Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

PropJoe10

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

FT and Times both reporting tomorrow that Johnson was told it is "squarely and firmly" up to Britain to present it's alternative to the backstop. It also quotes EU sources as saying Johnson will now take the blame for no deal, not the EU.

The officials are quoted as saying what we already know - "The brutal fact is there is nothing in terms of a workable solution".

It really just reinforces what I've suspected for a while - a civilised and orderly Brexit is unworkable and impossible due to the Irish border. It remains to be seen whether the British will stand by its commitments to the GFA.

Leroy42

But its telling that Johnson has moved fully onto the blame game.

He knows he can't deliver any alternative, he knows he is backed into a corner, so the only way out is to claim he is a victim

And it simply continues the Brexiteers narrative that poor old UK are being taken advantage of. Safe in the knowledge that the opposition and media will never actually ask why they are so easily bettered, when apparently France and Germany always get their way.

Bit cynical

Tell me how wrote: »

Or were politicians always charlatans, but by virtue of commanding a HoC majority, they could appear to know what they were doing.

In fairness, we in Ireland elected Bertie Ahern on several occasions. Boris is a bit like Bertie in some respects but with brains and education.

Strazdas

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

FT and Times both reporting tomorrow that Johnson was told it is "squarely and firmly" up to Britain to present it's alternative to the backstop. It also quotes EU sources as saying Johnson will now take the blame for no deal, not the EU.

The officials are quoted as saying what we already know - "The brutal fact is there is nothing in terms of a workable solution".

The problem with the Irish border is that it would be a complete nightmare to man with a "technological" system. Hundred of crossing points and the border going through people's fields, gardens and even houses.

It's a virtual impossibility for the Brexiteers to keep the border open with No Deal.

reslfj

rogue-entity wrote: »

....
....hinge on being able to deviate (particularly in the case of the US) on EU standards and regulations, a customs union would prevent that.

Standards and regulations is not prevented by a CU, but by being in the SM - like EEA/Switzerland.

CU membership will prevent independent trade deals, but such trade deals are very much Unicorns in a UK context.

Lars

Christy42

Bit cynical wrote: »

In fairness, we in Ireland elected Bertie Ahern on several occasions. Boris is a bit like Bertie in some respects but with brains and education.

Bertie had brains. Didn't always use them for the benefit of others but he had them. When it suited his career he did well in various positions and did well with the EU presidency.

Unfortunately didn't look out for the country and cared about his own pockets too much. However he was not the firebrand nationalist type like Boris.

ThePanjandrum

Water John wrote: »

Beth Rigby, Sky, really giving Johnson a massive grilling. Brilliant, and a lesson for the other pseudo journalists how to do it.

I heard it on LBC (I think). Basically she asked him a question, he said a couple of words and she interrupted and asked another question ad nauseam.

If I'd have been in his place I'd probably have told her to do the whole interview herself as she obviously wasn't bothered to hear what he said.

It was Rigby showboating and wasting an interview.

J Mysterio

Boris said if there is a No Deal it is the fault of the EU. He also said UK wouldnt have serious problems in ND and it would be just a 'bump in the road'. He didnt expect there would be any food shortages and the UK would not pay 39B in a ND Brexit. All the while he has been getting on famously with Trump.

So - basically - he is full of sh1t. The relationship between Trump and Britain Trump is disturbing, particularly given Boris' outrageous comments.

allthedoyles

Boris also said '' the people want a no deal ''

Enzokk

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

I heard it on LBC (I think). Basically she asked him a question, he said a couple of words and she interrupted and asked another question ad nauseam.

If I'd have been in his place I'd probably have told her to do the whole interview herself as she obviously wasn't bothered to hear what he said.

It was Rigby showboating and wasting an interview.

Is this the interview?

When you interview Johnson you have to be careful not to allow him to waffle as he will easily divert onto a different subject and avoid the question.

As few notes on the linked interview, he talks about the barriers UK service providers face (about 35 seconds in) if they want to provide services to the US. Does he not realize that there are barriers in place for US citizens to offer these services across state lines, nevermind trying to get UK service providers cleared to for this. Also, when did Johnson deal with US negotiators?

Then around 3m30s he waffles on about the divorce bill and avoids answering the question on whether he told Merkel and Macron that he will withhold the divorce bill. From his answer it is clear he did not speak to them about it.

Then again at 5m in he talks about food shortages, again he doesn't answer the question posed to him. He does acknowledge there will be bumps in the road but avoids answering if there will be food shortages.

