Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

VinLieger · 29-08-2019 11:27PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

You can get even money on a crash out.

Sitting happily with my no deal brexit in 2019 at 13/5 which they dont seem to be offerring odds on anymore

Professor Moriarty · 29-08-2019 11:30PM

VinLieger wrote: »

Sitting happily with my no deal brexit in 2019 at 13/5 which they dont seem to be offerring odds on anymore

You can get odds on No Deal still. Best you'll get is 11/8 now.

Bit cynical · 29-08-2019 11:34PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

You can get even money on a crash out.

They have No (Withdrawal Agreement is ratified, Article 50 extended beyond 2019 or Article 50 revoked) 4/6

Uk leaves without a deal 11/10.

This translates to 57% and 43%.

Frank Bullitt · 29-08-2019 11:34PM

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1167201796567134208

I think he really really really believes this will happen, which makes it all the more scarier.

New Deal has to fall into the category of unicorns at this stage.

Professor Moriarty · 29-08-2019 11:36PM

Bit cynical wrote: »

They have No (Withdrawal Agreement is ratified, Article 50 extended beyond 2019 or Article 50 revoked) 4/6

Uk leaves without a deal 11/10.

This translates to 43% and 57%.

This means that Paddy power think leaving without a deal is more likely than leaving under whatever circumstances in 2019!

Money to be made there I think.

I'm not sure I follow. 4/6 is more likely to happen than 11/10.

ancapailldorcha · 29-08-2019 11:43PM

Posts with insults deleted.

Capt'n Midnight · 29-08-2019 11:43PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Looking at Newsnight, a Scottish Independence referendum is beginning to hove back into view.
If the Cons and Labour implode there London won't be able to resist one.

Count taking place in Shetland by-election
The result is expected to be announced at 2.30am on Friday morning.

Be interesting to see how the SNP do in a safe Lib Dem seat. Will probably say more about Scottish Independence than about Brexit.

Water John · 29-08-2019 11:48PM

Weak Lib Dem candidate, so hard to read any results for outcome.

Bit cynical · 29-08-2019 11:51PM

reslfj wrote: »

I commented to "I don't think there's any problem with the EU in a no deal scenario"

You don't seem to understand that the EU27 has absolute all the 'cards' after a 'No Deal' Brexit. The UK will shortly after Brexit urgently need a deal in very many areas.

The EU27 simply will not even begin any negotiations before all the core WA text has been ratified by the UK. The EU27 will likely demand additional demanding text to be included.

This will not involve any negotiation but simply being an EU27 demand, the UK must ratify or stay in 'dire straits' - sinking deeper and deeper.

The EU27 is diplomatic but not nice nor 'sweet' when it believes it deals with non trustworthy counterpart. We in the EU27 owe the UK absolutely not any deal. You - the UK - ask nicely, ratify and we just might negotiate.

Lars

Note.
The EU27 is so much larger, has a hugely larger economy and has its fantastic SM and 60+ world class FTAs + other international deals. The EU27 will remain very strong - give or take a world recession.

I would agree with you that the EU is in a much stronger negotiating position than the UK. I would argue that it is slightly less strong after a no deal than in the lead up to the 31st October.

However the question was in the event of no deal and the EU being worried about EU citizens rights in the UK, is there anything standing in the way of the EU doing a deal on this one issue?

The answer is that there is not. The EU could if they wanted do such a deal and the UK probably would be accommodating given that they want to keep existing EU citizens anyway.

I agree that the EU probably would not initiate such a deal. Given their superior negotiating position, it is possible to lump EU citizens rights in with other things they want. EU citizens rights is not a big enough issue on its own from the EU perspective.

Imreoir2 · 29-08-2019 11:56PM

Bit cynical wrote: »

I agree that the EU probably would not initiate such a deal. Given their superior negotiating position, it is possible to lump EU citizens rights in with other things they want. EU citizens rights is not a big enough issue on its own from the EU perspective.

