Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

ltd440

fash wrote: »

Can someone explain the " no deal then election" hypothesis to (thick) me? If there is a no deal, why would the Labour party agree to an election immediately instead of waiting for the no deal horror to crush the Tory party? I.e. Wait a year - or even until the current 5 years are up?

Also because if no deal and crash out and before the economy maybe goes down the toilet, Boris can be the man who said f#ck EU and tells the voters I gave Johnny foreigner a bloody nose and maybe fools enough of the people enough of the time to get voted back in with a majority for a full term

fash

Enzokk wrote: »

Well Labour wants an election as soon as possible. It would also be a little hypocritical for them to say that they are in a position to reverse the damage the Tories have created, and when presented with an opportunity they shy away from the challenge. If they assert the Tories and their policies are making things worse, what would it say if they delayed replacing them to cause more damage?

Personally if I were the Labour party I would certainly not accept an election planned to arrive 1 week or less after B-day : best case, you get landed with clean up, plus the other side get all of the benefits but none of the costs of brexit.
Plus it is easy to say in the few days before brexit "good of the country last days before Brexit, someone must think of the children - so we will agree to election B-day + 6 months after.

fash

ltd440 wrote: »

Also because if no deal and crash out and before the economy maybe goes down the toilet, Boris can be the man who said f#ck EU and tells the voters I gave Johnny foreigner a bloody nose and maybe fools enough of the people enough of the time to get voted back in with a majority for a full term

Yes that's exactly the point- why should the Labour party be so stupid as to literally have Boris 5 years when instead it can watch him drown and fully destroy the Tory party forever.

An Claidheamh

I know the moderator isn't fan of links, but this Americans journalist seems to have the number on Johnson and Co

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/the-double-dishonesty-of-boris-johnsons-brexit-proposals/amp

Akrasia

Headshot wrote: »

Just reading it now.

Fascinating read. I never knew that little old Ireland remains the UK’s fifth largest export market and UK exports more to Ireland than it does to China

Brexiteers say the UK is the 5th largest economy in the world. Not anymore. Since the brexit referendum it has slipped to the 7th largest, just ahead of notorious basketcase Italy

For reference, Ireland is ranked at 32nd largest economy in the world.

eire4

Akrasia wrote: »

Brexiteers say the UK is the 5th largest economy in the world. Not anymore. Since the brexit referendum it has slipped to the 7th largest, just ahead of notorious basketcase Italy

For reference, Ireland is ranked at 32nd largest economy in the world.

Interesting that Ireland is that high considering how small we are population wise.

Don't know if it's been posted but this is a fascinating insight to the EU's side of things.
BBC Storyville 2019 | Brexit Behind Closed Doors.

I'm only 40 mins in out of the two hours. Will watch more of it later.

54and56

Akrasia wrote: »

Brexiteers say the UK is the 5th largest economy in the world. Not anymore. Since the brexit referendum it has slipped to the 7th largest, just ahead of notorious basketcase Italy

Would you mind linking to your source for ranking economies? I'd like to see what basis is used, I assume GDP expressed in US$?

Nody

eire4 wrote: »

Interesting that Ireland is that high considering how small we are population wise.

Not really; there are 39 developed economies in the world (think EU, US, Canada, Japan, Australia & NZ); France alone has a higher GDP than all of Africa for example.

Tell me how

What's interesting about this tweet?

https://twitter.com/ChefConsultant/status/1164812223614558208?s=19

Apparently this guy didn't actually vote (polish passport holder) but did back Brexit on BBC tv and previously met Thereasa May to be reassured that him and people like him would be granted permanent settled status.

His tune has changed now obviously.

(Edited to take out reference to him voting to leave)

volchitsa

Tell me how wrote: »

What's interesting about this tweet?

https://twitter.com/ChefConsultant/status/1164812223614558208?s=19

This guy voted Leave and previously met Thereasa May to be reassured that him and people like him would be granted permanent settled status.

Pretty sure he'd flip his vote now.

You know what? I have zero sympathy for him. What did he think was going to happen? He knew well it was about immigrants and racism - but in his mind he was an "important" foreigner - and stuff all the rest of them, cleaners and waiters and fruit pickers and the rest.

Seth Brundle

Tell me how wrote: »

What's interesting about this tweet?

https://twitter.com/ChefConsultant/status/1164812223614558208?s=19

This guy voted Leave and previously met Thereasa May to be reassured that him and people like him would be granted permanent settled status.

Pretty sure he'd flip his vote now.

