Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Kaybaykwah · 12-08-2019 02:15PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Can she tell him to go? Appoint a PM? Behead someone?

Yes, well beheading is making a radical short shrift of an argument. It is considered bad form but still, HM is a traditionalist and in that sense might want to revive said form in all its regal accoutrements.

robinph · 12-08-2019 02:16PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Rather a strange "worst case scenario" image, it appears to assume that trade stops completely and is not replaced at all.
Rather silly to assume that a car buyer who can't get a BMW will not buy a car at all, of course not, he'll buy something else. Same for BMW, if they can't sell the car in the UK, they'll make them to sell somewhere else.

The way the brexiteers carry on you'd think that the only make of car on the roads of the UK was BMW and everyone bought a brand new car twice a year?

KildareP · 12-08-2019 02:17PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Reading this in the Telegraph

Ok, it's a pre-condition, so what exactly is the UK threatening the EU with if the pre-condition is not met?

That's how absurd that reads.

"We are going to pull the trigger, blow our heads off and you might get some blood on your shirts"!

EU should turn the tables then and say "You are out on Oct 31, deal or no deal" and hammer home that message.

I think the EU silence at the moment is the perfect approach, personally.

A reaction is exactly what they're hoping for here so they have something to run with in the press and on their campaign.

To be stonewalled instead must be absolutely killing them.

It must also be increasing cause for concern because they can't get any sort of read on where the EU is at in terms of Brexit - they can neither claim they're the big bully nor claim they're about to crack and give-in so the UK don't know for certain whether the EU are going to call their bluff or not.

trellheim · 12-08-2019 02:22PM

For one reason or another I've been reading Johnsons tweets/replies - https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/with_replies

If that doesn't spell a GE grid I dunno what does

Lackadaisical · 12-08-2019 02:22PM

The talk of the Queen stepping in to politics and intervening is about as ludicrous as the talk about Sinn Fein taking seats in Westminster. In both cases it’s simply not going to happen as it’s contrary to everything they stand for.

The Queen seems to take her constitutional position as figurehead and nothing more than that extremely seriously and she’s never put a foot wrong or practically had a hair out of place for her entire career. I would assume she’ll just let the Commons figure it out.

In some ways it has to happen that way too. I am increasingly of the opinion that the UK body politic and media need to make this mistake and feel the consequences of their political decisions. Nobody really can jump in and prevent it. It’s their mess and they need to deal with it themselves and figure it out. Sovereignty includes having to live with your own decisions.

I really don’t see it being resolved by just sweeping Brexit to the margins. It will just keep coming back. It needs to play out and if it’s a success (very unlikely) all fine and well but if it’s a failure (likely) then the lies and spin need to be dealt with by the electorate. They swallowed this hook, line and sinker and they need to deal with that and learn from it.

robinph · 12-08-2019 02:33PM

Lackadaisical wrote: »

The talk of the Queen stepping in to politics and intervening is about as ludicrous as the talk about Sinn Fein taking seats in Westminster. In both cases it’s simply not going to happen as it’s contrary to everything they stand for.

The Queen seems to take her constitutional position as figurehead and nothing more than that extremely seriously and she’s never put a foot wrong or practically had a hair out of place for her entire career. I would assume she’ll just let the Commons figure it out.

Who knows what she actually says in her weekly meetings with the PM though? Nobody has ever actually divulged anything about those meetings, but they have also never stopped having them over the years so there must be some worth to them happening from the PM's perspective.

I'm sure she's offering more than just tea and biscuits, and it can't just be for the sake of carrying on with the tradition as other than each PM's first and last meeting with the Queen nobody is paying attention to the ceremony of it.

LeinsterDub · 12-08-2019 02:35PM

Lackadaisical wrote: »

The talk of the Queen stepping in to politics and intervening is about as ludicrous as the talk about Sinn Fein taking seats in Westminster. In both cases it’s simply not going to happen as it’s contrary to everything they stand for.

The Queen seems to take her constitutional position as figurehead and nothing more than that extremely seriously and she’s never put a foot wrong or practically had a hair out of place for her entire career. I would assume she’ll just let the Commons figure it out.

How would she stay it out when the problem is brought to her doorstep?

If Johnson loses a vote and refuses to step aside while a other candidate claims to have the support of the house who does she acknowledge?