The EU has made clear that there will be no-deals in a no-deal scenario. It will be up to each side to implement their own unilateral measures to protect themselves and their interests. While the lack of a deal on cirtizens rights is quite regretable, it is not seen as a fundemental threat to the human rights of EU citizens in the UK. The UK is still a somewhat respected western democracy and is unlikely to round up EU citizens and put them into camps.

Water John · 30-08-2019 12:01AM

Well Johnson has stepped up the talks with the EU. It's really urgent to get a deal before Oct 31st, so they'll now meet, twice a week!!!

Bit cynical · 30-08-2019 12:01AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I'm not sure I follow. 4/6 is more likely to happen than 11/10.

Yes you are right. My mistake.

Also Irishproduce was correct with his percentages. Roughly 60 percent leave.

WhiteMan32 · 30-08-2019 12:07AM

With the House of Commons returning from recess on Tuesday next (3rd Sept), anyone know if Johnson will be facing PMQs on the following day? While I lack confidence in Corbyn striking any knockout punch at the despatch box, Theresa May's successor urgently needs to be strongly tackled by opposition MPs.

OOORRRDDEERR............

Imreoir2 · 30-08-2019 12:11AM

WhiteMan32 wrote: »

With the House of Commons returning from recess on Tuesday next (3rd Sept), anyone know if Johnson will be facing PMQs on the following day? While I lack confidence in Corbyn striking any knockout punch at the despatch box, Theresa May's successor urgently needs to be strongly tackled by opposition MPs.

OOORRRDDEERR............

He needs to be tackeled even moreso by hs own rebel backbenchers. It seems quite possible that he can't actually command a majority in the house.

Water John · 30-08-2019 12:15AM

PMQ won't be the point of success/failure. Introduction and passing legislation in the short time frame is key. The biggest stumbling block may possibly be the House of Lords. Amendments and delay tactics might mean it would run out of time before poroging, as the legislation would then fall. Some are already preparing to keep it open over the weekend to ensure its passed.

Then we introduced the filibuster to Parliament, re; Joseph Biggar.

declanflynn · 30-08-2019 12:28AM

Bit cynical wrote: »

irishproduce wrote: »

Paddy power think there's a 65% chance the UK leaves this year and a 42% chance that they don't.
Make of that what you will.

Currently odds are 8/15 leave and 11/8 not leave in 2019.

https://www.paddypower.com/politics/uk-brexit

Ignoring the profit margin for PP, this translates to 62% leave and 38%.

I think you have that wrong

reslfj · 30-08-2019 12:39AM

Bit cynical wrote: »

... is there anything standing in the way of the EU doing a deal on this one issue?

The answer is that there is not. The EU could if they wanted do such a deal and the UK probably would be accommodating given that they want to keep existing EU citizens anyway.

How often must we write this?: The EU27 will not negotiate anything - not anything - now covered in treaties ceasing with A50 on Oct 31.

The EU27 will - apart from the planned unilateral EU27 actions - not do any deals or mini-deals with the UK before the core of the WA text is ratified.

This includes

EU+UK citizens rights when not living in home country
The £39bn or whatever the amount is on Brexit day
The backstop - as in the WA or possible the Irish Sea version.
Other smaller things from the WA (e.g. Geographical Indications)

Post Brexit the EU27 do not ask - the EU27 commands the UK to ratify the text it wants.

"Do or die" - to quote the UK PM. And don't for even a minute believe that we - the EU27 citizens - will be afraid of watching the UK "die", if its stubborn stupidity prevails.

Lars

Bit cynical · 30-08-2019 12:47AM

reslfj wrote: »

How often must we write this?: The EU27 will not negotiate anything - not anything - now covered in treaties ceasing with A50 on Oct 31.