Are you sure?

https://twitter.com/ChefConsultant/status/1165035413343481856?s=19

Akrasia

54&56 wrote: »

Would you mind linking to your source for ranking economies? I'd like to see what basis is used, I assume GDP expressed in US$?

I got it from here www.worldpopulationreview.com/countries/countries-by-gdp/

Which takes its data from the UN and the IMF

CelticRambler

Tell me how wrote: »

What's interesting about this tweet?

https://twitter.com/ChefConsultant/status/1164812223614558208?s=19

Apparently this guy didn't actually vote (polish passport holder) but did back Brexit

What's most interesting for me is this justification for supporting Brexit "as lots of people from the industry know.. ...hospitality industry is flooded with cheaper meat, veg from EU"

You think the EU's meat and veg is cheap, mate? Wait till you see what floods in post Brexit!

But to be fair to the man: he's one of the few Brexit supporters with the courage to admit that he made a mistake.

Enzokk

Deleted User wrote: »

Don't know if it's been posted but this is a fascinating insight to the EU's side of things.
BBC Storyville 2019 | Brexit Behind Closed Doors.


I'm only 40 mins in out of the two hours. Will watch more of it later.

Re-watching some of the scenes and it is all there, if the British leaders wanted to learn. The EU knew that they would try to use Ireland and the backstop as a pressure point on the EU. This was in October 2018 when May backed away from her support of the backstop. This is 1h35m20 into the video or so. Barnier states the plan and also that the UK would bypass him and go to the heads of state, and phone them, to get it changed. What did Johnson do? Demand the dropping of the backstop and go to the leaders of Germany and France to try and get it done.

As for the plan of waiting for the EU to budge at the last minute, well the problem is the UK is like a Bond villain telling you their plan beforehand. See 1h45m in to see how Barnier recalls David Davis telling him this.

Then immediately afterwards you have Philippe Lamberts from the Green Party in Belgium spelling out exactly the choice for the EU. If it comes down to no-deal or the protection of the EU single market, they will take no-deal because while it would hurt the loss of the single market would hurt so much more. They would choose the lesser of two evils.

DOCARCH

volchitsa wrote: »

You know what? I have zero sympathy for him. What did he think was going to happen? He knew well it was about immigrants and racism - but in his mind he was an "important" foreigner - and stuff all the rest of them, cleaners and waiters and fruit pickers and the rest.

A bit like Mexican immigrants in US voting for Trump wanting to limit immigration from Mexico! We've had our cake....

Enzokk

CelticRambler wrote: »

What's most interesting for me this justification for supporting Brexit "as lots of people from the industry know.. ...hospitality industry is flooded with cheaper meat, veg from EU"

You think the EU's meat and veg is cheap, mate? Wait till you see what floods in post Brexit!

But to be fair to the man: he's one of the few Brexit supporters with the courage to admit that he made a mistake.

This is another example of someone in the food industry falling for the rhetoric on Brexit. You had the South Asian chefs believing that they would get more visas for chefs from their regions post-Brexit which would help their industry.

I swallowed the Brexit lies. Now I regret telling curry house workers to vote leave

This story has been linked before, but the players in it caught my eye this time.

At the time, the Bangladesh Caterers Association was worried about an average of four restaurants closing a week, rising rents and soaring business rates. Both Priti Patel and Boris Johnson approached us to collaborate with and support the Save Our Curry Houses campaign set up by Vote Leave. They said if we were to support the leave campaign, they would ensure we were able to get more chefs from south Asia by relaxing immigration rules with lower salary thresholds to hire staff from outside the EU.

That is only the current Home Secretary making a promise she didn't intend to keep and is in fact doubling down on it seems. If a famous chef that has cooked for the royal family cannot get permanent settled status from the Home Office, what chance does your chef of Asian origin who speaks little english and will make a whole lot less have?

It is easy to laugh at those caught out by the lies, I will try to take the James O'Brien method of reserving my anger for Patel and Johnson.

Akrasia

Tell me how wrote: »

What's interesting about this tweet?

https://twitter.com/ChefConsultant/status/1164812223614558208?s=19

Apparently this guy didn't actually vote (polish passport holder) but did back Brexit on BBC tv and previously met Thereasa May to be reassured that him and people like him would be granted permanent settled status.

His tune has changed now obviously.

(Edited to take out reference to him voting to leave)

Is this a sick joke though? They’re rejecting people for settled status while telling them their application has been successful and they’re only giving them a up to 5 years pre-settled status

Is this so they can lie in their published statistics saying x number of applications have been successful? Or to deny them a route to appeal/make it harder to appeal because they weren’t actually denied?

