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Buy now or wait a while longer

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  • 18-08-2019 12:15pm
    #1
    conbob
    Registered Users Posts: 175 ✭✭


    Hi all. I'm in a position to buy a property in Dublin, I have recently received mortgage approval. It's not a large amount but enough to buy an apartment or at a stretch perhaps a house as a single buyer. With talk of stabilising property prices and mentions of a global recession is now a good time to buy? It seems like we're at a peak with lending limits in place. Although there's still a lot of unmet demand and with current rents it seems like buying could be a good move. Thanks


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    #2
    airportgirl83
    Registered Users Posts: 149 ✭✭airportgirl83


    conbob wrote: »
    Hi all. I'm in a position to buy a property in Dublin, I have recently received mortgage approval. It's not a large amount but enough to buy an apartment or at a stretch perhaps a house as a single buyer. With talk of stabilising property prices and mentions of a global recession is now a good time to buy? It seems like we're at a peak with lending limits in place. Although there's still a lot of unmet demand and with current rents it seems like buying could be a good move. Thanks

    I'd wait and see how Brexit and other global tensions work out in the next few months and revisit Q1/Q2 next year.


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    #3
    The Nutty M
    Registered Users Posts: 904 ✭✭✭The Nutty M


    Wait another 2-3 years in or around. It'll be easy buy houses again.


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    #4
    o1s1n
    Registered Users Posts: 34,654 ✭✭✭✭o1s1n
    Master of the Universe


    I've a friend who has just paid the deposit on a two bed apartment in North Dublin which she made an insane offer of 300k on.

    She was sick of bidding and losing out every time so bid 20k over the current offer and went sale agreed.

    Crazy time to be buying IMO at the moment, people seem to be going a bit mad with their bidding and properties look to be over priced. Coupled with Brexit and I'd be holding off for a bit.


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    #5
    NearlyForty
    Registered Users Posts: 113 ✭✭NearlyForty


    Yeah we’re the same here.. We’re in a position to buy now but we’ve decided to hold tough until the new year, to see what happens. We don’t want to leave it go too long though as we’re fed up with renting and want to move to a different town but we’re willing wait 6 months anyway... Fingers crossed! I have noticed that house prices for what we are looking for, are dropping from the usual e225k down to e195k


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    #6
    Addle
    Registered Users Posts: 4,812 ✭✭✭Addle


    You’ll get a mortgage now.
    You may not in a couple of years.


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    #7
    Brego888
    Registered Users Posts: 1,319 ✭✭✭Brego888


    You only buy in the current climate if you want and find a potential home for life. Stepping stones, first rung on the ladder etc nonsense are a dangerous game.
    If you can comfortably afford the stress test of increased mortgage rates and would happily live there long term then negative equity worries are not as relevant.
    My advice would be to cautiously keep looking and don't rule out buying now.


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    #8
    Corruptedmorals
    Registered Users Posts: 4,194 ✭✭✭Corruptedmorals


    There's good value to be had in certain areas where there are lots of new houses being built....people are flocking to them before the help to buy ends (if it does end). The second hand market in these areas is shifting slower as a result and asking prices are dropping. This isn't across the board by any means but it's visible. We saw plenty of viewings with only a handful of people and others where the house was doing several rounds of viewings.


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    #9
    Browney7
    Registered Users Posts: 3,100 ✭✭✭Browney7


    What are your current living arrangements? Renting presumably? You should factor this into your sums.

    Prices are probably going to drop slightly or stay flat but government could announce some alternate buyer scheme in the morning to fuel further demand scuppering this consensus. Or the CBI could raise the income multiplier limits (I think this is quite unlikely in the current uncertain economic climate though).


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    #10
    Idbatterim
    Registered Users Posts: 17,849 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    Go for a house if at all possible !!! I’m personally sick of hearing about brexit and if it was a few years ago , when it was voted for. It wouldn’t have been a factor , but now , given it’s so close and **** could hit the fan , it might be worth waiting to see the outcome. Also people say “ wait two or three years “ yeah if you’re not being ripped off on rent now , fancy a gamble and have a recession proof job ( or a large amount of cash ) ...


