Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Imreoir2 · 13-08-2019 01:07PM

brickster69 wrote: »

Do you get it ? No one will be forced to buy chlorinated Chicken. Next you will be saying all Beef in America is hormone treated.

If the UK opens itself up to the US market, and allows lower regulation standards as a result, then UK agriculture will be driven out of business and the UK consumer will be forced to consume US products becase of a lack of a home grown alternative, and they will be sicker as a result. The wealthy will still have their Welsh lamb because they can aford it, but the high standards they have today wont be viable for mass market production because the US produces will always win on price so most Uk farmers will be driven out and those that remain will have to lower their own standards to compeat. The ordinary punter will be eating US muck or similar standard UK produced muck, and will have to go to the doctor more often as a result.

Professor Moriarty · 13-08-2019 01:09PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Irish GDP is so heavily distorted by the impact of multinationals that it is now a meaningless number.

Modified GNI is the number we use here now.

Indeed. The Irish government and the EU still refer to it though.

KildareP · 13-08-2019 01:11PM

funkey_monkey wrote: »

That equates to approx 600 + 600 + 400 = 1,600 container capacity. How does that align with the needs?
What additional resources are the other companies producing?

I did manage to find this:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44657460

It seems to take 1.5 days approx to sail Dublin to Rotterdam so a round trip every 3 days.

Capacity = 1,600 * (365/3) = 194,000

So it would seem Ireland is on schedule at least to lessen the impact of bypassing GB.

One question - do these RoRo ferries taken the tractor units too or just the trailers? The figures quote 'containers' but I assume RoRo would infer the tractor units too.
Is that accounted for in the 190,000 figure from the IFTA or is that a different statistic?

All three of Stena's ships operating from Ireland can do Ireland-France or Spain.
They've another ferry on order due next year.

Three of Irish Ferries can do Ireland-France or Spain too.
The Swift probably could too (at a stretch and significantly higher fuel cost).
They've another ferry on order due next year.

Brittany Ferries operates two ferries out of Cork to France (Roscoff) and Spain (Santander), with two trips a week, that also incorporates a stop off in Plymouth - presumably that could be cut out to possibly add a third trip.

prawnsambo · 13-08-2019 01:11PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Indeed. The Irish government and the EU still refer to it though.

In terms of budgetary analysis and for calculation of each country's payments to the EU, they use modified GNI afaik.

RobAMerc · 13-08-2019 01:14PM

More than anything else, the UK government’s vow that future food imports must meet the same UK standards could be the biggest blocker. George Eustice, a minister for environment, food and rural affairs until February 2019, told a House of Lords inquiry into Brexit and agriculture that “beef produced in Brazil, Uruguay and the US is cheaper than in the EU and, in particular, in the UK, but that comes at the price of using hormones in beef and all sorts of approaches that probably would cause consumer reaction here, and the quality of the product is far inferior to what we have”.

I think this is whats really worrying and to my mind a large driver behind why brexiteers really want Brexit.
The Eu if nothing else has been excellent at managing food quality, human and workers rights - the above is just one of the many fronts the citizens of the UK are being attacked upon from within.

trellheim · 13-08-2019 01:18PM

Didnt the recent Agriculture deal allow for 30,000 tons of US hormone free beef to be allowed in or am I getting this misremembered

prawnsambo · 13-08-2019 01:20PM

trellheim wrote: »

Didnt the recent Agriculture deal allow for 30,000 tons of US hormone free beef to be allowed in or am I getting this misremembered

No. It has to meet EU standards. Checked before shipping afaik.

storker · 13-08-2019 01:20PM

RobAMerc wrote: »

I think this is whats really worrying and to my mind a large driver behind why brexiteers really want Brexit.
The Eu if nothing else has been excellent at managing food quality, human and workers rights - the above is just one of the many fronts the citizens of the UK are being attacked upon from within.

More like "removing controls" than "taking back control". But I think it was obvious from early on that they weren't getting out of the EU only to keep EU controls and protections in place. The UK is likely to end up the wild west of Europe in even more ways than it is currently.

Lackadaisical · 13-08-2019 01:21PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Irish GDP is so heavily distorted by the impact of multinationals that it is now a meaningless number.

Modified GNI is the number we use here now.

Similar should be used for the UK too due to the very distorting effect of the City of London companies on their GDP. It’s also quite seriously distorted versus the real economy.

The UK is also counting a lot of items that are passing through as exports due to it being a logistical and transactional hub and gateway to EU at present. That’s going to change dramatically and I suspect those stats aren’t quite being modeled properly.

GNI would give you a better picture of what’s going to impact non London bubble jobs.

trellheim · 13-08-2019 01:44PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

No. It has to meet EU standards. Checked before shipping afaik.