5 years ‘limited’ residency that comes with all kinds of conditions that could have them deported for minor transgressions... it’s a slap in the face to the idea that they are allowing current EU citizens to stay and a complete vindication to all the EU citizens who have been leaving the UK out of fear of a new Hostile environment for EU citizens.

Shelga

How would a free trade agreement with the UK sort out the border issue, as long as they want to be outside the single market and customs union?

I keep hearing this- “if only we could skip the withdrawal agreement and go straight to a free trade agreement, everything would be fine” line, and- how would it??

If you’re in a different customs arrangement, you’re always going to have to check what’s coming in, no?

Call me Al

CelticRambler wrote: »

What's most interesting for me is this justification for supporting Brexit "as lots of people from the industry know.. ...hospitality industry is flooded with cheaper meat, veg from EU"

You think the EU's meat and veg is cheap, mate? Wait till you see what floods in post Brexit!

But to be fair to the man: he's one of the few Brexit supporters with the courage to admit that he made a mistake.

Unfortunarely he's only admitting since its impacted on him personally. If this never happened he'd still be ok with Brexit.
I think we can all expect to see a lot of that selfish behaviour over the next 6 months.

CelticRambler

Enzokk wrote: »

This is another example of someone in the food industry falling for the rhetoric on Brexit ...

It is, but it's also a commentary on how easy it was for the Leave campaign to spread lies and disinformation before the vote. Take any pro-Brexit argument and you'll find plenty of people who did not apply any measure of critical thinking to the point being made. Of course by "people" I mean members of the UK electorate - every potential problem and irreconciable difference was foreseen by the contributors to this forum!

CelticRambler

Akrasia wrote: »

Is this a sick joke though? They’re rejecting people for settled status while telling them their application has been successful and they’re only giving them a up to 5 years pre-settled status

Is this so they can lie in their published statistics saying x number of applications have been successful? Or to deny them a route to appeal/make it harder to appeal because they weren’t actually denied?

The letter looks to me like a quick-fix to get rid of an overwhelming backlog without actually fixing anything - he's approved for "remain" status if he's already here, or "OK to enter" status if he isn't. Can kicked 5 years down the road.

Enzokk

CelticRambler wrote: »

It is, but it's also a commentary on how easy it was for the Leave campaign to spread lies and disinformation before the vote. Take any pro-Brexit argument and you'll find plenty of people who did not apply any measure of critical thinking to the point being made. Of course by "people" I mean members of the UK electorate - every potential problem and irreconciable difference was foreseen by the contributors to this forum!

I will say that the same spurious arguments that I heard from people in the UK that voted for Brexit, Polish just having babies and claiming benefits, I have heard in Ireland as well in a different form.

Borderhopper

Enzokk wrote: »

CelticRambler wrote: »

What's most interesting for me this justification for supporting Brexit "as lots of people from the industry know.. ...hospitality industry is flooded with cheaper meat, veg from EU"

You think the EU's meat and veg is cheap, mate? Wait till you see what floods in post Brexit!

But to be fair to the man: he's one of the few Brexit supporters with the courage to admit that he made a mistake.

This is another example of someone in the food industry falling for the rhetoric on Brexit. You had the South Asian chefs believing that they would get more visas for chefs from their regions post-Brexit which would help their industry.

I swallowed the Brexit lies. Now I regret telling curry house workers to vote leave

This story has been linked before, but the players in it caught my eye this time.

At the time, the Bangladesh Caterers Association was worried about an average of four restaurants closing a week, rising rents and soaring business rates. Both Priti Patel and Boris Johnson approached us to collaborate with and support the Save Our Curry Houses campaign set up by Vote Leave. They said if we were to support the leave campaign, they would ensure we were able to get more chefs from south Asia by relaxing immigration rules with lower salary thresholds to hire staff from outside the EU.

That is only the current Home Secretary making a promise she didn't intend to keep and is in fact doubling down on it seems. If a famous chef that has cooked for the royal family cannot get permanent settled status from the Home Office, what chance does your chef of Asian origin who speaks little english and will make a whole lot less have?

It is easy to laugh at those caught out by the lies, I will try to take the James O'Brien method of reserving my anger for Patel and Johnson.

I’m sorry, it’s not easy to laugh at people caught out by lies, it’s easy to be angry at them. Honestly, what did this industry representative think would happen? A campaign to leave based on unicorns for all and less foreigners about the place would also back more (low paid and less like the natives) foreigners coming in? I think his attitude in backing leave was partly racist to be fair-get rid of the poles etc who aren’t like us and there’ll be more room for your relatives. Seriously, it’s like he thought the EU controlled quotas for immigration or something.