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    #11
    Dolbhad
    Registered Users Posts: 782 ✭✭✭Dolbhad


    I am in the same boat. Starting looking last year and found prices were crazy and going well above asking quickly. This year prices are higher but the bidding ain’t as crazy and I have often been the only person at an open viewing. I also think some houses are over priced and not moving. Those that are in good condition and priced at a good starting point are going quickly and over asking.

    I am conscious of Brexit and I know a few auctioneers through work who have mentioned it’s been a quiet summer. Both for stock coming on the market and taking longer to go sale agreed. If I saw a house now that I liked long term and secured it, I’d go for it. I wouldn’t be waiting for Brexit. But I’m trying to save as much cash as possible so if Brexit does cause a dip (and banks get nervous) that I could still move on a property.

    I don’t think there will be a drop in Prices. But maybe some properties that need a lot of work can come down to a more reasonable price.

    However the government could do another scheme that messes with the market. I do believe the HTB inflated new build prices. I expect it to be extended in the budget but there seems to be talks of lowering the threshold for applying for it. But all it takes is the builders to slow the output of builds as they don’t like the prices their getting and prices go back up again.


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    #12
    Dolbhad
    Registered Users Posts: 782 ✭✭✭Dolbhad


    I am in the same boat. Starting looking last year and found prices were crazy and going well above asking quickly. This year prices are higher but the bidding ain’t as crazy and I have often been the only person at an open viewing. I also think some houses are over priced and not moving. Those that are in good condition and priced at a good starting point are going quickly and over asking.

    I am conscious of Brexit and I know a few auctioneers through work who have mentioned it’s been a quiet summer. Both for stock coming on the market and taking longer to go sale agreed. If I saw a house now that I liked long term and secured it, I’d go for it. I wouldn’t be waiting for Brexit. But I’m trying to save as much cash as possible so if Brexit does cause a dip (and banks get nervous) that I could still move on a property.

    I don’t think there will be a drop in Prices. But maybe some properties that need a lot of work can come down to a more reasonable price.

    However the government could do another scheme that messes with the market. I do believe the HTB inflated new build prices. I expect it to be extended in the budget but there seems to be talks of lowering the threshold for applying for it. But all it takes is the builders to slow the output of builds as they don’t like the prices their getting and prices go back up again.


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    #13
    zig
    Registered Users Posts: 1,206 ✭✭✭zig


    Im not an economist but I do wonder how much this really matters and what affect it has on your life unless we literally repeat the same thing as what happened in 2008. Given that we are clearly not in a crazy property bubble at the moment I dont see how something that extreme can repeat itself any time soon.

    Supposing you buy a house now that is lets say 20 grand over what it will cost in 3 years time, what happens then?

    1. You continue living there, so it has no effect other than a mild sucker punch that you are paying more back on your mortgage. Well keep in mind, you will also have 3 years paid off on this mortgage and also a load of hassle out of the way.

    2. You want to move, sell your house and prices have gone down, well in this case its likely the house you want to move to has gone down relatively also.

    3. You want to move, sell your house and prices have gone up. Well the same logic applies, your house is worth more but you will be paying more for the next house too.

    4. You want to buy a second house and keep your current one. In this case you will still be doing well to be buying a house in a slumped market.

    And to top all of this off, none of it is really relevant because it may not become an issue for at least 5 to 10 years, at that point the dynamics will have changed anyway, possibly population increase, possibly reassurance in house prices (if they have gone down).

    I dont think things are insane enough at the moment to believe they will change too drastically in the near future to have any great affect on your personal finances.

    As someone else pointed out, generally a slowdown in the economy also means a slow down in employment, earnings and therefore mortgages.


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    #14
    Bluefoam
    Registered Users Posts: 7,731 ✭✭✭Bluefoam


    I need a house to live in now... I have found one that suits me very well & I am buying it... I spent almost a year looking at crap houses going for silly money & now I am buying a good house for silly money. If I wait 6 months, I might get a cheaper house, but probably not one as good as I have found... So I'm going through with the purchase. I'm not concerned if the value drops in the next few years, because ultimately it'll rise again. Tle location is ideal for either renting a room or even the whole house if necessary... so I'm relatively well protected in case I lose my current income.

