Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

mattyff · 26-08-2019 12:52PM

no deal looks likely now..no way Europe is going to not have backstop

VinLieger · 26-08-2019 12:54PM

BarryD2 wrote: »

That's what May thought too and look where it got her.

In truth, I think our fate lies in the hands of the more reasonable Tories. Come September and we'll see what they're prepared to do to undermine Boris's exit strategy, even at the cost of their own careers. Not a great position to be in.

Our position is just as dishonest as the Brits. They want to leave the EU but enjoy the benefits of trade with the EU. We want to stay in the EU but continue to enjoy the benefits of trade with the UK.

Both positions are impossible and that's why we hear our government leaders waffling whenever they are challenged as to what will happen with the border if the UK leave without a deal.

Stop reading the express and telegraph

farmchoice · 26-08-2019 12:55PM

BarryD2 wrote: »

That's what May thought too and look where it got her.

In truth, I think our fate lies in the hands of the more reasonable Tories. Come September and we'll see what they're prepared to do to undermine Boris's exit strategy, even at the cost of their own careers. Not a great position to be in.

Our position is just as dishonest as the Brits. They want to leave the EU but enjoy the benefits of trade with the EU. We want to stay in the EU but continue to enjoy the benefits of trade with the UK.

Both positions are impossible and that's why we hear our government leaders waffling whenever they are challenged as to what will happen with the border if the UK leave without a deal.

''Our position is just as dishonest as the Brits. They want to leave the EU but enjoy the benefits of trade with the EU. We want to stay in the EU but continue to enjoy the benefits of trade with the UK''.

thats not our position, our position is we expect the UK to honor their commitments under the Good friday Agreement, an international treaty to which they are a signatory.
an agreement that is the corner stone to peace on this Island. there are many many people walking around Ireland and the UK today who would be dead if it were not for that treaty. maybe i'm one of them? maybe you are too?

listermint · 26-08-2019 12:57PM

Lackadaisical wrote: »

I'm a bit worried that all this focus on the backstop is going to damage FDI into Ireland. I spent Sunday explaining to a US guy and someone from Asia, both quite senior in a multinationals but relatively light on political knowledge, that Ireland is extremely unlikely to slide out of the EU.

They're hearing the British rumors that Ireland might leave the customs union to facilitate the frictionless border with the UK to avoid Northern Ireland issues and they're unsure whether or not to take them seriously.

A lot of these companies already feel they've been very badly burnt by the UK's domestic political insanity, which they underestimated, and they're becoming very conservative about investment decisions, especially in the light of Trump's war tendencies causing global instability.

The Irish Government needs to be very, very, very careful about combating those kinds of rumors as they are getting picked up and it'll drive potential investment to the continent or cause hesitation at the very least.

Large portion of Senior Execs in the top Multinationals in Europe and HQ'd out of Ireland are Irish, So i find this position not something that is widespread. You may have just been speaking to someone who doesnt know whats going on past his own front door.

jimmycrackcorm · 26-08-2019 12:59PM

listermint wrote: »

Large portion of Senior Execs in the top Multinationals in Europe and HQ'd out of Ireland are Irish, So i find this position not something that is widespread. You may have just been speaking to someone who doesnt know whats going on past his own front door.

Id also think that any FDI is undertaken with a lot more diligence than just an opinion.

Seth Brundle · 26-08-2019 01:02PM

mattyff wrote: »

no deal looks likely now..no way Europe is going to not have backstop

The EU was never going to renege on the backstop if the UK red lines remained. Why would the EU change their mind for a troublesome member as they leave the union?

BarryD2 · 26-08-2019 01:03PM

CelticRambler wrote: »

No, we can't move the island, but being an island, we can move the supply chains.

Yes no doubt, but at what cost? Both in terms of transport but also time for perishable goods and so on?

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

We trade far less with the UK than we do Europe and the World as a whole. Our access to the Single Market and integration to the EU is far more important to the economy than our direct links to England.

I have no doubt that we do trade more with the EU and rest of the world compared to the UK. But what is the nature of that trade is the question? Is it the sort of trade that involves food and goods that most ordinary people need for everyday life? Or is it financial services, profit shifting, intellectual property rights, pharmaceuticals and so on?