At 7m20 he tries to put the blame squarely on the EU but is challenged on it. His answer is more red lines which will not solve the problem. So while he tries to put the blame on the EU, he just showcases why the backstop cannot be ditched and speeding us to no-deal.

As I said earlier, it is hard to interview Johnson because he has the ability to speak a lot of rubbish and in that avoid answering the question posed to him.

He was supposed to be interviewed by Channel 4 news, but he backed out of that.

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1165632864853069824?s=20

The reason cited was the criticism from the Head of News and Current Affairs that No.10 was limiting exposure of the PM, much like Putin. The response? To limit the time media has with the PM. I don't know whether they realize what they are doing?

McGiver

Forty Seven wrote: »

No political party represents me, I feel marginalised as a white male due to nonsense identity politics taking over the political party I would be traditionally supporting (Labour) and I feel disenfranchised in my own country by just about everything and everyone around me. I'm a racist to the left because of my view on immigration, I'm a traitor to the right because I'm a remainer. I am resigned to this state. I'm fatigued and will be glad when it is all over. I hope this clears things up.

I'm afraid it won't be over. Leaving the EU is only beginning of a very likely long and painful process. If you think that Brexit clears anything up then you're badly mistaken. Brexit will only deepen the existing UK's political and social fractures.

rogue-entity

reslfj wrote: »

Standards and regulations is not prevented by a CU, but by being in the SM - like EEA/Switzerland.

CU membership will prevent independent trade deals, but such trade deals are very much Unicorns in a UK context.

Lars

Ah! thanks for the clarification and correction, it's appreciated. I'm sure I've gotten those two distinctions mixed up before too!

Infini

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

FT and Times both reporting tomorrow that Johnson was told it is "squarely and firmly" up to Britain to present it's alternative to the backstop. It also quotes EU sources as saying Johnson will now take the blame for no deal, not the EU.

The officials are quoted as saying what we already know - "The brutal fact is there is nothing in terms of a workable solution".

Simple truth is those that pushed for this, lied and cheated and abandoned reason and responsibility for petty vainglory and idiocy need to be hung by their bollocks for the whole debacle and made to answer and take responsibility for their mistakes. If theres a hard brexit it really is the fault of Boris and the conservatives as they pushed for this and they'll pay a very heavy prices for causing so much damage needlessly just because they cant get their own way. The EU will have every right to lay the blame on them because the EU were reasonable it was the UK side that wasnt.

Christy42 wrote: »

Bertie had brains. Didn't always use them for the benefit of others but he had them. When it suited his career he did well in various positions and did well with the EU presidency.

Unfortunately didn't look out for the country and cared about his own pockets too much. However he was not the firebrand nationalist type like Boris.

Bertie was the cute hoor in a sense he was clever enough to play coy and all but he knew when it was time to cash out, I always found it ironic how he left due to his dodgy finances only a few months before the crash.

Boris is not he's a waffler but he's backed the wrong horse and not only that but has backed himself into a corner. His support for Brexit is also partially why the referendum got carried so it will be total ironic that the man who helped bring this stupid idea over the line is the one at the helm when the ship finally hits the rocks and everything goes down the shìtter.

McGiver wrote: »

I'm afraid it won't be over. Leaving the EU is only beginning of a very likely long and painful process. If you think that Brexit clears anything up then you're badly mistaken. Brexit will only deepen the existing UK's political and social fractures.

Brexit is nearly sure to break up the UK within a decade with NI returning to the EU as part of the republic and Scotland going independent with it rejoining the EU some time afterwards. Its possble Wales too could go that just leaves England on its own. Would be ironic if the EU border they try forcing back on this island ultimately ends up on theirs instead.

fash

Enzokk wrote: »

As few notes on the linked interview, he talks about the barriers UK service providers face (about 35 seconds in) if they want to provide services to the US. Does he not realize that there are barriers in place for US citizens to offer these services across state lines, nevermind trying to get UK service providers cleared to for this. Also, when did Johnson deal with US negotiators?

Yes this is the thing: surely if it were easy to tear down the cross state borders to trade services, the local (e.g. new York architect, engineer, insurance, lawyer etc.) institutions would already have done so. Why will the states (not the federal government as it is a devolved issue) do something for an external actor that it won't do for its neighbour?!