    So, what I'm saying is, buy if it suits you. Don't if it doesn't. In any case buy the house that is right for you.


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    #15
    Eric Cartman
    Registered Users Posts: 26,282 ✭✭✭✭Eric Cartman


    Bluefoam wrote: »
    I need a house to live in now... I have found one that suits me very well & I am buying it... I spent almost a year looking at crap houses going for silly money & now I am buying a good house for silly money. If I wait 6 months, I might get a cheaper house, but probably not one as good as I have found... So I'm going through with the purchase. I'm not concerned if the value drops in the next few years, because ultimately it'll rise again. Tle location is ideal for either renting a room or even the whole house if necessary... so I'm relatively well protected in case I lose my current income.

    So, what I'm saying is, buy if it suits you. Don't if it doesn't. In any case buy the house that is right for you.

    very true, but overall, if houses were all 10% cheaper, would there be less crap houses in your budget ?

    the stock of housing for sale is poor to say the least at present.


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    #16
    Bluefoam
    Registered Users Posts: 7,731 ✭✭✭Bluefoam


    Eric Cartman wrote: »
    very true, but overall, if houses were all 10% cheaper, would there be less crap houses in your budget ?

    the stock of housing for sale is poor to say the least at present.

    If I waited for a 10% drop:
    • I wouldn't get a mortgage for the current amount
    • I wouldn't find a house as suitable
    • My buying power would be reduced by the economic environment that allows house prices to fall by 10%

    As it stands, I can afford the house, it won't put a financial strain on me, I need somewhere to live now.

    Waiting is not a suitable option for me...


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    #17
    antiskeptic
    Registered Users Posts: 9,555 ✭✭✭antiskeptic


    conbob wrote: »
    Hi all. I'm in a position to buy a property in Dublin, I have recently received mortgage approval. It's not a large amount but enough to buy an apartment or at a stretch perhaps a house as a single buyer. With talk of stabilising property prices and mentions of a global recession is now a good time to buy? It seems like we're at a peak with lending limits in place. Although there's still a lot of unmet demand and with current rents it seems like buying could be a good move. Thanks

    If there is a recession/ hard brexit what do you suppose will happen house prices.

    If you expect they would go down then you would likely be right.

    What do you expect banks to do if property prices start falling, given how badly they were bitten last time round.

    If you expect they would pucker up on lending and demand greater deposits and offer lower ltvs you would likely be correct.

    That you have mortgage approval now doesn't guarantee you would maintain that approval should things go pear shaped.

    Many experienced the dilemma last time round. They didn't buy a house in the madness, saw prices tumble, couldn't get a mortgage and spent 10 years renting. At which point houses prices had gone back up.


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    #18
    Browney7
    Registered Users Posts: 3,100 ✭✭✭Browney7


    Bluefoam wrote: »
    If I waited for a 10% drop:
    • I wouldn't get a mortgage for the current amount
    • I wouldn't find a house as suitable
    • My buying power would be reduced by the economic environment that allows house prices to fall by 10%

    As it stands, I can afford the house, it won't put a financial strain on me, I need somewhere to live now.

    Waiting is not a suitable option for me...

    Don't follow this logic - is your salary directly linked to property prices or are you certain your salary would fall by the same amount in a stressed environment?


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    #19
    Bluefoam
    Registered Users Posts: 7,731 ✭✭✭Bluefoam


    Browney7 wrote: »
    Bluefoam wrote: »
    If I waited for a 10% drop:
    • I wouldn't get a mortgage for the current amount
    • I wouldn't find a house as suitable
    • My buying power would be reduced by the economic environment that allows house prices to fall by 10%

    As it stands, I can afford the house, it won't put a financial strain on me, I need somewhere to live now.

    Waiting is not a suitable option for me...

    Don't follow this logic - is your salary directly linked to property prices or are you certain your salary would fall by the same amount in a stressed environment?
    No, I have been offered an exemption based on having a reasonably large deposit, disposable income and decent salary. The offer I have is due to the fact that under the current circumstances I will have a decent amount of equity, but the loan amount is not the standard 3.5 X salary...

    The central bank see me as a good prospect. But in a downward market, they may not be as generous with their evaluations...