VinLieger wrote: »

Secondly we are literally rated 1st for food security in the world. We produce enough food to feed 34 million people, the Uk only produces enough food to feed about 60 % of its population so empty shelves and shortages is not gonna ever be a thing for us

?? Are we all to live on baby formula? That's what we largely produce food wise - milk and dairy products. Our horticultural industry has declined over recent decades. Milk is what we largely make and cattle to eat.

InTheShadows · 26-08-2019 01:04PM

mattyff wrote: »

no deal looks likely now..no way Europe is going to not have backstop

Money makes the world go round. At the end of the day the EU don't give a toss about Ireland. They'll do what's best for the big boys.

FrancieBrady · 26-08-2019 01:11PM

InTheShadows wrote: »

Money makes the world go round. At the end of the day the EU don't give a toss about Ireland. They'll do what's best for the big boys.

The EU again as the big dark sinister organisation that is distinct from us. WE ARE THE EU.

Please stop with the unhelpful tin foil hat stuff.

Imreoir2 · 26-08-2019 01:13PM

InTheShadows wrote: »

Money makes the world go round. At the end of the day the EU don't give a toss about Ireland. They'll do what's best for the big boys.

European solidarity and protecting the integrity of the single market is what is best for the big boys. If the EU was going to throw Ireland under the bus in all this, they would have done so by now. It's just not going to happen.

BarryD2 · 26-08-2019 01:15PM

farmchoice wrote: »

thats not our position, our position is we expect the UK to honor their commitments under the Good friday Agreement, an international treaty to which they are a signatory.

I'm inclined to disagree - we were smart, we got our foot in the door first and worked the withdrawal agreement so as to use the Good Friday Agreement to help maintain the open borders that we aspire to with the UK. It was a good tactic as long as the British government were happy to work towards a soft Brexit. It's not so smart if the lunatics have taken hold of the asylum and are prepared to get out at any cost. Because we're taking proportionately a significantly bigger hit than our EU friends. And no I don't read the English trash papers - just try and look at the situation sensibly.

Mind you, I don't think we can back out of that position now without losing a lot of face. We've burnt our bridges and have to to trust in the interests of 'strangers'.

First Up · 26-08-2019 01:15PM

BarryD2 wrote: »

Yes no doubt, but at what cost? Both in terms of transport but also time for perishable goods and so on?

I have no doubt that we do trade more with the EU and rest of the world compared to the UK. But what is the nature of that trade is the question? Is it the sort of trade that involves food and goods that most ordinary people need for everyday life? Or is it financial services, profit shifting, intellectual property rights, pharmaceuticals and so on?

?? Are we all to live on baby formula? That's what we largely produce food wise - milk and dairy products. Our horticultural industry has declined over recent decades. Milk is what we largely make and cattle to eat.

Re-routing supply chains to by-pass the UK is fairly straightforward. We already have numerous direct routes that can be furthered expanded. There may be some disruption while suppliers adjust but stuff will get here.

Replacing stuff that originates in the UK will be more complicated but retailers have an intense dislike of empty shelves.

26-08-2019 01:16PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Fascinating article here in FT arguing that Liverpool is less eurosceptic than other parts of Northern England due to the longstanding boycott of the Sun.

https://www.ft.com/content/ffdb6e8c-c5c8-11e9-a8e9-296ca66511c9

It doesn't mention that Manchester just up the road without a boycott was even more strongly pro-Remain though.

Imreoir2 · 26-08-2019 01:16PM

BarryD2 wrote: »

Yes no doubt, but at what cost? Both in terms of transport but also time for perishable goods and so on?

Food prices may rise, but I don't think there is any credible danger of food shortages here, we can bypass the UK as necessary. It may involve greater costs to do so, and that cost will be passed on to the consumer, but that will be the extent of it.

Dytalus · 26-08-2019 01:16PM

BarryD2 wrote: »

I have no doubt that we do trade more with the EU and rest of the world compared to the UK. But what is the nature of that trade is the question? Is it the sort of trade that involves food and goods that most ordinary people need for everyday life? Or is it financial services, profit shifting, intellectual property rights, pharmaceuticals and so on?

Pharmaceuticals are by far our most valuable export.

The largest category of exports was Medical and pharmaceutical products. Exports of these goods accounted for a third (33%) of all exports,

Source.

Most of that goes to Belgium as I understand it, who is our largest export partner within the EU (Germany comes second) and with whom a new shipping route has been developed using the world's largest RoRo ship.

Imreoir2 · 26-08-2019 01:18PM

BarryD2 wrote: »

Mind you, I don't think we can back out of that position now without losing a lot of face. We've burnt our bridges and have to to trust in the interests of 'strangers'.