If Johnson decided to Prorogue parliament but the house refuses to accept it who does she side with?

Tell me how · 12-08-2019 02:36PM

Honest to God but this is depressing.

A Cabinet of women is what is needed according to Caroline Lucas.

We need an “emergency cabinet” – not to fight a Brexit war but to work for reconciliation. And I believe this should be a cabinet of women.

Why women? Because I believe women have shown they can bring a different perspective to crises, are able to reach out to those they disagree with and cooperate to find solutions. It was two women, Betty Williams and Mairead Corrigan, who began the Peace People movement during the worst of the Troubles in Northern Ireland; it was two women, Christiana Figueres and Ségolène Royal, who were key to the signing of the Paris climate agreement; intractable problems have found the beginning of resolution thanks to the leadership of women.

Ignoring the fact that former PM Theresa May is by all accounts a woman, to suggest gender is a factor in selecting a path through this is not only regressive (it permits the argument that gender is a determinable factor) in the extreme but so bizarre to suggest it at this stage that it is funny.

I was impressed with Caroline and some of her performances on QT earlier in the year but this has had me shaking my head since I heard it this morning.

Every EU advocate is in despair at the position and approach of Johnson, disgusted at the self-serving apathy of Corbyn and now, Caroline has suggested this which is giving Brexiteers a stick to beat the remainers with.

Lackadaisical · 12-08-2019 02:38PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

How would she stay it out when the problem is brought to her doorstep?

If Johnson loses a vote and refuses to step aside while a other candidate claims to have the support of the house who does she acknowledge?

If Johnson decided to Prorogue parliament but the house refuses to accept it who does she side with?

I’d honestly guess she’ll just sit there and do nothing, probably hoping someone takes a Supreme Court Case.

I quite honestly wouldn’t be surprised if her weekly meetings are tea and biscuits and a chat about the weather. She’s never said very much about anything and anything she does say is highly scripted and choreographed.

She has had lots of opportunity - for example in her Christmas addresses she could have used huge moral authority to call for a revolution and calm without being at all political and she really didn’t go near it.

I think you really are looking at a figurehead who enjoys a bit of horse racing.

She’s probably a nice old lady and she’s certainly well able to play the role but I think that’s about as much as there is to her. I can’t see her initiating anything.

robinph · 12-08-2019 02:39PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

How would she stay it out when the problem is brought to her doorstep?

If Johnson loses a vote and refuses to step aside while a other candidate claims to have the support of the house who does she acknowledge?

If Johnson decided to Prorogue parliament but the house refuses to accept it who does she side with?

If Johnson doesn't do what parliament says then parliament can arrest him and lock him up beneath Big Ben I believe.

prawnsambo · 12-08-2019 02:44PM

robinph wrote: »

If Johnson doesn't do what parliament says then parliament can arrest him and lock him up beneath Big Ben I believe.

Just under the bells would be ideal.

I did not know that this could be done. I do know that (not sure if it's still in place) there is a rifle range under Westminster. There since before the last war apparently. Not suggesting what use it be put to now of course.

LeinsterDub · 12-08-2019 02:44PM

Lackadaisical wrote: »

I’d honestly guess she’ll just sit there and do nothing, probably hoping someone takes a Supreme Court Case.

Doing nothing is doing something but it's unlikely to come to this.

Enzokk · 12-08-2019 02:55PM

Tell me how wrote: »

Honest to God but this is depressing.

A Cabinet of women is what is needed according to Caroline Lucas.

Ignoring the fact that former PM Theresa May is by all accounts a woman, to suggest gender is a factor in selecting a path through this is not only regressive (it permits the argument that gender is a determinable factor) in the extreme but so bizarre to suggest it at this stage that it is funny.

I was impressed with Caroline and some of her performances on QT earlier in the year but this has had me shaking my head since I heard it this morning.

Every EU advocate is in despair at the position and approach of Johnson, disgusted at the self-serving apathy of Corbyn and now, Caroline has suggested this which is giving Brexiteers a stick to beat the remainers with.

I agree that gender should have no bearing in who should be in charge if a unity government is selected, but think of it this way. Instead of talking about the absurdity of a government of national unity we are now talking about who should be in one. Do you see the difference? Whether that was the plan, I don't know.