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    #20
    conbob
    Registered Users Posts: 175 ✭✭conbob


    Addle wrote: »
    You’ll get a mortgage now.
    You may not in a couple of years.
    zig wrote: »
    Im not an economist but I do wonder how much this really matters and what affect it has on your life unless we literally repeat the same thing as what happened in 2008. Given that we are clearly not in a crazy property bubble at the moment I dont see how something that extreme can repeat itself any time soon.

    Supposing you buy a house now that is lets say 20 grand over what it will cost in 3 years time, what happens then?

    1. You continue living there, so it has no effect other than a mild sucker punch that you are paying more back on your mortgage. Well keep in mind, you will also have 3 years paid off on this mortgage and also a load of hassle out of the way.

    2. You want to move, sell your house and prices have gone down, well in this case its likely the house you want to move to has gone down relatively also.

    3. You want to move, sell your house and prices have gone up. Well the same logic applies, your house is worth more but you will be paying more for the next house too.

    4. You want to buy a second house and keep your current one. In this case you will still be doing well to be buying a house in a slumped market.

    And to top all of this off, none of it is really relevant because it may not become an issue for at least 5 to 10 years, at that point the dynamics will have changed anyway, possibly population increase, possibly reassurance in house prices (if they have gone down).

    I dont think things are insane enough at the moment to believe they will change too drastically in the near future to have any great affect on your personal finances.

    As someone else pointed out, generally a slowdown in the economy also means a slow down in employment, earnings and therefore mortgages.
    Bluefoam wrote: »
    If I waited for a 10% drop:
    • I wouldn't get a mortgage for the current amount
    • I wouldn't find a house as suitable
    • My buying power would be reduced by the economic environment that allows house prices to fall by 10%

    As it stands, I can afford the house, it won't put a financial strain on me, I need somewhere to live now.

    Waiting is not a suitable option for me...
    antiskeptic wrote: »
    If there is a recession/ hard brexit what do you suppose will happen house prices.

    If you expect they would go down then you would likely be right.

    What do you expect banks to do if property prices start falling, given how badly they were bitten last time round.

    If you expect they would pucker up on lending and demand greater deposits and offer lower ltvs you would likely be correct.

    That you have mortgage approval now doesn't guarantee you would maintain that approval should things go pear shaped.

    Many experienced the dilemma last time round. They didn't buy a house in the madness, saw prices tumble, couldn't get a mortgage and spent 10 years renting. At which point houses prices had gone back up.

    That's a good point, mortgages might not be so easy to come by if things do take a turn. With the economy doing well in recent years it's easy to forget.


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    #21
    hmmm
    Registered Users Posts: 11,205 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    o1s1n wrote: »
    Coupled with Brexit and I'd be holding off for a bit.
    You hold off, and then what happens if Brexit doesn't happen? Or Trump decides he wants a booming economy for re-election in 2020, and ends his trade wars? Or the new governor of the CBI decides to lift lending limits? Suddenly everything looks rosy again and you'll find you're priced out of the market.

    Personally I think if you're reasonably settled in where you're located, have a job or career which is reasonably settled, you're not over-stretching yourself and will be buying a place that could do you for 10 years, then with current rental costs you should probably be buying. Worst case prices go down, but if you're not sitting there refreshing the prices and enjoy having your own place you'll be financially fine.


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    #22
    Darc19
    Registered Users Posts: 3,817 ✭✭✭Darc19


    If you've got a very good mortgage rate (avoid ptsb and Boi) and come across a property that you know you can live in for at least 6-8 years, then go for it.

    Prices may drop back a small bit, but that's very much at the middle and top end. The more affordable properties are still rising at a low rate.

    But there's no mad rush, so just wait for the right property and pull the trigger. With exceptionally low long term fixed rates, it's way cheaper than a mortgage.


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    #23
    cgcsb
    Registered Users Posts: 9,310 ✭✭✭cgcsb


    Read the Q2 2019 daft report. 3 bed semis are dropping in value in all dublin postcodes, largely due to a lot of new suburban stock being built. The price of 1 and 2 bed apartments, especially in central areas continues to rise, mostly due to limited stock and very few new schemes will be finished in the immediate future. If you wait till early next year the price of the 3 bed semi may bottom out again because supply is still very tight.

