of ideology?

I'm no lover of the Brits, love nothing more than to see us get one over them on the sports field etc. But I also understand the close links between our countries and as the smaller neighbour, how our bread is buttered. We can't escape our geography or history for that matter.

When this whole business started, I was of the opinion that if Brexit ever came to pass and in particular a no deal Brexit, that Irexit will be an inevitable reality. Maybe not immediately but I think we'll be obliged for many practical reasons to realign ourselves. So the Brits will drag us out too, just like we went into the EEC together, just like the EU framework backs up the GFA.

And do you know what. We've a lot of Euro skeptics here (keeping quiet at the moment) who would be quite happy to see this come to pass. I wouldn't be among them but they've been very prominent in previous referendums and include political figures and parties here.

prawnsambo · 30-08-2019 12:07PM

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Shameful performance by David Quinn on the Pat Kenny show now.
He seems to have been drinking the Brexit Kool-aid.
He reckons that the amount of goods crossing the border are not material in an EU context. But if Irish food polluted with illegal inputs then its reputation will be shot and a small amount of goods in an EU context might be very material if you are a trader in Monaghan or Letterkenny.

What's his thesis though? If he's suggesting that we don't have checks on the border, that's actually a reasonable one. In the short term, the volumes would be so small and the possibility of 'inferior' food products getting into the system would be non-existent until the UK got some sort of trade deal with a supplier of such food. By that time, they would be quite willing to treat the island of Ireland as part of the EU SM and ensure no such contamination occurs. Very little goes through Larne as it is.

Zubeneschamali · 30-08-2019 12:08PM

Limpy wrote: »

The world is more advanced now to handle any situation.

Have a read of summaries of the Yellowhammer report.

Boris and co. have said this is a worst case scenario, so it is safe to say that's a lie and they seen projections for much, much worse than that.

Add in a crisis in the City, panic buying, hoarding and price gouging, fuel rationing on forecourts, mass layoffs from shuttered JIT factories, and then the Police kill a young black rioter/looter...

Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

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