My (Welsh) brother in law voted leave because “there are too many pakis in Britain”. Where do you go with that?

CelticRambler

Enzokk wrote: »

I will say that the same spurious arguments that I heard from people in the UK that voted for Brexit, Polish just having babies and claiming benefits, I have heard in Ireland as well in a different form.

Well, yeah! And I've been hearing all the same arguments from someone or other for the last twenty-five years in one country or another. It was quite amusing when I moved to France to listen to my rural neighbours moaning about the influx of Brits and Germans, buying up all the ruined farmhouses and "forcing the children off the land" - exactly the same nonsense spouted by my culchie relatives in Ireland in the 80s and 90s. My culchie cousins couldn't wait to get "off the land" to have a better quality of life in a city somewhere, and my children's French peers can't wait to get away from incestuous village life, and certainly don't want to live in some F-rated draughty farmhouse!

If this wariness of foreigners is so deeply ingrained in the human psyche, maybe the EU should have done (and should still do) more to explain why freedom of movement is a good thing for communities across the continent. At least Manfred Weber's free Interrail pass for 18-year-olds is a step in that direction.

Kermit.de.frog

Shelga wrote: »

How would a free trade agreement with the UK sort out the border issue, as long as they want to be outside the single market and customs union?

I keep hearing this- “if only we could skip the withdrawal agreement and go straight to a free trade agreement, everything would be fine” line, and- how would it??

If you’re in a different customs arrangement, you’re always going to have to check what’s coming in, no?

Yes.

For there to be no infrastructure on the island of Ireland the UK would need to be in the CU and SM.

That's why the backstop is essential.

Igotadose

Chatted with some Welsh folk at the pub last night in West Kerry. Regular visitors on holiday over the years, lovely folk, all saying that Brexit's a disaster for Wales (yes, they know Wales voted for it, blamed the retired little Englanders.) The crash in the pound is seriously impacting them, they've said, not traveling as much at all and not planning on it.

Nothing new here, obviously, though the impacts of the pound devaluation are hurting already at the 'ground level' isn't something you hear too much of. Seems like an obvious thing. And it'll only get worse.

Sam Russell

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Yes.

For there to be no infrastructure on the island of Ireland the UK would need to be in the CU and SM.

That's why the backstop is essential.

Well, yes.

But they only need to be the CU/SM in those aspects of the SM and the CU that affect the All Ireland economy and the GFA. For example, agriculture is a big issue, particularly animal husbandry, but the motor assembly business is not and grape growing and wine production not so much.

The obvious solution is a united Ireland, or failing that, a CU and SM border in the Irish Sea. There really is no other solution.

Now having said that:

1. Exports from NI to GB are of no interest to the EU so they can do as they like. [60% to 70% go through Dublin Port).

2. Imports from GB to NI is a different story. Currently, SPS matters are already dealt with by inspections at Larne (currently @ 10%) and that should continue, perhaps at 100%. That would allow the agriculture aspects of the SM/CU to not require border control, as long as the UK agrees NI stays compliant. (So no Chlorinated chicken or hormone beef). Milk, pigs and lambs can then cross the NI/Ireland border unhindered.

3. VAT is a major problem, as exports from the EU gain a VAT refund, and would cause a significant loss to the Irish Gov. The current all Ireland VAT scheme needs to be maintained to prevent the VAT carousel VAT fraud. This has not been discussed anywhere as far as I can see. Vat is much more significant than tariffs. (23% vs a few percent).

Could the UK Gov agree to some or all of these points?

Kermit.de.frog

Picking and choosing products to be unchecked is not a guarantee either.

For example it's rumoured Nissan are scoping out sites in Cork. That may be true or false.

But what if it's true and a factory opened? Suddenly you do need to be able to carry out additional checks.

My take on this is in order to have the cast iron certainty we need than NI to all intents and purposes needs to remain part of EU market with checks at the ports.

I don't see how there can be a guarantee without that.

J Mysterio

Tusk ahead of Bojo meeting in Biarritz

Speaking ahead of his meeting with Mr Johnson, Mr Tusk said: "He will be the third British Conservative prime minister with whom I will discuss Brexit.

"The EU was always open to co-operation when David Cameron wanted to avoid Brexit, when Theresa May wanted to avoid a no-deal Brexit and we will also be ready now to hold serious talks with Prime Minister Johnson.

"One thing I will not co-operate on is no deal. I still hope that Prime Minster Johnson will not like to go down in history as 'Mr No Deal'.

"We are willing to listen to ideas that are operational, realistic and acceptable to all member states including Ireland, if and when the UK government is ready to put them on the table."

UK Independent