Which strangers are these? Enough of the criptic waffel, talk plainly and say what you mean.

prawnsambo · 26-08-2019 01:19PM

BarryD2 wrote: »

Yes no doubt, but at what cost? Both in terms of transport but also time for perishable goods and so on?

There is very little appreciable difference in time between RoRo shipping via sea routes and the landbridge. The landbridge is convenient, but it also raises issues with tachographs if there are any delays. Sea shipping routes range between 16 hours and 36 hours. Cost differentilas are negligible and sometimes cheaper since you're not paying a driver to accompany a load.

BarryD2 wrote: »

I have no doubt that we do trade more with the EU and rest of the world compared to the UK. But what is the nature of that trade is the question? Is it the sort of trade that involves food and goods that most ordinary people need for everyday life? Or is it financial services, profit shifting, intellectual property rights, pharmaceuticals and so on?

Are you talking about exports or imports. It's hard to know from what you're saying. If you want to know, the figures for June 2019 from the CSO are here.

BarryD2 wrote: »

?? Are we all to live on baby formula? That's what we largely produce food wise - milk and dairy products. Our horticultural industry has declined over recent decades. Milk is what we largely make and cattle to eat.

Well (from the figures I linked above) we exported €24 million worth of fruit and vegetables in June. So we must be producing something other than dairy and beef. Plus €44 million of fish and €40 million of cereals.

Strazdas · 26-08-2019 01:20PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The EU again as the big dark sinister organisation that is distinct from us. WE ARE THE EU.

Please stop with the unhelpful tin foil hat stuff.

100% : I've seen Brexiteers in comments sections describe the EU as a "foreign power" trying to subjugate the UK. They actually believe the EU = Nazi Germany or Soviet Union stuff.

If you are an EU citizen and don't object to its existence, you are the EU. Every person across the continent is part of the union.

BarryD2 · 26-08-2019 01:20PM

Imreoir2 wrote: »

European solidarity and protecting the integrity of the single market is what is best for the big boys. If the EU was going to throw Ireland under the bus in all this, they would have done so by now. It's just not going to happen.

They don't need to throw us under the bus! We're lying down on the road and the bus has just turned the corner and is headed our way!

First Up wrote: »

Re-routing supply chains to by-pass the UK is fairly straightforward. We already have numerous direct routes that can be furthered expanded. There may be some disruption while suppliers adjust but stuff will get here.

Replacing stuff that originates in the UK will be more complicated but retailers have an intense dislike of empty shelves.

OK, but again Irish consumers will surely expect increases in their cost of living. It always costs more when you live on an island, whether that's us off on the western edge of Europe or some offshore island of our own. Just a fact of trade, small markets, transport.

Seth Brundle · 26-08-2019 01:23PM

InTheShadows wrote: »

Money makes the world go round. At the end of the day the EU don't give a toss about Ireland. They'll do what's best for the big boys.

Aah would you stop with the nonsense. This rubbish pops up every other day and is quickly shown to be the nonsense it is!

Leroy42 · 26-08-2019 01:25PM

BarryD2 wrote: »

I'm inclined to disagree - we were smart, we got our foot in the door first and worked the withdrawal agreement so as to use the Good Friday Agreement to help maintain the open borders that we aspire to with the UK. It was a good tactic as long as the British government were happy to work towards a soft Brexit. It's not so smart if the lunatics have taken hold of the asylum and are prepared to get out at any cost. Because we're taking proportionately a significantly bigger hit than our EU friends. And no I don't read the English trash papers - just try and look at the situation sensibly.

Mind you, I don't think we can back out of that position now without losing a lot of face. We've burnt our bridges and have to to trust in the interests of 'strangers'.

So what is the alternative? What should Ireland have done?

Limpy · 26-08-2019 01:26PM

Leo et al went all in from the get go. The UK will leave without a deal and we will be worse off. Ireland have more in common with the UK then any other nation, but we are treating them like they are from the other side of the world.

We could of agreed a deal between the two governments due to the northern Ireland situation.

Instead the government and the EU are trying to stop Brexit by all means.

prawnsambo · 26-08-2019 01:27PM

BarryD2 wrote: »

I'm inclined to disagree - we were smart, we got our foot in the door first and worked the withdrawal agreement so as to use the Good Friday Agreement to help maintain the open borders that we aspire to with the UK. It was a good tactic as long as the British government were happy to work towards a soft Brexit. It's not so smart if the lunatics have taken hold of the asylum and are prepared to get out at any cost. Because we're taking proportionately a significantly bigger hit than our EU friends. And no I don't read the English trash papers - just try and look at the situation sensibly.

