Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Bit cynical · 12-08-2019 11:03PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Why are they waiting until 31/10 to leave?

Is it a dare or what, game of chicken maybe.

Well, in the original two year A50 period, the UK could not leave in advance of the end of the period without being in breach of the treaty. So with the period extended, they can't leave before the end of the extended date. The exception to this is if a withdrawal agreement were made during the extension, then the UK would leave the following month.

Spanish Eyes · 12-08-2019 11:03PM

I don't think all UK is so anti Irish at all. It is a construct of the Cummings variety and the usual media. Who is listening?

This is really awful stuff now. But I live in hope.

Sadly, I hope UK will leave now. Never thought I would say that ever, but things happen.

The disaster for us here, is if the EU might capitulate and facilitate the UK.

I sincerely hope they don't. But we have a veto I think. Not sure on what terms though. Someone might help me out here.

lawred2 · 12-08-2019 11:05PM

allthedoyles wrote: »

They are biding their time until Parliament fail in their bid to stop no deal brexit.
Then they will have the leverage to put the gun to the head of the EU.

The EU isn't in the room any longer. There's no one left but themselves.

Spanish Eyes · 12-08-2019 11:06PM

Roger_007 wrote: »

I think that it's now too late for the UK to remain in the EU. Even if there was another referendum and the result was to remain, there is no way that the rest of the EU would welcome that result. Over the past three years they have lost any respect and influence that they once had as members.
Also, there is no way that the UK could, with any dignity, go back to the EU and say "actually we don't want to leave at all". That would be a humiliation that the British would find it hard to stomach.
In all probability, if there was a new referendum the result would not be any more decisive than the last one and so the internal warfare would continue and cause even more disruption within the EU.
The continuing membership of the UK is damaging the EU. The best thing that could happen is that they leave, and sooner rather than later.

With a heavy heart, I agree with you.

ThePanjandrum · 12-08-2019 11:08PM

trellheim wrote: »

He does not. Go look at the FTPA

This bit?

(7)If a parliamentary general election is to take place as provided for by subsection (1) or (3), the polling day for the election is to be the day appointed by Her Majesty by proclamation on the recommendation of the Prime Minister (and, accordingly, the appointed day replaces the day which would otherwise have been the polling day for the next election determined under section 1).

am i bovvered · 12-08-2019 11:11PM

trellheim wrote: »

Tom Newton Dunn from the Sun. This is likely the position so if he is pushing this

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/9709116/boris-johnson-eu-cave-in-ireland-no-deal/

No source named, as usual by this ‘publication’ (I use the term very loosely)
It’s this type of journalism that has the UK in its current state.

ThePanjandrum · 12-08-2019 11:13PM

serfboard wrote: »

I'm sorry but you've misread the article you've quoted which says that there is no meeting scheduled - different thing. In fact the article actually says:

So in other words, a meeting is planned, but, since a date has not been fixed, it is not scheduled. I'm not being pedantic for the sake of it - the words used are important.

I was glad to see further in that article, that Jo Swinson has visited the border:

And she had a nice swipe at Boris:

It's usually the newly appointed leader who is contacted by the existing leader.

BonnieSituation · 12-08-2019 11:14PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I don't think all UK is so anti Irish at all. It is a construct of the Cummings variety and the usual media. Who is listening?

This is really awful stuff now. But I live in hope.

Sadly, I hope UK will leave now. Never thought I would say that ever, but things happen.

The disaster for us here, is if the EU might capitulate and facilitate the UK.

I sincerely hope they don't. But we have a veto I think. Not sure on what terms though. Someone might help me out here.

It needs to be continually reiterated: WE ARE THE EU!

Spanish Eyes · 12-08-2019 11:20PM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

It needs to be continually reiterated: WE ARE THE EU!

I know this. But unless we have a veto over decisions we ARE at the mercy of EU decisions re Brexit.

Do we (ROI) have a veto, sorry to have to ask, but it's late and I think you and others might know the answers. Thanks.

Bit cynical · 12-08-2019 11:22PM

Roger_007 wrote: »

I think that it's now too late for the UK to remain in the EU. Even if there was another referendum and the result was to remain, there is no way that the rest of the EU would welcome that result.

