Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Bit cynical · 23-08-2019 05:45PM

funkey_monkey wrote: »

My understanding is (and correct me if wrong) is that the backstop is only to be activated in the even of there not being a deal. UK <-> EU is too big a market for there not to be a deal so a trade deal will be made and the backstop will be irrelevant.

If they crash out now then it is a problem, but if they sign up and move onto the trade phase then any deal reached should consign the backstop to history.

[...]

Am I wrong on this?

If they crash out now, the backstop doesn't apply because the backstop is part of the overall withdrawal agreement which was rejected by the UK parliament.

Enzokk · 23-08-2019 05:48PM

BluePlanet wrote: »

I would add that this is all made possible by Merkel's gaffe, and Macron's attempts to paper over them.
Honestly it was amateur hour all round.

Seeing that the answer to what Merkel said seems to be a report that was released in July, what she said is true, right? If there is a solution out there, whether it takes 2 years or 30 days, the EU will listen. The AAC report has been dismissed already so more searching to go.

Bit cynical · 23-08-2019 05:52PM

Tell me how wrote: »

Merkel didn't gaffe.
She said hypothetically if it could be done, it could be done.

Brexiteers are clutching at straws putting anything on Merkel.
What do they expect her to do within the next 30 days? Ball is still in UK hands with the onus on them to forward viable alternatives.

I think Merkel was quite clever in her statement but probably she should have coordinated with Macron.

Laois_Man · 23-08-2019 05:55PM

Enzokk wrote: »

Seeing that the answer to what Merkel said seems to be a report that was released in July, what she said is true, right? If there is a solution out there, whether it takes 2 years or 30 days, the EU will listen. The AAC report has been dismissed already so more searching to go.

They'll change the structure of the document (without changing the actual content) - put a lovely new cover on it with a clever new name - and re-present it!

Strazdas · 23-08-2019 06:05PM

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think Merkel was quite clever in her statement but probably she should have coordinated with Macron.

I think she just threw that out in a question and answer session during the press conference. It was Johnson who seized on the 30 day thing.

fash · 23-08-2019 06:07PM

Bit cynical wrote: »

If they crash out now, the backstop doesn't apply because the backstop is part of the overall withdrawal agreement which was rejected by the UK parliament.

It depends on what you mean by "backstop". The principle will remain whether they take the current WA - or wait, suffer No Deal and then come back. It is technically true that if they leave there is a good chance that they lose NI (& Scotland) - in which case no backstop would be required, however that aside the " backstop" principle will still remain.

fash · 23-08-2019 06:11PM

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think Merkel was quite clever in her statement but probably she should have coordinated with Macron.

Thinking about this, if Boris gets to late October 2019, the best EU response would be to say "your ideas are intriguing and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter/hear more - but we just don't quite have time by 31 October".
Just to make Boris's do or die no deal on 31 October more difficult/Boris's own fault.

fash · 23-08-2019 06:16PM

Can someone explain the " no deal then election" hypothesis to (thick) me? If there is a no deal, why would the Labour party agree to an election immediately instead of waiting for the no deal horror to crush the Tory party? I.e. Wait a year - or even until the current 5 years are up?

Strazdas · 23-08-2019 06:22PM

fash wrote: »

Can someone explain the " no deal then election" hypothesis to (thick) me? If there is a no deal, why would the Labour party agree to an election immediately instead of waiting for the no deal horror to crush the Tory party? I.e. Wait a year - or even until the current 5 years are up?

The idea that Johnson would call the election first, leaves the EU and then the election is held (there's a six week gap between calling the election and it being held).

Bit cynical · 23-08-2019 06:25PM

fash wrote: »

It depends on what you mean by "backstop". The principle will remain whether they take the current WA - or wait, suffer No Deal and then come back. It is technically true that if they leave there is a good chance that they lose NI (& Scotland) - in which case no backstop would be required, however that aside the " backstop" principle will still remain.

I mean the backstop provision which exists as text in the WA. Technically that only applies if the WA is in force at the time the UK leave which I think was the issue for the poster who asked the question.

Yes it will still exist as an idea after that.

prawnsambo · 23-08-2019 06:30PM

This is what passes for journalistic commentary apparently. Bizarre stuff.

Bit cynical · 23-08-2019 06:36PM

Strazdas wrote: »

I think she just threw that out in a question and answer session during the press conference. It was Johnson who seized on the 30 day thing.

I think it was a little more planned than that but regardless the effect of it was to put Johnson on the spot. Both of them knew that the official line of the EU was that the backstop as specified in the WA text would remain no matter what, but if Johnson pointed this out, he would have been seen as the inflexible one by the press. So Johnson is now forced to produce this report which he knows regardless of the content will be rejected by the EU.

Akrasia · 23-08-2019 06:52PM

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think it was a little more planned than that but regardless the effect of it was to put Johnson on the spot. Both of them knew that the official line of the EU was that the backstop as specified in the WA text would remain no matter what, but if Johnson pointed this out, he would have been seen as the inflexible one by the press. So Johnson is now forced to produce this report which he knows regardless of the content will be rejected by the EU.

Johnson will just propose a fanciful technological solution again and then blame the EU for not being willing to give his non proposal a try

BluePlanet · 23-08-2019 06:55PM

Akrasia wrote: »

Johnson will just propose a fanciful technological solution again and then blame the EU for not being willing to give his non proposal a try

Exactly.
Additionally they (Merkel and Macron) didn't exactly close the door tight enough on Re-negotiation and ditching the BackStop.

I say that because BoJo and the Tories believe that is the game they are playing right now.

Its great the Brits are looking at Alternative Arrangements, but that is all part of the WA already. Yet they don't appear to understand that.