You seem to have missed the step in the negotiations where we were quite happy (as was the EU generally) to have the backstop in the Irish Sea. In other words an open border with NI only. For the obvious reasons. It was the UK that wanted to expand that to the UK as a whole, to which the EU reluctantly agreed. So you're starting from a misconception and running off down the wrong road with it.

Leroy42 · 26-08-2019 01:28PM

Limpy wrote: »

Leo et al went all in from the get go. The UK will leave without a deal and we will be worse off. Ireland have more in common with the UK then any other nation, but we are treating them like they are from the other side of the world.

We could of agreed a deal between the two governments due to the northern Ireland situation.

Instead the government and the EU are trying to stop Brexit by all means.

So your position is that to protect the continually decreasing importance UK market to our overall we should have ditched our membership of the EU?

briany · 26-08-2019 01:30PM

Brilliant video by I'm Incorrigible on Youtube this week where he shows Farage saying that he believed that the UK would end up with a Norway-style deal, which was *not* what the people of the UK voted for. Then, he cuts immediately to Farage before the referendum, repeatedly saying how good a Norway-style deal would be for the UK.

The man's a craven liar. Talking out both sides of his mouth.

storker · 26-08-2019 01:32PM

InTheShadows wrote: »

Money makes the world go round. At the end of the day the EU don't give a toss about Ireland. They'll do what's best for the big boys.

Please be specific...who exactly are the big boys for whom the EU would shaft Ireland?

prawnsambo · 26-08-2019 01:34PM

Limpy wrote: »

Leo et al went all in from the get go. The UK will leave without a deal and we will be worse off. Ireland have more in common with the UK then any other nation, but we are treating them like they are from the other side of the world.

We could of agreed a deal between the two governments due to the northern Ireland situation.

Instead the government and the EU are trying to stop Brexit by all means.

We couldn't have agreed a deal between the two countries. The UK isn't leaving us, it's leaving the EU. Hence it's an EU negotiation and strangely enough, Article 50 is in the Lisbon Treaty. The EU (y'know - that body that the UK is leaving) have agreed a withdrawal agreement with the UK (the country that is leaving the EU) that protects that other thing that the UK agreed to (the GFA) and is now looking on bemused as the UK threatens to break the GFA and renege on all its other obligations that it agreed to honour. But somehow it's all our fault?

dancingwith · 26-08-2019 01:34PM

Funny how some people are blaming the EU for trying to block Brexit when its the British parliament that's actually being blocking it

Dytalus · 26-08-2019 01:35PM

Limpy wrote: »

Leo et al went all in from the get go. The UK will leave without a deal and we will be worse off. Ireland have more in common with the UK then any other nation, but we are treating them like they are from the other side of the world.

If we were treating them like "any other nation" Brexit would likely be done by now. It is precisely because of the close relationship (and history) that getting a deal was so essential.

We could of agreed a deal between the two governments due to the northern Ireland situation.

Nope. For all border/trade/customs issues the EU acts as a single body. As a result, larger nations cannot steamroll the smaller ones. Without the backing of the other EU member states, Ireland would have had no leverage in trade or border negotiations with the UK.

They'd have been calling all the shots and we'd have nothing to hold our own with.

Instead the government and the EU are trying to stop Brexit by all means.

By what means?

The backstop was a UK invention. The EU has had less red lines than the UK, and has (grudgingly) accepted that it must bend its own rules to accept the Northern Ireland situation. No other nation in the world would get the same kind of treatment from the EU. They've compromised as much as they are willing, and as much as they are allowed to (by law). The Withdrawal Agreement was signed and agreed by their executive. Only their parliament refused to ratify it.

So....by what means is this anything other than a problem of the UK's own invention?

First Up · 26-08-2019 01:36PM

BarryD2 wrote: »

OK, but again Irish consumers will surely expect increases in their cost of living. It always costs more when you live on an island, whether that's us off on the western edge of Europe or some offshore island of our own. Just a fact of trade, small markets, transport.

Taking the UK out of distribution and supply chains may add cost but it won't stop goods getting here.

And I wouldn't underestimate the ingenuity of suppliers.

Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

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