Until you understand the point being made. It is the choice of the EU to insist on this. It is not forced on them. If a particular issue is sufficiently important to them they may if they choose do a deal specific to that. If you are arguing that they won't change, that is fine, but it is not the question I am addressing.

reslfj · 30-08-2019 01:07AM

Bit cynical wrote: »

Until you understand the point being made. It is the choice of the EU to insist on this. It is not forced on them. If a particular issue is sufficiently important to them they may if they choose do a deal specific to that. If you are arguing that they won't change, that is fine, but it is not the question I am addressing.

The EU27 will not change the WA - 'No Deal' is not an acceptable option for the EU27 on the point I listed. If this is not what the UK will agree to - the EU27 will simply 'kill' the UK's economy as fast and for the UK as expensively as possible. The EU27 will then just wait for a 'begging UK' in 'its Canossa castle' (these days relocated to Brussels)

We have to get all the core WA points ratified by the UK and we will use all available means to speed up this action.

Little England will post Brexit be a rule-taker, so please start taking rules

Lars

PS! It will only be more difficult for the UK in the following negotiating phases. You are on the "sunny uplands" - except there will be absolutely no sun for the UK.

kowloon · 30-08-2019 01:33AM

BBC wrote:

Boris Johnson has promised a renewed effort to secure a deal with the EU before the Brexit deadline.

The UK's Brexit negotiators will now meet their EU counterparts twice a week next month, in the run up to a crucial summit on October 17-18.

If the EU won't reopen negotiations, what exactly happens at these meetings?

Rjd2 · 30-08-2019 02:04AM

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1167201796567134208

I think he really really really believes this will happen, which makes it all the more scarier.

New Deal has to fall into the category of unicorns at this stage.

I'd not take Tom seriously. He is one of the Guido Fawkes reporters who are very much in the pocket of Boris as the leadership election proved.

Pretty much would say the same about the Novara media, Owen Jones when it comes to Corbyn also.

These are not serious journos.

Bit cynical · 30-08-2019 02:04AM

kowloon wrote: »

My favourite was the 'dead pets have to be pressure cooked before burial' one.

Another one was "EU to employ sniffers to make sure manure smells the same". One of Boris's I think.

Peregrinus · 30-08-2019 03:51AM

Mother of God!

https://twitter.com/SteveBarclay/status/1166765868891725825
"We need to start talks now" about something they needed to work out three years ago, before deciding to vote for Brexit, even assuming leaving with a deal. "We need to start talks now" about how do so something that, in a no-deal Brexit, absolutely cannot be done.

Words fail me. This guy is supposed to be the Brexit Secretary.

Patser · 30-08-2019 06:16AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

Mother of God!

https://twitter.com/SteveBarclay/status/1166765868891725825
"We need to start talks now" about something they needed to work out three years ago, before deciding to vote for Brexit, even assuming leaving with a deal. "We need to start talks now" about how do so something that, in a no-deal Brexit, absolutely cannot be done.

Words fail me. This guy is supposed to be the Brexit Secretary.

It is scary. We need to talk on how to do a deal on these things, in case of no deal. Does he not see the contradiction - we need a deal for no deal, but then it's not no deal as you have a deal.....

Unless we're back to cherrypicking what they want to keep, and what they don't want.

Thargor · 30-08-2019 07:11AM

Water John wrote: »

Well Johnson has stepped up the talks with the EU. It's really urgent to get a deal before Oct 31st, so they'll now meet, twice a week!!!

I thought he wasn't going to meet any EU members until they got rid of the undemocratic backstop?

lawred2 · 30-08-2019 07:21AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

Mother of God!

https://twitter.com/SteveBarclay/status/1166765868891725825
"We need to start talks now" about something they needed to work out three years ago, before deciding to vote for Brexit, even assuming leaving with a deal. "We need to start talks now" about how do so something that, in a no-deal Brexit, absolutely cannot be done.

Words fail me. This guy is supposed to be the Brexit Secretary.

I suppose this is a direct consequence of their arrogant and foolhardy belief that the EU needed them more than they need the EU and that the EU would fold at any minute... Maybe there is a creeping realisation that the foundations for their bravado were not quite so solid!