Well, I'm afraid it would have nothing to do with rest of the EU. The UK have the right to withdraw A50 right up to the 31st October and retain full rights, opt-outs, rebates etc. No approval from the EU or other member states required. But they have announced their intention to leave so most likely that is going to happen.

seamus · 12-08-2019 11:24PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

The disaster for us here, is if the EU might capitulate and facilitate the UK.

There will be no capitulation, because the UK has nothing to offer the EU.

Leaving without a backstop is worse than no deal, for the EU. Abandoning the backstop would be the end of the EU.

"Give me your money and I'll shoot you, but if you don't I'll shoot myself". That's what the UK is demanding.

The UK don't get this and won't get this. They don't understand why the bigger countries don't simply trample the small ones. Because that's what the UK has done for centuries.

At this stage I would rather they leave with no deal at all than listen to them whinge about the withdrawal agreement for the next 50 years.

Water John · 12-08-2019 11:25PM

Tom Newton Dunn usually has a good measure of what is going on. Yes they seem to think that this is the place Ireland is in.
Again, they are incorrect.

trellheim · 12-08-2019 11:25PM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

This bit?

(7)If a parliamentary general election is to take place as provided for by subsection (1) or (3), the polling day for the election is to be the day appointed by Her Majesty by proclamation on the recommendation of the Prime Minister (and, accordingly, the appointed day replaces the day which would otherwise have been the polling day for the next election determined under section 1).

Certainly. Liz sets the day was my point ( on the recommendation of the PM, but it is not the PM's job to set it )

Capt'n Midnight · 12-08-2019 11:30PM

seamus wrote: »

There will be no capitulation, because the UK has nothing to offer the EU.

But, but , the EU will need the UK to buy stuff, paid for by services exports to the EU.

If the EU give in then the EU will have to create lots of EU jobs in the services industry because the existing rules mean the UK will be blocked from continuing to offer those services.

BonnieSituation · 12-08-2019 11:36PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I know this. But unless we have a veto over decisions we ARE at the mercy of EU decisions re Brexit.

Do we (ROI) have a veto, sorry to have to ask, but it's late and I think you and others might know the answers. Thanks.

There is no mercy.

WE are the EU.

It has been stated repeatedly that "If Ireland isn't happy then the rest of the EU isn't happy". It really can't be repeated more often.

ThePanjandrum · 12-08-2019 11:37PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I know this. But unless we have a veto over decisions we ARE at the mercy of EU decisions re Brexit.

Do we (ROI) have a veto, sorry to have to ask, but it's late and I think you and others might know the answers. Thanks.

The Withdrawal Agreement is accepted by a Qualified Majority vote so there is no veto.

https://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-18-1361_en.htm

Kermit.de.frog · 12-08-2019 11:37PM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

There is no mercy.

WE are the EU.

It has been stated repeatedly that "If Ireland isn't happy then the rest of the EU isn't happy". It really can't be repeated more often.

They better live up to their promises

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EZBaB1Px6pQ

Westernyelp · 12-08-2019 11:38PM

VinLieger wrote: »

A majority of the Conservative and UNIONIST party members when polled support brexit at any cost even if it means the dissolution of the union......

49% is not a majority

However the whole thing is bat**** crazy

Westernyelp · 12-08-2019 11:40PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

They better live up to their promises

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EZBaB1Px6pQ

If they don't The EU will surely rip apart at the seams. the Union will mean nothing

ThePanjandrum · 12-08-2019 11:42PM

trellheim wrote: »

Certainly. Liz sets the day was my point ( on the recommendation of the PM, but it is not the PM's job to set it )

The Queen accepts the PM's recommendation, she will not change or refuse it so the date is decided by the PM

Spanish Eyes · 12-08-2019 11:49PM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

There is no mercy.

WE are the EU.

It has been stated repeatedly that "If Ireland isn't happy then the rest of the EU isn't happy". It really can't be repeated more often.

But do we have a veto over decisions made by EU that will affect us regarding Brexit? That is my question.