Sorry yes slightly misremembered. So if the US can ship 30,000 tons of EU-safe beef then surely they can ship more ? Probably what the UK is hoping anyway

VinLieger · 13-08-2019 01:46PM

trellheim wrote: »

Sorry yes slightly misremembered. So if the US can ship 30,000 tons of EU-safe beef then surely they can ship more ? Probably what the UK is hoping anyway

Why would they though? Its more expensive to meet EU standards and the US are going to be the ones dictating the terms not the UK so they arent exactly going to be looking to put more costs on their side when they don't need to.

reslfj · 13-08-2019 02:14PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Irish GDP is so heavily distorted by the impact of multinationals that it is now a meaningless number.

Modified GNI is the number we use here now.

Indeed. The Irish government and the EU still refer to it though.

prawnsambo wrote: »

In terms of budgetary analysis and for calculation of each country's payments to the EU, they use modified GNI afaik.

Ireland must strategically realise and plan with losing tax income from big companies routing their profit from elsewhere in EU through Ireland and a low tax rate.

Developed economies must collect large tax revenues. Companies (and rich people) will have to accept they have to pay - and pay heavily too.
EU competition rules already fines companies for not paying enough taxes.

Brexit makes "...it be not now, yet it will come".

Lars

brickster69 · 13-08-2019 02:18PM

reslfj wrote: »

Ireland must strategically realise and plan with losing tax income from big companies routing their profit from elsewhere in EU through Ireland and a low tax rate.

Developed economies must collect large tax revenues. Companies (and rich people) will have to accept they have to pay - and pay heavily too.
EU competition rules already fines companies for not paying enough taxes.

Brexit makes "...it be not now, yet it will come".

Lars

Too late Lars, it has started

https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1161231552023584768

Lackadaisical · 13-08-2019 02:22PM

You have to admire the self grandiose notion that the UK could dictate trade terms to the US, particularly in its current setup with a presidency that is basically a trade isolationist and someone willing to use trade terms to political advantage.

Why exactly do so many commentators seem to think the US would, for example, allow the UK to operate a tax and regulatory haven with full access to the US consumer and financial services market? All that would do is undermine jobs in the US.

They’ll get a trade deal but it’ll be as the poor relation without any power. Look at how Trump is treating Canada and Mexico. He didn’t think twice about basically starting a trade war with his next door neighbours.

He moans about the EU because it’s capable of holding its own ground, as it’s a very powerful economic entity in its own right.

He’s probably just sizing up Buckingham Palace as a new golf resort.

Duggie2012 · 13-08-2019 02:23PM

Lackadaisical wrote: »

On the risk to supply of food products after October 31st on Irish supermarket shelves, the one thing I would say is Ireland is a relatively small and easy to supply market - you’re talking 2 or 3 distribution centers for the largest supermarkets and relatively short supply chains.

It will hugely advantage domestic producers of like for like goods, and there are lots of them. That will actually help mitigate the damage to some of our food exports as domestic consumption of locally produced stuff will, certainly in the short term, increase.

The big multinational brands are just that - multinational and will just begin to route products probably from the Benelux and France. A lot of Benelux products are even already even labeled in English (as well as French and Dutch and often German too).

Some things will either become hard to get or become more expensive, although collapsing sterling may buffer that for a good while.

I would suspect the prospect of a major GBP collapse will take a lot of pressure off Irish retailers on this but on the other side of it, you could see massive disruption in the UK itself and issues with companies folding due to higher costs on their ingredients, so I wouldn’t necessarily rely on that either.

Of the Irish supermarkets chains : Dunnes is very, very resourceful and isn’t likely to be caught short. I don’t see Musgraves having issues either. Both companies operate supermarkets in Spain too which means they have access to supply chains beyond Ireland.

Tesco Ireland is not as attached to the mother ship as people seem to think. They’re also a major player in parts of Europe too so, again they’ve access to alternatives.

Lidl and Aldi are German and global so again, I think they’ll be fine somehow.

We could potentially see major issues for M&S food though. Yet, they’re still investing quite heavily here - new store in limerick just announced so, they must have some kind of contingency ideas.

For non food items, E.g. clothes, electronics, etc, very very little of that, in any retailer here, is made in the UK, so it’s really just a matter of shipping boxes slightly differently and not transiting UK supply chains. The way modern logistics works, that’s not all that complicated as there typically isn’t a load of warehousing steps between the manufacturer and the retail outlet. Items are quite often just produced somewhere and then delivered by a logistics operator via whatever route is most effective and absolutely none of that stuff is time sensitive.

all that makes it sound easy. im sure we wont starve anyway.

Lackadaisical · 13-08-2019 02:27PM

Duggie2012 wrote: »

all that makes it sound easy. im sure we wont starve anyway.

I’m not saying it’s easy but it’s also not the disaster that is being painted by UK commentators. They’re quite good at their own version of “project fear” too. We aren’t the ones ripping up our largest and deepest trade arrangements or undermining all of our domestic and foreign businesses by completely dismantling the whole underlying regulatory environment, market access and even currency.

prawnsambo · 13-08-2019 02:28PM

brickster69 wrote: »

Too late Lars, it has started

https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1161231552023584768

Joe seems to have forgotten that the Eurozone crisis started in late 2009.