At the very least the same way that no-deal has entered into the minds of people by having it spoken about all the time, with this you now are talking about a unity government and if it should happen people will not have been blindsided by it.

Sam Russell · 12-08-2019 02:56PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

How would she stay it out when the problem is brought to her doorstep?

If Johnson loses a vote and refuses to step aside while a other candidate claims to have the support of the house who does she acknowledge?

If Johnson decided to Prorogue parliament but the house refuses to accept it who does she side with?

Watch 'A Very British Coup' with Ray McNally playing PM Harry Perkins - a left wing Labour PM. (but do watch to the very very end). It is available on Ch4 in three episodes.

https://www.channel4.com/programmes/a-very-british-coup

It is brilliant and is very apposite to the current situation. I could tell you why but that would be a spoiler.

FrancieBrady · 12-08-2019 03:01PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Doing nothing is doing something.

My thoughts exactly and why popcorn would be required!

Thing is, was Farage marking a few cards with his speech in Aus.

Tell me how · 12-08-2019 03:04PM

Enzokk wrote: »

I agree that gender should have no bearing in who should be in charge if a unity government is selected, but think of it this way. Instead of talking about the absurdity of a government of national unity we are now talking about who should be in one. Do you see the difference? Whether that was the plan, I don't know.

At the very least the same way that no-deal has entered into the minds of people by having it spoken about all the time, with this you now are talking about a unity government and if it should happen people will not have been blindsided by it.

I don't see any link between Lucas's letter and a conversation about the contents of a Government of national unity other than to ridicule it. Even Emma Barnett was baffled by the gender angle earlier.
The GONU topic was already in the media for the last 10 days or so.

I mean, did anyone remind her that the leaders of the two biggest parties in the North are women and the North has recently broken the record for the longest period without a functioning government.

ancapailldorcha · 12-08-2019 03:07PM

Enzokk wrote: »

I agree that gender should have no bearing in who should be in charge if a unity government is selected, but think of it this way. Instead of talking about the absurdity of a government of national unity we are now talking about who should be in one. Do you see the difference? Whether that was the plan, I don't know.

At the very least the same way that no-deal has entered into the minds of people by having it spoken about all the time, with this you now are talking about a unity government and if it should happen people will not have been blindsided by it.

A national unity government is fantasy in my opinion. The Conservatives are ostensibly a single party and look at how fractured they are. The Greens are very left wing socialists while the Lib Dems are centrist economic liberals. Then there's Labour. There is no room whatsoever for any sort of dissent without significant Tory involvement.

As for Lucas' comments, I wasn't going to post about it but since it's been raised I will. I don't think it's helpful, frankly. The country is already divided enough as it is so I don't see how adding the gender element would help.

reslfj · 12-08-2019 03:08PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The source given there is "University of Leuven". That's as close to unhelpful as I think you could get.

I think it's the Express trying to sell the latest batch of English exceptionalism to its ever ageing readership.

I found this link:

https://www.fdfa.be/sites/default/files/atoms/files/Brexit%20impact%20study%202019.pdf?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=website&utm_campaign=brexit%20action%20plan%202019

Lars

Sam Russell · 12-08-2019 03:08PM

Tell me how wrote: »

I don't see any link between Lucas's letter and a conversation about the contents of a Government of national unity other than to ridicule it. Even Emma Barnett was baffled by the gender angle earlier.
The GONU topic was already in the media for the last 10 days or so.

I think that is like the salesman asking 'What colour would you like it in?' so you think positively about buying it, rather than thinking 'Do I want it?' or even 'What would I want it for?'

The more there is talk about GONU, the more likely it will happen, particularly if that talk is positive.

Enzokk · 12-08-2019 03:11PM

Tell me how wrote: »

I don't see any link between Lucas's letter and a conversation about the contents of a Government of national unity other than to ridicule it. Even Emma Barnett was baffled by the gender angle earlier.
The GONU topic was already in the media for the last 10 days or so.

I mean, did anyone remind her that the leaders of the two biggest parties in the North are women and the North has recently broken the record for the longest period without a functioning government.

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

A national unity government is fantasy in my opinion. The Conservatives are ostensibly a single party and look at how fractured they are. The Greens are very left wing socialists while the Lib Dems are centrist economic liberals. Then there's Labour. There is no room whatsoever for any sort of dissent without significant Tory involvement.