    I think a lot of developers lost the run of themselves in the present cycle, asking for 350k for suburban 2 beds, word on the street is people aren't paying it, and are paying even less for the second hand stock, especially in traditionally kosher areas where overpricing is a religion. There's certainly no panic to buy in the family homes market. Smaller units are where we'll see price growth for the next few years.


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    #24
    riclad
    Registered Users Posts: 8,184 ✭✭✭riclad


    Lets say theres a crisis when brexit happen,s ,
    you might find it hard to get a large mortgage.
    Or you will need to have a larger deposit ,than at the moment.
    prices went up by 2 per cent in the last 12 month,s.
    According to move, sunday times survey.
    So you wait for 2 years ,
    that means you pay rent for the next 2 years .
    My advice is buy now or wait for 6 months .
    Theres a small amount of new house,.s for sale ,
    over 300k .Builders seem to find it easier to build apartments .
    No one knows what will happen,
    so saying i,ll just wait for a 10 per cent drop is risky .


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    #25
    pearcider
    Registered Users Posts: 1,033 ✭✭✭pearcider


    It’s all speculation of course but I wouldn’t buy now. Prices have doubled since the bottom in 2012. So clearly not a good deal. Ireland is highly exposed to a downturn in the US economy which is in its 121st month of expansion - the longest in history. My advice. Wait for the recession.


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    #26
    mariaalice
    Registered Users Posts: 12,415 ✭✭✭✭mariaalice


    pearcider wrote: »
    It’s all speculation of course but I wouldn’t buy now. Prices have doubled since the bottom in 2012. So clearly not a good deal. Ireland is highly exposed to a downturn in the US economy which is in its 121st month of expansion - the longest in history. My advice. Wait for the recession.

    The intellegence of some people who are contemplating the bigges financial out lay of their life you would have to wonder.

    I presume purchasers are not just taking advice from strangers on the internet and have factored in the trolling element threads like this attrac

    Everyone did not do benfite in the purchases of a property when the celtic tiger collapsed, finance for properties became more difficult to get unemployment rose very rapidly( of course that is never going to happen to them its going to be all good )

    Its amazing those who think a downturn will benefit them and have no negative effect on them at all and are unable to see all the circumstances.


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    #27
    Mike9832
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,912 ✭✭✭Mike9832


    Waiting is for people with means


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    #28
    Interested Observer
    Registered Users Posts: 13,051 ✭✭✭✭Interested Observer


    pearcider wrote: »
    Wait for the recession.

    This, imo, is rubbish advice. In the event of a recession the number of mortgages approved will collapse. Thinking you can take the 'benefits' of a recession without it touching you negatively is absolute fantasy.


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    #29
    mariaalice
    Registered Users Posts: 12,415 ✭✭✭✭mariaalice


    Interested Observer wrote: »
    This, imo, is rubbish advice. In the event of a recession the number of mortgages approved will collapse. Thinking you can take the 'benefits' of a recession without it touching you negatively is absolute fantasy.

    But that is the point, its a little fantasy for some akin to a small loto win and that is perfectly fine as long as they are not taking it seriously as a strategy for buying a home.


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    #30
    ELM327
    Registered Users Posts: 21,719 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    Mike9832 wrote: »
    Waiting is for people with significantly above average means


    People who do not need a mortgage to buy should probably wait.
    But for the rest of us mere mortals who - despite the screeches of the loony left - are not rich with 100k-120k combined salary - we must go now when banks are giving mortgages. I remember the last crisis. I wanted to buy an apartment in Blanch as an investment, they were listed at 90k, just over twice my income at the time. Bank wouldn't give me a loan.


    Same apartment now is probably closer to 290


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    #31
    pearcider
    Registered Users Posts: 1,033 ✭✭✭pearcider


    You could get a loan in 2012 if you had a secure job and a good deposit and a credit history. There was 6 billion euro drawn down in 2012 with the average FTB mortgage of 153,000. Average FTB mortgage last year was 220,000. Let that sink in.

    If you can’t rely on a job and savings in the bad times why would you want to overpay in the good times if you’re goosed when the recession comes anyway.


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