A pp seems to suggest it is QM vote.

Who is right here, do we have a veto over decisions that may be made that will affect us or not.

I am not expecting you personally to answer, but it it is a question I have nonetheless.

Bit cynical · 12-08-2019 11:55PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

But do we have a veto over decisions made by EU that will affect us regarding Brexit? That is my question.

A pp seems to suggest it is QM vote.

Who is right here, do we have a veto over decisions that may be made that will affect us or not.

I am not expecting you personally to answer, but it it is a question I have nonetheless.

We have a veto over future trade deals.

But we don't have a veto over the withdrawal agreement which covers such things as a transition period, existing workers' rights in the UK, the border on the island of Ireland and so forth.

BonnieSituation · 12-08-2019 11:57PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

But do we have a veto over decisions made by EU that will affect us regarding Brexit? That is my question.

A pp seems to suggest it is QM vote.

Who is right here, do we have a veto over decisions that may be made that will affect us or not.

I am not expecting you personally to answer, but it it is a question I have nonetheless.

A veto to a decision over what exactly?

Capt'n Midnight · 12-08-2019 11:57PM

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/number-of-british-passports-issued-in-northern-ireland-falls-1.3983176

Sammy trying to explain away the drop in British passports in Northern Ireland.

Sammy Wilson, the DUP MP for East Antrim and the party’s Brexit spokesman, said he was “not particularly” concerned about the trend of declining British passports and increasing Irish passports.

trellheim · 13-08-2019 12:04AM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

The Queen accepts the PM's recommendation, she will not change or refuse it so the date is decided by the PM

Its there in black and white , the day is set by the monarch. If they had meant the PM to set it they would have put it in the FTPA. In practice, since the passing of the FTPA as so far the Queen has accepted 1 recommendation on this so far, of Theresa May's go for an early election.

No test of this under VONC has yet been made.

My point I suppose here is it is all very new ground and convention, that most usual of British constitution, does not yet apply - as no-ones done it so far.

BonnieSituation · 13-08-2019 12:04AM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/number-of-british-passports-issued-in-northern-ireland-falls-1.3983176

Sammy trying to explain away the drop in British passports in Northern Ireland.

Interesting line:

"The figures do not include Irish citizens in the North who apply for their passports from Dublin."

They're hardly suggesting non-Irish citizens are getting passports now are they? :P

Strazdas · 13-08-2019 12:13AM

Water John wrote: »

Tom Newton Dunn usually has a good measure of what is going on. Yes they seem to think that this is the place Ireland is in.
Again, they are incorrect.

I like Tom, he's a very good writer and a nice man.

The Brexiteers are delusional though....they seem to think No Deal will somehow decimate the Irish economy

maebee · 13-08-2019 12:17AM

Valhallapt wrote: »

Initially I’m surprised by the arrogance of this:
https://twitter.com/SteveBarclay/status/1160955101323911169

But then when you put it alongside the rhetoric of the express column posted above, you realize that it’s a case of gross exaggeration. He probably had a sheepish phone call, then went back to his mates to tell them how he put big Phil in his place,

It reminds me of Jay from the inbetweeners, embellishing his love making conquests ;-)

What part of "the UK created the "state" of NI and THEY created the backstop does he not understand?

Imreoir2 · 13-08-2019 01:33AM

Strazdas wrote: »

I like Tom, he's a very good writer and a nice man.

The Brexiteers are delusional though....they seem to think No Deal will somehow decimate the Irish economy

Decimation would be a reduction by 10%, so not too far off. NI actually will be decimated, as will much of the rest of the UK. Ireland will also suffer quite a lot, rough times ahead.

Strazdas · 13-08-2019 02:02AM

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Decimation would be a reduction by 10%, so not too far off. NI actually will be decimated, as will much of the rest of the UK. Ireland will also suffer quite a lot, rough times ahead.

There's talk of 50k job losses in Ireland with No Deal. The current labour market in the ROI is 2.2m....50k would be about 2.5% of that figure

Even if the jobs were lost, there's nothing to say many of them couldn't be regained in a year or two by Ireland diversifying its export market

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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