VinLieger · 13-08-2019 02:29PM

Duggie2012 wrote: »

all that makes it sound easy. im sure we wont starve anyway.

We definitely won't starve, we can feed around 35 million people with what we produce, whereas the UK can only produces around 61% of the food it requires

VinLieger · 13-08-2019 02:30PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

Joe seems to have forgotten that the Eurozone crisis started in late 2009.

Brickster also seems to be ignoring this is being triggered by the US/China trade war and Brexit is a flea bite compared to the trouble that can potentially cause.

brickster69 · 13-08-2019 02:30PM

Lackadaisical wrote: »

You have to admire the self grandiose notion that the UK could dictate trade terms to the US, particularly in its current setup with a presidency that is basically a trade isolationist and someone willing to use trade terms to political advantage.

Why exactly do so many commentators seem to think the US would, for example, allow the UK to operate a tax and regulatory haven with full access to the US consumer and financial services market? All that would do is undermine jobs in the US.

They’ll get a trade deal but it’ll be as the poor relation without any power. Look at how Trump is treating Canada and Mexico. He didn’t think twice about basically starting a trade war with his next door neighbours.

He moans about the EU because it’s capable of holding its own ground, as it’s a very powerful economic entity in its own right.

He’s probably just sizing up Buckingham Palace as a new golf resort.

You would think getting the biggest free trade deal in the world sorted would be a feather in the cap of Trump with an election coming up.

A few rousing speeches by Boris and Nigel should just about be enough for him to get another term.

Professor Moriarty · 13-08-2019 02:31PM

Lackadaisical wrote: »

I’m not saying it’s easy but it’s also not the disaster that is being painted by UK commentators. They’re quite good at their own version of “project feat” too. We aren’t the ones ripping up our largest and deepest trade arrangements or undermining all of our domestic and foreign businesses by completely dismantling the whole underlying regulatory environment, market access and even currency.

While simultaneously shredding the last vestiges of goodwill that their closest neighbours might have for them. Their behaviour throughout the past three years has been appalling and insulting. A lesson in stupidity, politically and diplomatically.

prawnsambo · 13-08-2019 02:33PM

brickster69 wrote: »

You would think getting the biggest free trade deal in the world sorted would be a feather in the cap of Trump with an election coming up.

A few rousing speeches by Boris and Nigel should just about be enough for him to get another term.

That would be the EU-Japan trade deal.

Lackadaisical · 13-08-2019 02:33PM

brickster69 wrote: »

You would think getting the biggest free trade deal in the world sorted would be a feather in the cap of Trump with an election coming up.

A few rousing speeches by Boris and Nigel should just about be enough for him to get another term.

For a president who promised protectionism ?!? Seems very unlikely.

ilovesmybrick · 13-08-2019 02:35PM

brickster69 wrote: »

You would think getting the biggest free trade deal in the world sorted would be a feather in the cap of Trump with an election coming up.

A few rousing speeches by Boris and Nigel should just about be enough for him to get another term.

I think you'll find that the biggest free trade deal in the world is between the EU and Japan covering more than 600 million people...which the UK is leaving being part of for the possibility of a deal with the US, so covering approximately 400 million people.

prawnsambo · 13-08-2019 02:37PM

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

I think you'll find that the biggest free trade deal in the world is between the EU and Japan covering more than 600 million people...which the UK is leaving being part of for the possibility of a deal with the US, so covering approximately 400 million people.

Also bigger in terms of combined GDP.

VinLieger · 13-08-2019 02:39PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

That would be the EU-Japan trade deal.

The ignorant and oblivious arrogance is quite astonishing

serfboard · 13-08-2019 02:42PM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Apparently thiings will be ok for the UK due to their contingency planning being done by PM Johnson (according to the CEO of Next)...

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/retail-and-services/next-boss-says-britain-can-avoid-no-deal-brexit-disorder-bbc-1.3984874

The Irish Times wrote:

Next chief executive Simon Wolfson, a prominent leave supporter ...

That's all I need to read there.

Professor Moriarty · 13-08-2019 02:43PM

brickster69 wrote: »

You would think getting the biggest free trade deal in the world sorted would be a feather in the cap of Trump with an election coming up.

A few rousing speeches by Boris and Nigel should just about be enough for him to get another term.

Forgive me, my geography is poor. How far is it from Dover to Calais? How far is it from Dover to New York?

reslfj · 13-08-2019 02:45PM

brickster69 wrote: »

Too late Lars, it has started

https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1161231552023584768

What does some German worries over the future of world growth have to do with Ireland having to rethink the viability of its low corporate tax rates.

Nothing.

Lars

PS! The German economy is larger and much stronger than the UK's. Germany can do much that the UK can't afford even before Brexit - let alone a 'No Deal Brexit. But " Gegen Trumpheit kämpfen Götter selbst vergebens " /modernised from Talbot

brickster69 · 13-08-2019 02:48PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Forgive me, my geography is poor. How far is it from Dover to Calais? How far is it from Dover to New York?

No idea. Pretty sure it is less than Calais to Tokyo or Calais to Montevideo

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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