Tacitus Kilgore · 30-08-2019 07:27AM

Patser wrote: »

It is scary. We need to talk on how to do a deal on these things, in case of no deal. Does he not see the contradiction - we need a deal for no deal, but then it's not no deal as you have a deal.....

Unless we're back to cherrypicking what they want to keep, and what they don't want.

Like an awful lot of the British public, he seems to think that no deal is "no to May's deal - but obviously there will be loads of mini deals to keep us going ok because we are so importan"

The rest of the world/EU however knows exactly what it means.

Peregrinus · 30-08-2019 07:30AM

lawred2 wrote: »

I suppose this is a direct consequence of their arrogant and foolhardy belief that the EU needed them more than they need the EU and that the EU would fold at any minute... Maybe there is a creeping realisation that the foundations for their bravado were not quite so solid!

It's worse that that. Once May decided, in November 2016, that Brexit meant leaving the Customs Union and the Single Market, the motor industry's business model was broken. Even if there's a withdrawal agreement, followed seamlessly by a free trade agreement, with the UK out of the CU and the SM the frictionless invisible borders that the motor industry depends on will no longer exist. Thus, an alternative business model for the motor industry needed to be developed before that decision was made.

It simply beggars belief that, even at this stage, Barclay could be unaware of this. It's a graphic illustration of the staggering degree of ignorance on which support for Brexit depends.

lawred2 · 30-08-2019 07:35AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

It's worse that that. Once May decided, in November 2016, that Brexit meant leaving the Customs Union and the Single Market, the motor industry's business model was broken. Even if there's a withdrawal agreement, followed seamlessly by a free trade agreement, with the UK out of the CU and the SM the frictionless invisible borders that the motor industry depends on will no longer exist. Thus, an alternative business model for the motor industry needed to be developed before that decision was made.

It simply beggars belief that, even at this stage, Barclay could be unaware of this. It's a graphic illustration of the staggering degree of ignorance on which support for Brexit depends.

Yeah but I'm sure these lads still believed that they could enjoy all the benefits of the CU and SM with none of the costs or responsibilities... Because... Well simply because they are British.

Borderhopper · 30-08-2019 07:37AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

Mother of God!

https://twitter.com/SteveBarclay/status/1166765868891725825
"We need to start talks now" about something they needed to work out three years ago, before deciding to vote for Brexit, even assuming leaving with a deal. "We need to start talks now" about how do so something that, in a no-deal Brexit, absolutely cannot be done.

Words fail me. This guy is supposed to be the Brexit Secretary.

We really are at “walking into school, trying to get something written down for homework” time. Seriously, though, do we expect anything better? I mean, we don’t have a high opinion of a lot of our own TDs and MLAs, why should the UK have a higher calibre? What the UK have now in government is the dross, basically those who couldn’t hack it otherwise.

This may be a bit Machiavellian, but I’m beginning to come round to the notion that this is a coup. Maybe not a stereotypical army led one, but a coup nonetheless. Any regime that begins democratically, like the Nazis, always slowly ramps it up. “Well lads, oppression, death camps and total war for all!” doesn’t really cut it at the beginning, so they test the waters. They go so far, row back slightly if they have to, but eventually normalise the outrageous. This is seen in the US at the minute, but they have a written constitution to provide some protection. What does the UK have? Will we really give preferential treatment to the UK if this proves to be true?

Turning Europe against each other has been English then British foreign policy since the 16th century at least. I don’t think brexit was actually about trade deals, immigration etc. That’s fodder for the masses. The real reason for brexit was to turn states in the EU against each other, and a tangential benefit would’ve been forcing Ireland out of the EU and back into UKs sphere of influence. Probably not before the referendum, but probably after when the problems were identified and definitely now. This is why the EU must not, cannot bend. It cannot be seen to be giving into madness and threats, and cannot “betray” the smaller countries. More eyes in the world are watching than Britain’s.

Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

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