FrancieBrady · 23-08-2019 06:59PM

Akrasia wrote: »

Johnson will just propose a fanciful technological solution again and then blame the EU for not being willing to give his non proposal a try

Who cares, only the easily deluded.

I genuinely believe Johnson made a hames of his Berlin/Paris trip. The onus is now firmly on him.

He has navigated from 'not negotiating until the backstop is dropped' to having to go (technically begging) to Europe and coming home with 30 days to come up with credible alternatives.

Lackadaisical · 23-08-2019 07:32PM

It seems the level of debate is debased to the level of the school bully. What’s more worrying is they clearly have an audience for this kind of thing!

An Claidheamh · 23-08-2019 07:52PM

Once again, this stupid Brexiter's nonsense is not challenged by the BBC.

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.indy100.com/article/suella-braverman-irish-border-brexit-radio-4-australia-9075961%3famp

Wondered it be great if there was no border in Ireland, like Australia.

J Mysterio · 23-08-2019 07:59PM

I simply cant wait untill this little weasel is done. He is gloating, thinks he is untouchable.

https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/1164760773375090690

Once Brexit is over and people realise what they have done, the recriminations - the inquisition - begins. Justice has been deferred in this crisis and it will come.

PopePalpatine · 23-08-2019 08:03PM

I wish I had your optimism, I'm sure there's tax havens out there without an extradition agreement with the UK.

Strazdas · 23-08-2019 08:13PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

I simply cant wait untill this little weasel is done. He is gloating, thinks he is untouchable.

https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/1164760773375090690

Once Brexit is over and people realise what they have done, the recriminations - the inquisition - begins. Justice has been deferred in this crisis and it will come.

David McWilliams in the FT rubbished the idea that Ireland would be decimated by No Deal. It's just Brexiteer propaganda (which they actually seem to believe themselves).

fash · 23-08-2019 08:21PM

Strazdas wrote: »

The idea that Johnson would call the election first, leaves the EU and then the election is held (there's a six week gap between calling the election and it being held).

But to call an election does he but need to (call and) lose a vote of no confidence in himself/ have a 2/3rds vote for an early election?
Would it not be in the interests of Labour to say " let's wait a few weeks for the good of the country"?

Spanish Eyes · 23-08-2019 08:24PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

I simply cant wait untill this little weasel is done. He is gloating, thinks he is untouchable.

https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/1164760773375090690

Once Brexit is over and people realise what they have done, the recriminations - the inquisition - begins. Justice has been deferred in this crisis and it will come.

You may be correct for the future fallout, but for now, the sunny upland unicorn utopia beckons for those who think Arlene and the ERG are great and support them without question.

I am in awe of a country that has handed over jurisdiction of the UK to ten DUP and how ever many of the ERG.

That is where they are at really. I think. Oh and the survival of the Tories to the detriment of the Brexit Party.

Party before country again, as always. Sad times.

Headshot · 23-08-2019 08:28PM

Strazdas wrote: »

David McWilliams in the FT rubbished the idea that Ireland would be decimated by No Deal. It's just Brexiteer propaganda (which they actually seem to believe themselves).

Just reading it now.

Fascinating read. I never knew that little old Ireland remains the UK’s fifth largest export market and UK exports more to Ireland than it does to China

10000maniacs · 23-08-2019 08:41PM

An Claidheamh wrote: »

Once again, this stupid Brexiter's nonsense is not challenged by the BBC.

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.indy100.com/article/suella-braverman-irish-border-brexit-radio-4-australia-9075961%3famp

Wondered it be great if there was no border in Ireland, like Australia.

You have to realise that the Radio 4 morning slot guys are all brexiters. Remember John Humphies trying to blindside Helen McEntee with lies about Irish exports to the Uk and Helen sucker punching him expertly.

Kermit.de.frog · 23-08-2019 08:53PM

https://twitter.com/MichelBarnier/status/1164940221928083457

Realistic, operational and compatible...

I think prepare for no deal.

First Up · 23-08-2019 08:53PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Who cares, only the easily deluded.

I genuinely believe Johnson made a hames of his Berlin/Paris trip. The onus is now firmly on him.

He has navigated from 'not negotiating until the backstop is dropped' to having to go (technically begging) to Europe and coming home with 30 days to come up with credible alternatives.

I wouldn't confuse what is said during press conferences with the real discussions. Bojo was left in no doubt that the EU is not the least interested in changing the WA. He can say what he likes for his domestic audience.

FrancieBrady · 23-08-2019 09:02PM

First Up wrote: »

I wouldn't confuse what is said during press conferences with the real discussions. Bojo was left in no doubt that the EU is not the least interested in changing the WA. He can say what he likes for his domestic audience.

I know. That is why he made a total hames of it.

Jizique · 23-08-2019 09:08PM

Strazdas wrote: »

David McWilliams in the FT rubbished the idea that Ireland would be decimated by No Deal. It's just Brexiteer propaganda (which they actually seem to believe themselves).

The thought of damage to Ireland is almost the only thing that keeps them going at this stage

Professor Moriarty · 23-08-2019 09:14PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/MichelBarnier/status/1164940221928083457

Realistic, operational and compatible...

I think prepare for no deal.

Barnier is the EU's lightning rod for Brexiteers' piss and wind sound and fury.

Enzokk · 23-08-2019 09:36PM

fash wrote: »

Can someone explain the " no deal then election" hypothesis to (thick) me? If there is a no deal, why would the Labour party agree to an election immediately instead of waiting for the no deal horror to crush the Tory party? I.e. Wait a year - or even until the current 5 years are up?

Well Labour wants an election as soon as possible. It would also be a little hypocritical for them to say that they are in a position to reverse the damage the Tories have created, and when presented with an opportunity they shy away from the challenge. If they assert the Tories and their policies are making things worse, what would it say if they delayed replacing them to cause more damage?

Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

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