KildareP

fash wrote: »

Yes this is the thing: surely if it were easy to tear down the cross state borders to trade services, the local (e.g. new York architect, engineer, insurance, lawyer etc.) institutions would already have done so. Why will the states (not the federal government as it is a devolved issue) do something for an external actor that it won't do for its neighbour?!

Waiting to see how long until UK starts complaining it is not getting a fair deal from the US. They appear to be heading into US trade deals with the exact same attitude as they did the EU, so are bound to make the same tactical errors and end in the same impasse where they're looking for impossible compromises from the US side whilst being wholly unwilling or unable to offer anything from their own.

fash

KildareP wrote: »

Waiting to see how long until UK starts complaining it is not getting a fair deal from the US. They appear to be heading into US trade deals with the exact same attitude as they did the EU, so are bound to make the same tactical errors and end in the same impasse where they're looking for impossible compromises from the US side whilst being wholly unwilling or unable to offer anything from their own.

They'll do it in secret and accept whatever they get - otherwise they'd have to admit they screwed up- and that can't be admitted until 10 years after they've left ( see Iraq war, Brexit referendum etc.)

Peregrinus

It will be very difficult to do it it in secret. Industry bodies and other stakeholders who will be significantly affected and may have much to gain or lose will expect to be consulted and have input (as they do at present in relation to the negotiation of EU trade deals). Even if HMG decides it's going to freeze them out, which would be a controversial decisions, the US government is certainly not going to make the same decision with respect to its stakeholders. On the assumption that industry figures on opposite sides of the Atlantic know one another and network together and talk to one another, stakeholders in the UK can't be kept entirely in the dark about the positions the UK adopts in negotiating a UK/US trade deal.

Leroy42

HMG has got a series of gagging orders across a range of industry bodies during Brexit, so the template is set.

And Trump and transparency aren't natural bed fellows. Trump will do a deal almost on his own to show how great he is.

As stated by an earlier post, it seems the UK are entering any US/UK trade talks in the same way they did with the EU. Everything will be easy, sure we are all friends, they need us and even more so now it all seems to hinge entirely on Johnson and Trump relationship.

VinLieger

So the only way a trade deal is getting through, in the case of no deal and the GFA being torn up, is if the Dems lose the house next year so maybe Boris is ignorantly hoping for that as it simply is not gonna happen unless there is widespread interference.

Leroy42

VinLieger wrote: »

So the only way a trade deal is getting through, in the case of no deal and the GFA being torn up, is if the Dems lose the house next year so maybe Boris is ignorantly hoping for that as it simply is not gonna happen unless there is widespread interference.

If we have learned anything about the UK political scene during Brexit is that the actual outcomes don't matter, only the headlines.

So Johnson and Trump will have the photo op of signing a trade deal and then the line that only for the DNC trying to punish the UK for daring to vote to leave the UK will start to be trotted out (or something along those lines).

Johnson will be seen as the man that delivered the deal, without having actually done anything.

Beechwoodspark

I thought the body language between trump and Johnson looked very off when they descended the stairs yest morn for the photo call

Boris as usual looked subservient and Trump looked p1ssed off with him.

Turns out the night before trump seriously pushed for Putin to be re admitted to the G7 but was firmly told no by Merkel Macron and his new best buddy Boris J. I doubt trump was very happy with Boris over that. Crack 1 in their relationship.

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

If we have learned anything about the UK political scene during Brexit is that the actual outcomes don't matter, only the headlines.

This has been true up of Brexit to now, but only because nothing has actually happened yet. So far, there have been no outcomes, only headlines.

But eventually (perhaps at Halloween) something is going to happen, and the outcome is going to matter a lot: right now I think No Deal is likely this year, and the end of the UK within 5 years.

Franz Von Peppercorn II

Ireland still bullying UK says Eoghan Harris

https://m.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/eoghan-harris/eoghan-harris-time-to-let-go-backstop-tiger-before-it-eats-irish-economy-38434068.html

Also forcing the EU into this.

CelticRambler

Infini wrote: »

Its possble Wales too could go that just leaves England on its own. Would be ironic if the EU border they try forcing back on this island ultimately ends up on theirs instead.

Wales decoupling from the Kingdom is a bit too much of a stretch for my imagination, but yes - it would be deliciously ironic if England had two EU borders on its own island!

Enzokk

Leroy42 wrote: »

HMG has got a series of gagging orders across a range of industry bodies during Brexit, so the template is set.

And Trump and transparency aren't natural bed fellows. Trump will do a deal almost on his own to show how great he is.