As for Lucas' comments, I wasn't going to post about it but since it's been raised I will. I don't think it's helpful, frankly. The country is already divided enough as it is so I don't see how adding the gender element would help.

I am looking for a positive angle on this. The problem I see is that the staunch Corbynites do not want anything other than him in charge and if it is not him then someone like Dianne Abbott should be there.

I agree that I cannot see how this gets through as Labour will be the fly in the ointment. Just because the Tories has lost it with Brexit doesn't change the fact that Labour under Corbyn is a cult that will easily see a disaster Brexit as a boon for him. He will most likely fight a Unity Government even more than he has fought against no-deal, in case they make a success of it and it shows how incompetent he has been on Brexit.

reslfj · 12-08-2019 03:25PM

reslfj wrote: »

I found this link:

https://www.fdfa.be/sites/default/files/atoms/files/Brexit%20impact%20study%202019.pdf?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=website&utm_campaign=brexit%20action%20plan%202019

Lars

I just skimmed it, so please correct me if I am wrong. But

Where are our (huge) public sectors in impact percent calculations.

Isn't the data from 2014? much has happened since.

Very much Belgium, very little detailed UK

I think it underestimates the value of the no-red-tape SM and the EU FTAs in moving to new customers?

Lars

ancapailldorcha · 12-08-2019 03:27PM

Enzokk wrote: »

I am looking for a positive angle on this. The problem I see is that the staunch Corbynites do not want anything other than him in charge and if it is not him then someone like Dianne Abbott should be there.

And the Liberals will refuse to collaborate with Labour if he is there. Sturgeon may but might insist on Labour committing to an Indyref2.

Enzokk wrote: »

I agree that I cannot see how this gets through as Labour will be the fly in the ointment. Just because the Tories has lost it with Brexit doesn't change the fact that Labour under Corbyn is a cult that will easily see a disaster Brexit as a boon for him. He will most likely fight a Unity Government even more than he has fought against no-deal, in case they make a success of it and it shows how incompetent he has been on Brexit.

Each of these remain parties has a different agenda, as will the liberal Tories who may or may not cooperate with them. You need a leader who can command support from such a broad base. I thought that that might have been Lucas or Swinson but the former is a lot less appealing IMO after making silly remarks like this while the latter is an economic liberal. The closest parallel is, like J Mysterio's excellent post over the week, World War 2 where Churchill, a Liberal-turned-Conservative was the only figure both sides could stomach to lead a government of national unity.

Tell me how · 12-08-2019 03:33PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

And the Liberals will refuse to collaborate with Labour if he is there. Sturgeon may but might insist on Labour committing to an Indyref2.

Each of these remain parties has a different agenda, as will the liberal Tories who may or may not cooperate with them. You need a leader who can command support from such a broad base. I thought that that might have been Lucas or Swinson but the former is a lot less appealing IMO after making silly remarks like this while the latter is an economic liberal. The closest parallel is, like J Mysterio's excellent post over the week, World War 2 where Churchill, a Liberal-turned-Conservative was the only figure both sides could stomach to lead a government of national unity.

I thought a GONU led by Dominic Grieve might come closest to actually being occupied by people who were focused on the best interests of the UK.

Anyone advocating purely though for a government to cancel Brexit is playing with fire in antagonising those who voted for it (as you pointed out earlier, they will forever be told their Brexit was denied to them through various covert measures).

Sam Russell · 12-08-2019 03:36PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

And the Liberals will refuse to collaborate with Labour if he is there. Sturgeon may but might insist on Labour committing to an Indyref2.

Each of these remain parties has a different agenda, as will the liberal Tories who may or may not cooperate with them. You need a leader who can command support from such a broad base. I thought that that might have been Lucas or Swinson but the former is a lot less appealing IMO after making silly remarks like this while the latter is an economic liberal. The closest parallel is, like J Mysterio's excellent post over the week, World War 2 where Churchill, a Liberal-turned-Conservative was the only figure both sides could stomach to lead a government of national unity.

I think for a GONU to be formed, it would need a Tory to be proposed as PM in order to get enough rebel Tories on board. The obvious choice would be Ken Clarke because he is the father of the house, is retiring at the next election, and is a solid remainer.