As stated by an earlier post, it seems the UK are entering any US/UK trade talks in the same way they did with the EU. Everything will be easy, sure we are all friends, they need us and even more so now it all seems to hinge entirely on Johnson and Trump relationship.

Seems like those NDA's has now been dropped to better prepare for no-deal. Makes sense, how could you properly prepare for no-deal if you cannot talk about no-deal to your members (of an association that had to sign one).

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1165696650926592007?s=20

Leroy42

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

This has been true up of Brexit to now, but only because nothing has actually happened yet. So far, there have been no outcomes, only headlines.

But eventually (perhaps at Halloween) something is going to happen, and the outcome is going to matter a lot: right now I think No Deal is likely this year, and the end of the UK within 5 years.

Only if the media actually report what is happening rather than simply the spin.

Based on the reporting of his visits to Germany and France last week, where apparently Johnson played a blinder and the WA is reopened, I wouldn't be holding out too much hope that it will.

So, we will be treated to the report on Johnson signing the trade deal with Trump, with a little closing line perhaps that Congress needs to ratify it.

Then we will be treated to the opposite position of now, that two governments head (EU and UK) both signed a deal but that a obstinate congress is holding it up against the will of the people.

Sam Russell

CelticRambler wrote: »

Wales decoupling from the Kingdom is a bit too much of a stretch for my imagination, but yes - it would be deliciously ironic if England had two EU borders on its own island!

England/Scotland would not be too hard to do - didn't Hadrian do a bit of a job on it a while back?

Wales/England might be a bit trickier.

Alun

Sam Russell wrote: »

England/Scotland would not be too hard to do - didn't Hadrian do a bit of a job on it a while back?

Wales/England might be a bit trickier.

King Offa did something similar between Wales and England too. Google Offa's Dyke.

54and56

Bit cynical wrote: »

In fairness, we in Ireland elected Bertie Ahern on several occasions. Boris is a bit like Bertie in some respects but with brains and education.

I've never voted FF and I never will but I think you are completely wrong in your assertion here. Bertie was an old fashioned politician who knew how to play the game. He was charming when he needed to be and hard as nails when he needed to be but he was always on top of the detail. His anorak wearing persona was carefully cultivated and kept people off guard. I hated the whole FF tents at the Galway Races culture and how in the end that whole generation of FF leaders were basically intoxicated by a property bubble and took their eye off the banking regulation ball so I'll never forgive them for the damage they did to my life and the country as a whole and never ever vote for anyone who is a member of that party.

Boris is indeed well educated and has brains but his dishevelled persona whilst mostly an act in terms of his ill fitting clothes and messy hair etc is in fact who he is. His Eton debating society skills serve him well in the soundbyte media world we live in and at the dispatch box in the HoC but in terms of policy and political principles he is an empty vessel who isn't on top of the detail and is being used as a useful idiot puppet by the ERG/Aaron Banks et al to drive home their no deal Brexit agenda. Cummings is the real PM when it comes to policy and political strategy whilst Gove is the PM when it comes to implementation and execution and Boris is a willing participant as it facilitates his lifelong ambition to be PM regardless of how long he will hold that office for or what damage is done during his tenure.

Right now the UK is in a phase of Brexit which I'd correlate with the eerie calm when the tide goes out unusually far before a tsunami hits.

McGiver

For anyone interested in selfharm to the their head, brave enough to listen to the latest Chopper's Brexit Podcast, where David Davis describes the latest developments.

https://castbox.fm/episode/David-Davis%2C-an-Irish-dispatch-and-Jacob-Rees-Mogg-channels-his-inner-poet-laureate-id1336779-id179208035?utm_source=website&utm_medium=dlink&utm_campaign=web_share&utm_content=David%20Davis%2C%20an%20Irish%20dispatch%20and%20Jacob%20Rees-Mogg%20channels%20his%20inner%20poet%20laureate-CastBox_FM

I've had a listen just to see what the other side is talking about.

The level of delussion, denial and waffle Davis presented is beyond belief, and all that with his typical causual confident manner. Aall that as if he wasn't at the negotiating table for 2
years.

The highlight quote:
"Remember at the beginning of this process in 2016, I said it won't be the first three years that matter, it would be the last three weeks, three days, three minutes, three seconds."

I mean...what can you say really. He thinks that such a complex issue can be force-negotiated in three minutes by pointing a gun at their own head.