It would also be a special purpose GONU with the sole purpose of stopping No Deal, and preferably revoke Art 50, and if possible pass a law requiring a two thirds majority to invoke Art 50 again, thus cancelling Art 50 for a generation.

If they look for a 2nd Ref, it will prolong and intensify the madness. Revoke admits it was a mistake, was passed by a slim majority, the result was polluted by illegal activity on the side of Leave, and that the campaign was ridden by lies on an industrial scale and, of course, corrupt funding.

Shelga · 12-08-2019 03:42PM

Those opposed to No Deal have not been able to form any cohesive movement before, I really don’t think they’re capable of it now.

Why has no one advocated parliament coming back early from their summer break? Instead they’re doing absolutely nothing as a collective for the next 22 days, at the most crucial time in their history since WW2.

It’s not going to happen. The anti no-dealers are too splintered. Brace for a crash out.

robinph · 12-08-2019 03:47PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

It would also be a special purpose GONU with the sole purpose of stopping No Deal, and preferably revoke Art 50, and if possible pass a law requiring a two thirds majority to invoke Art 50 again, thus cancelling Art 50 for a generation.

They would never be able to sell a 2/3rds majority requirement, and not sure that it's even required to ensure that an actual reliable view of the population has been met. Requiring a certain percentage turn out and 60%+ to vote for it is more likely, or require a defined majority in each country and approval by each devolved parliament/ assembly.

rob316 · 12-08-2019 03:52PM

RobAMerc wrote: »

So now, according to the express - Germany will loose close to 55% as many jobs as the UK in a no deal Brexit ??
I'm no economist - but are we over egging our importance a bit here ?

EDIT : (Although I see now the source is the University of Leuven Belgium )

We aren't that important but what we represent is what is keeping the EU together. If the WA bends on the backstop and sells out Ireland, its over for the EU. Unity and solidarity is the only thing that ensures the survival of the EU after Brexit.

ancapailldorcha · 12-08-2019 04:02PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

I think for a GONU to be formed, it would need a Tory to be proposed as PM in order to get enough rebel Tories on board. The obvious choice would be Ken Clarke because he is the father of the house, is retiring at the next election, and is a solid remainer.

It would also be a special purpose GONU with the sole purpose of stopping No Deal, and preferably revoke Art 50, and if possible pass a law requiring a two thirds majority to invoke Art 50 again, thus cancelling Art 50 for a generation.

If they look for a 2nd Ref, it will prolong and intensify the madness. Revoke admits it was a mistake, was passed by a slim majority, the result was polluted by illegal activity on the side of Leave, and that the campaign was ridden by lies on an industrial scale and, of course, corrupt funding.

Agreed on the first paragraph.

I mean, as much as I personally would benefit from and support the idea of just binning the whole fell enterprise it would set a dangerous precedent. People voted Leave in 2016. While that can mean anything from Norway to Canada to Turkey to WTO terms, revoking Article 50 would be telling people that what they vote for only matters when it isn't at odds with what the government or the political class want. You can say that the referendum was advisory but it has been treated by Parliament and the government as binding.

The result is that you'll have a much angrier populace and you'll have handed all sorts of cause for dangerous rhetoric to Nigel Farage & Co who will have no qualms of using this ammunition regardless of what the consequences might be. The People's Vote counters much of this but not all of it. It will have to be the first step to radically changing much of British society at nearly every level if not every level.

McGiver · 12-08-2019 04:04PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Being serious, I don't think that this will ever stop. Brexit is by its very nature and extremist movement. Such movements require an inexhaustible supply of targets to maintain unity or else they become riven with factionalism.

I'm of the same opinion, such movements typically end with self-destruction, many times preceded by a general destruction of their environment (including and up to a war). Hope this lot will only self-destruct and won't cause some major destruction....

Strazdas · 12-08-2019 04:11PM

McGiver wrote: »

I'm of the same opinion, such movements typically end with self-destruction, many times preceded by a general destruction of their environment (including and up to a war). Hope this lot will only self-destruct and won't cause some major destruction....

Indeed, anything with a radical ideology attached is liable to self destruction. Usually the ideology becomes totally discredited and the followers fall away.

Very likely with Brexit.....the thing is built on lies and delusion.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Comments